Quotes From 1929-1930: Buy, Buy, Buy

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Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:21 | 291637 Postal
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We have always been at war with Eastasia...

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:33 | 291658 Selah
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CRAP! I thought we have always been at war with Eurasia!

Thank you for correcting me on this.

Hate Week will be much better now...

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:22 | 291639 bugs_
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"a permanently high plateau"

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:25 | 291642 Cookie
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Buy, buy, buy...

Buy gold

Buy bullets

Buy adult diapers


Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:25 | 291644 rubearish10
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Hey Hey, market oversold, buy it!

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:30 | 291654 AnonymousMonetarist
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 A couple more...

"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash." 
- Irving Fischer, September 1929

"A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability. We are not facing protracted liquidation."
- Irving Fischer, November 1929


Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:45 | 291683 Mad Max
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Cramer's predecessor?

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:17 | 291719 reading
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more like the Dick Bove of 1929

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:33 | 291802 hedgeless_horseman
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"Honey, I hear things are better out in California." -Grandpa

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:35 | 291661 lsbumblebee
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"Buy Anaconda Copper!"

- Grandpappy Cramer

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:48 | 291859 Bear
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Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:41 | 291670 Gimp
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80 years ago the Ivy League Economist had it wrong, nothing has changed, do not listen to these fools.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:46 | 291677 Prof Gulliver
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"600-840 On The S&P"

 David Rosenberg, May 25, 2009.

"On March 9th [2009], there was much more upside; today at 892, quite the opposite."




Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:47 | 291689 Commander Cody
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Fed: 1, Rosie: 0; for now.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:48 | 291767 ghostfaceinvestah
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Rosie's got to give it up - there is no deflation.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:59 | 291881 cougar_w
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Or rather there is inflation of the things you do need and deflation of the things you don't need, and at the moment these are just nearly balancing out.

Ignore the net response of a dynamic system. Pay attention to the gears.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:05 | 291700 solgundy
Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:09 | 291701 Bam_Man
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"Buy Consolidated Lint and sell Amalgamated Dust."



Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:33 | 291746 BS Inc.
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You know what's gonna be awesome? The look on your face when you realize that all those capital gains you've got from being long the last year are not going to be yours to keep. They'll be taxed out the wazoo and, in the end, you'll be as dirt poor as those who've been bearish the whole time. Only, because you thought the "all clear" sign had been given, not only will you be dirt poor, you won't have prepared for the hard times ahead.

Chew on that for a while and see if you're still feelin' snarky.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:27 | 291826 economicmorphine
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Replace bull with bear and the comments on this board are eerily reminiscent of late last February.  Take it for what it's worth.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 21:33 | 292451 Pure Evil
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My momma always told me, "Snarky is as snarky does"


Stalin - Man of Snarks

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:42 | 291758 AnonymousMonetarist
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The struggle of virtue and vice is writ large as the debate between deflationistas and debasionistas. Ones' lens depends on what one means by ones' ends. The deflationistias mean that deflation is the midwife of hyperinflation. The debasionistas mean that America's resilient wealth exporting machine will import higher asset values. The former pines for reason before farce, the latter embraces the tragedy.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:59 | 291880 Bear
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He'll be wrong ... until he's right

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:04 | 291893 cougar_w
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He'll be wrong as long as the markets are not cut loose to react as appropriate.

Smart people being consistently wrong about obvious things is a sign that the normal laws are no longer in play.

Either we now get new laws, or the old ones return with a vengence.

Place your bets, gentlemen.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:16 | 291717 gjp
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In 1929-1930, with stock quotes in newspapers and rudimentary telecommunication, they couldn't hold it together much more than a year.

In 2008-2010, the debt bubble is exponentially larger, trading is in microseconds, yet it's holding together into the third year after the crash.

What will it take to kill it?  How much longer can it go on?

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:07 | 291903 cougar_w
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The market is no longer a function of value determinations. This situation may continue indefinitely. If so then the market concept will evaporate and in the future we won't be discussing it any more. Just like we no longer discuss the departure schedule of the Titanic.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:46 | 291765 ghostfaceinvestah
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Rosie just official lost all my respect.  Any economist who can't see the difference between 1929 and today is useless.

The difference is not in the direction of the economy, I have no doubt it will get worse.

The difference is the measuring stick.  Today, the USD is tied to nothing.

Even a comparison to Japan is useless.  Bernanke is willing to be far more reckless with our fiat currency than the Japanese ever were.  Debasing the currency by more than 50% (as measured by the Fed balance sheet) is something the Japanese wouldn't even do.

The economy will continue to deteriorate, but the market could continue to climb, and it could even climb exponentially.  See Zimbabwe.



Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:02 | 291785 BS Inc.
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The difference is the measuring stick.  Today, the USD is tied to nothing.

I used to think that, but then I was persuaded by the folks who argue that when we went off the gold standard, we implicitly went on an oil standard.

Debasement in that context has diminishing marginal returns. What are people going to do, spend every free minute outside of work topping off their gas tanks before gas prices go up in another 30 minutes? That will do wonders for any industry other than the locking gas cap industry, for sure.

A Zimbabwe happens because it's not a modern industrial economy which runs on oil and isn't very far from barter anyway.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:33 | 291958 Carina
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Thu, 04/08/2010 - 19:16 | 292282 equity_momo
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Dont be a numbnut. You cant be the Worlds reserve currency and not be tied to anything. Think about it.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:50 | 291770 Astute Investor
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"Everybody's got plans...until they get hit"

- Mike Tyson -

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:58 | 291777 Marzen
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lol, and his plan was to bit off Holyfield's ears! US may do the same metaphorically speaking.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:00 | 291782 Jim in MN
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Here's a nice site that reads the WSJ from the corresponding day in 1930-31.


From January 16, 1931: One broker reports about 30% fewer clients than at the 1929 bull market peak; about 15% were "cleaned out" and 15% took their money out of stocks. In 1929, 99 7/8% of his clients were bullish; 75% remained bullish until the fall of 1930; now, 70% are bearish.

Extend>>>>>>>pretend>>>>>>>>>defend>>>>>>>>>>upend>>>>>>>>>>>The End

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:10 | 291795 Anonymouse
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I am currently reading "The Great Depression: A Diary" by Benjamin Roth that I saw reference on ZH a couple of weeks ago.  Just 40-50 pages in but it is highly recommended.  It is the diary of a lawyer in Youngstown, OH writing in his journal about the events he saw as the depression unfolded.

It is eerily similar today.  So much that I almost wonder if it was not written now.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:25 | 291820 economicmorphine
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Yeah, no deflation, except of course for that $11.5 billion unexpected plunge in consumer credit yesterday.  The market can ignore it for awhile, but it's breathtakingly naive to assume that because it's being ignored that it doesn't exist.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:30 | 291832 nope-1004
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Agreed.  Households are maxed out on credit and those that are inundated with financing fees confuse the fact that today's economic deflation (an increase in buying power) is only for those who did not go all-in on the credit train.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:35 | 291840 Slewburger
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"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:43 | 291850 Bear
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You know they didn't have helicopters in 1930 and those early biplanes couldn't carry much in the way of payloads, so we should last much longer 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:45 | 291856 SheepDog-One
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All humming along splendidly, well until it no longer does. Of course all is well until some big bank or other gets a fly in the ointment, then its time to pull the rug out again and throw a crisis tantrum about this 'unforeseen event', whatever that may be. Remember every 'crisis' is always unforeseen, just like the collapse from 14,000 levels which had been totaly confirmed as quite solid by Bernanke himself, the present re-affirmer of 'all is well', until it suddenly wasnt well and we saw 700 point down days.
I dont trust any of it the least bit!
How do you think the present finely tuned scam machine will run in Nov. if the elections cause a huge up-end in the congress and senate, as is projected?
Or imagine if riots and Kent State style killings take place at Wash DC demonstrations next week? These things alone could immediately set it all on its ear.
Extend, pretent, defend, up-end till The End.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:52 | 291867 Slothrop
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"Chinese solar stocks will make you rich" -- Leo K.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 18:09 | 292176 wmefford
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"When you come to a fork in the road take it."  What year is this?

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 18:48 | 292242 SWRichmond
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I did sell at the very peak: October/November 2007.  My capital's been in hiding ever since.  I have made some of it available to precious metal miners, but no one else.  If there is another such peak, it will be at the expense of the buying power of USD.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 19:01 | 292266 Agent Orange
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As a research guy, I am a little jealous that Rosenberg's firm lets him continue unabated with a reality-based message. I lost "friends" at my frim over my view. People just stopped talking to me. I got to the point where I just had to comment on what was happening in a neutral fashion and give up the angry bear routine.

Bubbles occurr because analysts aren't free to fight them. They can only protest for so long before they are bounced for questioning the status quo. I hope Rosie is around long enough to be vindicated.



Thu, 04/08/2010 - 22:49 | 292542 MaxPower
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I feel your pain. I did my "analysis" over lunches with other military officers. Don't think that bubbles occur because analysts aren't free to fight them; it's because almost everyone would rather live in the warm abodes of their delusions than in the cold, rainy parking lots of reality.

By the way, I sacrificed that military career just shy of qualifying for a retirement because my principles would no longer let me sleep at night. Best decision I ever made.

Before, I was trying to "bring the man down from inside (nudge, nudge, wink, wink)," now I'm just a freelancer.

Keep your faith. It'll sustain you better than any "go-long!" calls ever will...

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 19:43 | 292335 Flakmeister
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   In all fairness to Fisher, he realized the extent of his error and proceeded to publish one of the best analysis of the

1930's credit bust. If only 1/4 of the ass hats in this generation of economic shaman witch doctors had read what he wrote, the worst of the past 15 years might have been avoided.



Thu, 04/08/2010 - 20:12 | 292360 Moneygrove
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Thu, 04/08/2010 - 21:27 | 292443 Pure Evil
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Trying to get out at the top in a market is a lot like riding a roller coaster. When you approach the highest point, the ride up to the pinnicle is long and time consuming, when you reach the top, you barely have time to grap your pecker before the roller coaster rushes down the hill faster than you can scream Geronimo.

Fri, 04/09/2010 - 22:53 | 294150 tyler
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kudlow sounds like that. 

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