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Radio Zero: This One Goes To 11
Radio Zero Returns. A bit of cautious Friday celebration? Definitely in order. URL here at 8:30 ET.
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From Drudge
FREAK:
DOW JONES 9605 TODAY
DOW JONES 9605 SEPT 10, 2001
Sorry I junked you by accident... don't know what happened... I was clicking on one of the links and it just happened...
That is really, really interesting... what are the odds... the technicians should have a field day with that...
Hi MN,
CNBS pointed this out in Erin's show today--which is the only time I turn up the sound on CNBS. I will keep it at that since if I rail against Drudge as having any credence in the world I will get slammed.
Maybe we could bring up Huffington Post... that ought to get one or two posts... I am sure only flattering ones though... and if that doesn't work we can discuss Jon Stewart... that always works :-)
The universe is talking to us... is anyone listening?
A million solar systems being created at once
http://fixitordeal.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/pillars20of20creation.jpg
And the universe in a proton
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8v0hcpeTCS4
The universe has a lot to say...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0lxbzgwW7I http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDNEV9EW06g&feature=related
bask in the insignificance of your existence
364 days 23 hours 56 minutes 4.091 seconds give or take
I bask daily...and thoroughly enjoy it. All that matters is what you have right here, right now. Everything else is just in your mind or a fignutten of you imagination.
Howard; a stochastic mind; i love it. Same as me. Impossible is, basically, a joke when you think stochastically. IF there ever were to be an evolution of Mind; it would, without any mistake, be that the every Mind reconfigures itself; and thus the actions of the ones that exist onto stochastic method. Then, humanity would thrive.
That was so cool... way cool... in fact so cool that I actually took notes... by the way I really do have an actual life with real people in it and a real job... :-)
Cheeky... when I watched this I wondered what you would think... is it possible... if you are still out there... give Steak's second link a click.
What did you think Steak... the whole thought is really interesting...
Minnesota; i'm watching; will get back to you when i see the whole thing; but all i can say at this point is; size is the derivative of comparison; not a constant; it is more of a philosophical question than mathematical; but imagine this; if there were to exist only two balls; one of which is 2 times smaller in diameter, volume and surface than the other one; which would be the biggest thing in existence; not counting the space in which they exist ? see; a matter of comparison, not constant.
It makes the most sense of any explanations I've seen. I am very much of the belief that the laws of nature (whatever they may be) hold across all scales, the larger resembles the smaller. So it always kinda made sense that all the nuclear forces would be unified with gravity. I believe there is one force to rule them all that we haven't figured out and this is probably a good step in the right direction.
the problem of unification in physics is the same as the problem of prime numbers in mathematics: many people committed suicide when they dealt with those questions; maybe Nature wants to hide some things from us. If you are a subset of a larger set; it is impossible to know the cardinality of the larger set. That is an axiom. For example you can not know how many people are in the world if you only look yourself in the mirror, you can speculate; but you can not know.
Just read this this morning... missed it last night... liked that part about "subset of a larger set... it is impossible to know the cardinality of the larger set". It is my 'ant' rant (from last week on Andy's open thread)... put much more concisely and eloquently... but you really missed those interesting facts about ants with your version :-)
Well the link for the paper he wrote was a little over my head... but if I spent a few weeks I am sure I could sort through it... but wow... the thoughts are remarkable:
I hope there is a time in my life that I have one entire undisturbed year that I can just think and wonder about all of this every single day... where I can dig into any and every book...
I hope there is a time in my life that I have one entire undisturbed year that I can just think and wonder about all of this every single day... where I can dig into any and every book...
Minnesota; insanity is then inevitable; believe i have tried to do that; it fucked me up. And did so hard.
I think I will try my year sans alcohol... thinking more like with lemonade in a cottage in the woods...
So your exchange today was interesting about the war... how did you get involved... I would assume from the little I read... it was just something that you had to just step up and do...
moral obligation; and a strong will to participate in something that sums up a 1000 year old wish for an independent country. I didn't have to; i wanted to. And i'm proud of it. But, what im not proud of is the state the country is in right now. this is not what many of us fought for, and many died for.
I recently watched a documentary on the current state of Croatia... and what a time warp... it documented the struggles of people who used to have jobs but now have no jobs and are living in the countryside trying to survive... several women were working to set up co-ops so people would have a place to bring the fruit and vegetables that they grew so they could be sold. It must be very sad... yet provides a unique insight into what happens when a country disintegrates... what a completely different slice of life that most Americans can not even imagine... but it can change in a heartbeat.
And you should be proud of what you did... but I would think that the experience left a lot of scars... since you were fighting in your own homeland... that is something that not even American soldiers do... go to war in their own homeland...
the problem is that it became a social state; maybe THE most social state in the entire Europe. I mean is not THAT bad ( i hope it was not on BBC; that documentary i mean ). People are easy going here; have lots on their minds, but are generally happy; and many do nothing except bitch and moan all the long. Hey; but they still have 3rd most volumus EU water supply; vast arable fields and a good geo-political position. Co-ops are relics left over from the time when communism was the main ideology. Most people work in 3 rd or 4th sector and the country is very well industrialized. The problem is laziness and the comfort which social state provides. There are far worst examples of economic deterioration in Europe; one only has to look at the Baltic states and Iceland. And yes, that is the period of my life which im most proud of. And the scars are here, but barely noticeable.
You are one interesting, extremely complex man... and you can take that as a complement...
* blush *
Homo Ludens
Amen.
However economy and society is a system that tends to fall into certain equilibrium. And while an equilibrium might have various points and could be manipulated, eventually manipulators will run out of the fuel and the equilibrium will come back to its natural steady state. And the steady state of society and economy does depend on hard working and capable pawns that eventually will decide, enough is enough.
As my own act of disobedience I will only vote for independent candidates from the third party, or not vote at all.
Our time will come & we will shine again.
That is similar to what I thought... there is some simple explanation that unifies all of this... to treat quantum physics as if it has completely different laws than macro physics does seems absurd to me... but I really don't think that whatever unifies it is going to be as complex as physicist's are trying to make it out to be... such as 11 dimensions all curled up...
fractals thats what its all about.
fractals ?
work fine in theoretical mathematics ( its the infinity thing ); not so good in positive ( empirical ) sciences ( its (p/q ) / ((p/q)/(p/q/(p/q)...../(p/q)))) ) thing which limites them. symmetrical division only goes so far when it come to matter. And problem with string theory is the problem of many parts of empirical sciences. It proof is based upon mathematical proof; not observation or measurement. While in mathematics there can be a dispute on the nature and metaphysical identity of mathematics; there can be no such thing in positive sciences. Platonism ( or confirming via non-empirical methods ) is a methodical insufficiency in positive sciences, constructivism is also a methodological insufficiency, so is formalism. If it is physics that it must be observable/measurable, if its not, than pragmatically it can be only two things; either it is mathematics ( has some pragmatic purpose. ie. applied mathematics ) or it is simply philosophy ( which again leads us to Platonism, formalism and constructivism ). So, if we wish to portray the universe in a positive way, we should be able to observe/measure its principles, and basic building blocks of matter; if we can not; then it is not physics yet. Also, if you wish so, you can put the whole thing into temporal frame and go from there; you can simply say that the technology advanced enough has not yet been developed, and thus the category of the nature of the field ( positive, mathematical, philosophical ) can not yet be confirmed or proven false. But if you do that; you only enforce the non-observable nature of the field and successfully remove all positivism from it. That's the main problem of string theory and those who preach unification. It is simply not physics; it is mathematics, it is philosophy, but it is not physics. The problem is not the on of techincal nature, but the one of method and classification verification.
all these words and categories can only go so far. Unfortunately in any language (math included of course) there will be a problem of classification. we dont think in words or binary or we think with an infinitely complex and flexible radix and any sort of means of communication (and other projection unto the real word) will always be lacking in capturing this. We can at most get close to the truth in the realm outside the confines of our mind, and for now, finding it is only possible within. It is up to each one of us as individuals.
But I do have faith that maybe, someday we can see and share the truth, but that is a far ways off and any attempt at this will most likely be misguided. ZH is as close as it gets though so maybe there is hope.
"what is replicating, and why?"
Somewhere in the universe all the theories converge
into a cosmic conversation
unencumbered by the weight of words
beautiful...
Nice to know you have it
Where did you run off to... you must answer my question above so then I can go to bed... here is a refresher...
Mmmmm.... my response on the flu topic... whole system thing... whole community thing... that is too vague... you must clarify...
yes
ZerOhead; can you please repost the Vatican post here, i cant find it in the open thread among all those comments; thanks
Uh Ohhhhhhhhhhhh
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTbJCEBE6Ak
Andrew Bennett - Menar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfJbttSWeK8
Wait WHAT?!?! I missed that last part, whose contact info?
Am I the only one that totally missed out on the background info about the auction whose (lucky) winner was announced a while (25 mins?) back? Next time, perhaps. It was reward enough to hear Marla's voice...
Kudos on the previous track, and gratitude for the programming in general.
BTW, I may be one of the last ones on Earth to have seen these, but I did ROFL for a while -- and they are so twistedly apt without any trace of sarcasm for so much that goes on out there these days.
http://despair.com/viewall.html
Hadn't seen that before...
And my personal favorite was:
CONFORMITY
When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate each other.
Here's a potentially stupid question: if you could forecast the monthly US savings rate with 92% accuracy approx. 2 months before the month in question, what would be the most expedient way to take advantage of such knowledge? Same for monthly US retail spend.
I would be buying or selling discretionary retail stocks as both of those signals would primarily impact that market... but that is an unusual question... especially the specificity of the accuracy rate... do you know something that we don't know...
I'd like to think I do... Or at least have an inkling. Much work remains to be done, and predictive modeling of stock movements is not my area of expertise. I am currently trying to figure out where I am making unfounded assumptions, because the correlation seems way, way too high.
As of now, the metric tracks the aforementioned (real-world) values eerily -- but you must bear in mind how unhinged from fundamentals the market is - just b/c spend drops, but by less than expected -- retail stocks could go up. Or the whole mess could go up in a puff of smoke and rubble next week.
The metric(s) are also interesting in that they track the retail/consumer discr/US homebuilding sector ETF, even the SPY, with a relatively set window of prediction -- then starting around March 09 it breaks down. It becomes unreliable -- sometimes lagging, sometimes leading. I have a lot of work to do in comparing it to individual stocks and other funds/indices. Also, as it is essentially a sentiment indicator, it whipsaws rather wildly and has to be averaged out -- so I've been comparing to weekly VWAP values of funds and stocks.
you would need to see/collect rough data related to income and changes in savings and investment accounts. It might be impossible to do on individual level, unless you have direct access (work) for the US statistical office.
Anon #67391... do you?
Sorry about the delay, I forgot that responses get moderated when logged out. Also limited in length...
Part II: I am trying to figure out a way to share this once I've had a chance to vet and validate more thoroughly - sorry I can't really go into more detail. For what an anonymous, unsubstantiated claim is worth -- the PSAVERT will likely be go down slightly for Aug-Sep, and go up significantly (perhaps to around or above 5%) in October and higher still in Nov. Guesstimate for spend is substantially harder; maybe $350B-$355B in Aug/Sep, then sharp drop in Oct/Nov. Of course this does not take into account things like $ for clunkers.
Source data:
http://www.census.gov/marts/www/previousreleases.html
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVERT
Sorry about that, was logged out. Repeat anon comments will likely appear.
I'd like to think I do... Or at least have an inkling. Much work remains to be done, and predictive modeling of stock movements is not my area of expertise. I am currently trying to figure out where I am making unfounded assumptions, because the correlation seems way, way too high.
As of now, the metric tracks the aforementioned (real-world) values eerily -- but you must bear in mind how unhinged from fundamentals the market is - just b/c spend drops, but by less than expected -- retail stocks could go up. Or the whole mess could go up in a puff of smoke and rubble next week.
The metric(s) are also interesting in that they track the retail/consumer discr/US homebuilding sector ETF, even the SPY, with a relatively set window of prediction -- then starting around March 09 it breaks down. It becomes unreliable -- sometimes lagging, sometimes leading. I have a lot of work to do in comparing it to individual stocks and other funds/indices. Also, as it is essentially a sentiment indicator, it whipsaws rather wildly and has to be averaged out -- so I've been comparing to weekly VWAP values of funds and stocks. 0.7<r<0.8 with these, generally a few weeks out.
I am trying to figure out a way to share some more of this (without giving away the farm) once I've had a chance to vet and validate more thoroughly - sorry I can't really go into more detail. For what an anonymous, unsubstantiated claim is worth -- the PSAVERT will likely be go down slightly for Aug-Sep, and go up significantly (perhaps to around or above 5%) in October and higher still in Nov. Guesstimate for spend is substantially harder; maybe $350B-$355B in Aug/Sep, then sharp drop in Oct/Nov. Of course this does not take into account things like $ for clunkers.
In response to Comrade's comment above, this is not implied to be on an individual level -- it (right now) only works on an overall/national level. Think of it as a measure of consumer confidence (or lack thereof) -- just more honest, and thus more accurate than those currently out there. The data sources I used to verify the predictive correlation are the numbers published by the good old USG and the Fed:
http://www.census.gov/retail/ and http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVERT
Pretty interesting stuff you are working on... so if you extrapolate and play off your numbers...I wonder what the catalyst would be for the decline in the PSAVERT in Aug/Sept and then subsequent increase in Oct/Nov... maybe the drop in government spending in Oct/Nov creating fear and insecurity in the consumer once again. Seems like the perfect metric for a drop in equities, rise in treasuries, and god only knows about the dollar. Do you think we will ever see the day again when the PSAVERT peaks up close to 15% like in the 1970's?
It's not really that these measurements are literally a window into the future, it is that consumer actions lag after intentions and emotions. Consider the guy who decides that the current economic environment is just too risky, he needs to save more for the future. He stops going out to restaurants, he cancels his premium cable, maybe saves a trip to a nearby Native American casino. He instructs his employer to increase his 401k contribution. All of this takes time, the actual savings impact shows up in bonds, CDs or savings accounts with a substantial lag -- 6-8 weeks. The increase in the cooling effect of fear currently going on is what will spur the "condensation" of savings 2-2.5 months down the road.
As for 15%? I dunno. I am thinking that society has to dramatically rearrange itself for most people to be able to afford socking away 15% of their income, as the proportion of disposable income has gone down substantially, and overall income has not really increased much lately. Also, the 14.6% peak in the May of 1975 was a spike, the rate was around 11% at its highest stable level. I think if we hit 15% in the near term (next 1-2 yrs), it will reflect catastrophic conditions in the economy -- as no one will be spending to support the ~70% of GDP that comes from consumer spending.
Good night Marla... thank you...
OK this was a surreal night and I have to share.
Unfortunately tonight I was too inebriated with alcohol and other natural substances to be chasing skirts, so I just mostly chilled and took it easy at the bar, but I met two strangers who IMHO exemplified the moral crisis we are in. And I mean not to be offensive when I say this, just in case you identify with either one of these fuckers, probably the second guy, although hopefully not.
When I am too inebriated to proactively socialize I usually play pool. I am good at pool and theres only one table at the bar where I went to tonight and needless to say once I started playing, I didnt stop until it was lights out. But on game number three there was an asshole. He introduced himself as Charles with a very soft handshake after I broke and made the first two balls. I missed my third shot and he took the table. He started making shots and as an experienced pool player I can honestly say he got the luckiest set ups I have ever seen. He got cocky as he kept making balls and he went into his pre-shot setup in a more and more grandiose/slick way as he kept making balls in. I just sat there and watched as this cocksucker ran the table with incredible luck as he had a clear shot on every ball...until the eight ball. I heard him say to his partner (we were playing doubles and my partner was not good but I promised him that if we started playing we would keep playing until the end of the night) "I better not scratch here, we're ahead by like seven balls." He then proceeded to scratch by not hitting the eight ball on a bank shot.
The most curious thing happened then. Right before my eyes, him and his partner and his "group" proceeded to act as if the game was not over. "Your shot" they said. And in case you do not know pool rules, if you scratch on the eight ball, you lose the game. I would have understood if he had looked at me and said, ok we lost, but lets play out out anyways or something like that. No, he acted as if the rules did not apply to him because he was so damn close to winning or because he was privik\laged in some obsene way. I decided to inform him of the situation. "I do now you scratched on the eight ball right?" His partner was the only one available for conversation since Charles went to the bar to refill after confidently continuing a concluded game. The partner, who had not had a shot yet, replied differently everytime I repeated the question. What. Huh. I didnt see it. Did you see it? Nobody saw that. What does that mean? "It means you lost the game. Sorry." Charles get back. After I inform him of the fact that he lost he starts bullshitting hardcore. In fact, you can easily tell that this is what he does for a living. I tell him he scrathed on the eight ball; he asks how so? "You didnt hit the eightball." Then he goes on to say that scratching only means that you get the cue ball in a pocket. I correct him on his definition of scratching. Then he goes on to say that your first time scratching on the eight ball is a get out of jail free card and is always forgiven. I tell him that is not the case.
His last line of defense is bar rules vs tournament rules. BTW this argument lastas at least twnty minutes. He shrieks at the top of his lungs that I am freaking out about the rules. Sure if we were playing some "tightass tournament" he would lose, but this is the BAR he says and the bar rules dictate that he actually didnt lose the game when he stached on the eightball. I ask him to point out these bar rules. He cant. He calls me an asshole and start walking around. His friend comes over and he is a bit more reasonable. He admits he lost the game because of the scratch and proposed a rematch for the table. I, jump on the compromise since I know he isnt that good and I just would love to wipe the floor with him. No, those terms are unacceptable to Charles. He wants the table. At this point I ask the guys I previously beat for a clarification of the bar rules. "Do you lose if you scratch on the eight ball?" They say yes and after arguing with them as well trying to turn their loss as leverage to change their decision, I remark that all he's doing is bullshitting and they agree. That breaks the camels back. He calls me an uptight asshole one more time and concedes the table.
The perfect example of how far the moral hazard has spread in our society. The guy thought the rules did not apply to him for some reason, that he was privilaged and in the end he was wrong.
I met the second guy outside the bar after lights out. He along with my buddy were begging for cigarettes and somehow the jewishness of the cigarette provider and beggars came into question. I am not jewish but to stir up conversation I asked if the guy had taken advantage of his birthright trip yet. He says no and he might be too old to do so. So I say that its probably fer the better since hed probably get drafted. Then my mind is blown again. "Well if I did go, I would try to enlist. somebody has to fight for freedom." Kneejerk react comes a follows: "but they kill innocent people in Palestine. how does killing innocents give you more freedom?" He is speechless for the better part of the next five minutes as the rain continues to drizzle. "somebody has to fight for freedom....listen, we are all cogs in the machine. I went to law school. I could have been a JAG but I chose not to do it. Somebody has to FIGHT!" I let him know how we dont really have to be cogs, (he was obviously pretty smart as we had futher conversation where he demostrated deep knowledge of our poltical system) but somehow could not understand this point.) "there are always going to be players. you want to be a politician you need respect." so I ask him if his desire to join the service is purely or political reasons. He stutters out a no but then he changes it to a yes. "there are always going to be players, always going to be cogs in the machine. Youre either one or youre not." I object. I tell him that that you can be outside the machine and have a fulfilling and impactful life just as well. "you have a choice" is my initial conclusion. I also inform him of a personal choice that I made earlier in life when I chose not to be a cog in a machine because I asked the question what would be the point of oppressing all these foreign people if all Im doing is promoting oppression of other people just so that the US can remain the most dominant country ever and maintain its trade balance. He agreed it was fucked up. He the proceeded to leave and gave me this parting quote: "I just want to have a gun in my hand and blow some heads up."
Finally the night ended as his girl (no moral crisis exemplified by her) was searching for fire started talking to us. At that point someone had collapsed on the street (too drunk), blocking traffic, and had our attention captured. The ambulance is there soon enough and it reminds the girl...she screams "that was me two years ago. I was DEAD for fifteen minutes!I swear. I was dead. I had like a sixpack of pbrs six shots of tequila six shots of jack..." she kept going...that was it. I hadn't smoked for over half a year until bumming a cigarette off her and getting every detail of her life story.
And I'm probably never quitting again.
Being able to see both sides of the debate, on one hand you wanted the rules to matter, on the other hand it was Friday night, and people just want to have a good time, fuck the rules... But he wanted to keep the table, and you were right to stand your ground. I thought about this "for a time", my conclusion is thus:
I would have chosen to take the opportunity of beating him even though he cheats, thereby solidifying his lack of skill. With most of your balls on the table and none of his, there should have been at least 2 consecutive easy shots. Sink those. Then play defense, without scratching, put the ball where only a professional could make the shot, and let him take his turn. A skilled pool player could do this with little effort. The complication comes into the partner who is not so good. If he agrees to take the defense, he then must also put the ball where it is nearly impossible to make a shot, unless of course he has a clear shot, but must follow up with a great defensive shot. The difficulty is, the fewer the balls, the more complicated the defense, but a skilled pool player would be able to do this, if the partner can back him up...
IMO
as for the other guy... sounds like drinking banter to me...
At first I was going to go for compromise, since I had promised my friend to keep playing until the end of the night. We could have won regardless since we just had to have them miss one shot more shot on the eight and it would be my turn.
But then after seeing how adamant the guy was at bullshitting, how deeply enrooted the sense of privilage was for him, it turned into a matter of principle. I decided that it was high time he learned a lesson, that you cant cheat and bullshit your way out of everything. He wasnt trying to reach a consensus with me, he was just trying to straight up bullshit his way into getting the table. If we had gotten his way he would have gone home that night with a reinforced belief that all you really have to do to get ahead in life is lie cheat and bs. From my point of view, I did him a favor by showing him that this is not the case.
Ummm... Tumbling Dice... I'm kinda thinking that you should have stayed in the ZH bar last night... not as rough of a crowd... and no cigs (that needs to be your last one)...but I enjoyed your story.
I would have done the exact same thing as you did with the pool playing guy... rules are rules... and unless you are 6 years old you don't get a freebie in a game... otherwise we are back to giving everyone a trophy just for their participation... a little competition is a fun part of most games.
The Jewish guy was interesting... why do people fight in a war and some don't... I really don't think the Jewish guy has seen a lot a traumatic, fatal injuries... I have... and I don't think he should be so cavalier about 'blowing some heads up'... and I probably would have told him so.
And the girl outside the bar... in my experience most college bars I went to at closing time (many years since my bar days, and I am sure Layne can pinpoint the year exactly with his unique ability to determine the era someone was born)... had a least one person either standing inappropriately in the street or laying in the street... glad I have increased the quality of my drinking establishments nowadays.
The Jewish guy was the strangest thing. I could tell he was smart, yet he had some strange tweak of wanting to kill people. And it wasnt just drunken banter, he seemed to posses all of his facilities.
We talked bout how the US was probably the greatest empire ever, about how corrupt it was and how it showed sign of crumbling. but he kept repeating that there had to be players, how he had to join politics to change it himself, but he didnt know what to he wanted to change and in the end he stopped bsing and just fessed up that he wanted the power of holding a gun and having someones(innocent or not) life in his hand. If those are our politicians in their twenties, then things are worse than I thought. Definitely not a cavalier no matter how you look at it.
And the passed out guy on the street...well he's there to give us all an oft forgotten reminder of the importance of drinking water when you consume twenty beverages in a night.
=]
Go SAINTS!!!
and the damn Raiders...
I got a story to tell....
Styles P - Nobody Believe Me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bjf6IfGkuHo
Go Marla!
8:30am in Seattle and still going...
ETA: Props to EGI for the West coast feed
dear science! youre still goin!!!
Party all the time and revelations sound groovy enough to me.
screw that fed ignoramous Im listening to you marla.
Excellent stuff Marla, thanks very much.