RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 26/04/11

Comments

[hugovanderbubble]

Important,

Two German Banks wont pass the stress test: Deutsche Postbank & AAREAL bank. One in Spain has commited fraud in figures: Banco Popular‏ * Sell German Banks
 
*Also French Banks are affected by the Greek Debt Haircut: [Socgen,CreditAgricole and BNP]
 
* Spanish Banco Pòpular has cooked internal books in order to make up figures specially in Real Estate Loans Losses - Partial Nationalization coming over it if no new recap, as Credit Mutuel has not stored fresh capital.
 
-Setting Banco Popular price target at 1.60 € per share.
 
-Spain needs IMF aid to restore Financial Stability - keep selling Spanish Bonds and uploading CDS in the 5yt and 10 yrs Tranches.
 
- Short not just Euro Financials, also Insurance will be affected with Mismatch in Asset-Liabilities Performance.
 
*Expecting 10% retracement in equities for next 2 months
 
* Loading for alpha purposes and not just for hedging 6.700 Dax Puts and Long VIX (June Target)
 
* Hard Commodities are overheated, so we think a big sell off coming with a USD appreciation pressure (2H11- Long USD vs all fx crossses)
 
* Use SCO as  inverse commodity player
 
*No QE3 with same effects as QE2, 3 is not necessary.
 
* Portuguese and Spanish debt Haircuts to be done during Summer with government /sub and sovereign debt.

[Zero Govt]

i almost, almost, stopped munching my Cornflakes for this pat statement in the bleedin obvious.... but then returned to reading the cartoons on the back of the cornflakes pack which is probably a better assesment of what's going on in the world!

Any chance that laser passing by behind the Ransqueek talking head slices through cutting him in half?

[Welfareisfraud]

Well he's a cute, sexy little geek, I guess that redeems him.