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The Recovery Is Here
Just don't tell that to delinquent loans: now at 9.24% of all loans.
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That CRE time bomb fuse is getting awfully short
I don't know if it's any shorter than the fuse on the municipal bankrupty bomb. Thousands of towns, cities, and states are being artificially kept afloat by Federal grants right now. Those aren't permanent. Municipal implosion from overspending, corruption, and insane benefits packages could blow first.
well now, THERE goes the 'taxbase' shot to hell, and THEN the city employees, jobless, the county employees, too, and of course the State employees - time soon enough anyway, to clear house, 're-set' totally - as the NEW PARADIGM the new Social Construction sets in - in reality, in concept, in perception, as to just what services the Public Service need really do?
For instance, Vallejo, California, now in 'Bankrupcy' the Police force won big, so, really they PROVED that 'public safety' is a necessary, even the FireMen did pretty good, the library hours reverted back to normal - a Public Service of Value -
Yes the time of troubles, for some, is the time of necessary destruction, Creative Destruction - it is all good
these are resi
Yeah, but look at that second derivative! Woo-HOO!
WSJ reports that the 17th derivative shows definite signs of improvement...
Does the SA mean seasonally adjusted? If so can someone explain why % of total delinquent loans would need to be seasonally adjusted?
ha ha ha ha very good
Over 90% ok, bullish!
Not only is this bullish, but great news for the lenders because they will now be able to "justify" having higher interest rates in the future thereby making even more money!!!!
Buy Buy Buy...Booya
"Buy Buy Buy"
My man!
yes, the banks, their basic business, WELL that really hasn't been very good these days, despite renewed liquidity...watch Wells Fargo carefully, it seems that the OTHER banks are more and more chary of touching their interbank transactions, even debit card customers - serious stuff - Wells Fargo is just about 'locked-out' frozen looks like MUCH MUCH worse than any released numbers from either that bank, nor Government sources who'd hide those numbers anyway to prevent a depositors panic - phase two the banking crisis
Anybody think Copper's rally may be close to done here? Gone from 126 to 296. Now 273. I suspect China has already done the majority of its stockpiling at lower prices.
China has learned the word 'cantango' its apparently a new thing to them, New Capitalists, with a Fascist touch of government controls, Italy 1920-1930 era
They not paying their loans so they can buy AIG stock! BUY BUY BUY
To the moon, baby
I stumbled across this today - great article:
http://www.euromoney.com/Article/2266879/Category/1/ChannelPage/0/Risky-business-Is-securities-restructuring-the-answer-to-problem-portfolios.html
"Our view is that the securitization sector went through a period of wild excess but it somewhere harbours the solution to the problems we are now seeing," says Slendebroek. "It seems possible that repackaging will be a big part of the solution. However, if you repackage a portfolio of loans that consists of people who are not going to pay their debts – they still won’t pay!"
One of my personal "watershed" moments: the first time I read a description of the MBS CDO squared tranche/ratings process.
You've got to love GS
"It is an opportunity that has not been missed by Goldman Sachs. The US firm has been the market leader in the restructuring of structured investment vehicles (see EuromoneyJuly 2009). It has sold various re-remics and, by all accounts, is also marketing a synthetic credit portfolio solution."
From The Atlantic:
"Only when interest rates on MBSs drop low enough, along with the price of protection on MBSs, will protection buyers enter CDS contracts. So when protection buyers think that interest rates on MBSs are too low to reflect the actual probability of default, their desire to profit from this will spur the issuance of synthetic MBSs, thereby diverting cash from the mortgage market and into either Treasuries or other areas of the capital markets"
re-remics -> re-gimmicks
Great idea!
Assuming the gov't will bail out whichever Ivy league staffed company sold the CDS.
Would that have been the Super Superior? lol
JPM thought it was just an idea, the rest of the Banksters ramped it to the MAX.
First... We want the $50 BILLION in Cash the Federal Government slipped Kalifornia in the middle
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Wow, NED'S site is improving!
...Now if he can just settle on a theme or a niche, as opposed to trying to be the Drudge of finance, he might actually end up with a site worth looking at!
Don't hold your breath though.
Canada, how very very properly suited-up professional-wise its all bullshit in that article from word one -
there really is some advantage in the BlogSphere where the writer of an article is IMMEDIATELY challenged, mud dirty, the pomp and wigs thing blown away....
unchallenged news-media articles such as THAT are 'obsolete' authoritarian artifacts of the 19th and 20th century way of controlling the masses thru intermediaries,
"coordinated media" in the manner of Goebels 1930's Germany Ministry of Propaganda - how up-front he was about it, too ! or PRAVDA truth, too, or the Wall Street Journal, all
Perhaps it's time for "single payer" mortgage plan.
Reality doesn't matter. Delinquencies do not matter. Shitty CAT numbers do not matter. Price Action matters to this market. Being beyond normalized forward P/E ratios until the end of 2010 based on aggressive growth number (how?) is the second thing that matters. Close your eyes and buy. And please dismiss any logic.
well, i think that 21 August 2009 Friday shall indicate that 'critical mass' has been achieved - all the suckers out there willing to buy at THESE price levels are gone, now its a cry of FIRE and the rush to the EXIT of which THERE IS NONE, really - they are ALL bag holders, why EVEN, this time GS just might be left, the last man standing ha ha ha ha ha ha ha suckers, if you haven't yet sold - its gonna be just like that, not with a wimper, but a BANG, poof all gone!
That chart looks awfully bullish to me...
me too, bullish for shorting, puts, and just plain 'being in cash' (for a few days)
more government debt + low money velocity + deleveraging consumer + mark-to-market suspension + sustained/rising unemployment + open market operations + compliant financial media + leaderless political situation = no one knows what the fuck is going to happen and anyone who says they do is selling something. all i know is that very few alive today have experienced true deflation and none have ever seen a consumer credit destruction recession. we have no idea what moving any one lever will do in this environment much less fiddling with all fifty at once. black swan territory folks, and it likely won't be the lollipop/ponies/rainbows type.
Martial Law.
Roasting marshmellows over an open fire in a trash can next to a rail car.
Sleeping under the stars!
I'm going to the Big Rock Candy Mountains.
But lets focus on the average...it's only 4.97%. I feel better already.
Does SA stand for seasonally adjusted? Why would this need to be seasonally adjusted? Would the real number be better or worse?
I think seasonally adjusted calculations are all out of whack these days. Or I should say I suspect it.
Yes,
Buy the bullet load the shell into the chamber. Now Spin baby, Spin it...Quick its the FED turn off the lights. We have no other options than to all Tango blindly until the morning comes. Let us See who walks out into the light? Tea anyone?
Ummm....
Doesn't this mean that the entire financial system is beyond a shadow of a doubt in bankruptcy again?
No, they have government printing presses behind them and they just raised a bunch of fresh capital, which they can blow through.
I read somewhere that if delinquencies reached 6% then basically all of the equity in most banks would be wiped... and that's even without mark to market.
You forgot the ace in the hole here: we can just debase the currency. Look back in history and find me a case when it hasn't worked!
Debasing the currency will be like rubbing salt into the wounds. Especially so considering the country is highly depandant on the car and the economy is highly depandent on consumer spending.
Hard to convey sarcasm over the internets...debasement has indeed never led to any positive outcome.
I got your sarcasm. I was just sounding off.
yea
U guys are so sweet... XD
We cannot unerestimate the power of denial.
From Karl Denninger...
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1352-We-Need-RTC-II-NOW.html
"
This is an absolute outrage. How in the hell does a bank get to the point where its construction loans have a real markdown of 67% from par (!), its commercial property loans have a write-down of more than 30% from par, home equity is impaired by 21% and other mortgage loans are impaired by 18%, or 37% on a blended basis, radically exceeding the bank's capitalization, and yet this institution was not seized MONTHS AGO.
Remember, according to The FDIC, Colonial did not (yet) have a negative Tier Capital Ratio, unlike Guaranty and Corus, both of which do! The carnage there has to be at least as bad.
I have been repeatedly asked for hard proof that banks are intentionally misrepresenting asset quality. I have repeatedly pointed to the loss figures from the FDIC, which is hard proof that this has been going on.
"
Pete
"FDIC assumes 80% of losses between $0.0 and $5.0bn"
"FDIC assumes 95% of losses between $5.0bn and $14.3bn"
I'd gladly have paid a quarter to be a fly on the wall during those negotiations.
Oh no, someone get the giant tube of anusol over here...
yes, well, the 'problem' here is preventing a run on the bank liquidity squeeze - PANIC fear...and it is NECESSARY with Government and Business collusion to keep a lid on that, for YOU SEE i hope that money 'in the bank' on deposit is a necessary legal civil law fiction that for the moment does have its uses -
i am quite sure EVERYONE of the depositors will be made whole immediately,
but the so-called assets, well this is indeed a problem, HENCE why the 'mark to market' thing was quietly dropped...
hell if you were China, and thought that the dollar was worth nothing, or at least 'worth-less' you might 'yank' the $2.2 trillion - fortunately they China, the Bank of China knows the real meaning of 'asset value' 'money' and 'real physical economy' thanks to Karl Marx, and a century of the University of Moscow Economists trained in dialectic materialism....
You apparently 'believe' that banks have money, assets, and all that - NOPE just digital notations debit/credit and Fed Wire required reporting - that is all - IT IS ALL TINSEL TOWN ALWAYS HAS BEEN ALWAYS WILL BE -
grow up REALITY is a 'construct of the group mind' here, and things financial ARE being solved,
don't be part of the problem, buy GOLD if it makes you feel good, or have a truck dump 25,000 lbs of spot copper on your front lawn
Please DO PANIC, should make me lots of money these COMING post 21 August 'trading days'
Awww shucks, this is just the new normal. At least we now know that we will be able to find growth in the economy.
Next off the Hearst Castle in San Simeon state park, I am sure some Russian billionaire would pay well over 5 billlion.
The castle was quietly sold by the trust to Putin two years ago.
You might say that's Putin your money where your mouth is.
no, he would be buying physical producing plant, Russians have hundreds of years of melancoly in their soul -
however, sex for sale in American is a another thing, say for instance "Anastasia" look it up solid income, solid business base, American dollars,
but San Simeon wouldn't even be on the Russian businessmans list for a short sale,
Whereas, the Japanese, in their defeated soul found the Golf Course at Pebble Beach a fine $2 billion dollar Sumo recovery suitable to the soul of the loser, sold back at less than $1 billion after the 1990 Japanese crash...i suppose the Principals involved did the right thing, and committed ritual suicide with a Proper Samuri sword purchased back in the post occupied Japan 1950's from some American Antiquities dealer
Anyone know Op-Ex Max pain for RUT, SPX or NDX? They are going to gun the topside I hear.
According to KD over at Denninger, the 9.24 number does not include loans that are in the foreclosure process. The actual delinquency rate is more like 13.16%. Wow-zuh.
bad news is just another opportunity for the robots to apply the atomic 'nut dust' grip.
Well.. the slope does decrease at the top there... 2nd derivative and all...
Amazing what trillions in stimulus can do (briefly).
I think it is...ummm..."better than expected"
no worries, green shoots.
May be somebody can shed more light on the corelation between delinquency rate and the moral fabric of society. May be not all delinquents are suffering from loss of income. May be a certain percentage of them are thinking"well,we supported those banks with our taxes,so we might as well take our share from them". After all,what is 20k or 30 or 50k compared to a 100 mil bonus achieved with liquidity provided with tax payers money?
I'm sending that chart to failblog.org
we're see some pickup
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
JNK back into the red again today? Hm, interesting...
Nope, but HYG is (JNK closed a tiny bit green).