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Reality Sets In: Philly Fed Revises December Business Conditions Down To 20.8 From 24.3

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Unfortunately, the Ministry of Disinformation and Data Revision will not be able to blame the latest major economic data point revision on dyslexia. After as we previously noted, the Chicago PMI was revised lower from 68.6 to 66.8 just three short days ago, today that other standout number, the Philly Fed, which had originally printed at the better than expected level of 24.3, has just been revised much lower to 20.8. Since this number means the Philly Fed actually declined from the November print of 22.5, one can see why even the Chinese are seeing their jaws drop at the ceaseless "adjustment" of what has now become an unrepentantly upwardly economic data stream. Specifically, the December Employment Index has been lowered to 4.3 from 5.1, the December New Orders Index has swooned to 10.6 from 14.6, the December Current Inventories was lowered from -2 to -5.9, the Current Number of Employees dropped from 5.1 to 4.3, and the Current Average Employee Workweek contracted from 19.3 to 16.8. The silver lining: the December Prices Paid Index to 47.9 from 51.2. Also, virtually all the future indices improved. Then again, as today's PPI indicated, and as surging commodity costs validate, nobody doubts the margin collapse any longer. We can't wait to find out just how many more of the melt up inducing December economic indicators will continue to be revised lower (even as the BLS continues to backward revise jobless numbers higher).

 

 

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Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:14 | 872923 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Year-End bonuses for the PD's don't get calculated for another 12 months... they can let it all hang out now.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:38 | 872996 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. Bribe paid. 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:14 | 872924 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

And yet the DOW is only down 26 points.

That's because QE is all that matters......until even that doesn't matter anymore.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:18 | 872937 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Bingo...+112 ($Billion)

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:22 | 872956 Misean
Misean's picture

Bah, unlike Weimar and it's wheelbarrows, we have a new technology called bandwidth...

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:31 | 872982 asteroids
asteroids's picture

In the 70's when I was a teenageer you wore your hair long, never trusted anyone over 30, and NEVER trusted the government. Now I understand why.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:39 | 873001 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Lol. "You want to know the real truth? The real honest truth is we've been lying to you all along!"

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:07 | 873092 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I WANT SOME BLUE PILLS TO!!

all I get is that Ritalin crap...

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:18 | 873338 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

May I remind everyone that any reading above zero indicates economic expansion. 20.8 is definitely above zero out here in the real world. In your world, I'm not so sure though.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:20 | 873345 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

May I remind everyone that any reading above zero indicates economic expansion. 20.8 is definitely above zero out here in the real world. In your world, I'm not so sure though.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:15 | 872927 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Tyler, are you sure?  I didn't see this on CNBC.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:22 | 872957 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

*whoosh*

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:25 | 872965 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

+1 LOL Yup, one of those days. haha

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:40 | 873005 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

What I love about these "press releases" is that they present the data separately (downloadable) but they helpfully explain to us that it doesn't amount to a hill of (increasingly more expensive) beans.

Here, I've complied some data for you over there but don't worry because it means nothing. This is advertising at it's best.

Here is a wonderfully delicious McSlop burger. You know you love it and your family loves it and everyone will love and care about you if you go to McBerger and purchase the McSlop with kilo of fries and a keg of Coke.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:50 | 873036 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

So true CD... sad and true.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:21 | 872952 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

They will blame it on a guy who has the flu with a fever not dyslexia.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:24 | 872960 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Jeez - they have no shame about it.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:25 | 872961 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And the Blow Horn [CNBC] says nothing about the Ministry of Truth revisions, of course, and instead focuses on criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers swarming around government employees responsible for picking a criminal syndicate Wall Street bank to unload toxic AIG shares upon the public.

ATTN COMCAST:  value destruction that can be counted by each minute that these propagandist continue to broadcast an enormous cloud of nothingness.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:26 | 872970 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh, so you're their remaining viewer.

Even informercials are less biased than CNBC.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:57 | 873053 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Bloomberg or MSNBC (4 the giggles)

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:41 | 873010 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They did mention it, but if you blinked you missed it. They were distracting you with a cleavage shot

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:52 | 873040 Cdad
Cdad's picture

No...not cleavage...but rather M. Haines important probing questions to the CEO of a soda fountain company about whether or not his son might overfill a bottle causing it to blow up...and whether or not the product was safe...and I kid you not.

It is literally fascinating...this train wreck of a network.  I cannot get enough of it while simultaneously following the actual news here on ZH.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:25 | 872964 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Where's Harry? Figured he'd be on here, telling everyone how great these #'s are...

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:26 | 872969 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

People are still using the government's statistics? 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:27 | 872975 Misean
Misean's picture

My models require them...

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:37 | 872995 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

So, what good are the models? 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:00 | 873066 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

I prefer the Brazilian models- their numbers are fuller and much more expressive. :)

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:47 | 873250 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

That's a nice model. Too bad the cash flow and returns on investment are wayyy negative; but the Chinese know that about U.S. bonds and dollar notes.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:39 | 873003 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

And what model would that be, BTFD?   :P

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:29 | 872978 Miramanee
Miramanee's picture

But the lies will continue. They MUST continue:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZDKZZp0YUI

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:34 | 872990 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Market moves up 113 on jobs number...revisions down 25   I guess Brian is doing a most excellent    job....

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:40 | 873006 iinthesky
iinthesky's picture

Don't know how many of you have already seen and read this...This one doesnt pull any punches. Tiny Tim basically says.. the US corporation is insolvent and absolutely WILL default without raising the debt ceiling (which of course they will do). Get ready to pay $50 for a pound of turkey coldcuts.

http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/letter.aspx

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:45 | 873024 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'TOGETHER WE THRIVE'! I dont know who Obama is talking about exactly, central bankster criminals, US political elite scumbags, and communists of the world I guess.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 14:58 | 873655 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

Communists didn't give $20,000,000,000,000 to the banker-gangsters.

Those who kill for their 'free' markets did.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:37 | 873212 William Wics
William Wics's picture

After the context, Geithner's letter opens with the phrase: "Never in our history has Congress failed to increase the debt limit when necessary."

It leads one to wonder... What, precisely, does the debt limit limit?

How cool would it be if whenever I exceeded the speed limit, all I had to do was... increase the speed limit. I could go as fast as I wanted.

I think the only way to raise the debt limit should be by national referendum. I know, we have national referendums every couple of years, but the choices tend to be poor. Damn. We're skrewed.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:41 | 873007 umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

Declined, revised lower, swooned, dropped, contracted...Tyler, have you worn out your thesaurus yet?

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:48 | 873019 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pretty damn bad when the Chicom's are looking at the US fraud and blushing at the level of corruption!!

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:44 | 873020 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The proof that "there is no market" is that even multiple very significant revisions don't re-equilibrate the indices. 

Spoon boy: Do not try and analyze the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. 
Neo: What truth? 
Spoon boy: There is no market. 
Neo: There is no market? 
Spoon boy: Then you'll see, that it is not the market that moves, it is only The Bernank

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:49 | 873032 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Is that green I see?  Why yes it is.  BUY THE FUCKING DIP!

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:50 | 873037 Misean
Misean's picture

There ain't been a dip in a while.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:52 | 873039 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

HFT + QE(n+1) + BTFD = DOW ((n+1),000,000) - PHILLYFEDREV (n)

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:54 | 873045 Miramanee
Miramanee's picture

The BLS. Can we PLEASE come up with an acronym that more honestly reflects what the BLS really does?! As for jobs:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMq8Ert1ss0

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:55 | 873048 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

If a public company made these type and number of revisions to its 10Qs like this, they'd be impaled by the SEC and run out of town on pink sheets

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:28 | 873185 molecool
molecool's picture

You are kidding, right?

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:39 | 873401 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If a public company made these type and number of revisions to its 10Qs like this, they'd be impaled by the SEC and run out of town on pink sheets

 

What does the SEC do and where is it?

Is it a vestigial organ?

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:58 | 873058 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

What was Harry saying about ZH readers and their unfounded pessimism in the economic recovery again?

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:01 | 873069 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

"....anything else..."

"yes. could you supersize that mcSlop phillyfed and add a bullish mcDip, please?"

"thank you. you're total will be 13.9 mcSlop foodstamps. pay at the window."

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:30 | 873193 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

gross.  get those teeth cleaned or cover 'em up ..... that's nasty!!

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:03 | 873076 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Things suck. Now inflation is showing up. What's not to like?

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:32 | 873203 Fortunes Favor
Fortunes Favor's picture

No one believed the Dec. numbers and that is why the mkts melted up. Bad economic news equals higher equity and commodity prices. The mkts rallied Dec. in advance of the poor numbers coming in Jan. revised or not. The POMO story ZeroH has covered so well rules the day. As long as economic numbers are bad or revised down the longer POMOs will continue. Expect Precious Metals to make new highs shortly @ http://rosenthalcapital.com/blog/

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:54 | 873264 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

But we're creating jobs across the land! We should hang a mission accomplished banner over the Fed, just like Dubya did declaring victory in Iraq. This doesn't change anything.
QE Forever

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:37 | 873395 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

nobody expects the filly fed!!

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