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The Real Crisis That Will Soon Hit the US
Forget stocks, the real crisis is coming… and it’s
coming fast.
Indeed, it first hit in 2008 though it
was almost entirely off the radar of the American public. While all eyes were
glued to the carnage in the stock market and brokerage account balances, a far
more serious crisis began to unfold rocking 30 countries around the globe.
I’m talking about food shortages.
Aside from a few rice shortages that were
induced by export restrictions in Asia, food received little or no coverage
from the financial media in 2008. Yet, food shortages started riots in over 30
countries worldwide. In Egypt people were actually stabbing each other while
standing in line for bread.
We’re now seeing the second round of this
disaster occurring in Egypt and other Arab countries today. Thanks to the Fed’s
funny money policies, food prices have hit records. And even the
Fed’s phony measures show that vegetable prices are up 13%!
The developed world, most notably the US,
has been relatively immune to these developments… so far. But for much of the
developing world, in which food and basic expenses consumer 50% of incomes, any
rise in food prices can have catastrophic consequences.
And that’s not to say that food shortages
can’t hit the developed world either.
According to Mark McLoran of Agro-Terra, the Earth’s population is
currently growing by 70-80 million people per year. Between 2000 and 2012, the
earth’s population will jump from six billion to seven billion. We’re expected
to add another billion people by 2024. So demanding for food is growing… and
it’s growing fast.
However, supply is falling. Up until the
1960s, mankind dealt with increased food demand by increasing farmland.
However, starting in the ‘60s we began trying to meet demand by increasing
yield via fertilizers, irrigation, and better seed. It worked for a while
(McLoran notes that between 1975 and 1986 yields for wheat and rice rose 32%
and 51% respectively).
However, in the last two decades, these
techniques have stopped producing increased yields due to their deleterious
effects: you can’t spray fertilizer and irrigate fields ad infinitum without
damaging the land, which reduces yields. McLoran points out that from 1970 to
1990, global average aggregate yield grew by 2.2% a year. It has since declined
to only 1.1% a year. And it’s expected to fall even further this decade.
Thus, since the ‘60s we’ve added roughly
three billion people to the planet. But we’ve actually seen a decrease in food
output. Indeed, worldwide arable land per person has essentially halved from
0.42 hectares per person in 1961 to 0.23 hectares per person in 2002.
It’s also worth noting that diets have
changed dramatically in the last 30 years.
For example, in 1985 the average Chinese
consumer ate 44 pounds of meat per year. Today, it’s more than doubled to 110
pounds. That in of itself is impressive, but when you consider that it takes 17
pounds of grain to generate one pound of beef, you begin to see how grain
demand can rise exponentially to population growth with even modest changes to
diet.
Make no mistake, agriculture is at the
beginning of a major multi-year bull market. We’ve got rapidly growing demand,
reduced production, and decade low inventories.
This is an absolute recipe for disaster.
Good Investing!
Graham Summers
PS. I’ve put together a FREE special
report detailing how to play the coming agriculture boom as well as other
inflation hedges that can protect your portfolio from the Fed’s money printing.
I call it The Inflationary Armageddon Report and its 14 pages
contain a literal treasure trove of information on how to take steps to prepare
AND profit from what’s to come. And it’s all 100% FREE.
To pick up
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He has obviously not dealt with the likes of a savvy coon.
Glad to have an opportunity to clear up some mis-understandings about available technologies to deal with this. I've posted this greenhouse fish video before: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qZPwBPAqks I thought more folks would get it. A closed system that could be started from captured rainwater, the yield is fast and incredibly high. The fish make the fertilizers for the soil and and the plants in turn feed the fish. This could be done in a greenhouse in the desert or on the roof of an apartment building. Not even cold climate has to be a barrier if done right: http://www.citrusinthesnow.com/ and or passive solar thermal (which is even easier and cheaper but only works during the day) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DusWlsJtVfE The University of Wisconsin likes it and according to the historical yield of the Growing Power greenhouse fish project it works.
If you have to use chemicals to do it you aren't doing it right. I thought a simple way for anyone with a greenhouse or appropriate climate to do this would be to grab a free hot tub from craigslist and just stock it with local vegetarian fish.
I heard another complaint that you can't grow food in a desert, not true, there is a proven technology that works for this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gPvsl9ni-4
That is a site specific example of the amazing power of permaculture, it MAKES soil and fertilizer not destroys it. Any food growing hurdle you face has probably already been solved in permaculture. Nitrogen fixation etc: http://www.permacultureusa.org/2008/09/29/nitrogen-fixing-trees-the-mult...
I can't say it enough, it is LOCATION/SITE SPECIFIC and if you use any chemicals you are doing something wrong. The food is better the yield is good and it's infinitely better for the soil than any haber bosch process available. If you've been waiting for SHTF it looks like shadow on the blades right now. Happy growing and please share your tips and info, there will be much less food theft if we spread this knowledge.
What should be stressed here is that closed-loop (or nearly closed-loop) systems differ in that you're NOT exporting nutrients. Any time that you remove something from a location you have to provide for some sort of replacement in order to continue the same operations.
Scale and time...
Regarding growing in airid deserts, it's a big battle with evaporation. And, since deserts (airid or otherwise) can't sustain that many people, any requirements to transport stuff to/from such centers can be very expensive.
It's all about utilizing intensive management practices centered on sustainability (symbiosis with the land).
Thanks for the nice links.
The freeze we had a few weeks ago that extended far south wiped out the Roma tomatoes and asparagus crops in northern mexico.
Tomatoes in the store are out of sight right now up here in the PNW.
I'm sure our Hothouse Tomato friends in B.C. will step in to take up the slack without hosing us on the price, eh?
I wonder what their electric bills would be if not for the availability of cheap hydro. Those hothouses are amazing! But... everything is pretty tasteless if you ask me (stuff from Mexico not much different, as it has to travel so far).
BC prices should be up given that the CAD is now above par with the USD.
Excellent points made:
More people
More Consumption per person
More animal grain consumution
Less farmable land due to land abuse
A good hedge is plant a large garden and to store more food.
You both forgot Monsanto and the x-genes and superweeds. If you think JPM is evil, Monsanto is the Fourth Reich.
Monsanto is the Fourth Seal (out of 7)...
spot on
we may already have the technology (and the resources, too) to feed even 8 billion people on the Earth - but this means worse quality food, and uncertain, unpredictable consequences on long-term health.
if we were _really_ hungry (majority of the people in the developed world has been lucky enough not to experience starvation in the last 70 years - it is a very impressive fact after hundreds of thousands of years when human race has been facing the risk of starvation on a daily basis), we wouldn't really care about the quality, and the health effects. we would eat what we could get, that's it. and if some evil corporations would say they can feed us, though their crops are modified a bit, then we'd let it be.
"we may already have the technology (and the resources, too) to feed even 8 billion people on the Earth"
This is (at least) a three dimensional world. Describing things in only two dimensions is problematic.
Yes, we could feed 8 billion people. I could feed 100 people tomorrow, but then the next day?
You're missing time in your equation. For HOW LONG could this happen? I'd argue not very. (refer to topsoil erosion/depletion and climate change)
Folks in Haiti were/are eating mud pies while their Dominican Republic neighbors, who had the good fortune of protecting their soils (via an indirect environmentalism), are able to produce REAL food.
one more thought to add: - firms like monsanto may be able to help to solve a food crisis, but their business model adds another kind of risk to the food situation: the uniformisation of crops (monoculture). they tend not to diversify their portfolio, as far as I know... we should remember the Irish Potato Famine in the 19th century..
Roger that, CI. Might I also add the depletion of minerals in the soils thru constant use and heavy reliance on fertilizers.
Just think 70 percent of the Earth's surface with water, and nobody allows for plans to build desalinization plants. There simply is no excuse for lack of water. No excuse for lack of this sort of planning which can then be used to farm.
...and here in the U.S. we also have the option for NAWAPA (a/k/a The Parsons Project).
So many defects in your claim, so little time... have you noticed that desalinization requires energy to construct, operate and maintain? Rather a large amount of energy with current systems?
But I will take the Alan Parsons Project for $100, Alex, Dr. Evil style...
Thorium reactors
and had the US not allowed itself to be distracted by the globalist backed envirotyrants for the last thirty years, there would be all the nuke plants needed to make it happen.
there are few crisis happening in the world today that were not intentionally made to serve someones interests.
It's always so easy to blame others for something that doesn't happen because it's NOT cost effective.
And when you put the blinders on and ignore the "waste" output then nothings really all that bad.
Ever think that oil companies might have the biggest hand in the anti-nuke game? Yes, I'm sure that they've used the planet-conscious folks to do it, but don't confuse the messenger from who constructed the message.
I'd challenge anyone who puts forth some "solution" to project out its growth and tell me how it ends up. I was once a big proponent of nuclear fusion until I figured out that it's ONLY ENERGY, which would mean that it would provide more energy to chew up our limited natural resources. Don't think that it's an issue? Think that desalinating water means we can magically create more arable land? Check out what intensive irrigation tends to do to soils and then get back to me... Meanwhile, keep your fucking nukes away from my farmland- OK? (and I'll keep my food away from your nukes)
Ever hear of pebble reactors?
There are plenty of solutions just no political will.
Hyperion Power Generation
Polywell Fusion
Adam Richman, you may want to start updating your resume. Just in case.
I am suffering from crises fatigue.
Anybody up for some brewskis?
The great breweski shortage is just around the corner. Stock up while you can...
How do you keep 'em from going bad? Sure, it lasts longer than bread, but not that much longer...
Northern Lights and Southern Comfort.
i am also suffering from crisis fatigue.......... i've been getting ready for this for 18 months now & my family keeps stealing my supplies cause they don't have any money ! ........ they go into my stockpile & now my supplies are low again !!!!! it's just too much for me to cope with anymore ......
so when the crisis finally arrives, I'm going to WING IT & HOPE FOR THE BEST !
[so when the crisis finally arrives, I'm going to WING IT & HOPE FOR THE BEST !]---lynnybee
Hi Lynnybee. Sorry to hear about the family "mice" making off with your supplies. You might try this: Store raw unprepared food such as wheat grains or dry beans. (Note, you will need to buy a flour mill to grind the wheat grain.) Not likely your family sneaks will go to the trouble of grinding wheat and baking bread. Just an idea.
Regarding winging it. We're all gonna wing it.
And the poor hardworking Amish will have a hard go of it fending off thieves.
Best wishes.
Yep. Put out the goods that actually require WORK and the "mice" won't steal it.
We used to hide the good stuff under sheetrock and 2X4s on the job site because the thieves won't take that. They just want to run off with the rolls of copper, light fixtures, and hardware. Ain't no real thief gonna steal a sheet of gypsum!
Without mapquest you would be really hard pressed to find anyone that owns a "map" nowadays.
Anyone under 35 own a map? Just curious...I've given directions to people with smart phones, with the map on the screen...in front of them...lost...and the cell phone blaring instructions.
Somehow I think anyone outside of a city is going to be fine.
31 and a proud owner of a map (and the know-how to read it)! And, I agree that the city folk will suffer most.
Check with your State tourism or promotion department and you can get some great topographical maps of each county. Also available are maps of hiking trails, streams, rivers, and historical sites (great for tramping around and finding roads not on the regular maps). It's all free and they'll mail them to you pronto!
Right here. GPS is great for knowing exactly where you are on the planet, but not so great for finding out how to get somewhere else.
The real question, though, is not who owns maps. It's "does anyone know how to make an accurate map?"
Cartography is a fine skill to learn. I was happy to see it included in our homeschool curriculum. If your child's school doesn't offer it, buy the books and teach them yourselves: http://www.amazon.com/National-Geographic-Map-Essentials/dp/0792290143/r...
I still have my Thomas Guides, just in case.
recalculating
Which is why Agenda 21s main purpose is to get as many sheep as possible into the cities. Keep your eyes on the Executive Orders.
Make mine a Beck's
Got the fridge full...here...let me pop one open for ya..
Time for a nice cold glass of homebrewed hard cider...... not too sweet so it's got some kick to her
this oughta do the trick:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXbpZnYmo38
Vodka keeps longer than beer and can be used to power batteries.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn3539-biobattery-runs-on-shots-of-v...
Skoal!
Cider is setting a bit longer, it may need a more kick.
people are going to die soon.......lots of them :(
Starveflation anyone?
peak food+
peak soil
equals die back
the green revolution and oil inputs to food chain have caused massive population over shoot, and ma nature is fixin to alleviate the problem
long 'soylent green'
What gets me is people ignore the fact that a 1 tonne cow eats ALOT so does a half tonne sow.
As far as people are concerned, the explainations have been given for decades on over population and thousands of studies have been done on the outcome of people throwing themselves in a bunker mentality. Neither situations give a decent outcome, unless you are the last man standing. Think Liberia in both cases.
Now put Liberia in the back yard of NYC, LA, Seattle, Taipei, Tokyo, London, Paris, etc. First world shit holes. That's the outcome. Crowded rats stuck with no resources. Cairo is an interesting experiment, while "democracy" has "won", all that's in place right now is the dictators cousin that runs the army, now in control of the place, still no food is coming in.
Here's the kicker, no food is coming because their isn't any. 8 of 10 major breadbaskets in the world have failed miserably, Mexico and the South Western US being the most current one. Give this another three months and we'll see the failure again because all bets are off right now on food production. Energy production is in the crapper, we've discovered GMO seeds are just as shitty at production with zero water or too much water as regular seeds.
Peak humanity in a day and age people are as rare as broken glass in a walmart parking lot. The situation stinks, but people are going to have to make some hard choices this year because it's either all starve by half or some survive strong.
That is the decision probably being made right now by empty political suits. Funny think is when they head for the bunkers, I doubt that the order and discipline they enjoyed outside of the bunker will be given the same level of interest once the door closes.
Again, last man standing. Who would be fool enough to get locked in with strong guys with guns, in a hole in a ground, with women. I would bet against anyone over 40 in that situation, go short as it were and anything with tits becomes breeding stock. There is a reason Lord of the Flies is a book taught to kids in private schools along with The Prince. Those two books illustrate the need for people to dominate in whatever shitty situation they are in and cut the fat regardless of prior political strength because it comes down to the primeval concept of bicep size.
USA is one of the very view nation, that is able to feed all its people!
Can you tell me of an economical way to turn grass into bio-available protein that is cheaper than a cow?
Grasslands are made productive by cattle.
Not really, it might freak you out a little, but when you see "pastures" in the country side, that's actually planted as part of the crop rotation cycle.
Bzzt! Broad brush!
No, not ALL pastures are crop rotations!
Grass farmers may or may not seed. I know that Joel Salatin has NEVER seeded his pastures; and, they're ALL grass (mixed naturally). Zero cost. And he's got a $1 million business going... (yeah, some is from publications, but his farm productivity isn't anything to sneeze at) http://www.polyfacefarms.com/products.aspx