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Recreating Mercantilism In Europe, Europe's Deflationary Torture, And The L-Shaped Recession

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is outstanding in his expose on Europe's increasingly more evident deflationist cul-de-sac, and the ever more obvious L-shaped "recovery" facing Europe. While it has taken fans of the euro currency a mere two short months to not just diametrically change their exposure vis-a-vis the "long" currency of choice, but to allow speculators to build record euro short positions, the question of how America (and China by virtue of its dollar peg) will deal with euro currency that has no choice but to go lower, becomes an increasingly thorny issue. And to further confound deficit worries, recent overtures by the Fed in the form a discount rate hike make it all too obvious that the bond market will likely soon demand a much more substantial "pound of flesh" to fund America's burgeoning deficit. In this context, the threat of increasing rates, coupled with a euro that could reach $1.25 according to Morgan Stanley, and hit a low of $1.10 according to Albert Edwards, makes the policy prospects before the Federal Reserve so much more daunting.

In the fiat world, deficit/surplus adjustments can only take place in the FX arena, and via domestic Treasury rates in those cases where pegs or monetary unions makes isolating specific countries impossible. Europe's weakness, as is currently well acknowledged by everyone, is that one currency's exchange rate somehow represents a gamut of relatively disjointed countries, each with unique economic profiles, cultural risks, and societal pressures. To be sure, in the gold standard world, things were simpler to say the least. From Evans-Pritchard:

EMU is slowly suffocating boom-bust states trapped in debt deflation, acting
in the same perverse and destructive fashion as the Gold Standard in the
1930s.

Gold rules were simple: surplus states loosened, deficit states tightened.
This preserved equilibrium. World War One shattered the system. The US was
not ready to take the guiding role from Britain.

The dollar was undervalued in the 1920s. America ran vast surpluses, like
China today. So did France, which re-pegged too low. Both drained the
world's bullion. Yet neither loosened: the Fed because Chicago
liquidationists ran amok; the Banque de France because its post-War brush
with hyperinflation was still fresh.

Adjustment fell entirely on deficit states such as Britain. They had to
tighten into the downturn, feeding debt deflation. Global demand imploded on
itself until the entire system collapsed. In the end, the US and France were
victims of their obduracy, but that was not clear in 1930, or 1931, except
to Keynes.

We have recently learned that Central Bank obfuscation and outright fraud was a prevalent phenomenon precisely in those years when gold flows were supposed to be representative of economic relative strength. While we may wonder just how much deception Montagu Norman's and the New York Fed's current crop of comparable central bankers may be engaging in, it is no secret that in the 1930's central bankers, and gold, were the focal points of economic data manipulation. Which, among other reasons, is precisely the reason for elimination of the gold standard and letting floating currencies take the place of gold flows.

Yet little did the Bretton-Woods participants know that in 50 years Europe would attempt to take America head on, and institute not only a flawed experiment in cultural homogeneity, but one in which monetary independence would be abandoned, leaving fiscal instruments as the only viable way to control economic inefficiencies. The recent disclosures about the PIIGS sorry state has only crystallized how in today's fiat world, fiscal policy can not only be masked to misrepresent the true state of affairs (thank you Goldman Sachs deficit-masking swaps), but is powerless to control creeping simple Ricardian imbalances. The various deficit and surplus realities within distinct Europe regions are now seen as comparable to those between the West/US (deficit) and China (surplus). Indeed, one must have been living in a cave not to be aware of the amount of US bickering over the alleged Chinese currency manipulation, in which Americans demand that China let the renminbi inflate. So what should a much smaller Europe do when its very foundation prevents comparable FX adjustment (the alternative, of course, is simple - abolish the euro, yet doing so would be an admission of defeat for the premise of European integration, and a slap in the face of all those who naively believed that the consolidated European economy can compete with the US). As Evans-Pritchard points out:

This is the story of Euroland. The North is in surplus, the South in deficit.
Germany's current account surplus was 6.4pc of GDP in 2008, Holland's 7.5pc.
Club Med deficits topped 14pc for Greece, and 10pc for Iberia. The gap has
narrowed since but remains structural.

This is an intra-EMU version of China's surplus with the West. But at least
China is doing something about it with a fiscal blitz and 30pc growth in the
money supply.

Germany has banned budget deficits, implying a fiscal squeeze next year. IG
Metall has agreed to a pay freeze, undercutting Spanish and Italian unions
yet again. How can Club Med close a 30pc gap in unit labour costs against
deflating Germany?

Brussels is enforcing an EU-version of Pierre Laval's deflation decrees in
1935, the policy that tipped France's Third Republic over the edge. It has
ordered Greece to cut the deficit by 10pc of GDP in three years or face the
whip under Article 126.9. Spain must squeeze 8pc. France next?

Paradoxically, a toothless ECB, long deaf to the very same deflationist threats it now has no choice but to deal with, has done nothing, and continues to do nothing, to address the spiraling deflation it now finds itself in.

The European Central Bank is letting deflation run its course. Business credit
is falling at a 2.3pc rate, while M3 money continues to contract. Frankfurt
says demand for loans has slackened, so this does not matter. We will find
out.

German growth fell to zero in the fourth quarter as state stimulus faded.
Italy turned negative again. Spain never left recession. This recovery has
`L-shaped' all over it.

The only reason why the European economy has not collapsed just yet is that unlike in the US, Europe has not been faced with the same multi-trillion mortgage overhang on the balance sheets of various semi- and fully-nationalized financial institutions, an overhang which is more representative of overall U.S. societal "wealth" than the stock market, and all other assets combined. Were the US to pursue the same deflationary policy of "inaction" as Europe, most of the bailed out banks would have long seen been shuttered or found themselves in need of yet another bail out, coupled with outright daily debt monetization. For as long as even the impression remains that the Fed can inflate its problems, it allows banks, with GAAP complicity, to mark assets to whatever valuations are desired, in the hope that one day book values and market values will match. It is our belief that this day will not come for many years, and possibly, should the Fed be forced the acknowledge the ever deeper hole the US economy finds itself in (absent premeditated debt monetization, but in light of reality this is still a remote possibility), ever. But until then extend and pretend is the name of the game, which is why we have long postulated that in G-7 meetings early in 2009 it was precisely the plan to delay the moment of reckoning for the euro, and allowing the dollar to depreciate in the meantime, thus taking the full initial deflationary brunt away from the United States. We wonder just what assurances were given back then to European politicians about the form of assistance that in one year, when it will have been all too obvious that Europe should have been devaluing the euro just as much if not more as the dollar, America would be "forced" to provide to Europe. We are confident that the IMF held a special place in guarantees given by Summers and Bernanke to his European colleagues. We are also confident that the announced (and half consummated) sale of a total of 400 tons of gold, and soon possibly much more, by the IMF is anything but a coincidence.

Yet where does that leave Europe for now?

Dr Krugman said EMU had lured Spain into a debt bubble and left the country
exposed to an "asymmetric shock" with no defence. "If Spain
had had its own currency, that currency might have appreciated during the
real estate boom, then depreciated when the boom was over. Since it didn't
and doesn't, however, Spain now seems doomed to suffer years of grinding
deflation and high unemployment." He wants higher inflation to rescue
eurozone deflators from their trap. So does the IMF, implicitly. But who in
Europe will or can take that decision?

Albert Edwards from Société Générale said governments should use their powers
over the exchange rate under Article 219 to force a change in policy. "The
politicians should take matters into their own hands and instruct the ECB to
drive the euro lower," he said.

That can happen only once France thinks the dangers of Laval policies outweigh
the dangers of defying Bundesbank orthodoxy. Until then EMU will be an
instrument of slow deflation torture.

We presented Edwards' most recent outlook a few days ago. The implication here is that not only will European politicians be soon forced to take the fight with central bankers to the next level (as will America eventually), should they wish to retain any chances of avoiding an early political grave, but very soon have no choice but to call in whatever promises and guarantees were given by the United States in those bleak days in early 2009, when the only option was to kill the dollar in the prevention of an all out financial cataclysm. One thing is certain - Greece is just the beginning.

 

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Sun, 02/21/2010 - 18:27 | 239487 RobotTrader
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Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:49 | 239547 Anonymous
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Going up in tapering volume, the new normal.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 18:30 | 239490 godfader
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Where are the EUR bulls who were screamign 2.00 price targets not too long ago? I'll go long the EUR when Peter Schiff declares on CNBC that this is more than a temporary Dollar rally and he foresees further EUR weakness. THAT'S my buy signal. Until then... short the EUR, it's a PIIG.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 18:32 | 239493 Gunther
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How do weaker currency and deflation go together?

 

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 18:40 | 239501 bugs_
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MS 1.25

Albert Edwards 1.10

Andy 1.00

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 18:53 | 239507 asdf
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mauldin also sees parity in his latest newsletter

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 18:55 | 239508 godfader
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Every downtick in the EUR is met by applause from the Palais de l'Élysée and a "Qui qui" can be heard from Sarkozy's office.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:00 | 239511 THE DORK OF CORK
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Airbus will kill Boeing when / if it goes 1 for 1.

The people of Toulouse will be singing in the streets

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:07 | 239726 Stranger
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They won't be singing that their fuel costs 50% more. They will be striking.

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 07:42 | 240035 THE DORK OF CORK
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Point taken Stranger but in a zero growth world the elimination of your competition is the only game in town.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:01 | 239513 anarkst
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Regardless of the outcome, it is only money you will be left with.  Until people begin to seriously consider this abstraction and how it is used to impoverish the vast majority, only the degree of appropriation will change, much like the tide.

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 02:29 | 239515 godfader
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All this political pressure on the ECB will run into a wall once it becomes clear Axel "The Ax" Weber becomes next chairman. The guy has brass balls and will lead the EUR into a deflationary nightmare that will dwarf anything Japan has seen. Once Axel is done Europe will be largely de-industrialized.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:21 | 239529 Anonymous
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I thought European manufacturers just charge what they can in separate markets and the relative value of the currencies means nothing. That's why German cars are so inexpensive in the USA compared to the rest of the world but a 1 dollar Euro is not going to make BMWs less expensive. So why would an A380 cost less?

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 21:16 | 239600 Anonymous
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There's a fairly vigorous secondary market in airliners, isn't there?

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:29 | 239534 Anonymous
Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:32 | 239538 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Can you not see the forest for the trees? We have a global indigenous country devaluation race occuring with all the bells and whistles... short euro while long dollar then reverse trade or hedge. Rinse and repeat many several times as gold laughs step-stairing higher. Trust no one during these strange days!

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 20:21 | 239565 Anonymous
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Larouche has been pounding the table about Spain and Banco Santander being set to blow. He seems to be one of few voices warning about Spain.

http://www.larouchepac.com/lpactv?nid=13559

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 22:46 | 239695 Bill DeBurgh
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Larouche was pounding the table about the real estate bubble as far back as 2003.

Then again, he's just a wing nut, right?

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:21 | 239745 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

1) The frickin' Economist was rapping the table about the housing bubble back in 2003. It didn't take exceptional insight to notice it, even if many people didn't notice it anyway.

2) Larouche spreads his nut over both wings, if I recall.

3) Larouche claims that Queen Elisabeth is the secret mistress of world finance and politics. If people tend to ignore him as a lunatic then he has only himself to blame.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 20:22 | 239566 DavidC
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Why is deflation considered the evil of evils and why is inflation considered to be the state we should always be in?

From 1800 to 1912 in the US the overall average inflation rate was -0.35%. It didn't stop growth or technological advancement in the US.

Inflation suits Central banks with a debt based system.

Deflate.

DavidC

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 21:13 | 239597 aus_punter
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if you can't understand the ramifications of deflation take a look at Japan

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 22:14 | 239664 ThreeTrees
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If you can't understand the ramifications of government policy in fighting deflation take a look at Austrian economics.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 21:48 | 239630 Anonymous
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> From 1800 to 1912 in the US the overall average inflation rate was -0.35%

That 112-year average conceals major inflationary and deflationary swings, and the enormous average growth in GDP over that time conceals depressions and big financial panics. That doesn't in itself show that deflation is a bad thing, but it's certainly the case that plenty of plenty of people were very upset about it at the time: see the Free Silver movement in particular. (And note that the banking interests were lined up behind the gold standard.)

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 06:38 | 240008 jeff montanye
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not to mention two, largely forgotten, presidential assassinations.

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 13:13 | 240321 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And a few serious wars, some better remembered than others.

Side note 1: even Victorian Britain's age of peace didn't feel like Happy Days at the time. Victoria's reign kicked off with a Tiananmen-style massacre of demonstrators, and for much of the time people were braced for a big war, often with the US.

Side note 2: in some ways the bimetallism controversy looks a bit more like the current Eurozone crisis than the currency situation in the present-day US. It's not as if the Federal government was doling out transfer payments to ease the pain of deflation-stricken farm regions.

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 11:52 | 240180 Manbarepig
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The problem is (and I have to give credit to another commenter on this site) is that the things you don't care about get cheaper, but the things you do care about get more expensive.

iPods get cheaper as it is. In a deflationary environemnt, you'd expect them to get cheaper faster.

Housing (or any major, physical asset) gets more expensive if you own them since the debt needed for the average person to afford them gets pricier as the value of the asset goes down. See today's housing market and the numerous underwater mortgages and short sales.

So deflation works out great, if you dont own anything meaningful.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 21:29 | 239618 no cnbc cretin
no cnbc cretin's picture

L shape, duh! And never going back up. What pisses me off, is why American's think we'll come out of this. The usual stupid comment is, America always has been able to rebound - really? Sorry folks, things do not last forever.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 22:14 | 239659 Missing_Link
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But wait  ...  I thought if something happens a few times, that means it's a permanent pattern, and guaranteed to always happen that way forever into the future  ...?

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:14 | 239736 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture

Personally, I think a good case can be made that the whole Western world went into an "L" shaped recession back in the 70's (and that suited certain groups just fine), and everything since then has been only financial manipulations to cover it up.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 22:53 | 239699 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This is absolutely bullish EU for stocks, buy buy buy!!!

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:59 | 239804 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

TD -

Good post. You sound as if you've retreated a bit on earlier support for the gold standard and for strong money, am I right? (It's not as if Montagu Norman was a great advertisement for either.)

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 00:05 | 239815 Double down
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Awsome article

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 11:48 | 240175 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Thanks for taking a moment to reiterate exactly why a Gold standard was problematic, too often we get an "End the Fed!" "Hard Money!" cry without any meaningful evaluation of the alternative's shortcomings.

Sat, 04/17/2010 - 10:51 | 305597 Tom123456
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