Random Market Musings From David Rosenberg

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Tue, 03/08/2011 - 10:39 | 1029429 hugovanderbubble
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More QE`3 ..QE sub n....


Higher Hard assets prices....


Go ahead¡¡¡ Geithner and Bernanke destroy US and World Trade commerce...

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 10:50 | 1029445 dwdollar
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They will change their ideal from 2% to 5%.  Problem solved.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 10:49 | 1029451 AN0NYM0US
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 "All in, we see an uncertain economic climate."


Dave you say uncertain?? what happened to deflation and the end of the world?  

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 10:51 | 1029452 chubbar
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The whole western world is bankrupt and needing their revenues to service their own issues. I just want someone to ask these guys who is going to step up to buy the trillions in U.S. sovereign debt instruments that will be auctioned over the next couple of years if it isn't the FED?

There isn't anyone else, that's the elephant in the room. Not headline inflation, european rates or any other metric they would use to argue either side of the "do we or don't we" QE 3.

What am I missing here?

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 10:53 | 1029462 TWORIVER
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Copper chart is saying it's all over.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 11:59 | 1029706 rosiescenario
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Copper prices have been a real puzzle to me....with the bulk of copper consumed in construction activity the only explanation for what we have been seeing inits rise is due to hot money algo trading programs which can unwind even more quickly.

IMHO, Dr. Copper's forecasting ability no longer exists...the Dr. is now just another Wall Street whore.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 10:58 | 1029470 reader2010
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Inflate or die, that is Bernanke's mantra.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 11:01 | 1029481 ChartreuseDog
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The primary reason why so many investors believe that the economy is improving is because the surveys have been so strong — the ISMs, consumer confidence and regional Fed polls of manufacturing sentiment. The auto, claims, and the chain store sales data were also decent. But there is an array of other data reports like industrial production, single-family starts, real consumer spending, core capex orders and shipments, construction spending and new home sales that were all negative. So no, it is not apparent that we are seeing a uniformly strong U.S. economy at all, but then again, perceptions are often difficult to break.


So, the reason why the surveys have been strong is that the perceptions are good. The perceptions are good because the surveys are strong (and, the "let there never be heard a discouraging word" attitude from the MSM).

This all works great until it doesn't.


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 11:00 | 1029485 Mr Sceptical
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This guy has got it all wrong since jackson hole in august, so ya sure there is lot of uncertainity out there....

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 11:06 | 1029492 markmotive
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Did he just completely change his tune?

Are the deflationists now picking up on the fact that inflation can exist at the same time as an output gap?

According to shadowstats the real inflation is around 10%: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/02/22/real-inflation-near-10/

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 11:11 | 1029514 Scottj88
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Inflation is real...

Bankers are lying to us...

Let us try them all for high treason...


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 11:26 | 1029571 HedgeFundLIVE
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totally agree here, eerie calm- great description.  market is delusional!: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/tuesday-market-expectations-we-are-all-pretty-nervous-if-not-we-are-ignorant

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 11:43 | 1029636 Grand Supercycle
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Feb 16 blog post:

When DOW/S&P500 etc. overdue correction commences, I expect:

US Dollar, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index



Tue, 03/08/2011 - 14:59 | 1030406 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Reversion to the mean.  It's a bitch, friends, unless you're on the right side of it.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 12:03 | 1029729 rosiescenario
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I am simple minded....inflation benefits the debtor....and who is the biggest debtor?....and who controls the presses?

Nice and steady 5% inflation which companies can plan for will eventually solve the underwater housing problem, save the banks holding that paper, bail out the underwater homeowner, and ruin all us old geezers enetering retirement....but that is a small sacrifice.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 12:46 | 1029885 glenlloyd
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with 5% real inflation and zirp it's a disincentive to save, there's no reward for the savings, and if you don't have savings, because in reality your losing money every day and, you don't have real capital for investment.

besides, i would argue that we're already at 5% inflation for the 'needs'. For everything else may be declining in price, but for what we need we're already there.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 12:59 | 1029927 ElvisDog
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The underwater housing problem is only solved if there is wage inflation that keeps up with the inflation of commodities. The reason what you wrote never works over the intermediate to long term is that wage inflation never keeps up with the increase in prices because there are always inefficiences in any economic system. Inflation will not save the day.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 12:10 | 1029761 Stuck on Zero
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Hasn't the last thirty years of U.S. history taught us anything?  Long and drawn arguments over growing government, growing the money supply or raising the debt ceiling and they all end up with exactly the ame result: growing government, growing the money supply or raising the debt ceilin.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 12:13 | 1029768 99er
99er's picture


A slow but steady climb.


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 15:03 | 1030418 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, it's weird to me that people were surprised by the march down (72-73 wouldn't be particularly shocking), and it's weird to me that people will be surprised by the march up.

Cycles are built into this, folks.  They're getting a lot more wild, of course, but they're still there.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 12:47 | 1029875 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

The answer is everyone dumping equities and commodities along with the current debt holders who don't want to get decimated. DEC 2008 US bonds sold for less than transaction costs. Shit hit fan and they paid the US to hold their money.


The better question is with the world bankrupt who is going to buy anything to drive already high prices higher.


Obviously equities and commodities went up with QE no reason they shouldn't come down when it goes away.


IT is very disturbing to anyone who bought this theory to begin with that Rosenberg is now on board,

his greatest skill is being perpetually wrong.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 12:48 | 1029900 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

yes, a whole range of investments benefited from QE, some will come down, the big question is how much they will come down and which ones.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 17:15 | 1030800 depression
depression's picture

0.99999999999 correlation locked in on the Fed balance sheet = everything

Endgame starts when 10 year treasury breaks above 4.00%

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 15:06 | 1030429 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Here's the bottom line:  My mom's (who is 63) stock index holdings went down about 45% during the last crash.  She said to me at the time "If it goes back up over about 12,000, I'm cashing out for good."  She cashed out for good as soon as it hit 12,000.  I promise you this is the top (at least for the next several months).  Look for QE3 to commence around the same time as last year, but stocks are going to get WTFCRUSHT in the meantime.

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