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The Real Crisis That Will Soon Hit the US
Forget stocks, the real crisis is coming… and it’s
coming fast.
Indeed, it first hit in 2008 though it
was almost entirely off the radar of the American public. While all eyes were
glued to the carnage in the stock market and brokerage account balances, a far
more serious crisis began to unfold rocking 30 countries around the globe.
I’m talking about food shortages.
Aside from a few rice shortages that were
induced by export restrictions in Asia, food received little or no coverage
from the financial media in 2008. Yet, food shortages started riots in over 30
countries worldwide. In Egypt people were actually stabbing each other while
standing in line for bread.
We’re now seeing the second round of this
disaster occurring in Egypt and other Arab countries today. Thanks to the Fed’s
funny money policies, food prices have hit records. And even the
Fed’s phony measures show that vegetable prices are up 13%!
The developed world, most notably the US,
has been relatively immune to these developments… so far. But for much of the
developing world, in which food and basic expenses consumer 50% of incomes, any
rise in food prices can have catastrophic consequences.
And that’s not to say that food shortages
can’t hit the developed world either.
According to Mark McLoran of Agro-Terra, the Earth’s population is
currently growing by 70-80 million people per year. Between 2000 and 2012, the
earth’s population will jump from six billion to seven billion. We’re expected
to add another billion people by 2024. So demanding for food is growing… and
it’s growing fast.
However, supply is falling. Up until the
1960s, mankind dealt with increased food demand by increasing farmland.
However, starting in the ‘60s we began trying to meet demand by increasing
yield via fertilizers, irrigation, and better seed. It worked for a while
(McLoran notes that between 1975 and 1986 yields for wheat and rice rose 32%
and 51% respectively).
However, in the last two decades, these
techniques have stopped producing increased yields due to their deleterious
effects: you can’t spray fertilizer and irrigate fields ad infinitum without
damaging the land, which reduces yields. McLoran points out that from 1970 to
1990, global average aggregate yield grew by 2.2% a year. It has since declined
to only 1.1% a year. And it’s expected to fall even further this decade.
Thus, since the ‘60s we’ve added roughly
three billion people to the planet. But we’ve actually seen a decrease in food
output. Indeed, worldwide arable land per person has essentially halved from
0.42 hectares per person in 1961 to 0.23 hectares per person in 2002.
It’s also worth noting that diets have
changed dramatically in the last 30 years.
For example, in 1985 the average Chinese
consumer ate 44 pounds of meat per year. Today, it’s more than doubled to 110
pounds. That in of itself is impressive, but when you consider that it takes 17
pounds of grain to generate one pound of beef, you begin to see how grain
demand can rise exponentially to population growth with even modest changes to
diet.
Make no mistake, agriculture is at the
beginning of a major multi-year bull market. We’ve got rapidly growing demand,
reduced production, and decade low inventories.
This is an absolute recipe for disaster.
Good Investing!
Graham Summers
PS. I’ve put together a FREE special
report detailing how to play the coming agriculture boom as well as other
inflation hedges that can protect your portfolio from the Fed’s money printing.
I call it The Inflationary Armageddon Report and its 14 pages
contain a literal treasure trove of information on how to take steps to prepare
AND profit from what’s to come. And it’s all 100% FREE.
To pick up
your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com
and click on FREE REPORTS.
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rodent, get informed
Rodent, get informed! Green leafed vegetables like spinach are over 20% protein.
DAAAAAYMMM!!!
That friends, is what is called a "smack-down". (to use the parlance of our times)
You alright over there Eddie? You need a fire extinguisher, or an adrenaline syringe or something?
100g of raw spinach contains 2.2g of protein. 100g of steak contains anywhere from 24 to 32g of protein, depending on the cut.
The RDA for protein for an adult male is 56g/day (http://www.dietaryfiberfood.com/protein-requirement.php). That's either 2.54 kg of spinach (5.6 lbs) or 0.2 kg of steak (0.44 lbs).
1 acre of land, cultivated organically, will produce about 11,000 pounds of spinach. That sounds great, but spinach is a seasonal crop and loses much of it's nutritional value shortly after harvest. It does not preserve well.
That same 1 acre can handle 1 or 2 cows, depending on forage and climate. You'll get about 450 lbs of meat per cow. The meat can be preserved fairly easily and without refrigeration. You also get a nice hide and, depending on whether you've got a breeding female, milk and cheese and butter.
There's a reason why a pioneer family considered themselves established when they were able to get a cow. They're powerhouses and large amounts of stored energy.
Thank you, Michelle, for bringing in a realistic view.
I'd also like to add that LOTS of land that can't support crops CAN support animals.
There's been such broad brushing going on that it makes it hard to achieve any real solution/balance. I've got many vegetarian and vegan friends. I tell them that I'll subscribe as soon as they can convince the Inuit to be vegan. There's a reason why we're omnivores.
What works one place doesn't necessarily work elsewhere. The centralized food system that permiates the globe is destined for failure because it achieves its "efficiency" via reduced diversity. And when climate change comes to a particular food region, well, all eggs in one basket is asking for, and will find, trouble.
It's hard to beat the SUSTAINABLE energy efficiency of animals on grass.
Swine have their place too. I'll be using them to help clear and set pasture land. But... they're only a step; everything's temporary, and should see progressions and change to help strengthen our the resiliency of our lands.
A good read: Collapse by Jared Diamond
And yes, I often wonder what was going thru the man's mind as he cut down the last tree on Easter Island.
JD blew it (or just blew) in "Collapse" - his analysis totally ignored minor things like changes in technology etc. While the thesis that environmental collapse is the destroyer of civilizations may have some validity, his presentation with such critical flaws is not very convincing as stated.
Well we certainly can agree that the civilizations in question did collapse. Please elucidate your thesis on critical flaws.
Didn't you get the memo about technology saving us? (only the "us" wasn't given; I suspect it was like "we the people," the special ruling elite) But never mind, it's a fun thing to be distracted by while everything collapses!
Tragedy of the Commons?
A common tragedy.
Like the Roman Empire. You overrun your resource base, go on a pillaging binge in the hinterlands and before you realize it, you're in catabolic collapse.
He was probably thinking that he will get a shit-load of money for it based on supply and demand.
If he cared about ecology he wouldn't have cut it down.
Uhp, the trolls don't get what that really means, it's easy to talk the talk but a shit load harder to walk the walk...... it might start getting ugly tomorrow with the protest in Wisconsin.
people in Wisconsin are protesting having to pay into their retirement plans and having some other small changes. The people around the world are protesting starvation.
Think we are still far removed from the problems at hand.
talk about ugly. I went to my nearst Taco Bell for lunch yesterday. The "value menu" has changed, with only the "bean burrito" (5 cents worth of beans on a 10-cent tortilla) less than a dollar. The cheapest thing with any meat in it (not the "beefy" concoction) is a $1.39. The "volcano taco", which I remember buying for 79 cents a year ago is now $1.19.
Whan two bucks can't get you a bloat at McD's or the Bell, revolution is coming.
Will that be "GENOCIDE" for $100 Alex?
Pity the deer.
Deer???? Get your out of your ass.... there are few people in our society who have the were with all to take care of themselves... the Amish come to mind. '
It is not going to be some macho wanna be hunting that is going to survive this, but the people who have the work ethic and the fortitude to live like the Amish...... and that is going to be a very rude awakening.
the amish shall inherit the earth?
Lol the Amish will rule the world after the rest of Humanity exhausts it self :)
Impossible! The Amish don't have iPads or Facebook.
My head has been posterior-free for many years. I don't hunt because I don't have to and I intend to only hunt two-legged game. I fear there will be very few deer that survive what's coming, for deer it may even be a extinction level event. May be for "we the people" also. Mostly thanks to goobermints and people who support them. The Amish will be slaughtered for what they have and what they believe. Welcome to dark-ages II.
+1000 on hunting the two-legged animal! And yeah, thank you government! You gave welfare moms a reason to reproduce and bankers a means to keep raping the middle-class. If the real SHTF......both of these groups will be so disadvantage it will make for good popcorn nights! I can't wait any longer!
Going Long Pork, eh? Not a bad plan; avoid the diseased, however...
People have been known to go to war to protect hunting grounds.