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A Quick Glance At Real World Inflation
The Casey Report provides a useful glance at the real inflation currently ravaging items that are actually purchased by Americans, not those captured by the Fed's BLS statistics: "On average, our basic food costs have increased by an incredible 48% over the last year (measured by wheat, corn, oats, and canola prices). From the price at the pump to heating your stove, energy costs are up 23% on average (heating oil, gasoline, natural gas). A little protein at dinner is now 39% higher (beef and pork), and your morning cup of coffee with a little sugar has risen by 36% since last October." Of course, the ongoing deflation in items purchases requiring leverage will continue to skew the CPI so far south to make all those who bought 5 Year TIPS yesterday at negative yields end up losing money on the transaction.
Chart of the Week: Inflation in the Real World, by Jake Webber of Casey Report
As is often the case, there is a big difference between what the
government statistics are reporting and what’s going on in the real
world. According to the most recent inflation reading published by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), consumer prices grew at an annual rate
of just 1.1% in August.
The government has an incentive to distort CPI numbers, for reasons such
as keeping the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security payments
low. While there’s no question that you may be able to get a good deal
on a new car or a flat-screen TV today, how often are you really buying
these things? When you look at the real costs of everyday life, prices
have risen sharply over the last year. For simplicity’s sake, consider
the cash market prices on some basic commodities.
On average, our basic food costs have increased by an incredible 48%
over the last year (measured by wheat, corn, oats, and canola prices).
From the price at the pump to heating your stove, energy costs are up
23% on average (heating oil, gasoline, natural gas). A little protein at
dinner is now 39% higher (beef and pork), and your morning cup of
coffee with a little sugar has risen by 36% since last October.
You probably aren’t buying new linens or shopping for copper piping at
the hardware store every day, but I included these items to show the
inflationary pressures on some other basic materials that will likely
affect consumer prices down the road.
The jump in gold and silver prices illustrates that it’s not just
supply and demand issues driving the precious metals higher – the
decline in purchasing power of the dollar is also showing up in the
price of physical goods. It is because stashing wheat and cotton in the
garage is an impractical way to protect purchasing power that
investors are increasingly looking to protect themselves with the
monetary metals – a trend that is now very much in motion.
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Shhhhh. That's not a hedonically approved chart. No fair.
The BS, er, BLS data is what is going to burn every single sucker that bought those TIPS yesterday at a negative yield. Best sucker bet in the known universe.
Because when the facts come clean, those TIPS will yield no more than 0.10% to the "investors" who proclaimed inflation. It is not facts which determine CPI-U, it is FEELINGS and OPINIONS. That's why TIPS are bullshit investments.
+1.
Would not recommend TIPS to my worst enemy.
The BLS should be hit with a class action suit for FRAUD!! The CPI statistics are relied upon by many segments of the community for important decisions.
so that ends the Deflation/ Inflation argument - I'm a guessing.
Actually, the official CPI takes into account that most Americans are masochist due to being complicit in their government and owners to screw them up every single orifice. Therefore they must get some pleasure out of it too, which should naturally reflect in the CPI.
What about the 2032's with 3.375 coupon purchased at original issue slightly below par now priced @$141.50? Timing is everything johngaltfla; perceiving value is the art of investing.
Please give us what you perceive as underpriced in the market place. Thank you.
Hmmm, currently or in the past? The all time winner was Swiss Government Bonds in 2007.
Hmm, that is all commodities. Give out enough free money to specs and they pump up commodity prices. Does this equal inflation?
What about job income, are we seeing higher wages yet? If not, higher commodities are just going to squeeze those making the same (or less, more likely) than they were 5 years ago. Higher commodities in a dismal job market does not seem to automatically lead to inflation.
But nice work, Fed. Want to do lunch? It's free, right?
That's the usual response I get on reddit whenever I point out Gold is simply tracking the price development of all commodities; "THEY'RE ALL BUBBLES". Yeah, whatever.
Escape, did you check out the pics of your Avatar on Maxim Russia? Yikes - she's either been working out or the airbrush worked well. Hot stuff...
http://www.maximonline.ru/devushki/devushki-soblozhki/_article/anna-chap...
You can find the pics elsewhere, but here's a little video...
I actually reckon she looks better when she's not trying to look hot. My ex who was also Eastern European, shared this trait - of all the photos I ever took of her the best were the ones in which she didn't "prepare" for the cam...
That video does... erm... work, though.
The dollar was the bubble.
Well, maybe not bubbles (maybe not yet) but it does seem to me to be ARTIFICIAL.
Of course that semantic point may not make a whole hill of beans difference in the big scheme of things. But I do think jobs are important and that is where true recovery has to begin.
I don't think it's artificial at all. It's inflation. Pure and simple. Who on earth came up with the crazy idea that you can just print an unlimited amount of money without it having consequences needs his/her head examined.
Actually, thinking about it - Bernanke doesn't need his head examined. He's well aware of the consequences, but he does it anyway. Krugman, however...
There's a huge difference between printing money Zimbabwe style and expanding credit QE style in a system that is choking on credit. What I'd like to see is a 30 year commodities chart rather than a 1 year chart.
Yes, with QE1 you have a case, but that's no longer the objective of the c/overt monetization.
If the US says they don't need oil imports (15 million barrels or so) and has no need to borrow externally and has no reason to trade for goods and services then you'll see Benny inflate to Weimar. Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe and recently Argentina had some crucial similarities, they were isolated from the bond market and thus could print at will. How will the US pay for their oil needs? Will they trade their so called gold for oil? Will they forcefully import oil from Canada/ Mexico through an invasion? Deflation is preferable for the elites. The game can last a lot longer and it is very favorable for TPTB as they have transferred trillions of dollars to themselves, NOT main street. The looting will proceed via asset deflation and wages for the middle class will be decimated.
Part of the endgame for the feds is invasion of one or both of Mexico and Canada. It gives the generals a land war they can throw unemployed cannon fodder at, as well as a plausible cover for getting out of losing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Maybe this time the federal government can conquer Canada, but unfortunately for them Ottawa seems to be to the US armed forces (and Brits before them) as Moscow was to Napoleon and Hitler.
I disagree. I think inflation is infinitely preferential to the elite.
Deflation means a large amount of people will default on their debts, which the elite then won't get to collect on. This will translate into failing banks and businesses, most of whom are owned by the elite through bonds and equities, which translates into haircuts or even potentially complete losses. Furthermore, assuming static wages, the middle class with savings will get an increasing amount of purchasing power.
Inflation means since the elite have access to the newly minted Dollar bills before anyone else, they get a fraction more purchasing power than the rest of the population, they get to collect on debts, AND the purchasing power of the middle classes is transferred away from them.
Corn prices have doubled since August - I suspect - no, I know there are reasons besides inflation for this. Supply and demand still works.
Granted, it's not the ONLY reason, but when ALL commodities rise together the argument for inflation is definitely there.
The DOW Jones UBS commodity index peaked at near 240 in 2008, it's trading at 147 as of today, same as it was in 2004. It'll go down even more as deflationary forces take hold once QE2 is announced and the biggest sell the news event in the history of world finance takes place.
That looks a lot more in line with the prices at the grocer. And it also is a reminder that we really need to stock our deep freezer this weekend.
I sort of agree with you. Prices on dry goods with high commodity inputs (bread, cereals, pasta, etc.) don't seem to be climbing nearly as much (if at all) as the underlying commodities...protein however is another story. For example, frozen bag of chicken breasts at Wallyworld normally run $6.48 to $6.98...I paid $9.48 on Sunday.
Its so funny how everyone just goes along with whatever the article says without questioning the point of the article. Consumers don't buy raw commodities. They do buy the finished prodcut though. Its entirely possible even likely that the higher input costs are being absorbed by the producers and also off set by cost cutting and overhead reduction. This would result in the same price for consumers as a year ago even though inputs are up 48%. Raw inputs only make up a small % of the retail price usually anyway.
The way to measure this is in retail price changes not raw inputs. This has to be one of the most misleading articles I have read on ZH. It amazes me how no body else has brought this up but instead responded with some witty sheep mentality response. Question the Questioners people!
Hm, narrowing profit margins for producers. That sounds bullish.
Just because dollar price increases don't translate immediately to the consumer doesn't mean they are not affecting the economy. And one way or the other, we'll all eventually pay for it. The only ones who won't, are the ones with the first access to the free money being injected by the Fed. The higher up the dollar access chain you are, the less you gotta worry about your cost of living increasing and standard of living decreasing.
Until, of course, the dollar becomes worthless.
"Benny and the Jets" are tell'n ya they be targeting 2.0% core... Get the yield on the 5yr over divi's of the SP500 or unleaded nationwide over $3/gal and I get beared up. However, with niether the case... No can do!
With this in mind...Long tgt remains 1311-27ish Q1 or 2 of next year!
Seems pretty simple to me.
Hedonics, Tyler. When you can't afford wheat anymore, you're supposed to eat dirt, and the dirt costs the same as the wheat used to, so everything is fine.
I think you mean 'substitition'. But yeah, you're right. The idea that you'll just swap decent, healthy groceries like chicken breast for cheap, nasty sausages because they're cheaper is absolutely ridiculous.
Whoops, you're right, my bad.
Thanks for the correction.
White hots, those precooked bratworst with veal and pork and milk solids are usually more expensive than chicken, so choose your sausage more carefully in the future and you can upgrade your opinion of "sausage".
Tyler made special efforts to enlighten readers with the inflation argument 2 years ago.
The point being, the banks are sitting on a shitload of assets (MBS, CMBS). They want to sell at a profit and their friends at the Fed can make that happen.
If the traditional investment classes are in complete turmoil (equities) and the bank assets look cheap (everything is relative during hyperinflation) then people will choose the path of least resistance.
Is it time to renew your Realtors license? Or time to start a cable show that is a hybrid of Flip-my-House and Survivor?
Too bad they didn't include health care and college tuition.
Exactly what I was thinking.
Plus taxes and you have a more complete look at real inflation.
I hope the Banksters can afford the increase in those prices. They should have enough money left over to pay those property taxes on Lonk Gialant. Worse comes to worse they can sell the Bently leaving the wife with the Mercedes and BMW. Their answer is the Flat Tax, making them pay no more than you for everything they buy.
Biflation (as if this were news):
-Inflating real cost inputs
-Deflating real assets (incl incomes, housing)
Just check the CPI-PPI spread. Today's earnings showed ailing coporate margins in every developed economy. Take a look at Iceland for a glimpse of how bad biflation can get: 40% CPI, deflating incomes and housing
That's the QE2 banker tax.
Don't you guys know, commodities are volatile. That is why we have thrown them out of the index which is now only made up of housing and ipads.
C'mon if you stack the BS high enough... 2+2=5, 2+2=5, 2+2=5.
Ok I think I've got it, now.
"For simplicity’s sake, consider the cash market prices on some basic commodities."
quack!
I don't buy commodity wheat, I buy bread and shredded wheat at the grocery store. I haven't seen prices rise anything like this at my store.
(Whether they get passed on eventually will depend on whether they keep going up in the future).
You must really be fooled by the change in packaging sizes, then.
Per unit costs of finished food goods hasn't increased as much as commodity prices... but the increase is very, very significant in my part of the world.
At least that's what my wife says. :)
Assetman for the win... Retailers and producers, particularly grocers, are taking up slack in a lot of different ways. Reducing or eliminating coupons, moving to smaller packaging sizes, distributing the costs onto other items as long as they can, or just reducing their own margins on items you were already being charged and arm and a leg for.
But then, I doubt that many posters here really have that much of an idea of how much they're spending on groceries.
I do because I'm practically Bob Fuckin' Barker. Here's a sampling of increases I've seen:
- 1/2 Gal Milk from $1.99 -> $2.59 in 10 days
- Parmesan Cheese from $3.49 -> $5.35 in a month
- Jack Daniels from 86 Proof -> 80 Proof
- Sausage casings from $22 per 100yds to $39 per 100yds
SausagemakerWait a minute. GTFO. This is serious. They can raise the price of milk and cheese, but when they start messing with the alcohol...
We do not know how many people were let go in those factories that make bread and shredded wheat ....... We have already entered a negative feedback loop in economic terms.
Then you are blind. I have only seen a $.20-40 rise in bread dependinging on the week but about eight months ago the bagged (cheaper) frosted mini wheats my daughters love rose in price AND dropped 2.5 oz on pkg size.
I've got hydrothermal mineralized veins yielding 10oz/ton silver popping out of the earth all around my new hometown. Got some copper in there too at 10%. The equipment to mine it is a Bosch electric hammer and its accesories, a small generator and a payroll amounting to under $2,000 dollars (in local currency). The equipment adds up to about $3,000 with everything included.
paradise!
Working a gold vein (won't tell you how much that's yielding!) with pneumatic hammers and 185cfm compressor, accumulating me gold for the day after!
Well done zaknick!! There's no fever like gold fever! ;) All the paper in the world will never substitute for it...
You in the US?
And in other news. The documentary type cable networks are airing wall to wall reality shows about pawn shops, motorcycle builders, and junk pickers in an attempt to convince average Americans that their mundane assets purchased on credit have (or will have) incredible value. So everything is not lost. Inflation is good and normal. Tomatoes may cost $6/lb, but my 3rd generation I-pod will be a treasured antique someday.
These networks used to have documentaries about history, science, politics, culture.
Lol. I have noticed the weird junk TV trend too. It started with Antique Road Show. Now it has gone apeshit.
On the other hand, you've got shows like Hoarders. Nothing against the show, but it's making that compulsion a household name. Now, when the MSM starts talking about "gold hoarders" or "food hoarders," people will think about that show and be aghast.
Exactly. Lots of the antique/pawn shows are about the depression era culture. You saved everything because you did not know if you could afford to re-purchase it or if it would even be available. SouthPark covered the horder aspect of it recently as well.
It is going to be fascinating. The pawn show had a revolutionary war era bond that said it was printed on American paper. But the watermark revealed the Crown of England. Horde your Chinese made goods and re-brand them as american when the currency war hits main street.
EXACTAFUCKILY!!!!!
Lay the ground work for the future!
Don't worry, Bazooka Ben will land us dead nuts right on +2% CPI--he was a child prodigy you know.
Nothing to see here, move along.
1 year ok, but do this 3, 4, 5 years in a row, serdom and fuedal lords.
I can tell you that my cost of living here in the DC area hasn't increased at all over the past few years. Gas up a bit, clothing down, nat gas down, food still very cheap, mortgage ARM interest expense way down....
The seat of the empire is always the last to crumble. The king and his court must be kept happy.
Funny, Oblama just pointed out in the last day or so, by way of explaining why he hasn't been able to bring his wondrous touch to every troubled aspect of this troubled realm, that he ain't the King, he's just POTUS.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/10/25/obama_tells_latinos_i_...
If the fuckin' Congress would get the hell out of the way, his liberal utopia would already be upon us plebes!! He's such a competent and talented fellow, he must find that terribly frustrating. Guy is such a complete boob.
Then you either don't shop for your own groceries, can't understand weights and measures or DC has there own food processing facilities seperate from the rest of the nation.
Nonsense. Food is as cheap as it has ever been. Anyone can easily eat/drink healthily for $4/day, if not less. I can walk into my neighborhood Dollar Tree right now and buy a full, frozen chicken breast for $1, a huge bag of mixed frozen veggies for $1, loaf of whole wheat bread for $1, 1/2 pound trail mix $1. Multivitamin 5 cents, tapwater essentially free, and so on.... On the West Coast, it is even easier. Walk in to 99CentOnly store, pick up 5lbs of potatoes, a nice red table wine, some frozen fish, and a bag of whole wheat bagels for $4.
That's near nothing, pocket change. When in history has one been able to eat store-bought, healthy food for less? Any beggar can scrape up $4 in 15 minutes in this town, but why bother here in foodstampistan?
With minimal diligence, one can eat well for near nothing today in the USA, with zero help from our feckless Big Brother. If you think food is expensive, I think you are lazy.
99 cent stores have raised their prices to $0.9999 and the natives got restless.
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/22/business/la-fi-0722-99-cents-only-20100722
that's nuts man.
"if you think food is expensive" is a statement beyond clueless. There are one in eight Americans (the per capita kind) getting USDA Food Stamp assistance through their LINK cards. Just because you can't see one-eighth of the country in a food line doesn't mean it isn't happening. Food is way too expensive for these families, they need it to be given to them, when all other necessities are added to the tab. That is what homeless is all about and not making the mortgage payment. if you think food is inexpensive, you're deluded.
Anyone with their wits about them can easily eat for $4/day or less in the USA.
That IS NOT expensive - today, or historically. To believe otherwise is to fool oneself.
Or they could just eat you, that'd be even cheaper, probably more nutritious too.
That'd be a knuckle sandwich.
Hey Zaknick, need a geologist ????
Are you a geologist? I think I've got a VMS identified (there are three about 60 kilometers south). I just read that most of the gold is created below the water table in sulfides. Does this apply to other types of intrusion related gold deposits?
I'm sending samples to the lab for rock and mineral identification so I can know exactly what type of deposit I'm working. I would like to understand the local geology.
shoot me an email
zak.nick at gmail
Those 6% 50yr GS Bonds will take care of my retirement!!
Tyler, grow up. Your deflation thesis is complete bullshit. The 30 year bond is collapsing as I write this. The end is near. the bond collapse is very close, and the result will be catastrophic carnage globally. The short bond trade is now Tyler as the Fed is now fucked (no matter how many trilliosn they try to inject - morons).
The U.S. will buy $4 trillion of its own debt.
That's not gonna keep the price down?
You want real inflation go to the grocery store and open your eyes.
Yep, and that doesn't even include the 20oz container that has now morphed into a 17.5oz size, all for the same fah-ricken price.
+1
.....those who have eyes can see
Baloney. Try harder. Walk past your usual grocery store, into an Aldi or a Bottom Dollar, and a Dollar Tree or a 99 Cents Only store.... Try just a little bit, and food is near free.
Hmmmm...lead coated spam.
You do realize the food quality is lower, right?
Industrial farming, while it produces higher volumes, it also produces lower nutritional value. Not to mention all the chemicals involved, and especially not to mention government farm subsidies and 'globalization'.
If you looked at prices of local organic foods with high nutritional value - the way food used to be grown everywhere - over time, those prices have increased.
You should add two catagories: health insurance and taxes.
prices are rising, I have 3 deep freezers i've bought over the past 18 mths. All the same the 1st $399.99 the last $475, & the food they are filled with has also increased. Shit we need to surive will continue upward. I'm starting to see some pretty good deals on Craigslist for shit you don't need to survive.
Those who say costs are NOT rising must be...
-not buying food for a family
-not buying health, dental insurance
-not paying real estate taxes
-not buying booze other than mad dog or really, really cheap wine
-not paying for cable
-not gasing up their vehicle or maintaining it
-not taking public transportation
-not buying coffee and/or a muffin in the morning
-not going out to eat, and I am not talking about McDs (even though their prices are now rising)
So, my only logical conclusions why these people do not recognize this forced debasement MUST be that they are living in their mom's basement, sponging off friends, family, and/or society.
Commune living and family dining is back in style, baby. Bye, bye, American dream.
CPI-U *Google translator* FUCK-U.
Price of the bullshit is still nearly free.
So just don't eat, spend, or go anywhere, and there's no inflation!
Investment buying demand for these commodities isn't the same thing as inflation... inflation is a monetary phenomenon.. the prices for these commodities will ultimately collapse when it becomes clear there isn't enough demand by end users of finished goods to support these price levels. Consumer demand is the key. The money going into these commodities is partly funny money which represents multiple claims on underlying real wealth. Once the paper losses are realized and the money supply contracts, then these commodity prices will fall.
Tomorrow...when the US dollar is rallying, I want all you f'd up fraud posters to kiss my a$$.
I want you to do this because I take the time to read all of your cr@p...and it bores me.
Tomorrow, when a three month currency trend reverses to reveal all of your inane posting BS...I want a kiss...direct and wet on my arse.
So for those of you in Hong Kong...ready your pucker you uckers.....
The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow
There'll be sun!
Just thinkin' about
Tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs,
And the sorrow
'Til there's none!
What kind of a fucking weirdo can't bring himself to write actual profanity, yet fantasizes about people slobbering on his ass (sorry, a$$)?
We'll talk about your repression and ass-mouth fixation another time, but for now, I'm curious how you define "dollar rally"? Is that like back to 88, like it was June? Back to 92, like 2006? Back to 120, like 2002? or just back above 78?
Ya know what? Rather than answer, why not just go sit on some pudding or something. That should give your stupid "arse" the wetness it desires.
Can someone explain to me why anyone would buy TIPS at negative yield? I thought the whole point of the "IPS" was to guarantee positive yield.
It's to guarantee an inflation protected yield. If Uncle Sam says there's no inflation...there goes your yield.
One caveat - if we were to have hyperinflation... then you are likely looking at a defaulted US dollar... so your TIPS are worthless.
Just a quick public service reminder:
Your average trash man has a more challenging job description than Ben Bernanke.
The Fed is supposed to pursue "price stability." Not just "stable house prices" or "stable stock prices." The Fed applauded the housing bubble (more accurately, created and sustained it), which was....wait for it...price instability.
Now they want price stability in houses, so they are ignoring price instability everywhere else.
Oh yeah, this will end well...
I must rise in dispute of the assertions of "real world"-ness of these prices.
First of all MY food stuff prices haven't gone up that much; not even close. Author appears to be assuming that commodity prices will inescapably be reflected at the retail level. Given the rule of Retained Value, that is unlikely. Unclever middle men eat costs all the time (just ask your banker).
Second, the author excludes "things that require leverage" from his religious expectation of prompt inflation . . . while using Com-freakin'-Modities as an example of his case! HelLO!? Trading commodities "requires" almost as much leverage as buying a house. So if he was right about leverage bying the decoupling factor, they would be going down as well.
I would invite him to pick one sheet of music, and stick with it.
(bows head, awaiting the junk axe)
I followed sugar since a year and a bit ago, this comparison is somewhat disingenuous as SB had a selloff from about 29 1/2 to where it double-bottomed at 14, so now we're only back to recent highs and everyone is taking a profit. Mean reversion FTW
There is no inflation, because the CPI is calculated for a central banker's life style: Don,t include housing, because you have a government house, don't include gasoline because you're always driven everywhere, and don,t include food because you're always asked out to lunch. Apart from that it sticks entirely to reality.
someone send this link to David Rosenberg / Mish Shedlock..
those #ssholes thinks it doesnt matter..
price of Ipads is less so deflation is around the corner..
alx
Funny how gas just topped $3 per gallon again and the media isn't here to cry about it now that their man is in the white house.
Cable, though, it's different depending on where you are. I can't afford it with my other bills, but I keep getting advertisements for it. The teaser rates have been stuck at $99 for 2 years now. My parents' cable bill, though, is fucking skyrocketing.
I can't believe nobody is challenging this fool on his blog comments: http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/08/13/deflation-and-negative-...
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I hope the Banksters can afford the increase in those prices. They should have enough money left over to pay those property taxes on Lonk Gialant. Worse comes to worse they can sell the Bently leaving the wife with the Mercedes and BMW. Their answer is the Flat Tax, making them pay no more than you for everything they buy.
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I hope the Banksters can afford the increase in those prices. They should have enough money left over to pay those property taxes on Lonk Gialant. Worse comes to worse they can sell the Bently leaving the wife with the Mercedes and BMW. Their answer is the Flat Tax, making them pay no more than you for ev baltimore hotel reservations - spirit airline - princess cruises - disney cruise - dallas apartments - flights to phoenix - flights to rome
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