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Rare Earth Metal Prices Go Parabolic

Tyler Durden's picture


Back in October we asked readers if they have "Ever heard of the oxides of Lanthanum, Cerium, Neodymium, Praseodymium and/or Samarium?" We added that "With price surges between 250% and 600% in one quarter, you may wish you have." As we further predicted, courtesy of Chinese attempts to corner the rare earth space, these oxides were due to explode much further, because as their name implies, these compounds are "rare", and happen to be mostly contained in one country: that's right China. Well, for those who decided to give it the good old speculative college try, you may now retire. As the chart below shows, the YTD moves in the oxides of Dysprosium, Europium, Neodymium, Lanthanum, and all the other ones, have not doubled, not tripled, but in same cases, seen their prices increase tenfold! And people ridicule the silver "bubble"... The extra benefit: the CME's "risk management" group is completely powerless to control the rate of ascent. And judging by the charts below, the rate is certainly worthy of escape velocity. What happens next is that plasma TV purchase one may have putting off for months could end up being costly, after TV producers are forced to double the prices of finished goods, not doing much to help hedonically adjusted core inflation.

Below is a chart of the oxides of Dysporsium, Europium, Neodymium and Lanthanum.

The reason for this dramatic doubling of prices in just the month of June if due to China, which has realized it has a complete monopoly on the supply, and as we predicted in October, would be only a matter of time, before it decided to see just how far it can push prices. Per Bloomberg:

Prices of the rare earths used in lasers and plasma televisions more than doubled in the past two weeks as China tightens control of mining, production and exports, according to market researcher Industrial Minerals.

The cost of dysprosium oxide, used in magnets, lasers and nuclear reactors, has risen to about $1,470 a kilogram from $700 to $740 at the start of the month, Industrial Minerals said in an e-mailed statement. Europium oxide, used in plasma TVs and energy-saving light bulbs, has more than doubled.

China, supplier of 95 percent of the 17 elements known as rare earths, has clamped down on rare-earth mining and cut export quotas, boosting prices and sparking concern among overseas users such as Japan about access to supplies. The government may further reduce export quotas, pushing prices higher, Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty said last month.

“China has long said it will consolidate the industry but it’s moving more rapidly than many observers anticipated,” said Dudley Kingsnorth, a former rare earths project manager and now chief executive officer of Perth-based advisory Industrial Minerals Co. of Australia. “There might be an element of speculation but I think the price rises have been driven by people who are desperate for the product.”

The world’s most populous nation will raise standards for exporters and won’t approve new project expansions in an effort to curb overcapacity, illegal mining and sales, the government said last month. The Ministry of Land and Resources said yesterday it wants to set aside some rare earth deposits.

Where is Goldman opening its next office:

China’s Inner Mongolia Baotou region produces so-called
light rare earths such as lanthanum, cerium and samarium. Heavy
rare-earth production, concentrated in the south of China such
as Ganzhou, includes the elements dysprosium, gadolinium and

So which end products are about to see their prices surge to pass through these ridiculous input cost increases:

Rare earths are used in wind turbines, hybrid cars and defense applications such as guided missiles. The market for the minerals may double to as much as $6 billion by the middle of the decade, according to an April 21 report by Ernst & Young LLP analyst Michel Nestour.

Additionally, as we also observed back in October, while Molycorp has already gone through several bubble iterrations, it may be Australia's Lynas that is poised for the biggest jump.

Sydney-based Lynas is building a $220 million refinery in Malaysia’s Pahang state that will process ores including neodymium and yttrium from Mount Weld, which it now owns.

“Until such time as Lynas and Molycorp are on-stream in the next two or three years, I don’t see much relief” from high prices, Kingsnorth said. “Chinese export quotas are less than world demand.”

A table on the website of Lynas shows the composite price of eight rare earths found at Mount Weld project has surged to $203.60 a kilogram on June 13, from $92.84 on March 31 and $11.59 in 2007.

“Demand for rare-earth elements is increasing in applications that are less esoteric than say, 20 years ago,” Watts said. “China, which is the world’s main commercially developed rare-earth elements source of supply, is reducing exports and increasing its consumption.”

Will China keep export conditions constricted? Maybe, maybe not. If anything this is merely another example of what can happen to global prices when China decides it doesn't want to play ball. It also shows just how great of an impact China can have on supply chains if it so chooses. Our advice to Schumer and the other politicians who are toying with the idea of enacting currency manipulation segilation: leave a sleeping Tiger lie. Because if the rare earth metal space is any indication, it won't take much for China to make sure reexported inflatin in the US surges by a factor of 10 in precisely zero time, sending the US economy spiralin out of control faster than one can spell hyperinflation.


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Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:05 | 1378179 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Praseodymium Bitchez

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:37 | 1378314 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Yeah but as this has happened to the elements look at what has happened to the share prices in the last couple of months - they have moved in the opposite.

Perhaps a similar story here as with gold, i.e., the share prices are warning of a colapse in the price of the elements or the share prices are grossly underpriced.

I hope the later.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:22 | 1378447 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:18 | 1378663 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Maybe China can Buy Down some of the 1,200%(+ ish) Leverage that weighs on the Yaun?


Fuck, even in America our Dollar is only Leveraged 120%(+ ish).. LOL!! (ish)

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:25 | 1378669 rocker
rocker's picture

I thinks it is called Manipulation. Look at all the miners. What do you want to own?

Shares of Goldman, BAC or the Morque, (price is truth). Maybe Net Flix, Rimm or Nokia, Price is Manipulated.

Iwill still buy the miners on a average in basis and all the physical I can. I want real stuff. No counterfeit stocks.

When the manipulators decide they got enough on the cheap. We will here Upgrade.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:51 | 1378359 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

tit for tat with the LME?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:44 | 1378861 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

That phrase always reminds of an episode of SNL with Dennis Miller doing the news...

"Where do I get some tat, and how do I trade it for the other thing?"

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 09:21 | 1379984 Solid
Solid's picture

TDL Bitchez

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:05 | 1378185 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Funny thing about REM's.

Even the rarest of the all is more than 200 times more available than gold.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:06 | 1378189 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

I guess insert Demand (or manipulation) as the excuse for that.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:15 | 1378208 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The most abundant rare earth elements (REE) are each found in the earth’s crust in amounts equal to nickel, copper, zinc, molybdenum, or lead - Cerium is the 25th most abundant element of the 78 common elements in the Earth’s crust. Even the two least abundant REEs (Thulium, Lutetium) are nearly 200 times more common than gold. Overall Rees have an abundance greater than silver and similar amounts to copper and lead.




Recovery rate overall is at 63%!!


and most of the stuff oxidizes when you buy it so storing it is a mess.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:35 | 1378278 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture


Learned all about zinc and molybdenum taking geology classes. Good luck finding that in quantity. You can find it just about everywhere since the shit basically can't be destroyed.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:03 | 1378397 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Colorado had lots of it. You gotta get the EPA and other agencies to lighten up and get long term costs in line to mine it profitably.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:23 | 1378466 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Redux of the '07 rhodium spike maybe?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 18:59 | 1379000 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

this is what I was thinking. Pump it up and dump it for all of those sucker's that are ridiculous enough to buy into it near the top.


I think we will probably see some revision's to the EPA regulation's on mining in the Rockies soon.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:12 | 1378217 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

YAY!! my collection of 500 used cell phones just increased in value by 10000%! Me is happy!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:31 | 1378274 camoes
camoes's picture

I wonder where they went, I used to hate watching MTV play 20x per day Shiny Happy People

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:29 | 1378283 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

More rare are the facilities that can process REM's....Tyler, do you have any insight on the continued protests against Lynas regarding the new malaysian plant and whether or not processing the Lynas material actually would have effects on the local population.  Will this thing get built or what?  Otherwise, Lynas isn't worth much.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:17 | 1378431 TheDriver
TheDriver's picture

Which is why I think Great Western, which owns Less Common Metals, is a better play than Lynas right now.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:10 | 1378188 camoes
camoes's picture

Unobtainable bitchez

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 00:08 | 1379584 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The joke I think is unobtanium.

ummmmm, yum.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:08 | 1378196 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Well lets hope you filled your boots then Tyler.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:12 | 1378199 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Are there paper derivatives of these rare earths on COMEX?

'Cause i like it that COMEX makes prices cheap.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:16 | 1378440 malikai
malikai's picture

I'd love to score some puts here.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:12 | 1378201 The Axe
The Axe's picture

The real market is the black market for rares....and you can buy them way cheaper then that Bloomberg chart...chief..

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:11 | 1378205 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

What is the going rate for Chinese babies? I'm pretty sure they're dirt cheap. I'd like that figure in gold as well.

1000 chinese babies = 1 gold oz?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:01 | 1378373 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

results are skewed when you factor in female chinese babies and their negative return.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:10 | 1378422 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Thats a good point.

Black market doesn't work on the hocus pocus liberal nonsense. Supply and Demand.

Female Chinese Baby = Huge Supply Little Demand

Male Chinese Baby = Small Supply, Huge Demand

Nuff said.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:21 | 1378459 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Actually it's the other way around.

When a girl is born, the press in needles into their heads so they dy.

Not many females anymore. And when the boys grow up, it's very hard for them to find a partner.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:40 | 1378518 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture



Opportunity cost of having female chinese baby= 9 months and medical expense of disposing of the fetus. Slightly less costly with ultrasound and abortion....

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:14 | 1378206 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

China is the new America................(potential) economic power wise.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:14 | 1378225 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Can we merge and call ourselves Chibama?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:18 | 1378242 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Can Belgium join to?





Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:28 | 1378257 Arius
Arius's picture

CBA or ABC (in order of importance....silly me still thinks West is more important....)

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:02 | 1378396 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And the good part is that we ALL HAVE COOLAID RED in our national flags, so color picking won't be that hard.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:03 | 1378381 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

patience guys... this whole NWO thing takes time.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:33 | 1378264 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's all up to Wen.

But I'm sure Wall Street is a go as long as they can handle the IPO spin offs of every single USA Federal asset. I'm sure that will keep them busy with a few extra months of printing profits. When they are done they can take it all private, then public, then.......

Churn the chumps.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:14 | 1378207 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Those all sound like tribes on the planet hemorrhoid.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:12 | 1378214 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Unobtanium FTW

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:15 | 1378229 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

We have a lock on Bailuminum

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:16 | 1378215 quark288
quark288's picture

So very soon Mr. Dudley would find his Ipad also costing more, wonder what would he advise us to eat next....


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:18 | 1378227 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'm pretty sure that it's not that all the rare earths are in China as much as all the currently operating rare earth PRODUCTION is in China.  There are plenty of rare earth mines in the American Southwest that are currently mothballed due to low prices.

Of course, that doesn't mean that prices won't continue to rise.  Just be aware that the supply disruption has a limited lifetime.  And that lifetime is much less than that of the supply disruption for silver.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:25 | 1378250 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

 China controls besideds Yttrium 36% of all rear earths on the planet:

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 18:14 | 1378911 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Kind of like Bakken oil?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:22 | 1378239 musicmax
musicmax's picture

Long "I Just Want to Celebrate" 45's, bitchez!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:30 | 1378268 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Got needles? I hear they're kinda rare these days.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:31 | 1378484 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Needlyndium and turntableum are rare indeed. Even recordsium is getting pricey.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:22 | 1378244 Delta-Bravo-Ech...
Delta-Bravo-Echo-Charlie's picture

Rare Earth minimg companies are on sale right now! Get 'em while they're hot

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:26 | 1378251 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Someone queue Denninger to call for a "selective" default on US debt held by China! 

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 02:04 | 1379724 asiafinancenews
asiafinancenews's picture

Excellent, and why not?  China is in "selective default" on China's national debt held by foreigners including Americans and Europeans:

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:23 | 1378255 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Rare earth stocks tough to trade. I avoid them. MCP REE SHZ

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:24 | 1378260 bdiggs77
bdiggs77's picture

I would start here...








Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:47 | 1378860 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The three I am looking hardest at:

AVL (lots of the more valuable heavy rare earths and relatively advanced)

MCP (starts production late next year)

GWMGF (they own downstream processing facilities)

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:31 | 1378266 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

So, reverse charts left to right to see prices in real terms in two years once some other refiners come online?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:33 | 1378281 camoes
camoes's picture

What about hopium?? I heard it's demand is going up, but also supply seems to be infinite, it takes only two keystrokes from The Bernank

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:32 | 1378294 chancee
chancee's picture

BEWARE:  Fake Price Action in SPY Ahead

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:48 | 1378346 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Ahead?  Everything sincel last August is fumes.  IMO, we rally off the 200 day on hope of an intermediate term "solution" in greece, perhaps putting up a right shoulder, and then we trip back down to as low as 1040 S&P.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:40 | 1378322 WilliamShatner
WilliamShatner's picture

Lynas has been getting killed lately, not sure if I should bail now with my healthy gains or hold out.

Same thing with Great Western Minerals.

What to do, what to do....


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:49 | 1378348 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Nice Avatar.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:14 | 1378421 WilliamShatner
WilliamShatner's picture

Are you my evil, alternate universe twin?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:48 | 1378332 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

There has never been a better argument for not watching TV.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:51 | 1378343 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

Yeah but you can't eat'em. 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:49 | 1378344 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Yep, and "rare earth" stocks are tanking as of late, just like the walking dead [junior] gold mining stocks that were supposed to "take off" as gold rose to $1500 as espoused by's Puplava and other pumpers (and friends of Jeff Christian).

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:50 | 1378355 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>Lanthanum, Cerium, Neodymium, Praseodymium and/or Samarium

Kazakhstan, #1 producer of potassium.

Fukushima nuclear plant, #1 producer of rare earths.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:09 | 1378360 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Through my contacts in China, I hope to corner the following rare earth metals:











Once I corner the market on these very valuable REMs, I shall hire Goldman Sachs as underwriter and IPO my new company (ticker symbol: FKDYOOUP)

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:11 | 1378414 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Add collectivisium, ignoranium and TARPonium.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:13 | 1378419 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

+ Very nice.

I really want to be bullish on ignoranium, but am told it's in quite ample supply.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:33 | 1378507 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

The trick is to have a lot if ignoranium to begin with. That way you never know the supply has been buidling up.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:20 | 1378700 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yes. Excellent advice.

With Bernanke at the helm, I need similarly large stockpiles of Passium Bongium Mehititium, and I will short the shit out Failum, as that will be conversely oversupplied with Bernank at the helm.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:51 | 1378744 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

Ignoranium and Gullibillium are usually found together in rock, in the form of Ignoranium Gullibillinite (hexagonal crystal)

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:29 | 1378815 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You probably already know this, but if you put those into powder form, and reconsitute them together with some hopium and liquid bullshitiom in a beaker at super cold temps, you get govliesium crystals.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:55 | 1378887 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

I confirm. I used to sneak in to chem lab at my kindergarten late in the night, to cook up Govliesium crystals. I've also cooked up, please do not share this with others, Absurdium (the secret catalyst)

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 15:24 | 1380769 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

LMAO. A surprisingly good thread. Very clever with some good points.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:38 | 1378511 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Beautiful! LMFAO

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:56 | 1378361 linrom
linrom's picture

Awesome, yet another spike into that farcical Chinese inspired fake capitalism: now exploiting human labor and capital. That's a twofer in the short-life category--even trumps Marx on the road to self-extinction.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:37 | 1378521 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Harpo, Beppo, Chico, Groucho or Zeppo??

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:08 | 1378618 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

It is called monopoly, hmmm, wonder how they got good at it?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:58 | 1378365 galis
galis's picture

Is there any etf that short those earth rare minerals?


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:01 | 1378371 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 14:57 | 1378372 SouthernX
SouthernX's picture

Charts forecasting a spike in Chinese REE IPO's, and dual listings. All guaranteed to make one milliom$!


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:00 | 1378384 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

I heard that RoboTard was finally banned. Is that true? There is hope for the world after all!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:03 | 1378389 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The sourcing problem has been known for years.

China has been accused of manipulation for years.

Green products, and hence green jobs, require these minerals.

The US congress authorized $787B in shovel-ready and green job BS.

How did this not make the cut?

This is a perfect example of where a no-bid, results-contingent government contract could have avoided a mess when a strategic weakness was identified years ago.  Too bad we have nothing but academic theory and fiat paper pimps in Washington.  You can't make an iPad with with rare-earth stocks.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:05 | 1378394 km4
km4's picture

YouTube - Rare Earth - (I Know) I'm Losing You (1970)

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:52 | 1378572 gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

++10:56 plus drum solo

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:19 | 1378436 Tunga
Tunga's picture

Neodymium, Lets see now that's either magnets or quartz doped crystals used by the NSA to time reverse light rays traversing the solar system allowing them to see the future more than 24 hours out now.


It's useful when betting on the winner of the Stanley Cup. 

Tunga is short time travel. Ask Joe Stack about it.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:19 | 1378452 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Meanwhile the COMEX continues to provide low low prices for silver even as their inventory is depleted.  I think they call it a going out of business sale.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:10 | 1378623 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

Yup, Liquidation!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:24 | 1378456 CapTool
CapTool's picture

We have huge reserves, US was largest producer until China undercut US mines on price, watch that change. All those metals are everywhere in salt flats or in NC

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 19:09 | 1379007 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 21:00 | 1379284 CapTool
CapTool's picture

There are a lot more, some of the best come from NC in an area where they probably arent going to allow mining, but if you are a rockhound you know that actual some of the best show up there. We were worlds largest miner there until 1970's, but it was tunnel mining, expensive and dangerous, then the big western mines opened up. China only became worlds supplier because they were cheap and have no environmental or safety standards. A lot of these are fairly toxic in powdered form. Like a lot of minerals they really aren't that rare, somehow we mined coal for hundreds of years with picks and shovels, but we need to knock down mountains now to do it cheaper, thats pretty much what the Chinese are doing, except scooping it up from flats.


Sat, 06/18/2011 - 00:29 | 1379605 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

Thank you for the link and the insight.

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 01:08 | 1379657 CapTool
CapTool's picture

No problem, You actually get big crystalline structures in NC, pretty rare and beautiful, so I would say they are prob in other Eastern mountain ranges also. It is all about cost though, If I were to look I 'd say start looking where the big lithium deposits were found in NC. 


Sat, 06/18/2011 - 01:17 | 1379678 CapTool
CapTool's picture   Good report no research done since 1981, its those secondary minerals we are talking about here mostly plus of course lithium is very important.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:33 | 1378506 Milestones
Milestones's picture

As someone has mentioned, there is apparantly  quite a bit of these so called rare earth materials in the western parts of Colorado. Course we are so Gawd Damn busy blowing everyone else up we don't have time to actually take care of things at home. 

What a F---in country!!     Milestones

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:39 | 1378525 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Maybe since China is playing hardball.........we could as well.

Like Potash, and Grains.

Trades bitchezz, or else.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 15:44 | 1378544 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Did anyone consider China could turn around and raise their exports of REEs? All they

have to do is wait until world wide projects are nearing completion and dump again.

It would make the producers have to close up shop because of price drop.


( ) yes or ( )no check only one please

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:05 | 1378605 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

You forgot to put "again" in bold.

There is a way around that, it's ugly, but it gets the job done, because the Chinese will repeat the maneuver they used to eliminate their competitors last time around.

Free trade ≠ Fair trade, you have to match your competitor's subsidies, in this case... it's ugly.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:13 | 1378633 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

Too big to play?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:18 | 1378642 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

Too big to play?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:31 | 1378681 Scribbles
Scribbles's picture

I tried investing in Rare Earth back then. Everyone said "REE" "Get REE"


Of course, somehow all they managed to do was nose-dive.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:27 | 1378683 Scribbles
Scribbles's picture

I tried investing in Rare Earth back then. Everyone said "REE" "Get REE"


Of course, somehow all they managed to do was nose-dive.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:29 | 1378689 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Thats where Gold and Silver are going. And about 10x more actually.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 16:37 | 1378705 Scribbles
Scribbles's picture

Looking further, all stocks and ETFs are flat on the year.

Did you guys buy physical lanthanum, or what? My dealer only had Lanthanum Eagles and the premium was too high.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:22 | 1378820 Yankee.go.home
Yankee.go.home's picture

Dacha Strategic Metals DSM.V has warehouses for REE material and has benefited. And me having cashed out of everything.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:56 | 1378854 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Coltan fueled the Iphone boom, and cost ~2.5 million lives. This demand peak will more than likely cost a little bit more [factor in a scale of x10 or even x100].

If I could be bothered, I'd dig out the research I did in 2007 for this -- the main issue is that (many) Australian & US production of rare earths are significantly more polluted than other sources [aka post mining purification costs, and the tech is dirty as hell if your source is non-pure], and become unacceptable in non-zero game industries [i.e. USA / Australia pops won't stomach the costs - although, look at shale ffs]. China hasn't got these socio-political issues, so remains the place to get them. Edit - do your research, the USA actually has quite respectable rare earth stocks [of certain of the elements] but they're all dirty bastard mixes, that produce a lot of nasties when refined. China has both pure veins, and no qualms about polluting the crap out of 1,000,000 km2 to get them. Wait.. Hello Canada?


Regarding Coltan -

For economic rather than ethical reasons, a shift is also being seen from traditional sources such as Australia, towards new suppliers such as Egypt.[36] This may have been brought about by the bankruptcy of the world's biggest supplier, Australia's Sons of Gwalia, although the company continues to produce and export ore.


Hmm. Why are we having a revolution again? Ernst & Young were involved in the collapse of the AU industry, so apply your tin foil now - it isn't only GS who gets to play big league, they just get the front page most of the time.


But whatever - China has been sitting on this (and has been known about) since the boom started [1993], and it is all factored in, at this point. "which has realized it has a complete monopoly on the supply" Pure unanalloyed bullshit - China has known about this for a decade, as have the people (industry) who use it. Pfft - Tyler, sometimes you have to cut the rhetoric otherwise you look silly - or should I say, you look a little too obvious for whom you're pumping stock for?


[edited for clarity - and no, sometimes these are not the trolls you're looking for, and will provide decent intel]

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:43 | 1378859 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Where can you buy a few bars of those oxides?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:45 | 1378864 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Best Rare Earth Metal:

ZeroHedgium Final dot.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:48 | 1378869 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I bought Neodymium magnets last year (after the ZH post) for post-Apacolypse wind turbines. I was afraid of this. Well, that's one less thing....

Kinda sucks now that official policy in the West is to go cold turkey off of fossil fuels. Obama just banned more exploration in Alaska. Brazil?  We already pay billions to help them drill anywhere they want.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 17:59 | 1378886 snarkolepsy
snarkolepsy's picture

I can't believe I read through 90+ comments on this post, and not one straight line correlation to the industry this will affect the most.

Not TV's. TV sales are flat to down.

It's Batteries. Specifically batteries for green cars. Lets see how those Volt sales go when the arguably most expensive component doubles in price.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 18:03 | 1378889 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Retarded crappy forum software.  -- aka, no, it is not about batteries, it is about your military hardware: derp.

Lanthanum night-vision goggles Neodymium laser range-finders, guidance systems, communications Europium fluorescents and phosphors in lamps and monitors Erbium amplifiers in fiber-optic data transmission Samarium pernament magnets that are stable at high temperatures Samarium precision-guided weapons Samarium "white noise" production in stealth technology


United States Usage
(2008 data)

Metallurgy & alloys

29% Electronics 18% Chemical Catalysts 14% Phosphors for monitors, television, lighting 12% Catalytic converters 9% Glass polishing 6% Permanent magnets 5% Petroleum refining 4% Other 3% 3%
Fri, 06/17/2011 - 18:21 | 1378931 trx
trx's picture

Now, bring me my Rare-Earth-Metal-Ion-Doped Inorganic Crystal Based Quantum Computer so I can beat those HFT bastards once and for all !!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 19:07 | 1379003 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

Do these prices make space mining profitable yet?


Is Sigourney going??

Sign me up!!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 21:02 | 1379286 snarkolepsy
snarkolepsy's picture

"no, it is notabout batteries, it is about your military hardware: derp."

Seriously? The data you provided was from the height of the market. Using 2008 data which would have been gathered before the crash. 2007 . The market is completely different. If you'd bothered to look for recent data, you'd see that China has been very open about the reason they are creating scarcity.

"However, China has recently reduced its quota of rare earth element exports, sending countries such as the U.S. and Japan into a panic. Due in part to its control over most of the world’s rare earth element supply, China’s own cleantech industry is booming. In order for other countries to stay in the game, rather than handing over almost all production of electronics and cleantech products over to China, they must find ways to loosen China’s stronghold over these materials."


Sat, 06/18/2011 - 18:32 | 1381205 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Yes, I did say "research I did in 2007" - batteries have been a constant since 2008, and aren't related to this sudden hike, imo.

Some thoughts, however:

#1 This has been known about for over 5 years. It isn't a new issue - and the production data was known back in 2007, and hasn't changed. i.e. China held the cards then, and still does now. Indeed, Ford itself highlighted in 2008 that batteries were the supply side issue for their cars. So, er... what's changed?

#2 USA can get REMs if it invests - which it will, given enough incentive. However, facilities might take 2-4 years to build [if they are to fulfill environmental regs]. See < -- May 2011 Alaska Governors' letter to DoE regarding REMs.

#3 X-47B & Phantom Ray - new military stealth tech is focused on drones. Requires REMs - esp. as drones are designed as 'cheap' [relative to F35s / mark V/VI planes, of course] and mass producible.

#4 Don't focus overly on hybrid batteries - I've read the GS .pdf on how to get the market to make the tech viable, but it isn't (apart from GS investment portfolios) the most important R&D side of Green tech - try that. And you'll see (again) it is samarium that is highlighted [note: as stated, also used in stealth tech]. Large Solar Arrays (as envisaged for the entire N.African desert for instance) , given your own nuclear sand-bag problems, might suddenly come into vogue again. I suspect they will.

#5 May 2011, China announced that (light)REMs were getting hit by a tax hike. Price rises will happen; I don't see a massive up-swell in Ford sales, given most of them are going from forecourt to forecourt.




Yes, I get your point, and I should have been less arrogant; however, I don't see this as related to a long term battery issue, imo. [Might be wrong - please provide info otherwise].






*Tin foil time - What did China get from Pakistan, recently, which might entail a lot of samarium being used?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 21:27 | 1379324 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Impressive moves but the global collapse will flatten the playing field.

Demand will decrease for all commodities and liquidity will evaporate.

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 04:58 | 1379825 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

LYC got pounded yesterday....and I have been wondering the same. Not got enough in there to worry about really though, so prob just gonna leave it on, just incase it goes bananas in the next coupla years or so...

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 11:23 | 1380127 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Who wants in on my Pree-Us Mining Co IPO? We plan on selling the results of stripping Prii of their batteries as well as kits that allow others to do the same.
Think of the look on your enviro-nazi neighbor's face when his car has to burn gas all the way to the Toyota dealer.

Don't dig in the ground, when there's plenty around!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!