This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Real Unemployment Rises 0.3% To 16.8%, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Number Near All Time Highs
With economic optimism back over the U-3 data, which was "surprisingly" not impacted by mid-winter snow (but as Art Cashin says, a horrible number would have been seen as a buying catalyst due to the "non-recurring" nature of snow in February), many seem to have missed that real unemployment, or the BLS' U-6 series actually climbed by 0.3%, to 16.8% from 16.5% in January. Additionally, the Non-Seasonally Adjusted U-6 number was barely changed, and was flat at 17.9%, just a hair away from January's record 18%.
Also, just as relevantly, a comparable data series tracked by Gallup indicated the February "underemployment" came in at 19.8%, virtually unchanged from January's 19.9% reading.
Some more from Gallup:
These results are based on February interviews with more than 19,000 adults in the U.S. workforce, aged 18 and older. Gallup classifies
respondents as "employed" if they are employed full time or are
employed part time but do not want to work full time. Gallup classifies
respondents as "underemployed" if they are employed part time but want
to work full time or are unemployed. Unemployed respondents are not
employed, looking for work, and available for work. February's 19.8%
underemployed estimate includes 10.6% who are unemployed and 9.2% who
are working part time but wanting full-time employment (neither
estimate is seasonally adjusted, and both are based on adults 18 and
older). Both figures are similar to January's estimates.
Finally, some insight into that great commodity we can't seem to get enough of - hope.
Hope for finding a job remained flat in February: 40% of the
underemployed were hopeful that they would find a job in the next four
weeks, compared to 39% in January. Gallup asks the unemployed whether
they think they will have a job in the next four weeks, and asks those
who are employed part time but want to work full time whether they
think they will have a job in the next four weeks that requires them to
work 30 hours or more per week. Hope among both the unemployed (47%)
and part-timers wanting to work full time (32%) remained unchanged from
January to February.
»
- 14006 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
"....many seem to have missed that real unemployment, or the BLS' U-6 series actually climbed by 0.3%, to 16.8% from 16.5% in January."
You can't miss what you're not looking for. Hive mentality and group-think only allow for viewing of the narrowly constructed and perpetually manipulated U-3.
Don't worry, be happy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc
Well, you know, someone working at Starbucks part time because they can't get a job with their advanced degree -- can we really call them unemployed? (*sarcasm*)
I had similar thoughts about the definitions being used by Gallup and the Bureau of Lying Statistics.
Underemployed should include all engineer or scientist or architechs or accountants or MBA's or ... that are working in McJobs or as Walmart greeters or waiting tables or in other roles that fail to utilize the higher level skills and talents of the workforce.
But honesty is not the balliwick of BLS and Pollsters. Manage the perception, do not report reality.
There are Lies, Damned Lies and then there are Statistics.
And on average (positive correlation with declining income?) these wage workers are paying ~$35/month in banking "convenience" fees:
Something else interesting from the article, probably nothing:
You can see Jekyll Island a mile away, across the sound. Always wondered what it looked like.
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=st.%20simons%20island&oe=utf-8&client=fire...
Okay, don't spank me, I know this is off topic now, but kewl! The island motto: "It's all good!"
LOL
Global banking cartel conspiracy: It's All Good!
I think the Mises Institute just had, or is having, a lecture series/conference on Jekyll Island, all about the Fed.
Another fun google map:
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=20601+Bohemi...
(switches to satellite view..."Now if I were Moloch, where would I be hiding?")
Of course, the underemployed engineer working a McJob will (likely) be rejected for an engineering position: Obviously said engineer must not be very good, otherwise s/he wouldn't have gotten laid-off and forced to accept a McJob. Plus, by working at a non-engineering job, their skills are no longer up to date.
Blame the victim. Lather, rinse, repeat. *shrugs*
I hear the government is hiring...
I wonder how manipulated the census count/numbers will be? Since "government" spending is often determined by the census, who in their right mind would consider the census results as pure or correct? If nearly every government agency was or is a tool of the powers that be, why would we expect anything other than more of the same with the census?
I can't wait to hear all those gasps of shock when the census determines that certain troublesome (politically powerfully or vulnerable) groups have suddenly decreased in size or dispersed and thus are no longer going to receive as much funding.
Let the games begin.
As long as the government hiring can be juggled to match the 36000 that lost their jobs they can claim that unemployment remains at ~9.7%... U6 not withstanding.
Lot's of .gov jobs: Hole diggers, Hole fillers
Long term unemployment doubled in the last year.
The economy needs to add 100,000 jobs a month just to keep pace with population growth.
Victory for the bulls, indeed.
"Victory for the bulls, indeed."
Hi Lizzy,
As with any addiction, once you surrender to group think and the hive mentality, any glimpse of reality only drives you deeper into the hive. Once seen from this perspective, this relentless market drive upward must happen in order to perpetuate and support the delusion. This is why "bubbles" (another name for group think hive mentality in action) last so much longer than a clear mind would think possible. The illusion is a positive feedback loop that consumes itself to feed itself.
Bubbles, hive mentality, all of that psychology - while interesting - doesn't matter. The "hive" is making money while the bears continue to point out statistics that - while interesting - don't seem to be relevant.
Ahhh....the madness of crowds.
The funny thing is that when interesting becomes relevant, it does so without warning and with a massive bang.
See LEH's balance sheet for how quickly "math" becomes relevant.
Perhaps. But for now, the only thing relevant is making money. Go long, keep stops tight. Make money.
Or just read/type countless posts of bearish news until, eventually, someday it comes to pass. This market is pure manipulation and bullshit. There's no way to fight it.
Sadly I know that, I've lost 30% of my savings following bearish advisors in the last two weeks. I'm throwing in the towel, and becoming a bull today.
Hey Macfly, Sorry to hear about your losses, but if I knew a little more about you I might be tempted to use what you wrote as a sell signal. Like when Time magazine put housing on the cover of its magazine.
Wait until Wednesday and see if you still feel that way.
In my world, making money is pretty far down the relevance list -- morality, happiness, my family, being healthy, social stability, capital preservation, and probably several other things rank above making money. Of course, I did make a nice amount of money between 2007 and mid-2009, so I can afford to tread water waiting for reality to catch up with the crowd. When it does, I expect to make another nice amount of money.
The only ethical way to play this corrupt economy is to short it. I refuse to go long any American corporation. I'm happy to just bide my time till I can short the crap out of them.
The problem is that when the market goes "bang", the odds of your stop-loss order being filled are miniscule. Maybe it will get filled 50% lower than your stop price. There goes your profit.
Agreed. A stop loss is only effective in an "orderly" down market and it assumes the price you select is "passed" and thus the trigger is tripped. Overnight or opening gaps have been know to render useless this strategy.
Use small positions. Hedge. Buy options. there are tons of ways to protect oneself.
Staying or going short isn't one of them.
Oh, it matters. It really, really matters.
Why do people constantly assume that "bears", while negative about the end game and the manipulation, are invested exclusively that way? I would consider myself a "bear" but I'm most certainly not short at the moment but slightly positive in my positions. And judging from many of the comments, most people are either neutral or out of the market entirely, with very few all short.
Recognizing the insanity is one thing. Articulating it is another. Investing now for that eventual negative event is another. And allowing the market to dictate how to invest while discussing the insanity is also a possibility. These are all possibilities that can result from being a "bear".
Anyone else find this discussion of "hive" mentality and "addicts".... ironic?
Maybe, but only among the anonymous.
Ooooo...that's a zinger!
Nowhere did I make that assumption. But I will now. Most of the time, it's true. If you're long and strong, I'm happy for you.
But the very nature of all of these dark and gloomy posts - while statistically correct - makes people think the "end is nigh" and leads one to position themselves appropriately.
Long and strong has been a losing strategey over the last decade. People who think the end is nigh (gold bugs) have done very well.
Who is positioned incorrectly?
LOL
How can you possibly know what a person's investment position is based upon that person's posted views and opinion? You're general statement about investment positions is a ball faced assumption based upon your biased opinion, which is no better or worse than any other biased opinion.
I would consider myself a bear, but if you've at all been paying attention over the past year you would know not to short this market. That doesn't mean you go long either. The prudent thing for a bear to do is to go to all cash and wait for the major decline. The market has been going sideways the past few months anyway. Not a lot of money to be made in a tightly oscillating market.
...unless one is a squid.
Obvious reversal.
Any idea on the birth/death adjustment?
Late reply, but the answer is the b/d adjustment added 97,000 jobs, mostly in prof/bus services, educ/health services, and hospitality and leisure. Full information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
Obama's unemployment numbers will look better next month when the 2010 Census hiring begins to kick in for end of March going into April - then wait 4-6 weeks out when all those folks get let go due to "Lack of Work".
Over 3 million are in the census applicant pool nationwide. A portion of those are ineligible to work for the government though. But in any case, they are going to be hiring many people in a short amount of time for a short amount of time. And then when they are let go for lack of work they will all get to collect unemployment.
I dedicate this song to the BLS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PA43ETEU1Vg
Lies, lies, lies yeah!
It really knocks me out to hear the MSM tout the claim that the unemployment rise was less than forecast. The last announcement was also made with positive spin but I don't recall anyone saying, at that time, that the numbers were predicted to get worse at the time of this announcement. The last time the numbers came out they implied things were getting better...everything was looking cheery... "not as bad as we expected...." Now we hear the same baloney again; what are those ministers predicting today for the next announcement? Are they predicting more bad in the future?
Report to a re-education camp immediately. ;-)
I'm just hoping when we hit the same unemployment level as France that America will start producing more good wine.
Good luck. The only thing that is produced here is group-think, stress, unhealthy mental and physical habits, and of course "hope".
Keep the fkn "hope", I prefer reality any day of the week.
I beg to differ. We already _do_ have excellent American red wine. But agree that we need more!
ps. screw the politicians.
A bit overpriced though.
...and the census worker that comes to my house looks like French actress, Eva Green:
http://www.icelebritymag.com/pictures/eva-green/eva-green1.jpg
Eva: Sir, how many children do you have?
Me: Soixante neuf?
Eva: How many days do you typically work in a month?
Me: Soixante neuf?
Etc....
Yeah!
"Would you like to do the "soixante-neuf avec moi, mademoiselle"?
Look! It's Ed Norton in his Fight Club role, in France!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34xbv0Z80gg
Hum, America has hit the same unemployment level as France.
And here's what's propping the numbers up:
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2041-Employment-Situation-Welcome-To-C...
Denninger is like a fish trying to swim up a waterfall. He's going up against a man (Bernanke) with unlimited resources (electronic printing press and a squadron of helicopters).
He's been screaming and yelling that the SPX will be 666 again, but he's been wrong for a full year now. Yeah, I see deflation everywhere, including the $3.20 gas here in California.
Dont forget the 1.2 million temp workers the goverment is hiring for the census.
But for the first time in months Mr Simore is optimistic on his job prospects. He applied for a job with the US Census Bureau, which is hiring 1.2m workers to carry out its decennial population count on April 1. The job, which pays $20 (€14.30, £13.30) an hour, would make Mr Simore a foot soldier in the largest civilian mobilisation of workers in US history – an effort likely to give a temporary boost to a battered jobs market.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0eecb496-27c5-11df-863d-00144feabdc0.html
Real pumping action going on in the futures. ES-34,000 contracts at 7:30a.m. central. Usually don't see that kind of vol. before 8:30a.m.C.
Why do we need the bls when gallop can do this for us? It's nearly the same method. They don't have to adjust anything. And gallop could sell the data To the quants of the world who give a shit. Sell the bls or just disband it.
this kind of analysis is so delusional....everyone is out with nuclear powered geiger counters in the mojave desert looking for loose pocket change.....
what a joke...
Has anybody seen the birth / death model number? I can't find it.
did you look in rippley's believe it or not?
Birth death added another 97K
Supply and Demand. Economics 101 and 102.
For decades TPTB flooded the market with
labor. The flood continues. We must
increase the H1B visa limit! Each year
thousands of new F1 and F2 visas show up
on the US taxpayer's doorstep to qualify
for a free degree and 2.5 years of work
after their graduation but guess what
they can't find work now either!
Supply and Demand. Economics 101 and 102.
At the same time do your trade deals and
the labor unions bend over and take it
quietly. Close the factories. Small
businesses destroyed by the dumped output
of slave labor camps surrounded by
ecological damage while the advocates of
the earth bend over and take it quietly.
Supply and Demand. Economics 101 and 102.
TPTB whacked it on both ends. Have they
reformed yet? Have they gone back to
freshman economics yet? Do they still
wonder why their tax base has eroded?
No hope yet? Still waiting for the turn?
Supply and Demand. Economics 101 and 102.
Large reduction is "size of labor force" is more real than economists think.
First, maybe 1M people have decided to retire early. Think 60 year olds who have done "ok". Leading edge of baby-boom was born in 46, so they are 64 this year. Demographic retirement level is high.
Second, maybe 1M people who have greencard or H1B have decided to return home. More opportunity in other countries means less job seeking in US.
This will AMP recovery and lower "unemployment rate" going forward. In 1-yr, unemployment will be <8%, 1-yr later <6%. Classic recovery.
-BBH
lol
oh wait, you're being serious.
lol
One nice thing about the Gallup poll is it treats the 0.1% (10bp for purists) improvement as unchanged. After all this is based on polling, so there is a margin of error. BLS polls as well, but everyone treats these numbers as absolute, and there is never a discussion of margin of error or statistical significance
I just watched Labor Sec Hilda Solis on CNBS and she held up graphs that showed how Bush was responsible for millions of job losses and as soon as Obama came into office things started to improve. I recall seeing similar graphs during a congressional hearing a few weeks ago as well as on barackobama.com and at HuffPo
We ( bears , or at least people with calculators) should stay out of the market completely for while, and let bulls to get as high as possible. What goes up , will go down ( ask any female). But the higher it will get the more speed it will pick up on the way down under it's own weight.
From Drudge:
REID: GOOD NEWS, ONLY 36000 LOST THEIR JOBS TODAY
Harry Reid is a douche.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LC211h9AY-4
Ah, I just set a Personal Record of 200 lbs for 5 reps on the bench press. Under-employed (self), life is good!
I completely forgot about the census worker hiring. Are they currently on the payroll for training purposes?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0eecb496-27c5-11df-863d-00144feabdc0.html
Yes. I have a friend who's been in training for something like a month now. She says that the month of training could have been accomplished in a single 8-hour day for most people with an IQ in high double digits. She also noted that a not-insignificant number of the people are ex-USPS workers.
"...many seem to have missed that real unemployment, or the BLS' U-6 series actually climbed by 0.3%, to 16.8% from 16.5% in January"
The beauty of U6 is that it shows how many real unemployed are being excluded from U3 for political purposes.
Run out of Unemployment insurance? Marginally attached. No longer unemployed by U3.
Cannot find a job to apply for in the last 4 weeks? Discouraged Worker. No longer unemployed by U3. Know anyone in the construction trades that can't find jobs to apply for?
Now reform the Birth/Death Ratio by using REAL tax with holding hard data from the IRS instead of economists non real world pipe dreaming...
WTF: e.g. Owner's Equivalent Rent, anyone? Anyone?
BLS Unemployment Numbers = Statisticians & Economists on CRACK.
While "real" unemployment may be a larger number, the "real" market does not see this as material so what is the point. Yet another up, day after another permabull article from ZH. Yawn. I guess the best thing to do is wait for ZH to become bullish and then short the market :-)
here is a question, what was the avergae income value of a job given the working populace in 2006 and what is the average income value of a job given the working populace now.
Adding jobs back is one thing but if they are lower value, we still have a hell of a hill to climb and standards of living have fallen. That wasn't what the american dream tin had written on it when we bought it.
Ministry of Propoganda working overtime. Assume all governemnt numbers are for one purpose..to make the government look good.
Bloomberg and CNBC announcers this morning were giddy with excitment over the jobs numbers I think one of them had an accident.
Use to think Bloomberg had more street cred but am beginning to see no difference between them and CNBS. Thank G*d for Zero Hedge.
Stay thirsty my friends.
I find these discussions of facts and figures tiring.
The truth is that its like discussing who broke the coffee urn in the lunchroom. We all know Dave broke the coffee urn but we also know that Dave is not going to fess up to it and replace it so we start an office collection to purchase the new coffee urn.
Grumble grumble.
Btw, perhaps we should mention that the entire office is being relocated to the empty lot across the street sometime in June.
One of my all time favorite movies was on AMC yesterday. Yup, Fight Club. I was sad to remember the scene where Tyler blows his brains out to kill Tyler. That's not how the movie should end. I wanted Tyler and Marla to whisk away to some happy island in the Carri bean and be happy together for the rest of their lives while running a blog documenting the economic hanky panky of the surreal world.
Also, AMC cut off the entire ending of the movie with all the Bank buildings blowing up. That changed the message of the movie from one in which Tyler succeeds in bringing down the entire system to one in which he pathetically ends a failure with a big hole in his head. Interesting how propaganda works like that.
Life is not fair, I tells yah.
-MB
'You told us you'd say that'
They seriously chopped the end? Woah. Damn shame - that's the best song the Pixies ever put out. Arguably.
Not to mention the censorship.
ALERT!
BUY THIS STOCK:
EFFING
Really going up!
ucvhost is a leading web site hosting service provider that is known to provide reliable and affordable hosting packages to customers. The company believes in providing absolute and superior control to the customer as well as complete security and flexibility through its many packages. cheap vps Moreover, the company provides technical support as well as customer service 24x7, in order to enable its customers to easily upgrade their software, install it or even solve their problems. ucvhost offers the following different packages to its customers.
social networking website development