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RE Update - "Strip and Boil Baby"
Interesting article from Reuters this morning on rare earths (Link):
As the headline suggests the department of Energy is fronting $30mm for
experimentation to come up with an alternative to RE metals. That would
be a kick in the head for some of those high-flying stocks that are a
bet on the RE mania. My guess is that any breakthrough on this is
unlikely to happen anytime soon. At best, the amount of RE metals used
in creating individual magnets will become more efficient. That would
stretch out existing supplies a bit, but demand for this stuff just
keeps rising. Some quotes from the article I thought were interesting :
Bullish
“Access to shrinking and restricted supplies of rare earths could hinder the ability of U.S. manufacturers to compete worldwide”, Energy Secretary, Steven Chu.
DOE:
"As demand for these [clean] technologies continues to increase, rare
earths are rapidly becoming more expensive due to limited global supply —
prices of many have increased 300 to 700 percent in the past year.
"As there is more and more demand [for clean technologies] it therefore makes sense to worry about the future of rare earths." George Hadjipanayis, physicist, University of Delaware.
Neodymium — the basis of 90 percent of permanent magnets used in EV and turbine technologies — will surpass supply in the next ten years, and dysprosium would face a major shortage by 2015 if demand doubles in that time.
Bearish
The United States consumes about 10,000 metric tons of rare earths annually, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
The United States could offset supply restraints by ramping up mining of the 13 million metric tons of rare earth minerals that are spread across 14 states.
The next generation of wind turbine and electric car parts could be rare earth-free, if the United States succeeds in its push to produce clean technologies without the crucial metallic elements.
Stupid
GE Global Research received $2.25 million in support last year for research.
If there is 13mm tonnes of RE in the USA we really should not have a problem. But the environmental impacts and the Not In My Back Yard problems will stall any effort in all 14 states. I wonder if the next “Drill Baby Drill” will be “Strip (mining) & Boil (in acid) Baby”.
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thanks bruce good update
I actually bought some neodymium magnets already so I can build my own wind generator this summer. Saw the prices going nuts.
Prices on everything are going nuts because the eco-nazis are shuttung down the West.
This is actually rather reasonable research money. Compare it to the billions pissed down the drain for unbelievably stupid reasons by the NIH, DOE, NIH, CDC, etc. There isn't anyone with a PhD in this country who hasn't watched hundreds of millions pissed away in fruitless endeavors while worthwhile research is left high and dry. The biggest waste of R&D money is in the Pentagon. At least half a trillion dollars has been spent on battlefield communications and now all our soldiers are issued cell phones. Need I say more? ANyone else feel this way?
The Dept of Energy only has one program, hot fusion. It has spent over 5 decades trying to create and contain a reaction hotter than the sun. So far they are only a decade away from sucess, of course they have always been a decade from sucess and will likely continue until some one begins selling cold fusion reactors at which point the whole affair will become moot and someone will abscond with the loot.
Billions for defense, but only a few tens of millions for infrastructure. I guess we won't need the interstates once oil is priced around 25$ a gallon, but a few high speed trains might be nice since they use less fuel than jets and a lot less maintenance.
We have a multi-trillion dollar equity market, that only invests in equities, nobody invests in research, bottom line is the death of long term thinking and financing.
We better hope an intergalactic spaceship crashes and we can pick its bones and reverse engineer it, cause we seem to be running out of common sense abilities like investing in our own future by researching and building the things we all need.
$30 Million in DOE Grants for Green Technologies Free of Common Earth Element NIMBY.
$40 Million in DOE Grants for Green Vehicle Technologies Free of Wheels that Touch the Ground and Lose Energy to Friction.
$50 Million in DOE Grants for Green Vehicle Technologies Free of Earth Materials That Have Mass or Weight and Thus Reduce Gas Mileage.
$60 Million in USDA Grants for Green Agricultural Technologies Free of Soil Disturbance.
Once again, Rare Earths are not that rare. What makes them difficult to get are environmental regulations on mining practices required to extract them. The funding looks like a good idea, but in reality, most will be wasted away in some universities lab while the profs are doing the coeds.
Strip and boil sounds like the boiler room call at Deutsche Bank mortgage origination.
Only sued today by the US for a billion bucks, for doin God's work lying cheating and stealing.
How much TARP did Deutsche Bank end up with?!
Next step is to liquidate their depositors and kill that bank.
Don't bank there and don't do business with those fucks who do.
Is it a war trade yes or no? Obviously people keep being surprised by commodity surges with Molycorp being the most extraordinary. In other words "i totally agree with the thesis" but "wars create a hoarding mentality." I'm still trying to figure out what happens to "the debt thingy" once "the Mongolian Horde" crosses "the Rubicon."
that made my head hurt
damn it damn it damn it......just last night i brought forward my stock of old HDD's.spent 4 fuggin hours moving the shit to the front of the strip line....was trying to decide between the hdd's and the gems in the scrap jewerly...picked the HDD's...now i may as well put them back for another 5yrs. the gems just aint got the luster they had a few years back. hmmm maybe i should be looking at either the aluminum or copper instead, or the steel..its to heavy to be easily transported anyhow. with fuel going up, cost to recycle it is gonna have an impact soon enough.
Rare Earths are critical to many defense technologies. They would have spent many times $30 million looking for something else to use.
This funding is basically throwing a bone to someone. You won't see anything of significance coming from this investment.
I suspect it will buy some lab equipment that can be used for other purposes.
Cooking crystal meth in the guest bathroom on Christmas Eve with your mother. "Mom! Where the fuck's the Brillo, you skank."
Already happening
http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Is-Alternative-Energy-Really-at-the-Mercy-of-Rare-Earth-Elements.html
bullish.
http://pesn.com/2011/04/30/9501820_QM_Power_Commercializing_Flynns_OU_Pa...
Just legislate more efficient magnets, and viola!
So, huh...
Should I begin to hoard broken hard disks for the neodymium magnets?
Don't laugh...actually heard of this.
What's so special about neodymium that can't be fixed by a lump of silver?
Why is it that in every case where there needs to be cooperation between governments and people to accomplish a goal (for example, the need to find or find a substitute for Rare Earth Metals) all we ever get is selfishness and greed, and intense effort in denying others access to what is needed, supplies, and or the technology to work out a solution.
It seems to me that it was not always like this, or not to this degree.
Good question. Is there a way of finding a compromise in this maze, between economic efficiency and ecological efficiency combined with ecological ideology, which is understandable but not realistic...There seems to be a breakdown in government and business circles in their ability to a) Conduct a national debate to inform/clarify all the possible energy option scenarios available. b) Then to empower/push private enterprise into the consensual direction subsequent to the debate and chosen options. Why is the nation so blind to the principles of debate? When the country is faced with the double strategic constraint of imported oil and the redoubtable fall-out of the brake put on accelerating the nuclear option, subsequent to Fukushima's example.
HAL, please open the pod bay doors.
Your lust for proper Central Planning churns my bile... How about we just eliminated government involvement and let progress happen?
debate is not central planning...its democratic system function and transparent information development for all citizens...What's your problem with that? It is the MINIMAL role of good governance so lacking in USA today...Take off your green goggles like you were in OBL's house ...shooting imaginary flies!
Hey! right here...on this blog...that's ALL that TD and his friends do for us ! I'm not complaining...why can't the US govt; do the same without being tarred with the brush of CP!
Govt. empowerment, in the form of due process and debate, eventual subsequent legislation is ALSO good governance...so no central planning there..as the actors stay private sector, and can innovate and invest on a level playing field.
but when debate is limited to sanctioned topics,
with only filtered information available,
from the mouths of beholden politicos,
to discuss only preapproved choices,
for the benefit of the chosen few,
and implemented on the backs of the many,
the debate is just a front to give legitimacy to the matrix, and democracy dissolves into the farce we were warned against.
Govt. empowerment, in the form of due process and debate, eventual subsequent legislation is ALSO good governance...so no central planning there..as the actors stay private sector,...
Government actions are less the function of empowerment and are predominantly focused on limiting freedoms.
I apologize for the foray into the classic church vs government debate, but this is where in my mind it eventually leads.
Church/religion and government are and should remain separated in the sense that families tend to function best when both parents are present through the the cycle of birth to adulthood.
Though capable of "blessing", usually by bestowing physical benefits in an attempt to garner loyalty, governments tend to exercise discipline for inappropriate behavior while religions focus more on blessing good conduct.
Churches exercise discipline in the with holding of "blessing" which can for the most part be irrelevant to anyone but a religious individual. Except perhaps for the radical homosexual community that insists on a voluntary organization be forced to not exclude otherwise repugnant conduct from their "fellowship", this is a rather benign negative or physically painful/costly consequence.
Secular Governments, with their intrinsic physical "power of the sword" are best equipped to protect individuals from outward physical persecution while religions can, should and ought to have some sway over internal operation systems of individuals. Separate and distinct entities, but each necessary for the ultimate well being of society imo.
What has religion got to do with the debate on energy options facing the US nation? Are you OBL's ghost ?
why are we not using everyone else's (like Oil) first so that we will be the only major player left in the end?
Because everyone else knows we will play it that way?
The Japanese are also conducting major research on substitution programs for REs.
Afghanistan is supposedly loaded with rare earths. My guess is Russia is as well. China has just had a monopoly on cheap rare earths and rare earth refining.
DING DING DING DING DING!
Enough to make you want to go to war over it or something.
I mean, if the Russians were trying to spread Communism, they'd be smart enough to do it somewhere nice, where the weather's decent, and you have lush tropical jungles.... But this god forsaken plot of desert in the shadow of some mountains?
Dont forget the West Bank.