Is the Rally Losing Steam?

Leo Kolivakis's picture

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Everybodys All American's picture

One word Leo ... Ireland.

Bill Lumbergh's picture

Leo do you place stops or have some means of knowing when to cut losses?  The mantra of the the "reflation" trade has worked since 2009 and I imagine has become somewhat self-reinforcing for you.  All of your writings never seem to acknowledge underlying fundamentals.  Were you writing similar thoughts in 2007 and 2008 and quoting these "experts"? 

Certainly the market can go higher due to QE2 but this cannot end well since higher commodity prices squeeze margins.  In a high unemployment environment large prices increases cannot be passed on to customers effectively.  I will ask you again even though you refuse to answer each and every time but how did the Bernanke put work for you in 2008?

geno-econ's picture

All depends on how much you have to survive. If your secure , stay out of the market and sleep well. Apparently that is what Ballmer and others are doing.  If your down on your luck, what is the difference?---go ahead and roll the dice .  Afterall ,that is what Bernanke is doing on your behalf.  Problem is if everyone is rolling the dice, we are sure to all go down because by definition it is against the fundamentals. And that is why Loe should be quiet and concentrate on Greece and pension funds that are no better than Greece

Silverhog's picture

No market for me. Still getting calls from brokers. Who wants to fly in an airplane when the mechanic team is a bunch of Keynesian plumbers.

thepigman's picture

Not to pick a fight with uber bull Leo,

but QE2 is actually Berspanke throwing China, Japan,

Germany, Brazil etc etc under the

bus. Unemployment is so awful we have

no choice. Sure, China can keep pegging

but it'll cost them a fortune. Cheaper

for them to live with lower exports.

Now look at all those markets..........

all bubbles (in protest to QE2, they self

identify as such, loudly) Funny thing,

all these export surplus countries thrown

under the bus by Obama and Berspanke

have equity markets that are correlated

1:1 with us, the good old USA. Get the

picture?  I don't even have to talk

about commodities...same deal. The

global pie is smaller than it used to be

and we're all fighting for a larger piece

of a smaller pie.

 

thepigman's picture

If you don't understand this dynamic,

better study hard prior to tomorrow's

open would be my advice.

thepigman's picture

When Shanghai dropped 5% on

Friday at the conclusion of the G-20

QE2 food fight,  I heard a distinct "pop"

Clapham Junction's picture

Forget Leo, I just found out THE BERNANKES secret plan, and almost bought a BMW just by clicking on the links on this page.

WOW!

 

Goldenballs's picture

Stocks up,Gold and Silver prices manipulated,G20 announcement,everything in the Garden is rosy until the cracks properly open up and the sticking plasters come flying off.If lying was an Olympic sport America would be continual World Champions.

laosuwan's picture

Exactly. We all listened to ZH and did the rational thing and got out of equities only to watch them blast off without us. now we are tempted to get back in, its a sure sign the last leg of the crash is coming.

Wait, wait, wait. The crash is coming. Then we can buy back in and watch the market go sideways for 10 years.

tahoebumsmith's picture

Leo,

Meet me in Vegas tommorow at 7:00 am. 3960 Las Vegas Boulevard South.....Four Seasons Hotel Las Vegas. We will map out our strategy and go for broke....rumor has it the tables are hot. Just remember that the house never loses. But don't worry, there will be plenty of distractions, so pack some viagra. Don't worry Leo, even though when it is over and you may feel like you got raped, you will still feel good about yourself. 

John_Coltrane's picture

Leo needs to start plotting his charts as SPY:Gold ratios (easy to do a stockcharts.com) and then he would notice there hasn't been any rally at all-just a steady debasement of the $.  Even AAPL is only at its Oct 2008 highs when priced in gold.  So, why waste your capital on anything other than gold, platinum or silver or miners?  Insiders have been selling at a ratio of over 1000:1 and they know a lot more than of the true condition of their balance sheets.

DaveyJones's picture

"the market is heading higher" sort of the opposite of your article ratings. As others said, the nominal value going up after QE2 (and all the other crap) is meaningless without other measurement

"The only thing is you need to accept a lot more volatility. There is is nothing you can do about that." Uh, yes there is ultimately, it's called political uprising, prosecution and the reinstatement of law 

 

obamaphobe's picture

POMO is only 600 billion.  That's only 20 trips to Asia for the messiah.  If the market continues the current slide pomo can not support it.  In fact it will only make the correction deeper.  I can hear cnbc now.  "pomo was supposed to raise equities, there must be  real fundamental and structural issues in our economy."    And who says that the liquidity pump will be invested in the upside.  Buying the dips is a sucker play.   

Mitchman's picture

" I can hear cnbc now.  "pomo was supposed to raise equities, there must be  real fundamental and structural issues in our economy."  

I think that's beyond CNBC's intellectual capabilities.

RockyRacoon's picture

I stopped reading at the Muni Bonds part... but that was at the end.  So, I guess I read it all.  Never mind.

No stocks/bonds for me!  I'm shopping for silver on Monday morning.

ebworthen's picture

Yes, the FED is probably telling the pension funds and investment houses "Don't worry, we got POMO and QE2, we got your back."

That will work until it doesn't work.

This is pump #2, remember, balloons pop.

steve from virginia's picture

Lessee ... since most S&P companies make their money overseas ... and don't pay wages to US workers, since most are effectively hedge funds playing the yield curve ... since the world has lingered @ the edge of a calamitous debt deflation (OECD) or hyperinflation (China/SE Asia) and sovereigns along with US states are ready to default ... since the finance sector is also ready to collapse from bad loans ... gee!

All that tells me I should run out and buy some stocks!

Past performance is a guarantee of future returns, right?

Right??

 

 

doolittlegeorge's picture

"buy the dips" alright--as in "the dips who pretend to manage your money" while only giving a shit about their own.  a lot of good people have already been annihilated by this worthless cabal of nobody's but you know what?  starting monday the worthless arrogant "fucktards" are gonna get there's. and you know what?  even though it's NEVER enough IT'S A GOOD PHUCKING START!  I tip my hat to Jimmy Cramer.  Period.  it's not easy being bullish in general but this one's been a real particular beast.  it requires an "expertise" that simply put "goes unacknowledged by the fucktards" and all their little cock strokers who think it's all a big pile of bs to begin with.  well--HERE COMES THE REAL BULLSHIT PHUCKERS. of course you can't time the market--we all reach for it, though.  it's who we are.  and when we happen to be right it's the ability to "rein yourself in" that matters most.  now it's time for "the down-low" set to reveal just how much "all they know is how to fuck the Man and his money" while spouting off for all the world to see that "they don't need to be right they're so phucking smart."  All I have to say is "the Man with the money" is most displeased....  They never made him any money on the upside...guess who's gonna grab everything for himself on "poo hit the fan" week?  Let's just say "it ain't gonna be Cramer."

ElvisDog's picture

I don't know. I find the fact that Ballmer sold a sizeable portion of his Microsoft stock to be ominous. If he thought there was smooth sailing ahead for MS, and he should know, why would he sell such a large chunk. And Bezos/Chambers/Ellison have been similarly selling large chunks of their own company's stock.

Bear's picture

Taxes, taxes, taxes ... you will continue to see major selling by insiders this year and next as everyone will be trying to beat the taxman that come-ith. 

Azwethinkweiz's picture

Some people will have you believe these insiders sold because they "needed the cash" but if you're worth a couple hundred million, do you really need the cash that bad or would you rather be in cash so you're still worth a couple hundred million?

taraxias's picture

This market is heading higher -- much, much higher. And all of you trying to time these markets will get your heads handed to you

 

Leo = perma fucktard

Robslob's picture

I don't even read Cleo's post anymore...just the responses. Isn't he a bankrupt Greece guy or something?

jus_lite_reading's picture

Yes, I believe he was pumping NBG and got his ass handed to him.

AUD's picture

Stop hassling Leo, he's been right so far & will be right again.

There's no stockmarket panic on the horizon. Down days, weeks even, but no panic.

Fearless Rick's picture

AUD, u r funni./

Also, doofuss. Buy, buy. buy, like Cramer says.

AUD's picture

Like you know shit from clay

Mitchman's picture

I agree no stock market panic but watch what happens in Ireland.  If they play extend and pretend again, then it will be clear sailing as Leo predicts.  But if it comes down to what Merkel wants and the bondholders get it in the neck (I notice that Legarde of France is now also in support of the idea) then, Heaven forbid!, people may actually start looking at fundamentals again and stock prices will not look as good.

BTW, I note that they're already talking about restructuring the Greek IMF loan and the ink isn't even dry on the original!

AUD's picture

The fundamentals of a lot of stocks look better than the fundamentals of a lot of government debt. Considering the current spread of corporate yields over governments i.e. a bubble (in governments), I'm not even convinced that this 'flight to safety' in governments thing will keep occurring.

Mitchman's picture

I agree with you but the corporates should not be trading at the implied multiples at which they are trading today.

AUD's picture

"corporates should not be trading at the implied multiples at which they are trading today"

I am unsure of what you mean here.

Mitchman's picture

Sorry if I'm being unclear.  Based on the fundamentals, corporates should not be trading at the prices and multiples at which they are trading today.  I think the economy stinks and I think we are going to have earnings disappointments going forward.

AUD's picture

"corporates should not be trading at the prices and multiples at which they are trading today"

In terms of what, the dollar? The dollar is nothing more than the irredeemable & unpayable (read worthless) debt of the government. I think corporates should be trading at a premium (a hyperinflationary one) rather than a discount to governments, yet the discount is currently huge compared to any time in the last decade. This is despite the ludicrous issuance of government debt in the last couple of years, as in exponential I mean.

Ok, so some corporate debt is garbage but this just reinforces my point. This same worthless garbage is now what central banks everywhere have in their vaults purporting to give their liability, being the dollar, euro etc, its value!

A ludicrously unstable situation which therefore is & will not be stable.

AUD's picture

"yet the discount is currently huge compared to any time in the last decade"

With the exception of 12 months or so of the 'GFC'.

Mitchman's picture

That raises a good question:  If the sovereign is worthless, what is the corporate worth?  If the corporate's assets are denominated in the same bankrupt currency, what have you got?

AUD's picture

A million, billion, quadrillion sovereigns?

Ned Zeppelin's picture

If you've ridden the train from 666 you've done well. Why not go all in

ILikeBoats's picture

Please everyone!  Keep playing at our casino!

BigDuke6's picture

I've been tempted to get back in - a sure sign a crash is coming.

Azannoth's picture

Youre damed if you do damned if you don't, they know when the retail investor piles in than they crash, so you can never win, unless you trade on a daily basis than you might have a chance but holding any 1 stock for longer than a week is russian rulete

Minion's picture

I think we're ripe for a minor pullback.  Major indices are about to break the 20 day EMA, but with all the IPOs next week, including Government Motors, I doubt that the PPT will let it sink very far.

Shameful's picture

Oh course the market will go up.  With the POMO rocket strapped to it how could it not move up in dollar denominated terms?  The only question is what will go up the most vs declining purchasing power of currencies.