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Realpoint October CMBS Update: $32.6 Billion In October Delinquencies (504% YoY Increase), Forecasts $65 Billion By June 2010

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The October delinquent loan balance of $32.55 billion is a 504% increase from the $5.39 in October 2008. Additionally, RealPoint presents a scenario in which the delinquencies in June 2010 would hit $65 billion (8.3% total delinquency rate): a doubling from the most recent level and unprecedented pain for any form of CRE exposure.

In October 2009, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased slightly to $32.55 billion from $31.73 billion a month prior. Such delinquent unpaid balance is up an astounding 504% from one-year ago (when only $5.39 billion of delinquent balance was reported for October 2008), and is now over 14 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. An increase in four of five delinquent loan categories was noted in September, with a decline experienced in the 60-day bucket. Despite such decline, the distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 23rd straight month – up by $2.36 billion (12%) from the previous month and over $18.77 billion (572%) in the past year (up from only $3.283 billion in October 2008).

Overall, following the correction of the GGP-sponsored loans in July and the average growth month-over-month, we now expect the delinquent unpaid CMBS balance to continue along its current trend and grow between $40 and $50 billion before the end of 2009 / first quarter of 2010. Based upon an updated trend analysis, we now project the delinquency percentage to grow between 5% and 6% through the first quarter of 2010 (potentially approaching and surpassing 7-8% under more heavily stressed scenarios through the mid-2010). This outlook is mostly due to the reporting of several large loans from recent vintage transactions that continue to show signs of stress and default, along with continued balloon maturity defaults from more seasoned transactions. In addition, while we maintain our negative outlook for both the retail and hotel sectors for the remainder of 2009 and into 2010, we are closely monitoring the negative trends surrounding several large struggling multifamily loans that have near-term default risk, and the lack of steady new issuance to offset the continued increases in delinquent unpaid balance.

In addition to this growth scenario, if we add-in the potential default of two very large Realpoint High Risk Loans under review (namely the now specially-serviced $3 billion Peter Cooper Village / Stuyvesant Town loan spread through multiple CMBS deals via a pari passu structure, and the specially-serviced $4.1 billion Extended Stay Hotel loan in the WBC07ESH pool), the delinquent unpaid balance would top $46 billion and reflect a delinquency percentage over 5.7% by December 2009. Carried through mid-2010, the delinquent unpaid balance would top $65 billion and reflect a delinquency percentage over 8.3% by June 2010.


Full RealPoint report

 

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Mon, 11/30/2009 - 23:33 | 147176 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

whoa.

Mon, 11/30/2009 - 23:44 | 147182 Quang M
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Taxpayers will absord all the delinquency and there is a need to Commercial modification program for 2010.....from the Government.....

Mon, 11/30/2009 - 23:45 | 147183 10044
10044's picture

change we can all believe in...

Mon, 11/30/2009 - 23:56 | 147195 msorense
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That must be why IYR was on a tear today.  Oh and lower Black Friday sales compared to last year.  Can you say RECOVERY?

Tue, 12/01/2009 - 00:00 | 147197 deadhead
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deleted

Tue, 12/01/2009 - 00:06 | 147208 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Pretty graph. I like it when there is a significant amount of shadow on the bars making them look 3 dimensional. Pretty.

Tue, 12/01/2009 - 01:43 | 147296 Mark Beck
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Who has the largest CMBS exposure? Last time I checked, it was Morgan Stanley, State Street, Citi and B of A?

Thanks.

Mark Beck

Tue, 12/01/2009 - 07:23 | 147457 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

No wonder SRS continues to tank.

Tue, 12/01/2009 - 09:34 | 147490 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This is why investing in an environment of intervention and manipulation is impossible and trading counterintuitive.

Tue, 12/01/2009 - 09:37 | 147493 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This is why investing in an environment of intervention (read manipulation) is impossible and trading counterintuitive.

Tue, 12/01/2009 - 11:24 | 147611 Jim B
Jim B's picture

I just hope AIG has a part of this action, backing the loans that  is.........

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