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Ratio Of Insider Selling To Buying: 3,700 To 1

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This is kinda like if one is a 2nd year corp fin analyst, and just as the 300 tab excel model showing the massive synergies from the pitched M&A deal is supposed to be presented to the client, the whole thing #Refs out... And hasn't been saved for days. According to Bloomberg, in the last week the ratio of insider selling to buying on the S&P was 3,700x.... 3,700x!!!!!

Source: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:59 | 1445571 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

to quote Jamie & Little L-L-L-Loyd: "so??"

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:04 | 1445582 iNull
iNull's picture

It's a smart money/stupid money indicator (insiders are in the know). Usually pretty accurate, although is can be an early indicator of a selloff.

I've said on many threads that a major crash is coming no later than this fall and I still hold to that view.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:08 | 1445604 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

fully aware, thanks. and the mofo better come way sooner than this fall. was playing with Jamie & Lloyd - they could give a shit....they're already got "theirs"

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:10 | 1445611 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

I've been seeing these numbers up on ZH for a long time. I'm curious if this statistic has been logged over a historical period to know what is "normal". What was it like in the 90's when everybody was buying like crazy? Over what periods was it below 1?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:11 | 1445799 Cheater5
Cheater5's picture

Using the raw numbers here is massively misleading as it ignores that most sales by insiders are as a result of option grants (i.e., options exercised and shares sold immediately).

 

To get a useful number you need to either 1. do a lot of homework to net out these sales or 2. look to someone like InsiderScore to do it for you.

 

Assuming you got to the correct net/net number you would then also have to assume that insiders had material information that you didn't about market direction (which, in an era of very high correlations, they probably don't).  Where I have found these number useful is 1. as a confirmatory information in putting on pairs trades  and 2. looking to where selling stops (usually a sign of something positive about to happen - i.e., you can't overtly buy on inside information but nothing says that you have to sell ahead of what you (as an insider) consider to be good information).

 

I generally laugh when I see these stories on ZH as it confirms my view of ZH's tendancy to hyperventilate at the slightest whiff of bearishness.

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:29 | 1445854 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Or, and here's another though, you could actually do some homework, to find the answer to the simple question asked of you and sourced from a publication that has a tendancy to hyperventilate at the slightest whiff of bullishness.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:42 | 1445910 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Good for you Mr. Durden; that ought to shut him up for awhile. 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:11 | 1445944 Cheater5
Cheater5's picture

Gee.  Are you such a perma-bear that you can't handle any opposing views? 

FWIW, I'm no raging bull (I was lined up short today and took home mid-5 figures in my personal account - not counting the 2/20 from my fund), but I also understand that markets can go up in secular bear markets (hence the last couple of years) and if you are either a perma-bear or bull you are going to miss a lot of opportunities.

I guess I SHOULD just shut up (as you suggest) and let my trading programs take your money. 

Cheers.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:26 | 1446038 Raynja
Raynja's picture

you do realize the article said nothing about being bullish/bearish, you drew those conclusions yourself>?

tyler has posted insider ratios many times, granted it has only been the most  ridiculous ratios lately.

claiming profits in dollars and not % is meaningless to demonstrating how much better you are than the rest of us. speaking of which why is someone so blessed with market acumen even reading this commoner shit?

finally, you don't need a magic program or almost any intelligence to realize that a ratio this skewed is not normal.  it may not mean the market will crash tomorrow, next week, or next year, but it in no way shows insiders as having confidence that their stocks are accurately priced.  just because an executive receives options does not mean they are all going to sell week after week month after month.

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:21 | 1446372 Cheater5
Cheater5's picture

you do realize the article said nothing about being bullish/bearish, you drew those conclusions yourself>?

 

You're right.  I drew that conclusion on the basis of the wording of the post and my view of ZH's general bearish skew.

claiming profits in dollars and not % is meaningless to demonstrating how much better you are than the rest of us. speaking of which why is someone so blessed with market acumen even reading this commoner shit?

You are right again.  The percentage gain was actually very small (approx 100 bps) as  I had overhedged my long exposures to produce a very mild net short exposure.  My personal account trades tend to be day to day as opposed to my fund trades which are much more aggressive in terms of shorter trading time horizons and leverage.  Needless to say we were net short in the fund and did a little better than 100 bps (I have a very strict confi so cant talk about that more even if I wanted to).  My only point here was to establish the fact that I wasn't talking my book. 

As to why I read ZH.  I read a lot of sources, some of which I agree with and some I don't.  Reading ZH has given me good tradable ideas in the past and I will continue to read it (understanding it's bearish bias). 

finally, you don't need a magic program or almost any intelligence to realize that a ratio this skewed is not normal.

I'm not so sure about that.  Just looked at the overall InsiderScore data as of July 7 and it showed a slight bullish bias (see ISDR[GO] if you have a BB terminal).  As indicated above, I don't put that much faith in this data, but I have even less faith in the raw data cited by ZH (also FYI - the chart Tyler put in the comments sections seems to end in May).

just because an executive receives options does not mean they are all going to sell week after week month after month.

Actually, that is exactly what they tend to do.  You should take a look at 10b5-1 plans if you are interested in the dynamics here (see also my earlier point, and if my recollection is correct, 10b5-1 plan sales cancellations <> insider trading).  My overall point was that you need to filter out the planned/option exercise sales (and other factors) to get usable data here, and even when you get that data it has limited (NOTE not 0) usefulness regarding the overall market direction (however it does seem to be more useful in forecasting the  relative performance of individual names). 

In my opinion, the insider buying and selling data set has tradable information contained in it, but simply to post "3,700x.... 3,700x!!!!!" and let readers draw the simple conclusion that this is bearish is overly simplistic and potentially bad for the P&Ls of traders who may not have experience with this data set and its intricacies (BTW, we are a quant shop and we don't even crunch our own numbers in this area).  But if you disagree with me I'm not going to loose any sleep over it.

Well that's enough for the evening.  This has been an interesting diversion while watching all of the crashes on the Tour today (I had forgotten how tiring posting on ZH can be).  BTW, can you believe a press car hit two riders in the breakaway group today including new holder of the Polka-a-dot jersey.  Now THAT is F@#Kin ridiculous....

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:38 | 1446429 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Tyler is far to polite.. IMHO.. so I will say it, you are about to get caught in the next two weeks.. unless they announce a settlement for the debt ceiling.. the floor is going to disappear.. and you are not name brand enough to have your code on silicon. which for those that don't know what that means, he doesn't even have a chance at a chair when the music stops. so you dance instead of taking a vacation, lets hope that only the most polite people have trusted you with their money.. god forbid you have a client like me, who would have you fall on your own sword.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 23:27 | 1446590 Cheater5
Cheater5's picture

You obviously either 1. haven't been reading my posts or 2. don't have the analytical ability to understand even the simplified version of my argument that I have discussed above.  BTW, can you actually tell me what your logical issue is with the core of my argument?

You are obviously also a very angry person who spends way too much time on this site posting. 

Here is a shocker for you.  I was trying to be helpful to people (something I think I will avoid in the future) who haven't spent the last 20+ years of their lives in front of computer screens watching the market move tick by tick, and don't have exposure the the insider sales data set. 

Here is another shocker for you since your reading comprehension seems to be suspect.  I am net short in both my fund (in which btw I have a significant personal interest) and my personal account.  So unless you tell me that the OEX is going to be up 1000 bps overnight - I'm going to be sleeping fine.

BTW, thank you for your wishes of good luck in trading (not that I believe in luck but..).  It is so nice to see someone who is not suffering from a major case of anticipatory schadenfreude.  Please DO try to hold your breath until I am forced to liquidate my fund (an appropriate response given your apparent age).  I'm sure it won't be that long at all - I'll let you know.

Cheers.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 23:59 | 1446691 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

you can derive good information from anything you choose too..

my message was clear. You are the 13th man incue on a twelve man line.

I hope you are short oil.. I would hate for you to have to unwind all that would be sub second stuff you were lag-edout of to begin with.

Good Luck with the bullish, bearish approach. do you fuck your wife or does she fuck you? I only ask because you seem confused on a few things, I am wondering if your professional confusion carries over into you private life as well?

 

as long as you can afford it! as long as it is safe sex! have fun! you only live once.. but if you allow that ego to write checks your body cant cash with all the confusion that is in the market place right now.. well, I have warned you what could very well happen.

 

I will say it again, Better safe than sorry! Oil ='s the ONLY FED approved short.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 14:12 | 1448528 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

So you have lots of Fiat money, Booyar

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:43 | 1445911 Cheater5
Cheater5's picture

LMAO.  Mr Durden is nothing if not funny. 

On a more serious note, if you feel the need to trade on the basis of this chart  alone Tyler please feel free.  Good luck.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:46 | 1445921 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

On a most serious note, if you feel the need to trade on the basis of any chart alone or in tandem with any chart, not to mention any other data, real, imagined, or manipulated, please feel free. Good luck.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:54 | 1445950 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

on a 'less' serious note (not that any of this is actually funny)

"golden parachutes" & "golden showers" seem to be in high season...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:00 | 1445975 Cheater5
Cheater5's picture

if you feel the need to trade on the basis of any chart alone or in tandem with any chart, not to mention any other data, real, imagined, or manipulated, please feel free. Good luck.

 

That was sort of the point - I guess my sarcasm got lost in translation.

Have a good night.

 

 

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 21:08 | 1446146 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

You missed the point completely. This is not trading advice. Much here at ZH is the shining of light upon a very sick marketplace. It really is as simple as that.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:14 | 1446358 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Everyone missed it.. even Tyler because he works for a living..

 

Mr. 2/20 has to sell his clients on the fact that leaving money in the market when Pomo Lite (or the retirement funds, $62b left? ish?) is running out of gas, is the right thing to do.. thats how he makes his money, selling someone something.

 

I dont give a fuck if he brings me my coffee or has a float of my money.. the help is the help.

 

The fact that this Bloomberg info does carry an immense amount of weight with people who have money out and who cant be bothered to complete elongated mathematical equations.. is what the help, Mr. 2/20 is angry about. Tyler providing real, easy to digest information for those who wanna know but dont wanna know that much, is a God send.

 

So, Tyler! Thanks Bro! and dont worry about Mr. 2/20.. his paper wealth is at risk and as well his client base.

 

Toodles!

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:59 | 1446504 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWfDm_bqwUU&feature=share

Did Positive Thinking Wreck the Economy? - Barbara Ehrenreich
Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:52 | 1447289 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Cheater5  -  your original point was the S&P's insider selling to buying ratio of 3,700 to 1 is "massively misleading". That's the numbers (facts). How precisely have you been misled?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:02 | 1445972 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

Mr Durden

First of all, I really love your website, and I'm more than a little excited to make new friends around here.  I haven't been this excited since I joined the Verizon Friends and family program.

Secondly, over the past year, this chart shows no real conviction one way or the other. However, equities have had a nearly uninterrupted 25% climb that would qualify as one of the most bulletproof bull markets in history.

So.... all I can really deduce from this chart is that the insider buying/selling ratios have utterly no relevance whatsoever.

Was this the point of the article?  That insider transactions mean nothing?

- Max Fischer, Civis Mundi

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:28 | 1446051 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The point of the article is that there were 3,700 more insider sales than buys in the past week. If you feel that data is irrelevant, you should probably ignore the weekly post that looks at insider selling and sometimes occasional buying.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:35 | 1446067 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

Ok... that was very clear.  In the future, I will ignore it.

Thank you. 

- Max Fischer, Civis Mundi

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 21:22 | 1446177 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Yourself and Cheater5 are failing to connect with Tyler amid the nuance of marketplace vs. market price, they are distinct and do not necessarily correlate with one another. 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:32 | 1446405 Cheater5
Cheater5's picture

I don't understand what you are getting at with your statement.  Are you saying that insicer sales data indicates some sort of market dislocation that is not yet reflected in the price data?  If so that was never my point.   My point all along has been that the raw data (which, unless someone corrects me, is what I assume is ZH has been quoting) can be massively misleading (see above). 

But hey, I'm always ready to be proved wrong.  If someone has a study that shows a statistically significant correlation (or, better yet, a lagged correlation) with the raw data and index prices and the kurtosis isn't to high, I'm all ears.

 

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:17 | 1446365 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Max Fischer
on Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:35
#1446067

 

Ok... that was very clear.  In the future, I will ignore it.

Thank you. 

- Max Fischer, Civis Mundi

*********************************************************

 

How much did POMO effect that 25% bull market?

 

If POMO is drying up.. and people are pulling the eject switch..

 

I guess you are one of those cases of "You cant fix Stupid".

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:38 | 1446422 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

POMO?

Tyler made it very clear a few weeks ago that POMO doesn't exist.  All the QE2 money went to foreign banks. 

- Max Fischer, Carpe Hunc

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:42 | 1446443 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

with all of the charts of who bought and who sold back.. can you source me a foreign name? thanks for playing.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:48 | 1446466 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

Is Cheater overlooking the main point? There can be a million reasons that an insiders sells...to raise money for a million different things...diversify...etc. But there is only one reason on this earth why an insider would buy his own stock...he thinks he will make money and they are not and have not been doing this for a while.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 23:52 | 1446648 Cheater5
Cheater5's picture

I don't think I'm overlooking the main point.  While I generally agree with you on purchases (putting aside what I suspect are the statistically insignificant senior executive buys to bolster confidence and .....).  You still need to look at the numerator and filter the data on sales.  In order to assume that the raw data sells/buys fraction is useful, you would have to assume that the planned insider sales data is not lumpy (i.e., that all weeks have a statistically insignificant variation in the amount of planed insider sales for that week so that you could essentially ignore them and use the week to week delta's in both the insider sales and buys as the relevant data).  I'm reasonably sure this is not true and even then you are effectively filtering the data. 

Again, I'm NOT saying that the insider sales data is irrelevant, what I am saying is that it needs to be filtered to be relevant.  And then even if it is filtered it doesn't necessarily have a high correlation to OVERALL market returns as opposed to individual name relative performance.  Consider thinking about it this way - corporate executives know their business and their expected cash flows, but they are not necessarily good traders of the market as a whole.  So hypothetically if you get a lot of net insider buying in say Apple vs a lot of net insider selling in Rimm, you might consider doing a pairs trade long AAPL/short RIMM, but you may not want to go out and start buying massive amounts of S&P futures.

Cheers.

 

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:37 | 1447251 o2sd
o2sd's picture

If you have any data showing this ratio (bearish or bullish) occurring in the past, please share.

Again, I'm NOT saying that the insider sales data is irrelevant, what I am saying is that it needs to be filtered to be relevant.  And then even if it is filtered it doesn't necessarily have a high correlation to OVERALL market returns as opposed to individual name relative performance.

Sounds like sophisty.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:32 | 1446062 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

WTF is wrong with you ??  The amount of one sided insider trading across all these different businesses is an indication of what these Companies management thinks about the future of their stock. Why the fuck would they sell their options if they thought the stock would be going up any time soon.  Better yet, why not correlate the massive insider selling with which companies are doing stock buybacks at the same time ( in order to prop the price up while the insiders dump theirs ).  Yeah , you cant trade based on this factor alone, but it does help formulate a better informed macro view.  Keep up the ass kicking work Tyler, thank you.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 21:35 | 1446213 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Your economy of words is a thing of beauty.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 23:00 | 1446511 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

Why the fuck would they sell their options if they thought the stock would be going up any time soon....

Perhaps you could ask Steve Jobs the same question.  When AAPL was at $250, Jobs "worst trade ever" was calculated to be a $10.3B mistake.  So with AAPL at ~$350, it's quickly approaching a $15B-20B mistake. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apples-steve-jobs-blunders-on-options-s...

Insider selling/buying is rarely an indication of what executives think about their stock.  Did Dick Fuld sell?  What about Jimmy Cayne? Chuck Prince?  There are thousands of examples of executives selling years too early, and thousands of examples of them keeping shares straight into bankruptcy. Not to state the obvious, but if the executive sells before negative material information is publicly disclosed, he goes to jail.  So how reliable can this ratio possibly be?

For you to get hooked on such a transparent propaganda piece speaks volumes about you.

- Max Fischer, Carpe Hunc 

 

 

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 04:18 | 1446786 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Sigmund Freud, of course, made the same mistake as you; viz., he tried to draw general conclusions from a few, specific, aberrant examples. In other words, from a few wackadoodle patients, he concluded that all men want to sleep with their mothers. Well, for one, I know that I do not. (Although I do want to sleep with your mother, maybe.)

As he once told his daughter: "Sometimes a cigar, Ingrid ... is just a cigar."

Oh, by the way, I really am not sure what lesson can be drawn from Steve Jobs not knowing back IN MARCH 2003 that Apple was going to hit $250 or $350 or anything close. Not only did his decision predate the undeniably surprising successes of the ipad, iphone, and all the other icrap, but the current valuation is even so absurd and artificial, and it would have seemed only more so back then. Sheesh. Next you're going to criticize and/or try to draw some lesson from the fact that my grandfather did not purchase ALL of Boca Raton back in the thirties for the pittance it was offered to him then?

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:08 | 1445995 double 007
double 007's picture

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 23:01 | 1446516 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Cheater5
on Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:11
#1445799

 

Using the raw numbers here is massively misleading as it ignores that most sales by insiders are as a result of option grants (i.e., options exercised and shares sold immediately).

 

To get a useful number you need to either 1. do a lot of homework to net out these sales or 2. look to someone like InsiderScore to do it for you.

 

Assuming you got to the correct net/net number you would then also have to assume that insiders had material information that you didn't about market direction (which, in an era of very high correlations, they probably don't).  Where I have found these number useful is 1. as a confirmatory information in putting on pairs trades  and 2. looking to where selling stops (usually a sign of something positive about to happen - i.e., you can't overtly buy on inside information but nothing says that you have to sell ahead of what you (as an insider) consider to be good information).

 

I generally laugh when I see these stories on ZH as it confirms my view of ZH's tendancy to hyperventilate at the slightest whiff of bearishness.

***************************************************************

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWfDm_bqwUU&feature=share

Did Positive Thinking Wreck the Economy? - Barbara Ehrenreich
Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:21 | 1446878 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

In this case the raw numbers are not massively misleading.

In the entire corporate universe of US listed and SEC regulated companies- a grand total of 3 firms had insider buying valued at a combined USD70,750 (i.e. less than the median single household income in Switzerland).

It just depends on what you look at within the raw numbers. 

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 21:33 | 1446210 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I agree with you, I believe a major crash is coming this fall that will harken back to Dow 6,450 in 2009 or more.   

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:40 | 1447639 Jalaluddin
Jalaluddin's picture

So: My brother believes the sky is about to fall.

I also believe the sky will fall, but just when is the question.

They say that a drowning person comes up for air three times - so get out your slide-rules.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:00 | 1445577 Greenhead
Greenhead's picture

I guess some folks don't believe in QE3.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:03 | 1445588 centerline
centerline's picture

Or the money is best speculated somewhere other than long equities.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:06 | 1445595 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Yeah, like hookers and blow.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:13 | 1445619 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

+3700

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 21:09 | 1446151 PC Load Letter
PC Load Letter's picture

+ 2 and 20

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:00 | 1445579 Misean
Misean's picture

Holy crap! Someone's buying! Better load up while the gettin's good.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:06 | 1445597 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Smart money....Cha....sarc off....

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:03 | 1445587 egdeh orez
egdeh orez's picture

300 tab excel... #ref... brings back really bad memories!

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:28 | 1445846 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Although it was many years ago,  the panic of my #ref moment is seared in my memory.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:05 | 1445593 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

This is a bullish contrarian indicator. BTFD.

A new generation of bagholders need a lesson in Ponzinomics.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:07 | 1445599 free_as_in_beer
free_as_in_beer's picture

Why buy shares when you can just award yourself more for free?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:34 | 1445687 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

+1000... 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:56 | 1445962 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Why work or innovate when you can just 'gut' your company from it's innards & sell to Brian Sack?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:08 | 1445601 caerus
caerus's picture

Nice!  Wonder how many of these stocks are at or near all time highs...CMG? check.  NFLX? check...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:09 | 1445609 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

They are all generating cash to go long the Facebook IPO.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:45 | 1445915 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 LOL. Well, somebody will have to buy it.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:12 | 1445618 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Outstanding!

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:15 | 1445623 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

This insider buying/selling ratio is very misleading, and provides very little insight on whether or not an executive has faith in the share price of his company. 

Where are the charts that show how much compensation was paid to executives in the form of stock awards?

In January, Lloyd Blankfein was awarded $12.6M in GS stock. The only time this stock would appear in these buying/selling ratios would be on the sell side. If executives like Blankfein thought their stock was over-priced (as these articles about buying/selling ratios are trying to imply), they wouldn't be taking large portions of their income as such. 

These stock awards happen a thousand times a year.

- Max Fischer, Civis Mundi

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:19 | 1445634 Misean
Misean's picture

" they wouldn't be taking large portions of their income as such."

Horseshit. Of course they would. It's the only way to get the big lootz these days, and it makes your income cap gains, which is a lower tax rate.

As well, given that the return on cash is below the rate of inflation, if divi's and stock prices were higher than real inflation, why sell?

Really poor statement there, bud.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:02 | 1445980 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

+1

These days... Stock awards are sol to Brian Sack at the first opportunity... The proceeds are then use to fill pallets full of metal ingots in warehouses in downtown detroit, or stuff container ships full of crude in Singapore harbor...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:16 | 1445626 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Why are there even any insiders left after all this insider selling for months now ?

 

Who is an insider anyway ?

I know that I am an outsider.

I want in.

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:17 | 1445629 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Just in case anybody has doubts [about what's wrong], here's an anecdote. Before the 2007-08 deal, I was perusing "insiders" for fun, and I witnessed this: some Mid-size oil company exec "exercised his option" on some shares, sold them the next day and took in $2 fucking million. TWO MILLION A DAY. Now, that's just one pip-squeak among thousands, of individuals and transactions. You wonder why we got "problem"?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:19 | 1445637 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Triple H.

Hang him higher.

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:19 | 1445635 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

leo says its a great time to buy........

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:05 | 1445989 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Leo still thinks this is the 70's and he's 'Scaramanga'...

Someone give him a 'purple nurple' on his 'superfluous papilla'

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:21 | 1445641 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Hurry Sell, Sell, Sell! the Retirement Fund is almost dry!

 

http://www.bargaineering.com/articles/feds-use-retirement-funds-to-finance-spending.html sorry that was back in 2006..

 

Today, very quietly, the Treasury released its latest refunding announcement, in which it disclosed it would issue another $66 billion in 3, 10 and 30 Year notes next week. The irony of course is that the US is and continues to be at its debt ceiling limit (or just $25 million short of it), at a total of $14,293,975 million. Furthermore, as was also disclosed by the Treasury, this gross issuance will also be the net amount added in marketable debt, as upon settlement on June 15, there will be no redemptions of maturing bonds. Which simply means that the continued "disinvesting" (which is merely a polite word for plundering) from intragovernmental debt, also known as retirement accounts, is about to kick into high gear. As a reminder, the only solution that Geithner currently has to run the government, at least until August 2 when even this runs out, is to slowly drain the debt in non-marketable accounts, in the form of Suspension of G-Fund and ESF reinvestments, as well as the Redemption and suspension of of CSRDF Investments, measure which when combined will provide a short-term buffer of $232 billion.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-continues-dip-retirement-accounts-prepares-take-out-66-billion-chunk-make-space-new

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:24 | 1445649 kito
kito's picture

tyler, correct me if im wrong, historically, this is not an accurate indicator of where stocks are heading. its about sentiment, which can turn on a dime. i believe in late 2009 insider selling was rampant, and the market clearly hasnt followed those footsteps.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:44 | 1445725 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

kito, correct me if im wrong, you have ulterior motives for posting here.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:50 | 1445738 kito
kito's picture

ive already been outted as a double secret agent for the global banking cartel kleptocracy. im of rothschild blood. tyler is ok with it.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:18 | 1445820 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Never noticed what a rots child turd looked like until now...and hey, I am ok with it too!

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:20 | 1446028 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Glad you're here secret agent man.

I mean no offense.

You just raise my ignorant hackles like few others.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:11 | 1445998 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

correct me if I'm wrong, but...

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot gives a FF where 'stocks' are heading?

does anybody (except for the aforementioned clowns [who, BTW, are selling @ 3,700-1], or alligator algos even own these things for more than a coupla nonoseconds anymore?)

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 21:24 | 1446186 o2sd
o2sd's picture

its about sentiment

First post here ... solve the captcha ... k .. good.

My opinion would be that if the ratio was 22:1 or 50:1 or 100:1, you could say that it was a bearish sentiment.

3700:1 though .... looks like consensus to me.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:21 | 1446376 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

welcome to the common sense club..

no worries! here like every where else!! common sense is not so common!

so it is nice to have another logical person to speak with.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:17 | 1447216 o2sd
o2sd's picture

Hey, thanks for the welcome.

Looking at the data the first time, I thought "Is this just some abberation?" but looking closely at the numbers, I get the feeling that it definitely is not.

This is a rush to the exits. Or a classic pump n dump. Fed pumps, corporate holders dump.

Oddly enough, I think Netflix will be the beneficiary of any crash. I remember in my home town back in the 80s when the steelworks laid off 10,000, the local television station really picked up in viewership and revenue. Average daytime viewing increased by about 10,000.

 

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:50 | 1446400 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by kito
on Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:24
#1445649

 

tyler, correct me if im wrong, historically, this is not an accurate indicator of where stocks are heading. its about sentiment, which can turn on a dime. i believe in late 2009 insider selling was rampant, and the market clearly hasnt followed those footsteps.

*********************************************************

 

so either you are believing that your positive vibes are going to some how carry you safely thru to the other side..

or you have a client base that needs to be sold on the idea that being in the market right now is safe..

before the fall off the cliff, that is about to happen.. I would encourage you to get out of the market.. go take a vacation for 2 weeks.. and please dont lose a large amount of anyone else's money.. people sometimes take that pretty seriously.

 

Better safe than sorry, when it comes to the FED running low on POMO monies.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:59 | 1446509 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWfDm_bqwUU&feature=share

Did Positive Thinking Wreck the Economy? - Barbara Ehrenreich
Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:26 | 1445650 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

"This is kinda like if one is a 2nd year corp fin analyst, and just as the 300 tab excel model showing the massive synergies"

Excel?  In 1990 I was using Stern/Stewart to model mergers.  I guess I had it easy. 

 

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:29 | 1445661 sabra1
sabra1's picture

that one person was robotrader buying lululemon!

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:50 | 1445932 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 LOL! 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:33 | 1445680 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Corporate insiders have finally gotten the message from the Barnank and TimmyG - why not sell sell sell when the (lack of) laws allow you to replace what you sold with an inkjet printer? The Fed is a massive ponzi so why should corporate Amerika not follow the pattern?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:34 | 1445688 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Corporate Amerikkka s a bunch of golf playing fascists.

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:34 | 1445690 chump666
chump666's picture

yeah and we are not even half way through a 20 to 30% correction

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:35 | 1445692 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Well that explains the shortage of Mountain House foods.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:38 | 1445704 chump666
chump666's picture

oh on the fed and any QE3, it will have to be a trillion + for any new highs.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:14 | 1445807 Diablo
Diablo's picture

lotus 1-2-3, bitchez!

 

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 06:50 | 1447066 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Improv was a much better product.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:17 | 1445817 shortus cynicus
shortus cynicus's picture

Isn't that a new normal permanent high plateau?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:27 | 1445844 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

I question this article's validity, as "Source: Bloomberg" is reminiscent of an eighth-grade English student claiming he found something in Time magazine.  Without a month, year, or page number.  When I attempted to Google this data from Bloomberg, I got 12 other websites citing this ZH posting as authoritative.

 

I love ZH, but allowing posts like this is bullshit.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:33 | 1445866 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You do realize there is free Bloomberg and there is paid Bloomberg data that is only available to subscribers of the service. Right? And in case this comes as a shock, here is what you would see if you could afford the $2000/month service. Also, for the dumb 8th grade student, please advise how one should reference a page number on a website. We eagerly await your input. In the meantime, if you prefer data that is pendantically and methodically sourced with foot and endnotes for your recreative pleasure, may we point you to the general direction of Paul Krugman and other Nobel Prize winners?

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE

Weekly Insider Buying and Selling by S&P 500
Companies

2011-07-11 12:00:17.434 GMT

 

By Bloomberg News

     July 11
(Bloomberg) -- Following is a list of companies in the Standard & Poor's
500 Index with shares bought and sold during the week ending July 8.

     The figures
are compiled from Securities and Exchange Commission filings by Washington
Service.

 

*T

 

TOTAL PURCHASES BY INSIDERS

        

                                           
Amount        # of       Avg.$  

Tkr.     Company
Name                    Bought($)      Shares      /Share

=============================================================================

EQT      EQT
Corp                          
36,817         701       52.52

PNC      PNC
Financial Services Grou       
24,580         410       59.95

BBY      Best Buy
Co Inc                     9,353         299       31.28

 

TOTAL SALES BY INSIDERS

        

                                           
Amount        # of       Avg.$  

Tkr.     Company
Name                      Sold($)      Shares      /Share

=============================================================================

GOOG     Google
Inc                     45,385,686      85,388      531.52

APOL     Apollo
Group Inc               27,422,578     580,444       47.24

CMG      Chipotle
Mexican Grill Inc     24,825,897      80,000      310.32

MMM      3M Co                          16,411,467     172,750       95.00

QCOM     Qualcomm
Inc                   14,730,739     256,500       57.43

NVDA     NVIDIA
Corp                    10,450,998     668,248       15.64

DRI      Darden Restaurants Inc          8,334,660     156,863       53.13

BBBY     Bed Bath
& Beyond Inc           7,106,343     120,000       59.22

NKE      NIKE
Inc                        6,673,545      74,000       90.18

DFS      Discover
Financial Services     6,024,306     225,526       26.71

BMC      BMC
Software Inc               
5,680,784     101,860       55.77

PLL      Pall
Corp                       5,174,873      90,186       57.38

NTAP     NetApp
Inc                      5,023,775      92,721    
  54.18

FII      Federated
Investors Inc         4,999,331     208,797       23.94

GILD     Gilead
Sciences Inc             4,819,341     115,320       41.79

JBL      Jabil
Circuit Inc               4,673,442     232,900       20.07

MKC.V    McCormick
& Co Inc/MD           4,361,801      87,826       49.66

JWN      Nordstrom
Inc                   3,947,555      78,612       50.22

BCR      CR Bard
Inc                     3,335,143      30,000      111.17

ORCL     Oracle
Corp                     3,210,675      97,500       32.93

AMT      American
Tower Corp             3,197,346      60,000       53.29

EW       Edwards
Lifesciences Corp       3,095,043      35,000       88.43

VAR      Varian
Medical Systems Inc      2,890,088      40,950       70.58

YHOO     Yahoo!
Inc                      2,610,354     166,500       15.68

A        Agilent
Technologies Inc        2,570,487      49,884       51.53

WPO      Washington
Post Co/The          2,422,172       5,732      422.57

HCP      HCP
Inc                         2,210,840      58,180       38.00

SYK      Stryker
Corp                    2,155,856      36,000       59.88

NFLX     Netflix
Inc                     1,826,067       6,286      290.50

AN       AutoNation
Inc                  1,804,461      46,472       38.83

MKC      McCormick
& Co Inc/MD           1,763,082      35,517       49.64

BLL      Ball
Corp                       1,692,684      43,000       39.36

PCS      MetroPCS
Communications Inc     1,682,553      94,905       17.73

BIG      Big Lots Inc                    1,491,639      44,000       33.90

DGX      Quest
Diagnostics Inc/DE        1,456,703      24,705       58.96

CAH      Cardinal
Health Inc             1,430,042      30,826       46.39

SYMC     Symantec
Corp                   1,380,239      70,000       19.72

CTL     
CenturyLink Inc                
1,312,485      32,500       40.38

ICE     
IntercontinentalExchange In    
1,266,684       9,900      127.95

MAT      Mattel
Inc                      1,260,414      45,000    
  28.01

NEE      NextEra
Energy Inc              1,158,240      20,000       57.91

HCN      Health
Care REIT Inc            1,153,494      22,056       52.30

DELL     Dell
Inc                        1,020,036      60,000       17.00

YUM      Yum!
Brands Inc                   995,798      17,700       56.26

APA      Apache
Corp                       963,997       7,850      122.80

AAPL     Apple
Inc                         853,685       2,500      341.47

FDX      FedEx
Corp                        850,327       8,821       96.40

DIS      Walt
Disney Co/The                798,500      20,000       39.92

TIF      Tiffany
& Co                     
773,430       9,750       79.33

MWV     
MeadWestvaco Corp                 772,718      22,727       34.00

ADSK     Autodesk
Inc                      741,563      18,750       39.55

RRC      Range
Resources Corp              710,845      12,579       56.51

KR       Kroger
Co/The                     577,355      23,222       24.86

TWC      Time
Warner Cable Inc             570,000       7,125       80.00

F        Ford Motor
Co                     532,760      38,000       14.02

HRL      Hormel
Foods Corp                 529,236      17,600       30.07

AES      AES Corp/The                      504,400      38,800       13.00

FLIR     FLIR
Systems Inc                  501,600      15,000       33.44

M        Macy's
Inc                        435,764      14,500       30.05

CBS      CBS
Corp                          430,913      15,173       28.40

TYC      Tyco
International Ltd            273,938       5,540       49.45

TLAB     Tellabs
Inc                       267,847      57,853        4.63

JDSU     JDS
Uniphase Corp                
265,064      16,000       16.57

AZO      AutoZone Inc                      216,477         725      298.59

NWSA     News
Corp                         210,977      11,682       18.06

PFG      Principal
Financial Group I       197,317       6,586       29.96

DVA      DaVita
Inc                        188,037       2,152       87.38

LLY      Eli Lilly
& Co                    186,000       5,000       37.20

ADI      Analog
Devices Inc                180,623       4,545       39.74

MET      MetLife
Inc                       174,480       4,000    
  43.62

KMX      CarMax
Inc                        159,427       4,759       33.50

BTU      Peabody
Energy Corp               140,515       2,313       60.75

NDAQ     NASDAQ OMX
Group Inc/The          126,200       5,000       25.24

RTN      Raytheon
Co                       100,000       2,000       50.00

CL      
Colgate-Palmolive Co              
88,620       1,000       88.62

CRM     
Salesforce.com Inc                
78,645         500      157.29

CME      CME Group
Inc                      76,425         267      286.24

HAR      Harman
International Indust        74,965       1,608       46.62

IGT     
International Game Technolo       
65,619       3,700       17.73

DTE      DTE Energy
Co                      64,715       1,272       50.88

DV       DeVry
Inc                          62,000       1,000       62.00

PAYX     Paychex
Inc                        18,978         600       31.63

KLAC     KLA-Tencor
Corp                    17,568         426       41.24

PNC      PNC Financial
Services Grou        14,306         240       59.61

AMD      Advanced
Micro Devices Inc          6,990       1,000        6.99

PRU      Prudential
Financial Inc            3,370          53       63.59

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:53 | 1445943 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Well. that ought to shut him up, too! I like the post because I'm already short the DJIA from 12,700; but of course, I might not like it so much next week !

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 21:32 | 1446207 o2sd
o2sd's picture

Did Project Mayhem get corporate sponsorship after Tyler was escorted from the building? Or does ZH pay for your Bloomberg subscription?

 

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:15 | 1446347 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Don't let these people draw you in Tyler, you'll weaken your own voice. Remain clear and don't dabble in the minueta of every posters opinion. The basic idea of the article is clear. However you seem to have been paying more heed to the fact that many here may perhaps risk money and lose it due to failure to understand your advice. You have never bent to simplify your articles or site, and that is ultimately why your service stands out. It is a struggle to learn and I for one can say I did in fact lose money not entirely understanding what I was doing, but I would not even have tried without access to a source of information with the quality level of ZH without having the income to afford expensive info sources. Thank you for all you have done. ZH speaking the truth is what gave me the will to take on these markets, and gave me the commitment to learn to trade. I don't know if I will get good at it this year or 5 years from now, but I will eventually money will not be a problem for me, and I think I can thank you for that. Truth in finance is something only found in crisis it seems, and ZH I think will be unique to this time.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 12:12 | 1447977 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Thanks TD.

 

And to those of you who read my critique as me being a perma-bull.  What?  I made my point that TD was unspecific in his source, and I did it in a smart-ass fashion.

 

Then TD tells me more info than in his original post, and does so in a smart-ass fashion.  Case closed.  If he'd included that info in his OP, I wouldn't have made such an AH out of myself ASAP.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 20:18 | 1446021 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

cut him some slack Ty... :-)

'Geoff(ry)' here, is just the UK version of the 'Toys-R-Us' giraffe... He's trying to appeal to the kiddies in advance of the IPO...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:26 | 1446391 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

you perma bull people.. who get up and read that power of positive speaking book every morning while jerking off.. are going to lose a lot of money in the next 2 weeks.

 

Quote me!

 

anyone that has a penny in the market, right now.. is fucking beyond stupid, think crash test dummy.. and please lets not forget! Oil is the only FED approved short!

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:34 | 1445868 Cynical Centaur
Cynical Centaur's picture

I'm glad that i'm out of debt, have some PM's and out of the stock market.It isn't enough.

The HFT and other fractal algos make the market very chaotic. If some genius has the mathmatics to harness zero point energy, they could harness semi-random, human greed induced price noise signal. Need some killer parallel computer app, oh well.

I have been waiting for this whole fiat market to implode.

I hate not having employment. It doesn't look like that is going to improve anytime soon. The f*#$ elite, I have had WAY MORE THAN ENOUGH of these fallen people. I can at least enjoy a nice day or enjoy the beautie of a butterfly in the garden.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 01:12 | 1446807 chump666
chump666's picture

insider sell-buy ratio every trader should acknowledge that. since a sideways market for last 6mths.  with thin marked up distribution trades and multiple selling to every buyer is so bearish.  The correction that is occurring now, should last for a little longer.  Market was too thin and sellers were getting out for months. 

keep up the good work ZH

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