Real Unemployment Rate Hits 16.8%
As markets digest the worse, yet somehow better, than expected 9.7% unemployment, the real state of the labor market is much worse, as indicated by the U-6 number, which has hit a recent record of 16.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. As a reminder, the "U-6 represents total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers." In other words, in reality the U.S. labor market is likely about as bad as Spain in terms of undoctored jobless data.
And while pundits were touting the inflection point in June when U-6 hit 16.5% and started to retrace, the most recent monthly data has crashed yet another green shoot in the great propaganda game.
Source: BLS
(13 votes)
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on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:26
#58558
Normal, orderly markets???
Heh, looks like the Robots are misfiring today........
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:31
#58567
... and in this scene, we see Bloomberg and CNBC, being played by Moe and Larry, trying to keep a lid on unemployment reporting, being played by Curly ...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:43
#58580
Big bank robots don't do random. They use free financing from Bernie to make money by skimming off the day traders (like silly valley did in the 1990s and the 1960s) and generally moving prices to inflict max pain on the short-term punters.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:02
#58619
Graphics don't fit on smaller screens. But the three stooges are great!
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:26
#58561
In reality, the 16.8% is low. Shadowstats.com pulls out all the gerrymandering done to the underlying methods of measurement over the years to produce a real number somewhere around (and most likely now north of) 20%.
They also produce corrected numbers for inflation and so on that will make you head spin. Take a look if you can.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:48
#58591
Do people trust shadowstats? I looked at one of Williams' statistical charts a while back, and it looked as if he was tacking a linear delta onto the relevant statistic. Which is pretty unlikely to be accurate, except occassionally by chance.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:00
#58614
John Williams, the man behind shadowstats.com, is more than willing to send you his raw data. Plus a lot of it is already on the web site.
Granted you must be a subscriber to receive some of this but that doesn't invalidate what he's doing. I spent a long weekend looking over his methods and data a few months ago and I feel comfortable with his conclusions. It passes the smell test as well, meaning it supports what we see, feel and experience on a daily basis.
Why is it people can easily see the manipulation in the markets by private and public entities but not recognize that the government would also manipulate the economic statistics so much of it's economic policies (and other publicly admitted manipulation) relies on?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:05
#58625
I full well belive all government bureaucracies juke statistics, so as to get bigger budgets for more subordinates, bigger offices, etc. I just wasn't impressed because the CPI or unemployment chart of his I saw just showed a straight linear adjustment. Which can't be right.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:51
#58688
We have laid off exactly 600,000 workers a month for approaching a solid year at this point.
WHY WOULD THE CHART NOT LOOK LINEAR?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:12
#58636
Suffice it to say shadowstats is a LOT closer to the truth than government stats.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:53
#58807
Williams has no vested interest in fudging anything, so I trust his results far more than a govt sponsored entity. In fact that would be the only way to produce credible results in my book, take the reporting entity and control of the methodology away from those who have a vested interest in misreporting.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:23
#58748
... and the stress tests were predicated on maximum unemployment of what? Just north of 10%, if I recall.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:55
#58810
I thought the extreme case was unemployment of 9%? I remember reading at the time that the unemployment rate had already exceeded the worst case scenario by the time they released the stress test results.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 11:12
#58857
Either way... kinda like NASA sending you on a ferris wheel to prepare for G-force.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:28
#58564
Not suprisingly, one in nine Americans are getting foodstamps: http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5825OT20090903?feedTy...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:04
#58622
Only because not all the ones that need them can get them. Probably one in six need em.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:07
#58630
In total one out of six are on the dole.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:51
#58804
woman living in the house behind me got food stamps for years although she was perfectly capable of working but had grown up on the system and learned that if she stayed there everything would be comfortable. Of course we have people on food stamps who don't need to be, it's because people will learn to work the system.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:32
#58569
1933 all over again
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:35
#58571
1930 all over again.
We have barely started into this Greater Depression (the Lesser Depression ran from Aug. '29 through Mar. '33, after which economic activity began picking up, slowly).
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:42
#58578
"the path of the consumer will dictate the shape of this recovery", the Barclays peachy chief economist right now on TV (it's a she)
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:44
#58582
And she's about 12 years old.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:47
#58588
u calling me a perv? True, she does look too young for a chief economist, which actually is refreshing...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:20
#58654
I can't wait until the young detractors strip while they proclaim the economy has recovered.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:55
#58603
And housing is on the upswing since it is not dependent on employment.... ROFLMAO
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:57
#58608
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA; current post of the day
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 13:15
#59064
Im so sick and tired of this bs. Employment is at 18% counting gov jimmy numbers, *U6, U3.
You cannot have a recovery without employment. unless its PFM. There are millions of perfect storm couples from 40 - 60 who have lost their jobs at the same time and have fallen off the employment chart. They have sold what little assets they have and are living off 401K. Basic necessities only.
Were basically Fucked!!! Thank you Greenspan, Clinton and Obama...you too Bush. You could have stopped those greedy politicians. i.e. Rains who collected $200M from Fannie.
Dick Grasso collected $190M from a not for profit by stacking the board with those he regulated...brilliant.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:59
#58609
Actually I think it is closer to April 1930. Where is Louis T. McFadden? He should be popping up any time now...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:06
#58627
imo it may ba 5 X worse.
not 1933, try 1929 the first micro drop. people are way too short sighted.
even if dow moves up to 14,000 again it may not change the ultimate destination.
after 70 years of price advance, a relative correction is natural.
....its about the beauty of the trade, not the money. waiting and then
reacting....strength and honor
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:13
#58637
the dollar will move to 14 000 iff DXY is somewhere in the 12-13 range. no scratch that; IT WILL move to 14 000 no matter what; and the drop which will happen when it does; will mark the end of civilisation ( not a joke )
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:36
#58572
118k mystery jobs added by the B/D model, can I add mystery dollars to my bank account?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:56
#58605
Only if you own the bank
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:19
#58650
lol
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:37
#58780
Just wait till after the markets close today, you'll prolly be able to buy one, or two. My bet is four closures today..we'll see.
Once you own it just add funny money to make it good.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 13:17
#59067
LOL..The best way to rob a bank is to own it!
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:41
#58577
it's all good! NFP change from prev month +60k. less bad = fantastic.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:46
#58586
fantastic news, more jobs lost because companies not able to get enough work for their employees so earnings falling, so buy buy buy more shares in the companies after all they have cut costs even more now they have fewer workers to pay
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:47
#58587
More jobs were lost in August than in July.
From the BLS web site: the birth/death model bumped up the August jobless figure by a healthy 54%...118K jobs. Actual jobs lost was 334K
So, this figure is actually WORSE than July's official job loss figure of 247K plus 32K B/D model = 279K
Is it any wonder that the overall unemployment rate increased?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:08
#58633
More jobs were actually lost in August than in July.
From the BLS web site: the birth/death model bumped up the August jobless figure by a healthy 54%...118K jobs. Actual jobs lost was 334K
So, this figure is actually WORSE than July's official job loss figure of 247K plus 32K B/D model = 279K
Is it any wonder that the overall unemployment rate increased?
Opps, they just revised July's numbers down 49K. Still, @ 328K (for July's revised) August's numbers were worse.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:48
#58590
Christine Romer is such a rolly, polly happy person.
I have massive distrust of happy people.
Why the heck can't someone in CNBC ask her about the mysterious b/d model additions. And then note that in the absence of those phantom additions the number would be worse have been closer to -330,000 (worse than expected).
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:50
#58595
right now she moved to Bloomberg TV, all media assault
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:59
#58611
Well as long as the administration is going to get a massive fail on healthcare, they have to go with a full court press on the economy.
Mid terms are a coming.....
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:06
#58628
right, curious dollar bid, Rosie thinks they will try to gut it, because of the elections, but it is not working out great with that much QE, as the EUR is such a value I tell ya...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:53
#58598
Romer tries to be as much of a happy salesman as Art Laffer, Laura Tyson, and Peter Wallison. They are all way slicker than her though. Of course, even they pale behind the true master, Robert Rubin. Even today, he is amazingly slick.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:56
#58602
"thank goodness we put in place the stimulus that we did, it's paying off"
taking forecasts on where the SPX and the TNX are in 6 months based on that "recovery"?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:08
#58617
"And we are cautiously optimistic.."
Sounds like the need to translate is in order.
Success - Is proclaimed in the most glowing terms.
Marginal success - Is described as a situation that is well in hand.
Total and abject failure - Is described as a situation where success can still be achieved.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:03
#58620
Andy, the bridesmaid was a much, much better visual. I may not shop in that aisle but i have a keen appreciation of aesthetics.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:18
#58649
for you, Lizzy, always
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 12:59
#59033
ahhh, the slutty blond.
Merci, kind andy.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 13:31
#59095
I aim to please---especially the slutty blonds---you are most welcome. Will do that again?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 14:08
#59128
well, the slutty blond is a classic amongst the boys (who will look at that picture and think "how long will it take to undo all those fricking bows").
from what i hear the slutty blonds are easily pleased :)!
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 14:28
#59151
LOL hahahaha
Since it's Friday afternoon, and I got 3 points on my license for the first picture I had to do it
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 14:31
#59153
IME; slutty blonds are usually not slutty at all, but a magnificent and very very smart women. but that's just my experience; i find myself lucky :D
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 14:39
#59170
Nothing sexier than a super-hot woman that is shy. Sounds like an oxymoron, but it exists (at least 1). Now that is luck, while you can keep her of course...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 15:27
#59241
alas andy, few freckles.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 15:29
#59246
that's OK :)
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 14:55
#59206
CB, i will take your very learned opinion on this matter. As a red head i have no personal knowledge on this issue :)
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 15:08
#59217
got freckles?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:09
#58634
that man/woman suffers from an extreme case of aesthetic deficiency
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:15
#58642
You do know that some of us here on the west coast eat our breakfast while reading ZH. That picture does not help the appetite. It does the complete opposite. Lol!!!!
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:19
#58651
corrected error above
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:49
#58684
Thanks! Now thats something you could sink your T into!
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:27
#58663
Arggghhh... did you have to insert that picture... I got the same feeling as when Kathy Lee Gifford pops up in Robo's postings... I think a the Romer picture should be a 3 point ding on your license to insert pictures on ZH :-)
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:46
#58677
compare and contrast with the second one, that should make it a lot better!
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:25
#58757
Oh, it's a payoff all right.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:43
#58787
Okay...can someone provide more info on this "woman"? She freaks me out every time I see her...everything is so cheery and rosey and smiley. I keep thinking she is going to pull an apple pie out of a hat.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:45
#58795
focus on the blond chick (have no idea who she is)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christina_Romer
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:58
#58826
If Summers is Moe, Geithner is Larry and Bernanke is Curly... then Romer is Shemp.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 12:01
#58927
I can't see anything behind those eyes.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 13:18
#59070
look at the size of this Cow, she ate whole stimulas...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 13:27
#59087
ROTFLMAOWTIME... oh my gosh Squworl... I am usually really kind and tolerant of everyone's differences (and you of all people know that)... but that was really pretty funny...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 13:33
#59099
The only difference here is that it takes 9,000 calories of protien to maintain that body. I consume 1,100. do the math, how much money does it take to feed the cow? Its no different that having an obese Surgeon General...
It's friday and im in one of my somber moods with all this constant bs coming at me from all angles. This is where I come to unload and make you laugh..x
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:16
#58643
I'm from GA, the land of the side-hustle. On top of that I have some very enterprising friends who have started and folded businesses before as part of this whole side-hustle culture. Nobody I know even in the most peripheral sense has started a new business or hired anybody new in the past 6 months or longer. Well actually I take that back, I know some people in Cali who are getting into the legal marijuana trade, but thats the extent of it :-)
So yeah, I concur wholeheartedly that this whole b/d charade is quite the load of bull.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:38
#58781
As a fellow Ramblin' Wreck and current ATLien, I concur. If new-immigrant entrepreneurialism is any indication of economic health, it's been dead for about a year and a half. Fortunate for us they aren't in the statistic anyway, or else we'd really be screwed! Oh wait...
The only thing keeping the lights on in Atlanta right now is the fact that we're hubs for a lot of companies that staff some pretty stout folks, and even that's starting to errode. All the GMAT and GRE shelves at B&N/Borders are suspiciously empty.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:32
#58665
because no one at CNBC is willing to ask any tough questions of any Obama admin mouthpiece. really, what do you expect from the TMZ of "business news"
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:36
#58669
She has incompetent smile, not happy at all.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:32
#58769
Many of her economic papwers embrace Marxism. Why do you think she has the job?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:50
#58594
If I go gambling with $1,000, and the first day I lose $500, the next day I lose $300, that means I am on the right path, right? LOL
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:54
#58599
That 16% number is also the number of US citizens that have a brain. Except that percentage is falling.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:54
#58601
household survey 392k jobs lost
b/d model 112k jobs fudged
49k jobs downard revision for the last 2 months
workweek hours flat (these will have to go up way before employment improves)
wages are up according to the release, but that reflects 11% minimum wage hike in July
teenage unemployment 25.5%
very poor
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 08:57
#58607
Birth death adjustments to keep the Hopium bubble going for those that don't look into the reality behind the spin and propaganda headlines
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:00
#58612
We let another employee go last week. We have now futuresized the company by 40%.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:00
#58613
It's also important to note the increasing spread between the U3 (official) and U6 numbers over time. Starting from Jan '99, the spread between U3 and U6 has averaged 3.95%. For August, the spread is now 7.1%, matching its max value last seen in March. The amount of marginally attached and 'forced part-time' workers has grown steadily since early 2008.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:06
#58618
Here is a nice chart...facts are a bitch (once again)
http://www.trivisonno.com/withholding-taxes-chart
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:23
#58658
An old boss of mine once said "don't confuse the issue with facts." It's likely he was speaking about the market.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:34
#58667
That must have been cool to work at the White House...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:03
#58621
This U6 number will hit 25% in the not to distant future and stay there for a very long time.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:05
#58626
Unemployment not important folks, please consider:
Spain rallies 20% despite collapsing economy & 18.5% unemployment!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/with-highest-jobless-rate-spain-rallies-2009-09-03
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:41
#58673
LOL
"We believe that the market has missed the simple fact that the unraveling of the Spanish market is structural and likely to far outlast the current macro-economic crisis," said Bienenstock.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:07
#58629
T-i-i-i-i-me is on our side, yes it is.
Look, anyone who has taken history class in high school 'learned' about the Great Depression, and how Hoover (who was incorrectly defined as a free-market capitalist) was always quoted as saying that "The worst is over".
The exact same absurdities are propagated from the mouth of Dennis Kneale to the door step of the White house. It'll take a few more years for people to realize the truth. Don't forget, many people were in denial about their tech stocks, just like many people are in denial about their house values -- give it a few more years of unemployment numbers that refuse to contract, and that's when most people will see more clearly.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:14
#58640
Exactly. Nasdaq peaked at 5000 9 years ago. Where is it today.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:15
#58641
Don't you mean T-i-i-i-i-my is on our side?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:17
#58647
Is something going on with Deutsche Bank?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:20
#58653
SW; why ?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:46
#58676
rumors (?), no substantiation; a German-speaking poster on another forum has cut-and-pasted concerns from an unknown German forum, no links, I can't confirm. I thought I'd poke the assembly here and see if anything was known.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:53
#58693
i did the same thing with Banco Santander yesterday and got a nice feedback from Steak and PM; and someone mentioned that ING might go down. They also provided me with some link and data to verify my concern. But; lets speculate; we know Austrian banks are exposed to Eastern Europe; and most of the leverage came from German banks. It would not surprise me one bit if DB was in trouble. If you find out anything else; please post; I'm browsing trough some Spanish financial forums in search for information concerning Banco; but haven't found nothing worth posting here.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:36
#58771
CB - I would like to get your read on a stab at this one.
Is there a potential disruption in what I refer to as the great circle route of liquidity washing. After all, many of the institutions that have been swirling in the mill are all players in this. If I had a better understanding in deciphering open source data I would look at potential impingements coming from Russia (regardless of the Monaco flash for appearances), the rest of CCE as you suggest (with Sweden now at a negative rate, redirection?), potentially the Latin American narco flows (now that the US & Colombia have a pact in hand) and with the collapse in side flows from Africa. Are there issues emerging with China's inability to maintain PSI on these lines, especially with the talk of China looking to re-no some of their commodity swaps?
I cannot but help thinking that somewhere along this 4-6 trillion pipeline there are issues developing. Hence the ripple effects as the disrupted flow hits various "pumping stations". Anyone with an understanding of flow & vibration harmonics in large liquid pipeline engineering considerations please chime in.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 13:26
#59086
News from Monaco friends...Russians no longer allowed to buy. They inflated everything and can no longer pay their bills. Dubai is bust and no longer subsidizing. It's a ghost town except for residents and tourist and even that has dropped off.
Cannes is experiencing sever downturn in festivals and conferences which has been the butter to the baguette. Its global..
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:45
#58675
Didn't you get the memo, its "Funemployment" not unemployement.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 11:58
#58923
HA! That's rich. And a very useful trend IMO, although I am sure I am yet to fully grasp the implications.
Next thing you know the funempoyed are going to abandon the monetary system altogether. *crosses fingers*
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:48
#58681
I am sick of reading *extreme* arguments. Maybe the employments numbers are fudged, so the other extreme has to be true!
The truth lies somewhere in between. What defines civilian labor force? Households moving from two income to single income will result in high unemployment number.
What I am intersted in is the %age of household unemployed. In 1930s mainly the men worked. One person loses job and whole household lost the bread earner. So to what extent that is happening now? I wanna know that number.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:45
#58794
When households depend on both incomes to maintain their lifestyle, does it much matter?
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:54
#58698
Tyler wrote: "In other words, in reality the U.S. labor market is likely about as bad as Spain in terms of undoctored jobless data."
Another aspect where Spain and the USA are parallel is their respective stock markets' recoveries off the March bottoms. The ^IBEX, which is the Spanish equivalent of the DJIA, is up 66.9% from its 2009 bottom.
I have lived in Spain and we are there often. The Spanish economy is characterized by structural under and un-employment. Onerous labor laws discourage employers from hiring traditional full time employees, and a massive swath of 20-40 years olds are part-time workers, while 50 years olds are considered washed up. Once a woman hits 35, she is considered over the hill. Basically, it's a worker's nightmare and those who have jobs are underpaid. Still, their home prices managed to appreciate like 800% from 2000 through 2005, and have only modestly corrected (like 3%).
Apparently, the worse shape your economy is in, the more bouncy your stock market gets. What a mess.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 09:55
#58699
Tyler wrote: "In other words, in reality the U.S. labor market is likely about as bad as Spain in terms of undoctored jobless data."
Another aspect where Spain and the USA are parallel is their respective stock markets' recoveries off the March bottoms. The ^IBEX, which is the Spanish equivalent of the DJIA, is up 66.9% from its 2009 bottom.
I have lived in Spain and we are there often. The Spanish economy is characterized by structural under and un-employment. Onerous labor laws discourage employers from hiring traditional full time employees, and a massive swath of 20-40 years olds are part-time workers, while 50 years olds are considered washed up. Once a woman hits 35, she is considered over the hill. Basically, it's a worker's nightmare and those who have jobs are underpaid. Still, their home prices managed to appreciate like 800% from 2000 through 2005, and have only modestly corrected (like 3%).
Apparently, the worse shape your economy is in, the more bouncy your stock market gets. What a mess.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:31
#58767
http://www.myinvestmentanalysis.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/green-sho...
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:52
#58806
Just imagine what the unemployment number would look like if Mugabe Jr. hadn't saved 500 million jobs.
Regards,
Nancy Pelosi
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:55
#58812
Nice picture... Geithner on the left, Summmers on the right, Brenanke in the middle.
As for marginally attached by U3:
1.If you run out of unemployment benefits, you are marginally attached. You are no longer counted as unemployed by U3.
Are you any less unemployed?
2. If you are unemployed and there are no jobs in your occupation to apply for in your area, you are marginally attached and therefore not unemployed by U3.
Examples: Construction workers. In imploded bubble markets there is virtually no construction work. But construction workers often travel out of area or out of state looking for work. By this definition they are not unemployed by U3.
These questions are asked in the 60k monthly survey done by BLS as a factor in determining U3.
Are they any less unemployed?
We won't even get into the highly flawed birth/death ratio model that adds jobs from the small business market that supposedly were missed by other methods of BLS data. Bush used it to add a record 1.7 million phantom jobs to the 2007 totals. Obama is on pace to top that in 2009. In a typical month any where from 90k to 1.3 million job losses are subtracted from the totals because of supposed job creation in small businesses that could not be found in any hard data...
Like all of the above methods, what a great way to under report job losses or over report job creation for political gain...
Why doesn't the BLS use IRS payroll data streaming in monthly? Hard data? A good, often asked question by statisticians that goes unanswered...
The American public is so math deficient they could not understand a graph, statistic or ratio if you hit them in the head with it.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 10:57
#58825
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/unemployment-stress-tests-unemployed.html
and now it is worse than the worst case scenario for the banks but still the banks share prices go up after all, they will just get more money from the fed anyway.
Can't fail, this is a riskless market now so forget shorting and just buy any junk you can
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 11:55
#58914
At the bar, people sometimes want to know about this "financial thing" and i indulge them. The first thing I point out is that all the statistics put out by the government are false. That one taes a while to fully sink in, because when they ask for the actual unemployment and I give them the 15% and now 16.8 U-6 figure they shake theire heads in wonderment.
"You can't just make shit up like that. That's way overboard."
"But if you count all the actually unemployed, including those who are no longer receiving unemployment enfits, then thats the number you end up with."
They go on to throw out a number in the 12% range to account for this becuase all of a sudden they're experts and then a light bulb blinks in their head that you have to measure unemplyment the same way you did during the Great Depression or else all this U-6 bullshit is just fearmongering. I mention Bill clinton's rule change on reporting and the conversation starts in earnest here. Next subject: mark to market and that gets people very very angry.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 15:20
#59234
I lost my job in January when my employer did mass layoffs. Ever since then, I've been freelancing. Thank God I went nuts last year teaching myself CSS and Flash. Otherwise, I'd be shit out of luck. But, I'll tell you one thing, the employment ads are crazy. They ask for a veritable laundry list of skills. My favorite is the one where they ask for CSS, JavaScript, XHTML, Flash, PHP, MySQL, 3DS Max, After Effects, SEO, and copywriting. What else? Why don't I stick the broom up my ass and sweep the floor?
Oh, and I forgot to mention, they were offering $30k - $40k.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 17:12
#59339
Unfortunately my friend, desperation sets in and people will work for minimum wage to feed their families. I know several Ivy lawyers and bankers including seasoned professionals working as waiters in Major cities across the nation.
According to the architecture that is to frame the change of our once great nation. They want it to collapse and seize it and socialise it.
They are well aware of how horrific unemployment and will only work to make it worse. Look at our stock markets???
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 19:54
#59469
According to the architecture that is to frame the change of our once great nation. They want it to collapse and seize it and socialise it.
They are well aware of how horrific unemployment and will only work to make it worse.
Yes. Their actions drag out the pain, by preventing the cleansing wave of resets (defaults). They are hoping desperation will bring people clamoring for a cultish government saviour, and are helping their biggest patrons use stolen taxpayer money to consolidate their empires.
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 21:21
#59542
this administration is going to lie until we are all marching in the streets..........jobless recovery they all say with a big smile.............but they are losing their jobs too, just like our industry when there were only about 100 closed companies, the employed on the site were vicious that is until THEY WERE GONE TOO.
This is lava and it is going to hit all 50 states and hit people you know if not you directly. 20% UNEMPLOYMENT, WHAT DO YOU THINK THAT IS GOING TO DO TO THE FORECLOSURE NUMBERS.......
During the Depression NOT ALL PEOPLE LOST THEIR JOBS, but so many did that it wasn't pleasant for the ones still working.
This administration is WASTING IT'S TIME AND ENERGY TRYING TO MAKE A NAME FOR THEMSELVES WITH BRAND NEW SHINY PROGRAMS INSTEAD OF FIXING WHAT IS WRONG.
THAT STIMULUS BILL WAS PURE LEFT WING PAYBACK GARBAGE...........AND THE WORLD IS GETTING IT.........
GOODBYE OBAMA AND GOODBYE LYING DEMOCRATS AND FINALLY GOODBYE LYING STATE RUN MEDIA WHO ARE LOSING THEIR JOBS AS FAST AS OUR INDUSTRY DID...........
HOPE AND CHANGE HOPE AND CHANGE HOPE AND CHANGE
THAT EVIL BUSH WITH HIS 4% UNEMPLOYMENT AND HIS 14.5 STOCK MARKET AND TAX CUTS FOR EVERYONE...........EVIL EVIL MAN
REMEMBER 3 YEARS AGO ALMOST TO THE DAY WE TURNED OUR CONGRESS OVER TO THE DEMOCRATS............HOW'S THAT WORKING FOR US.............
on Fri, 09/04/2009 - 21:49
#59559
glad to know more people are finding out the truth
on Sat, 09/05/2009 - 09:00
#59806
People on welfare who are able bodied should also be counted in unemployment statistics. So what does that make it?