It was just a few weeks ago that I wrote
about some evidence that I was seeing that suggested the real estate
market in my neck of the woods (North of NY on the Hudson) was
stabilizing. I was aware of a number of transactions for upper end homes
that looked encouraging. To be sure this price action was at levels
that were about 40% below the froth of 2007. Supply and demand seemed to
be leveling out at around 2002 values. So we have had a lost decade. But I was a bit encouraged by what I saw as evidence of increasing demand.
Now the update. Two of the deals I referred to have cratered. The
reason? No mortgage money? Not the case, these were all cash buyers.
Sellers remorse? Hardly, not after two years on the market.
The reason for the busted deals? It was the Indian Point Nuke that did them in.
Both of the deals I know of (and apparently a few others) had the happy
buyers walking as the homes in question were inside of the ten-mile
radius of a 40 year old and badly flawed nuke. Apparently the events in
Japan have caused some re-thinking.
Some RE agents are taking the issue head on. Rather than hiding the fact that there is a nuke nearby they are highlighting it as an “Upside”. They provide a copy of the following story suggesting that Governor Cuomo will soon close IP and when it does all that depressed real estate is going to pop by 20%.
Proving once again that real estate agents, like car dealers and bankers, have no shame.
Cuomo’s comment from New York Magazine:
"It should be closed. This plant in this proximity to the city was never a good risk."
I have been pounding the table over the issue of banking secrecy for
some time. I don’t like when Potentates can stash huge dollars in secret
accounts. I don’t like it when drug dealers, pirates, dirty politicians
or anyone else has a convenient and safe place to hide money. I think
these policies work against the common good. When a guy like Ghaddafi
can stash the odd $20 billion in US banks there is something wrong.
I have been amazed at the level of opposition I get on this theme. There
is a large group out there that believes that no regulations are good
regulations. I am no fan of regulations, but it is equally clear to me
that we need some rules that are followed. If we don’t, we just promote
and encourage lawlessness. Sorry.
For those that think I am off in left field with this notion I provide you with a letter from those good folks at the American Banking Association.
They are doing everything they can to keep foreign accounts in the
dark. So those that think secret accounts are such a good idea are
actually in bed with the likes of the ABA. I think both of them should
change their tune. At a minimum they ought to consider who they are
sleeping with.
Link to letter. Some snippets:
The Baltic Dry index has bounced 50% from 1000 to 1500 in the past
month. Other indexes have followed suit. I asked a friend in shipping if
this a true turnaround or just a dead cat bounce in an index that fell
75% (peak to trough) in 10 months.
I got an interesting response. In this fellow's opinion the improved
outlook can be attributed to a big deal by the Carlyle Group (DC hedge
fund). Bloomberg link
The Carlyle Group, the world’s second-biggest private equity fund, said it’s forming a venture to buy more than $5 billion in container, dry bulk, and tanker vessels as well as other shipping assets.
So is this a good sign for the industry? Yes and no was the answer.
Anytime an entity commits big capital like this it will affect the whole
industry. Pure supply and demand suggests ships are gong to up in
value. So that seems like good news.
But the other side from the Greek shipper:
“For
years we have all made a fortune shipping raw materials and other goods
to and from China. The Chinese know this. The China/Carlyle deal will
create competition that now does not now exist. I am afraid that our
biggest customer will no longer need our ships. Long-term this will be
bad for us.”
Chinese dominance of the global economy is growing every week. Nothing is going to slow that ship down. It's written in stone.
Giant Fans or maybe a HAARP type system would change the winds and blow FUKU.
Regarding the "dirty" money in domestic bank accounts, consider this. The IRS and State Department have been roaming the world, strong-arming other countries to hand over information on Americans with foreign bank accounts. The net result is that many foreign banks now refuse to do business with Americans so they don't have to bother with the reporting requirements, and the money stays here. Perversely, American banks don't seem to care where the money comes from, and neither does the IRS -- as long as it stays here.
Soft capital controls are now in place, I'll let you guess their next move.
Exactly RW. A European online broker I had an account with once forced me to sell all my positions end of December with one week notice because of some new regulation the US had enacted to become active January 1st. I believe that was end of 2003, I could look it up.
And Bruce, it's nice to pull out the most extreme case as an example and ignore all else - but for everything you do or want to be done, there are always trade-offs.
Please explain: what level of secrecy/privacy is OK to you?
Bruce, I don't know if you have clarified your feelings about this in the past. Please forgive me if you have. You say you are no fan of regulations. I happen to be a huge fan of regulations, and I don't care one iota about the big group of people who might feel otherwise. They are either greedy sociopaths or just plain wrong. There's a big group of people in this country who believe in the right to carry a loaded weapon in public, who don't believe in background checks at gun shops, who believe Obama should be impeached for being a socialist, who believe that pledging allegiance to a Christian God should be the first requirement of all U.S. citizens. I disagree with them, and it wouldn't occur to me to apologize for that.
So, my question is, why are secret bank accounts bad, but secret transactions, secret accounting methods and secret trading activity acceptable? What is the ethical difference between Gaddafi being allowed to stash $20 billion in U.S. banks and the opacity of hedge fund activity, or of allowing hundreds of trillions of impossibly complex, deceptive and interconnected derivatives transactions to take place over the counter, in the dark? We are talking about private money, here, in both cases. You can't raise objections to banking secrecy only with respect to money you consider dirty without defining dirty, and that's a bunny rabbit hole if ever there was one.
See, I don't think there should be any such thing as a secret when it comes to an offshore account or financial activity of any kind. If a deal can only take place in the dark, then it shouldn't take place at all. Tax havens should be shut down with extreme prejudice. Swiss bank accounts should all be forced open at the point of a very big gun.
How do you draw the line that says "this is how much intrusion is allowed, but only this much"? Who gets to draw that line? Right now, banks and the very wealthy draw that line, and what has resulted is repetitive economic catastrophe, a dramatic widening of the wealth gap, hundreds upon hundreds of ponzi schemes by hedge fund managers or pseudo-hedge fund managers across the country over the past 10 years, a spectacular increase in the evasion of taxes, and to pigs like Mubarak and Gaddafi and Ben-Ali engaging in massive amounts of theft.
We have to use common sense, and ask ourselves, "does this addiction to the right of secrecy open the door to unethical or criminal behavior?", and if it does, we have to bravely close that door.
Where does he says that's OK? Just because he didn't address all of your bullet points doesn't mean that Bruce approves by omission.
I'm not saying he does. But Bruce is one of the best thinkers and writers on zerohedge, and he actually responds to comments and I want to hear his take on every issue that bugs me.
So, to clear up any confusion, Bruce, you are one of my heroes, alright? I'm not here to attack you like some others on this thread.
If everything is brought out into the open what would we do with all the unemployed lawyers?
As I recall Willie S. had an excellent suggestion in, was it, "Merchant of Venice" or Henry the VI? Maybe neither--gettin old. Milestones
Don’t overly complicate the issue. All that needs to be done is for the sovereign to make money and money accountability a public good (or common good as Bruce names it) and not the domain of private interests.
History is replete with examples of private banking interest taking over the power of national money and bankrupting that country to the ground.
The cost of building new ships will probably go up, (the cost of everything industrial will go higher, which is why Cat is doing so well. Oil rigs, and gold mines, it's all going to cost more, and if government has to pay for it that will cost us more) and so the value of existing shipping goes up. Can we say the same about existing nuclear power plants, if new permits and new building costs are prohibitive? The problem may be that Indian Point isn't going to close. (Analogy to having a liquor license, once you have it you don't let it go, and new ones are hard to get)
The problem of hot money belongs to Bernanke doesn't it? We can stop the hot money any time. This AM some voices are saying that despite the best efforts of the UN(atO)bam-crats, that the leader of Libya may well survive poltiically. That would be a PR disaster for Obama, especially if he has to spill US blood. Republicans will crucify him in 2012. And if any or most of the casualties are white, that goes double.
Not looking good, the Forbes columnist sees hyperinflation taking hold, and if I thought there was hyperinflation I would want to keep some powder dry, just because Bernanke won't be able to reflate that bubble.
"and so the value of existing shipping goes up."
I don't think that we can be so sure of that... On the other side of the scale is the cost of oil. As oil cost (read "affordability") goes up there will also be a reduced demand for shipping (well, I'm sure that people would "demand" for there not to be, but the increased costs would be too high for the masses to absorb*).
* Keep in mind that it's total volume that allows something to continue/grow. It's the "economies of scale" thing; and, as I've been saying, "economies of scale" can also work in reverse.
Many years ago I was on the verge of investing in railroads. When Buffett did and I had not yet done so, I was thinking that I had been right and that I blew my opportunity. Well... yeah, there was a bit of a spike in RR activity (a previous neighbor worked for the RR and I'd check in with him how business was doing) with coal transport (for shipment to China!), but that seems to have subsided (China WILL cool and this will retrace any/all gains). Reduction here will result in increased per-unit shipped costs of all goods. Think of trucking picking up a larger part of the road tax as POVs drop off (due to the masses being unable to afford to travel as they once did). It becomes a negative spiral: contraction, though I've got no idea what the investment/$$ numbers will look like.
bruce is coming up with some of the best here on ZH lately.
Another great piece Bruce and I especially like this subject..."For those that think I am off in left field with this notion I provide you with a letter from those good folks at the American Banking Association. They are doing everything they can to keep foreign accounts in the dark".
I remember reading in the LA Times a couple of summers ago about a private jet that was used by the CIA in their non-existing rendition flights, that had crashed flying in from Mexico right over the boarder in the US. When fire fighters got to the scene, guess what they found burning on that plane? Seven tons of cocaine. The reason I bring it up is because if there is a greater need for transparency in banking it should especially be true for government operations. Rouge or not, even for politicians who for decades have hidden funds off shore. I feel kind of sorry for those over the age of 65 because you've lived long enough to realize that nothing ever changes. The bullshit game of geo-politics and one up manship continues, we still play the spy vs spy game and human nature along with greed will never change. Hopefully greater transparency will provide us with some level of security, but when you come right down to the short hairs, if you want to hide something, you'll find a way to do it. After all, someone must be making a shit load of money selling all that heroine out of the Afghan hills while we have one of the largest armies in the world dying there to make sure those shipments keep flowing.
Anytime the Company is operating in an area they take over and/or dominate the drug trade, or any other highly lucrative gansta business for that matter, sex slaves what have you. Its just how they roll. I guess rogue is just going to be spelled rouge from now on...lol...blame it on the net (somebody get a czar over here, can we get a czar for that please) :-)
PS- hedgies, I am starting a petition to the Vatican, we need to get The Teleprompter canonized, once you start chucking missiles into other nations on a whim ("there may, unfortunately be some civilian casualties...") The Nobel Peace Bling just ain't big enough baby.
wandering around and stumbled on this"
"In higher doses, radioisotopes also help treat disease."
Has anyone notified those who have died from over-exposure of this break-through?
We're talking the about the consequences of un-controlled/un-controllable actions. The person hanging on the to the tail of the tiger can claim success for his/her grip...
Diffent scenarios can happen. I foresee the end of global trade, where Canada and the US no longer allow imports from China and Mexico is no longer part of NAFTA. Perhaps there will be a war with China. Besides, the Global Economy can collapse to unforseen levels on it's own violition. I tried to warn people about a possible Tokyo earthquake and Tyler or whomever pulled it. There will be many more, in Japan and around the world. Good luck to anyone who buys shipping fleets with the future economic enviornment that is unlikely to unfold. Plus I dislike the Carlyle Group so it will be lots of fun to see them lose big time. Psychopaths have blind spots, and delude themselves into thinking their invulnerable. Like the banksters, they will be going down.
REMEMBER "deep throat"???????? FOLLOW THE MONEY.
Checkout the ownership of the Group. Check out the party and group affiliations.
Check out the relationships to and with owned oil fields and manufacturers.
Check out the smell of war in the air.
Check out the method of transporting supplies and gear to the military front lines.
Now check out the number of young men and women with no jobs, no hope of finding one, their bills stare at them and the promise of a military job with no cut backs. " We will create jobs" but....no one ever said where did they?
Now you know why they bought the ships. The mean spirited hate atmosphere grows everyday. There is money to be made.
Look and you will find the answers in plain view, why hide them when so few read and are easily sold any new faith.
"so it [Carlyle Group] will be lots of fun to see them lose big time."
No fun being around a LARGE wounded animal...
Global trade will continue, it'll only be less commercialized as subsidies will be slowly withdrawn (to the horror of many international corporations).
I seek only to adjust to the shifting tides; I take no pleasure or profit in the shifting sands, as I am here only to observe, to exist, until I no longer...
"Tyler or whomever pulled it."
ZH never censors or "pulls" posts. Tyler explained a couple of weeks ago that the database severs literally overheat, causing missing or double posts typically.
Thanx for the information. Didn't know that, but I try to read everything here!
" I am afraid that our biggest customer will no longer need our ships."
Yea, it sucks to lose your job to China. Welcome to the end game of globalization-the lost of 500+ years of Western domination and the wealth that comes with it.
In a more or less open world financial system, wealth is like water, it seeks equilibrium. Welcome to the harsh side of financial natural selection eg. law of the jungle.
+1
There is no financial law of the fittest operating in the current global economy but only the secrecy and manipulation of a global banking oligarchy that is vying for the biggest power grab the history of the world has ever known.
"There is no financial law of the fittest operating in the current global economy"
And what IF this is the result (I'd say it's the "natural" outcome/progression) of the "financial law of the fittest?"
Power looks to consolidate and then protect itself...
I'm afraid that our ideologies cannot hold up in the real world.
++
Chris whalen interview, concerning banks and mortgages.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/19_Chris_Whalen.html
Thanks for the link. Chris Whalen is always a great interview.
Yep, Bruce is a great read, Chris a great listen...
Talking Heads- Stop Making Sense :-) Excellent interview!
On the topic of banking secrecy, what business does the Internal Revenue Service have to demand under the threat of force to disclose the names of account holders residing in another country? For simply that undesirable people may be using banks to store money? Shameful business practices and violations of the law are mutually exclusive of each other and this government has not shown competency enough to know the difference.
The banks themselves can close these accounts and return the money to these people with a simple note that reads: "We have determined through our investigations that doing business with you further would damage the reputation of the bank and the value to its shareholders. We will return all funds in full and have no further obligation to serve these accounts or pay interest." That would require bankers to think beyond AUM and more toward desirable business practices. Such is the value of principled behavior.
The IRS exists only as goons for the Federal Reserve, itself in existance in direct violation of our Constitution. Both were birthed together by foreign intruders and grifters, the IRS being injected into the Constitution as an amendment -- just to make it nice and official.
Both are controlled by foreign central bankers and domestic bought-off traitors.
To make sure we go along with the scam, and keep donating to the central banker parasites who collect our earnings via taxes so as to pay for wars, seizure of resources, social control, and murder of pesky adversaries, etc., they have cleverly bought off legislators, who for decades have dutifully written and passed laws for their masters, (and still do) and carefully include penalties for non-compliance with the scam, just in case the peasants balk.
For this the traitors are amply rewarded.
Their first great scam success of the 20th century was getting us into WW1 which they planned in the 1890's so as to seize the monetary systems of Europe. To do this they had to quickly collapse the four Empires together, and that required a war. The monarchs did not want to hand over the treasury keys, you see, so the central bankers had no choice but to kill and destroy everything and rebuild to their own liking.
The best part was that they left the people and nation of Germany holding the bag, taking the blame, and paying the penalty.
How's that for a fabulous scam!
In fact, they had so much fun and made so much money off the carnage that they planned another one even bigger and better a few years later and guess what?
They used the same nation again and got away with it a second time! And made even more money! They are so smart! And nobody knows! Hahaha! They are so smart!
And they own the news networks which don't dare whisper a word without first begging permission from them. Everything is just perfect!
The scam format works, and there is no reason to think that they have any intention of stopping. Expect more of the same stunts from them and their goons.
Hope that answers your question.
The IRS exists only as goons for the Federal Reserve, itself in existance in direct violation of our Constitution. Both were birthed together by foreign intruders and grifters, the IRS being injected into the Constitution as an amendment -- just to make it nice and official.
Both are controlled by foreign central bankers and domestic bought-off traitors.
To make sure we go along with the scam, and keep donating to the central banker parasites who collect our earnings via taxes so as to pay for wars, seizure of resources, social control, and murder of pesky adversaries, etc., they have cleverly bought off legislators, who for decades have dutifully written and passed laws for their masters, (and still do) and carefully include penalties for non-compliance with the scam, just in case the peasants balk.
For this the traitors are amply rewarded.
Their first great scam success of the 20th century was getting us into WW1 which they planned in the 1890's so as to seize the monetary systems of Europe. To do this they had to quickly collapse the four Empires together, and that required a war. The monarchs did not want to hand over the treasury keys, you see, so the central bankers had no choice but to kill and destroy everything and rebuild to their own liking.
The best part was that they left the people and nation of Germany holding the bag, taking the blame, and paying the penalty.
How's that for a fabulous scam!
In fact, they had so much fun and made so much money off the carnage that they planned another one even bigger and better a few years later and guess what?
They used the same nation again and got away with it a second time! And made even more money! They are so smart! And nobody knows! Hahaha! They are so smart!
And they own the news networks which don't dare whisper a word without first begging permission from them. Everything is just perfect!
The scam format works, and there is no reason to think that they have any intention of stopping. Expect more of the same stunts from them and their goons.
Hope that answers your question.
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of freedom. It is the argument of Tyrants. It is the creed of slaves." William Pitt the younger.
Politics: the conduct of public affairs for private advantage. A. Bierce
Criminal Banksters taking deposits from Criminal Foreigners ?
Business as usual.
Agree!! Just dealing with in-laws. Milestones
Agreed. Even though I appreciate the information in the article, I dont think Bruce fathoms the total corruption of the whole banking scam private and 'public' and the fractional reserve money smoke and mirror show. Why even mention the tip of the ice berg?
Didn't the tsunami take a lot of capacity off the market?
You should quit carping about IP ... your life is at greater risk any day on the Taconic or Hutch, and as for the value of the property, it is only a matter of time before the neighbourhood is overrun by the likes of those who have overrun Drug-Haven and Bridgeport, and parts of Westchester county (you are living in the middle of a demographic time bomb that is more detrimental to the value of your housing investment than the potential nuclear bomb just down the road).
It's only a matter of time before the United States of America is overrun by the likes of those.... I'd say the process is nearly complete at this point - focusing on metropolitan areas nationwide. Cosmopolitan indeed!
"likes of those" what? What are you are talking about?
Tks for the cheery thoughts. I will forward them to the local RE agents....
The Greeks will probably dump their aging fleets and to to the beach for 5-7 years and wait for Carlyle to blow up and pick up their ships for cheap. They cycle starts anew.
tell your local RE agents to "duck" .....shit about to hit the fan again this time next year prices another 15-20% leg down
Ying & Yang
I could see that going the other direction though on shipping for the short term. While DRYS is a wicked piece of shit company wise after decided they have no core business in shipping (strangely) there are around four other companies kicking around that are cheap as shit right now.
And Japan is going to need...well...everything.