The Real Inflationary Threat - Decreasing Foreign Reserves: Why the US Should Expect 8% Inflation For The Next Three Years

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Taylor Cottam of EconomyPolitics

The real threat of inflation, decreasing foreign reserves: Why the US should expect 8% inflation for the next three years

Weekly we put out information on the US Dollar Money supply.  Current M2 money supply is over 9 Trillion dollars. 
Source: Federal Reserve
This is a good proxy for money growth and good predictor of inflation except for one crucial flaw. 
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There is some money which is
printed, but does not make it into the money supply.  Consider the
scenario that the Fed prints a dollar that is then either lost or
destroyed.  It then cannot be used to buy goods, or be lent out and thus
does not create inflation. 
There is something else which
can happen to our money which has the same net effect.  Foreign central
banks can take cash printed from the Fed and place it on their balance
sheet.  US dollars on foreign banks balance sheets gives investors
confidence that their own currency will not be debased. 
In our current (weakening)
dollar regime, the US dollar is the main foreign reserve currency.  When
foreign central banks put US dollars onto their balance sheet, they
take them out of circulation.  They are not being used to buy goods. 
These dollars are not lent out.  As such, they do not create
inflation.  

10 year USD/EUR

?Americans have benefitted greatly from having central
banks prefer our cash to even their own.  It has allowed the Fed to
print money like mad without the fear of inflation.  ??

In other words, the real threat
of inflation is not the current printing of money which Bernanke et al
have been doing.  It is the previous printing of money which has been
taken out of circulation.  The threat is as great as its ever been.  The
amount of money in foreign reserves is about one third or more of M2,
or every dollar which is held by US bank account (business or retail),
and all currency combined.
There
are signs that this dollar regime will be ending.  The cracks have been
apparent for some time, but we just blew a big hole in the US Dollar
dam.  This week, China has announced that they will reduce their US
dollar holdings by more than 1.7 Trillion Dollars. Via Xinhuanet:
The amount of
foreign exchange reserves should be restricted to between 800 billion to
1.3 trillion U.S. dollars, Tang told a forum in Beijing, saying that
the current reserve amount is too high.
China's foreign exchange
reserves increased by 197.4 billion U.S. dollars in the first three
months of this year to 3.04 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of March.

??1.7
Trillion dollars  is the amount that we have added to our money supply
since August 2007.  If all that money were to come into the current US
money supply all at once it would increase money supply by 19%.  That
would make US inflation among the highest in the world. 

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Source:  SIFMA

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If this action were to be followed by
other central banks in Japan or Europe, there would be a real danger of
hyperinflation to the tune of 50%. 
Now, odds are they won't do this
all at once.  That is why we have said that at least the amount of
inflation, should it be spread out over 3 years should be 8% or more.
See the total allocated and
unallocated foreign reserves above.  You can see that the US Dollar, is
the king right now, but the Euro is gaining.  What is gaining even
faster is the Unallocated foreign reserves, which means it is either in
something else (gold, or IMF certificates), or they don't want to
disclose. 

??????

Either way, it should be concerning to anyone who has money in dollars... very concerning.