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"Real" S&P Back To April Levels
All those charts of one thing in terms of another...all of them so, so stupid...unless of course you happen to live in North Korea today and just found yourself 100x poorer and scrambling to exchange whatever is in your wallet for dollars, ovens, bananas, penguins, horses, toothpicks, hookers, Kindles (never mind if you can't read: that will just make you a targeted Amazon customer), matches, or... gold. And as Bernanke will soon be converting Benjamins into brand spanking new Obama-portraited dollar denominations, the S&P, in "real" terms (represented in ounces of gold) is now back to April levels, and receding fast.
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This is huge and should be the subject of a post by itself from Bob Chapman:
"The following information may be the most important we have ever published. One of our Intel sources, highly placed in banking circles, tells us that on 1/1/10 all banks that have received TARP funds have been informed by the Federal Reserve that they must further restrict any commercial lending. Loans have to be 75% collateralized, 50% of which has to be in cash, which is a compensating balance...
Now get this, the FDIC is going to be collapsed before the end of 2010, which means no more deposit insurance. This follows the 9/18/09 end of government guarantees on money market funds. Both will force deposits into US government bonds and agency bonds in an attempt to save the system.
This will strip small and medium-sized banks and force them into shutting down or being absorbed. This means you have to get your money out of banks, especially CDs. We repeat get your cash values out of life insurance policies and annuities. They are invested 80% in stocks and 20% in bonds. Keep only enough money in banks for three months of operating expenses, six months for businesses.
Major and semi-major banks are being told to obtain secure storage for new currency-dollars. They expect official devaluation by the end of the year.
We do not know what the exchange rate will be, but as we have stated previously we expect three old dollars to be traded for one new dollar. The alternative is gold and silver coins and shares. For those with substantial sums that do not want to be in gold and silver related assets completely you can use Canadian and Swiss Treasuries. If you need brokers for these investments we can supply them."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15412.html
OK, let's please discuss this - I know rumors are difficult to address, but this is the kind of thing that won't be broadcast before the event. If it's real this should be the first place to break the news.
I doubt it will happen, the govt is much more subtle, they will just let the Fed accomplish the same thing, but in slow motion, like what is happening now.
Yeh Yeh... I love idea about "obtain secure storage for new currency"... its like banks have any currency to start with... but i like to change 3 Benjammins for 1 Miki.. i think Miki is sexy... On side note, why gold always attract paranoid? is it color? or weight? or conductivity? i want VOTE on subject... please ZH?
Yes, let us deflate everything else by 66.6% or by the devils tail....
Interesting observation, I had not thought of that.
Anybody know who Bob Chapman is? Is it a pseudonym? Background?
I've read market oracle before, but their stuff hasn't been as bombshell as this (mostly good analysis). Now I'm looking for some validation and a trackrecord, if it's available.
http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/Bob_Chapman
Bob Chapman:
http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/
He publishes on Wedndesdays and Saturdays.
1-YEAR subscription = US$159.95
I've been reading him for the best part of this decade - he's been spot on. Had a huge recommendation on silver around $4/oz a couple of years ago. It's approaching $20/oz now.
Mr. Chapman is 72 years old. He was born in Boston, MA and attended Northeastern University majoring in business management. He spent three years in the U. S. Army Counterintelligence, mostly in Europe. He speaks German and French and is conversant in Spanish. He lived in Europe for six years, off and on, three years in Africa, a year in Canada and a year in the Bahamas.
Mr. Chapman became a stockbroker in 1960 and retired in 1988. For 18 of those years he owned his own brokerage firm. He was probably the largest gold and silver stockbroker in the world during that period. When he retired he had over 6,000 clients.
From 1962 through 1976 he specialized in South African gold shares. He and his family lived in Salisbury, Rhodesia (now Harare, Zimbabwe) and Johannesburg, South Africa from 1970 to 1973. During that time he did a great deal of further study into the South African mining industry.
Mr. Chapman belonged to The Traders Association for 25 years. He did all his own trading. During his South African years some was done directly through Johannesburg, but 95% was done through London brokerage firms. Hence, he has extensive contacts, both in London and on the Continent.
Starting in 1967 Mr. Chapman began writing articles on business, finance, economics and politics having been printed and reprinted over the years in over 200 publications. He owned and wrote the Gary Allen Report, which had 30,000 subscribers. He currently is owner and editor of The International Forecaster, a compendium of information on business, finance, economics and social and political issues worldwide, which reaches 10,000 investors and brokers monthly directly, and parts of his publication are picked up by 60 different websites weekly exposing his ideas to over 10 million investors a week.
In 1976, after the Soweto riots, Mr. Chapman began buying North American shares exclusively for his clients. Up to that point only a handful of American and Canadian issues interested him, due to the high dividends the South African shares had paid out over the years. Between 1976 and 1988 his business surged from 1,000 to 6,000 clients, so the bulk of his business ended up being Vancouver Stock Exchange issues. For this reason he is very conversant with the quality of management, geologists, properties and traders on today’s North American scene. He is well known.
From 1976 to present he has spoke and given workshops at over 200 business conferences worldwide, and has been on radio and TV hundreds of times. Until his retirement he was always judged by the attendees to be one of the top three speakers and never once was lower than first in workshops due to his vast knowledge of the mining business and his grasp of worldwide financial markets and political scenes.
In June of 1991, at the request of business associates, and due to retirement boredom, he began writing the International Forecaster.
Thanks a lot Sydneysider, well done!
His name is Robert Paulson.
Ok... first of all, I'm a conspiracy theorist in any dimension of Euclidean N space, but even I find it to be completely unlikely that the US would be so dumb as to re-issue our Currency in Ameros. Honestly, it ranks right up there with the V parking right over NYC. We would have all out civil war erupt and riots would pop up all over like zits on a Burger King employee.... yeah, that nasty.
However, the restriction of lending? That would be ideal to have a massive dollar pop with the reduction in exogenous credit.... but it's highly unlikely.
I'd like to point out also one quote in this article:
"Economics is not complex; it is very simple. Professors and economists would like to have you believe it is complicated when in fact they make it opaque, so you cannot understand it. The same is true with banking. In normal times through the century’s bankers using the fractional banking system usually lent 8 times their assets, or deposits. It was only until recently that the privately owned Federal Reserve told banks within the system to lend 40 times assets or more in order to accommodate the system."
The reason they would like you to believe it's complicated isn't because it's simple... It's because they have no fucking clue how it works themselves.
(if it is, please calculate the present value of a 5% coupon bond with 3.22 years left till maturity with a YTM of 3.2% along with a 7.5% bond with 7.86 years till maturity yielding 4.2% and please make sure to write down the premium and yeah, do that several million times and then sum everything up to determine our banking reserves.... oh, don't know the math? Then I guess economics isn't that fucking simple is it, because that's how bank reserves are calculated and thats what they use to lend... i.e. exogenous credit),
So really, it's mainly because economists have no clue what the variables they are using represent at the micro-level... (i.e. your neighborhood bank) that they make it sound complicated. That's the big joke... THEY HAVE NO CLUE.... well at least a vast majority of business trained parrot economists screaming demand and supply and puff their chest about the cash on the sidelines. The problem isn't theirs though, it's the teachers of their teachers who were bought out by the banks a long time ago. For any actuaries out there, they'll remember Steven Kellison's "Theory of Interest" for the FM exam... funny thing is the only book ever named "The Theory of Interest" before was Irving Fisher, who only had a bi-line despite being the man who demonstrated how to use the tools instric to asset valuation. There's a reason why his works were suppressed, figure it out.
Banking valuation is fantastically complex, what's amazingly so simple is how quickly everyone will believe they understand economics when they read a few Austrian books who explain the logic so perfectly and convincingly (there's a reason why they are usually Lawyers folks), but neglect the value of application. That's like me showing up to a math class and say the answer is "42". The teacher says show your work and I tell him that I can't quantify how I figured it out.... Well guess what use that is? Fucking none.
Learn all the background before you call the most important and most misunderstood and manipulated topic "simple". The science of exchange between parties is the most vital, because simple miscommunications can often lead to blood. Sometimes deliberately.
And once again, if you haven't taken the damn time to read Krugman's Hicksian IS-LM patch in response to Japan in 98, then your understanding of economics is even more pitiful... because it's what is currently going on. He might be an inflationist and wrong about how to fix the problem, but the man isn't a simpleton... read his blog a bit, there is wisdom, even if it might be distasteful.
Phaesed--
And once again, if you haven't taken the damn time to read Krugman's Hicksian IS-LM patch in response to Japan in 98, then your understanding of economics is even more pitiful...
Economics is simple--very simple--
Todays--economics are not simple-
They are impossible--
They are filled with assumptions and other Keynisian wizardry -
Nothing but voodoo
Here's some examples--
dY/dD = (1-m)/[1 - (1-t)(1-m)c - t(1-m)]
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SZzYPiH691I/AAAAAAAAFpc/5B_Od1tGKS...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SZzZtStc2EI/AAAAAAAAFpk/gzygqs0mKR...
These multipliers and formulas stopped working--why?
Simple--you cannot borrow and spend your way to prosperity--
Don't get much simpilar then that--
So wait, economics isn't simple because it doesn't get much simpler?
I have merely one question about your simple conjecture.
A business takes out a $50,000 to invest in anyway they see fit. They decide to get a shop, build some widgets and after interest rate expense, in two years they've yielded a 20% return, but only paid 3% in interest expense... rather than paying this off, they do it again next year... etc, etc... you get the point.
Did they borrow and spend correctly? Yep.
So I guess it's not that simple man and yes, todays economics aren't simple... so why does everyone want to assume that they understand how to "fix" the solution?
For all curious about the first equation (and that's the one I'll deal with) here's a link (I love it when variables aren't declared... Krugman did the same thing in his blog... it's so "inside"!)
http://www.acting-man.com/labels/capital%20theory.html
First of all, ceteris paribus is another way of saying "well, I'll ignore that", just like the capital switching and reswitching debate, and this phrase runs rampant throughout all the base theory of economics taught... it works, but it limits understanding. But in the recent years our financial system has matured immensely and is now capable of servicing a better theory... but you can't tell the auto mechanic that you want to put a jet engine into your vw bug... Not because he can't... but because he doesn't know how (unless he's that damn good), but he's got an ego as big as his lack of foresight and ends up ruining things even worse.... so he covers it up, gets it running and hands it over.... but when it breaks down, you go right back to him/her again! Well if he knew last time, surely it'll work this time... and we get a cycle, etc...
Why people are saying economics failed them when people were shouting for two years that assets were overvalued is a silly argument to make, it's quite clear that the people placed in charge (hey, let's face it, there are some talented economists) of the Fed are trained to ignore this and exist in a bubble... or perhaps they ignore this because they have a different mission... that's not relevant. Even worse are the money managers who made no attempt to do their homework and take their signals only from the Fed... but that wouldn't be part of the problem would it?
Look, I don't agree with Krugman's policies and attempt to magnify himself, but I detest everyone saying they have the solution and that it's simple.
Believe me, if the majority of small/large business owners understood that the Austrian way would be another 2 years of pain but followed by a greater than imagined boom, they'd still get upset with the idea that prices would fall.... why do business if prices are falling? Doesn't matter if the purchasing power has increased... the common folk are spiritually trained to believe that "Viaticus Est Sterilis" and one will always equal one.
Phaesed your example doesn't work because it assumes infinite demand. I wish I had guaranteed work. Or maybe that was your point... I don't know I am getting tired.
Burned brights got it--
Exactly what our problem is today--
Simple shit--
We ran out of a pool of greater fools-
Expansion shit the bed-
Okay, how I have gotten into the role of defending modern economics when I blast it daily is ridiculous....
No - infinite growth is stupid, industries must fail to make way for new technologies.
Every model breaks down, that's why it's a model and a human has to designate the inputs... I'm saying don't fault the ship, fault the captain. Honestly, if more investment advisors and economists were traders it would make for a better market because people would look out for errors rather than buy/hold and pray for inflation.
But my point was that you cannot assume the answer is simple and you keep coming back to that point. You say the idiots believing in unlimited growth are wrong... you're right, they are. But then you say "it's so simple! can't they see" and the truth is it's not so simple, so stop saying it is. The simple part is that ANYONE CAN SEE THE FAULT.
The complex part is how to fix it. One line sentences do jack.
That's the problem with trying to fix a 'free' market. It crashes because it's 'fixed' - and the squidz keep all da mon$y!
Any well-respected, brilliant economist these days didn't see **** coming down ramp for some reason. Why, because they are squidie apologists. They're bought and paid for. Here's a coupla one liners:
The fountain of all evil and moral filth on this planet is the Federal Reserve, which is as federal as FedEx and has no reserves. Ding!
Here is my interpretation of the GS - FedRes lovesoup: http://cupiespew.blogspot.com/Satan&Saddam.jpg
What part of 'free' market do we not comprehend? It's a lack of restriction. You can learn in kindergarten that round and square do not fit in the same place. Forcing the puzzle pieces doesn't make it better.
What is capitalism with regulation? Corruption. Not capitalism anymore.
phaesed keeps saying--
But my point was that you cannot assume the answer is simple and you keep coming back to that point. You say the idiots believing in unlimited growth are wrong... you're right, they are. But then you say "it's so simple! can't they see" and the truth is it's not so simple, so stop saying it is. The simple part is that ANYONE CAN SEE THE FAULT.
And your point is what exactly?
How to fix it?
That's also simple--why do you keep trying to "hint" that it is above the rest of us?
Economics--is simple--the only problem,is people like you,who "think" that it is,complicated--
Here's how to "fix" it--
Get rid of--
The Fed--and their ability to create "money" out of thin air--
Stop---Fractional reserve banking--
Implement a "sound money system" ie.Gold--
There now--that wasn't so complicated--was it?
A business takes out a $50,000 to invest in anyway they see fit. They decide to get a shop, build some widgets and after interest rate expense, in two years they've yielded a 20% return, but only paid 3% in interest expense... rather than paying this off, they do it again next year... etc, etc... you get the point.
Did they borrow and spend correctly? Yep.
So I guess it's not that simple man and yes, todays economics aren't simple... so why does everyone want to assume that they understand how to "fix" the solution?
Ummm--what if the widgets were replaced by someone with a better wigit and there was suddenly no sale and their value dropped to zero,while they had that loan outstanding--
Did they borrow and spend correctly?
Nope
I won't comment on simple or complex other than some of the mathematical equations that modern macroeconomics uses certainly appear to be a bit more than simple, basic math. Doesn't necessarily mean that the discipline of macroecon is complex (or if I can describe something with a 5th grade math formula, it doesn't make it simple).
My only comment regarding modern macroecon/models/equations is that, from what I can see, they are predicated on growth continuing forever in a closed system. Since it is a fact that the earth is a closed system and, therefore, growth cannot continue forever, one of the preconditions for modern macroecon cannot be met. (To paraphrase another member of this site (from Monday, I believe), ask the bacteria in a petri dish how long they can continue to grow exponentially.) Therefore, to me, much of modern macroecon is, in fact, false but described in unnecessarily complex fashion in order to deceive, obfuscate, steal.
no, you're right... I can tell you that I won't want to use gasoline for the rest of my life, I want more efficient cars (read: hydrogen). Demand goes away, yes, that's why everyone thinks it's a simple solution, but it's just the simple honest description.
Ignoring Malthus is the norm, since doing otherwise brings in very complex factors such as engineering and ecology. The infinitely large system is much easier to "theorize".
Phaesed -
You give a good example of business investment that is expansionary in the economy, ie, it increases GDP. Some economists refer to this type of borrowing as "self-liquidating credit" (it sterilizes itself by giving the borrower some type of return on investment). Overall, SLC produces income, increased employment, etc - good stuff.
From history, we know that banking crises almost ALWAYS occur when the majority of lending tips from SLC to "Non-self Liquidating Credit", ie, most credit goes to borrowers who borrow to buy SUV's and lease 24" spinners to go with, Mini-Mansions in Las Vegas, etc. One always sees this imbalance near the end of credit cycles.
So...SLC is good when it is the majority of borrowing, when Non-SLC is the lion's share of credit...the end is neigh.
hope this helps.
"The Fed are trained to ignore this and exist in a bubble... or perhaps they ignore this because they have a different mission... that's not relevant."
Maybe it is not irrelevant. Maybe economics is now so complex and opaque because they are trying to make it that way. Maybe their mission is to pull the wool over our eyes one more time.
Maybe it is all lies. Lies can be as complex and opaque as the liar wants them to be. Just because one doesn't understand the lie doesn't make it true.
We didn't do IS-LM in undergrad, let alone grad. Business Cycle Theory, my friend.
total nonsense..its crap like this that puts fear into entry level investors hence, losing gains
Bullshit, this will not happen
This seems EXTREMELY unlikely and something you would expect to see in the midst of a crack-up boom. Yes it strikes me a convenient way to deleverage the country's debt, but it is an emergency measure at best.
He means devaluation by the end of 2010, not 2009, if that isn't clear. He's said this in radio interviews in the past few days (e.g. http://bit.ly/8BUXiH ).
and here is a little confirmation:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/12/fha-to-ask-congress-for-change...
"the Federal Housing Administration is proposing new rules to crack down on lenders and asking Congress for the authority to raise certain borrower requirements ... Those steps will include raising minimum borrower FICO scores, requiring larger down payments, and reducing the maximum permissible seller concession from six percent currently to three percent.
It could also include raising up-front and/or annual insurance premiums, which would require Congressional authority. This is according to the testimony HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan is scheduled to present to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday afternoon, obtained by CNBC."
Funny Bunnys...
Cool.
Bring on the GOLD-$2000 people below me!
They will soon be lopping off at least one zero from the USD. And the US will finally get a $2 bill.
Are you serious? The $2 bill has existed for decades. I have three of them in my wallet as I write this. Nearly all banks have them (a couple of them) available if you want. The back side has a beautiful illustration of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
Heh, are you kidding?
There won't be a devaluation of that type until our backs are against the wall, paying 12%+ on Treasuries.
Right now, we can continue floating billions in new debt at 1%, 2%, 3% with ease.
100% agree.. rates on front end of UST are negative... Devalue what? and why?
Anyone care to dispute,that gold shines in deflation?
LOL ... yeah, how about the only guy to ever actually study the damn thing and publish extensive if not voluminous materials of both quantified research as well as actual interpretation. Robert Prechter!
Oh boy, can't wait to see how many gold bugs try to attack both me (who, um, actually trades, by the way) and RrP himself (which would simply be beyond preposterous within the context of this sad question/ mock answer).
In light of the abnormally noteworthy Full Moon at 02:28 this morning, both gold bugs and those especially in tune with the waves of collective social mood (akin to social tuning forks) ought to remain extra cranky/ irritable over the next few days.
02:28:xx will mark a Full Moon (always EST, which is market time, since everything else is just noise, though apparently there is something between NYC, Chicago and LA). And while we jingoistic Anglo-Saxons know this current iteration as the "Oak Moon", Native Americans (thx for the land n turkey dinner, by the way) know it as the "Cold Moon" or the "Frost Moon", which is just a lovely segue into market related action ... where the spot PoG has nudged above $1215 and GCG10 sees very heavy volume (when segmented by either daily or rolling 4/13 hour interval periods of natural time across the continuous contract) that is still pathetic in terms of its aggregate notional dollar value, while the DX/ $USD sits just above its daily S2, yet to plot either a fresh swing low or a FNL (failed new low).
I started out as a gold bug who thought gold was an inflation hedge. Now I realize it's a hedge against wholesale delusion and goatfuckery. Of which we appear to have a greater supply now than in 2006.
Dude...that was fucking Funny....Bravo!
Oh boy, can't wait to see how many gold bugs try to attack both me (who, um, actually trades, by the way) and RrP himself (which would simply be beyond preposterous within the context of this sad question/ mock answer).
Prechtor is right--his problem is--
He uses the wrong kind of money to measure with--
He needs to use--guess what?
Elite trader
I'm suddenly reminded of Live Free or Die Hard... can't explain why...
Perhaps its all the Wood....;-)
The dollar is often ridiculed, but it's still the denomination of choice. If it were on the verge of not becoming the denomination of choice, well, I don't think a lot of these prop desks and parasitic momo's want to see that coiled snake strike.
Note sure if "choice" is the word I would use.
Reserve currency, sure, but "choice"?
Use dollars or the marines shoot you is a choice isn't it?
But what if the US$ is so low that the USGov can't even pay the Marines or finance their war machines?
After all: "Money is the lifeblood of war", according to Napoleon Bonaparte. No blood = no war. Most empires crumbled because the could not afford the cost of constant war anymore.
Well if our central bank overlords had it their way we'd war all the time. They had England waring or preparing for war for 56 straight years. After WWII they knew US was SICK of war and wouldn't have any of it. So they just did what they always do. Maintain religions that talk about how we are all coming together as one all the while hiding that the people who have come together had rogue CIA psycho's running around stirring up any competing groups breaking them up, messing up thier organization and ability to band together into sympathetic union.
Which all nicely explains this guys head scratching on US contrarianism concerning splitting up.
http://www.poptech.org/popcasts/juan_enriquez__poptech_2006
Which is same behavior you see in domain specific industry. Microsoft has thier own CIA operation which is nothing more than how can we fuckover and make trouble for our competition.
So does intel. etc etc etc.
Hsbc cancels individual storage accounts for gold.
Now we have a possible European call on credit default swaps they wrote
to cover their Basel capital ratio in the event of a credit collapse.
If we cnacel in the first quarter then their ratios go to shit and the European banking system collapses. If we don't, then th US gov't is on
the hook for all those losses through the AIG CDS conduit. What are
the chances of no credit event. Holy crap I just shit my pants thinking about it.
LOL. I think a lot of us will be needing this in the next 3-6 months (I already got mine):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blwBvrFQy-Y
+1209.70
Wonder if there is any truth to the rumor I heard that Goldman underwrote the IPO for Oops, ICMP.
I love the manufacturer, Proctor and G A M B L E
That's why they call it Craps. Never Procto-Gamble more than you can lose...
and to think I used to believe that 2012 wasn't going to be the end of the world.
I can see every on of those things happening but in a decade not a month.
First, we do need to re-issue $500 and $1000 US Dollar notes. Bullion dealers are generally cash only, and it takes a lot of cash to buy gold these days.
I'm a total idiot compared to some of you regarding credit and currencies, so, forgive my ignorance, but, I find it unlikely the banks would close like they did in the 30s and the dollar would be suddenly devalued. Too dramatic.
Like the other guy said, the dollar has been and continues to be devalued this decade. The "Don't worry we'll print more" sort of thing.
Notice how well behaved energy prices have been. The officially permitted play ground of currency hedging is in currencies or precious metals.
Frankly, had I not found this sight I would have stopped reading anything about the market,since I missed making money during the turbulent time anyway. Reason?I don't think anybody makes money in stocks except the IBs. I wish one comes up with emperical evidence about all mutual funds and hedge funds(may be I should consider that as a PHD thesis). I am almost sure that the majority are losers on a time scale of between 10-20 years long or shorts. I think such a research has to be comissioned by Congress,to look at the validity of the market as a MODEL. So who is making the money then?of course beside the squid and company,money managers and fund managers are guaranteed their salary,and where they competent,we wouldn't have had that gyration,because they should have seen the sign way before us(since they are so smart and we are so dumb)and liquidated their positions long time ago......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jnZvTLMc8Y
i thought this link would fit best here..
this is a real black swan event, imho
Long gold and short stocks has been the play for ten years and probably continues until the Dow and gold meet like in 1980.
Every time you buy an ounce of gold, an angel whispers "F--k you" into a politician's ear.
+1210.80
Thanks for making me actually laugh out loud! Good stuff!
Arthur Levitt (*advisor to Goldman, board member Bloomberg LP) just now on Bloomberg re financial regulation:
and I paraphrase - On Barney Frank's House proposal (all power to the Fed) - Levitt says that Barney has approached this with meticulous attention to detail and while not perfect it's better than waiting another year. Levitt goes on to say that the Fed is best equipped to regulate banks etc. and suggests that Dodd's approach (reducing Fed's power) is novel but does not have the votes.
Was that ABBA playing in the background??? Worthless Dancing Queen..
Has Europe disappeared from ZH radar?. Excer[t from the Telegraph(and a great opportunity to short the big chief there gone):
"German banks have been warning for months that new G20 rules on higher capital ratios are making matters worse, acting in a pro-cyclical fashion at a time when credit is already under pressure. The banking federation has called for a moratorium.
The mystery is why the European Central Bank has allowed private lending in the eurozone to shrink by 0.8pc in the 12 months to October. The M3 has been contracting in absolute terms since April money, the first time this has happened in the region for over half a century.
Gabriel Stein from Lombard Street Research said the ECB risks making a grave error. "It is remarkable for a monetarist central bank not to react when the money supply and credit are contracting. This is likely to exacerbate deflation pressures late next year," he said."end of paragraph.
What is strange to me is that even those analyst still find it mysterious that the ECB is not doing anything to ease credit. Why the mystery?don't they think that ECB is acting in cohort with the FED in an effort to drive the dollar down in relation to the Euro?. So now the move is on Merkel,before she is checkmated by BB. When the Euro reaches multiples of the dollar,she would have to decide whether to turn DAI and BMW into national museums,or exchange them with China in return for some Ginzing.
Frankly,the issue of the Weinmar republic has become irrelevant at this juncture,simply because you are so interwind with world econmies,that if you don't jump in the ship,you risk drawning alone.
I'm a meathead, so I'll admit I don't get the point of measuring the S&P in gold. Nominally it's measured in US Dollars, correct? So I assume that by measuring it in gold you're trying to show that the recent April-Dec volatility is based on the value of the dollar and the recent gains until now have been a mirage...
But isn't gold demoninated in dollars? Measuring the S&P in something that is itself measured in dollars? Or is this being measured in ounces of gold? I think my head just exploded.
Y/X divided by Z/X = Y/Z
Graybeard here; I saw all this same gloom and doom shit during the late 70's and early 80's, the meltdown of Latin American, Far East, Russia etc
And by many of the same people.
Yea I know this time it's DIFFERENT.
Read some history before you cling to the doomsayers, like a broken clock they are right about twice in a generation, but then they always stay too long at the party and lose most of their gains.
No OG, it isn't different, you're correct. Our banks were mostly insolvent back then as well, and expend, extend & pretend actually worked to get us out from underneath that dung heap. What we have here is a bet that it can work again, except this time from the bottom of the Manur-ianas Trench.
haha, I was just looking for a graph of this today. very, very illuminating. thanks TD
11:22 AM Wed.
Conrgratulations Zero Hedge on your first huge crash due to HEAVY Traffic. Very Bearish sign for the market as people are looking for honesty and transparency. Godspeed on becoming the most Trust Worthy Financial Website on the Globe.
I noticed the Advertisers are increasing in quality. You earned it..Now lets make some changes in this nation.
From AN's post --
"The following information may be the most important we have ever published. One of our Intel sources, highly placed in banking circles, tells us that on 1/1/10 all banks that have received TARP funds have been informed by the Federal Reserve that they must further restrict any commercial lending. Loans have to be 75% collateralized, 50% of which has to be in cash, which is a compensating balance..."
The restriction in lending mentioned in the first paragraph of this article seems to jive with a piece I read yesterday on Mish Shedlock's website. At closing, Wells Fargo made a home buyer come up with a lot more down payment. This is after the mortgage was signed and supposedly a "done deal". Wells Fargo is acting strange.
Have you ever heard of a bank doing this to anyone before?
Not me.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/wells-fargo-closing-e...
How do I get the bberg page above?
Can anyone help re. the above bberg page. Typing .SPXGLD U INDEX <GO> doesn't work. Apologies for my stupidity
phaesed, waterwings (er f$ggottwings perhaps)... what a couple of pompous jackasses you both are. oh yes how "complicated" finance is! gotta be when shysters like you (MBA's, CPA's, even econ PhD's perhaps?)are involved, right? ignorant evasive screed. austrian economics... oh yeah... thats just too simple, right fellas? recall if you will;
" The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it."
JK Galbraith
.. this surely sums up the "complicated" excesses of the past several decades. we really needed shysters like you two to help us poor folk understand the sheer complexity of it all!!!!!!!!! Pass the sick bag alice!
You sir, have a cleft mouth. Did you read what I posted? Do you have a attention/short-term memory problem? I can't stand Anon pansies.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, call me what you will, but my experience of the human organism is that corruption prevails.
Much like Martin Luther, I have come to accept this even if I know that fundamentally, it is incorrect.
The shakedown proceeds in logical fashion because of the arrangement of totemic poles that automatically situate those that seek power at the expense of morality at the top.
According to this world view, I have concluded that all banks will be absorbed into JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs over time.
Bank of America will be absorbed by JP Morgan at the last, it serving as a ruse/front company for the process of consolidation much as Republican/Democrat has served as a diversion from Bohemian Grove.
Ultimately, all persons in the United States of America will be vassals of the Rockefeller family, as it actually is and has been for quite some time, only a bit more openly about it. All goods and products will be obtained from the Company Store, the only store in town, WalMart, a subsidiary of the Rockefeller family foundation.
All vassals will be required by law to have an RFID identification implant to perform monetary transactions
as Rockefeller clearly outlined to Arron Russo.
-MobBarley
Bob Chapman almost seemed convincing till he started on about illuminists which is just code for "nutjob" in my view.
SP By Any Other Name (SPXGLD) ....
....Would smell not quite as sweet.
Please note the chart depicts a very clear abc structure up from the March lows, and a truncated c wave ending in late August. Additionally the move down from the August high looks to be assuming an impulse wave structure.
from www.crudewire.com