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Red Alert?
My success ratio of calling short-term tops/bottoms in markets is about 1
in 4. Lousy. With that caveat I tell you I cut all my trading positions
this morning. I cut the long gold short dollar stuff. I took off a
bunch of equity high alpha stuff. I cut the syndicate stuff to as small
as possible. Why? Because all this ‘stuff” is getting to scary prices,
and it is happening too fast.
My concern is regarding the NFP numbers tomorrow. Things could change
almost regardless of the results. There are only three possible
outcomes. The numbers could be hot, cold or “just right” (consensus).
If there is no surprise I think I have a decent chance of getting back
into things over a few days without much opportunity cost.
If this number is hotter than expected watch out. It will turn the QE
debate in a different direction. How can Big Ben and his mates push a
dangerous monetary policy when there is evidence it is not needed? They can't, so QE will be delayed and that is not in the market.
If the data is cold and unemployment pushes up a notch or two and the
employment numbers are much worse than anticipated and it is clear we
headed into a 4Q breakeven GDP then I will be wrong. But not poorer. And
even in this scenario I could still be right.
If the number is cold tomorrow QE-2 becomes a certainty. But really that
has been the case for weeks now. Bernanke has made up his mind some
time ago on this. A soft payroll number would give him the cover he
wants/needs to get acceptance for the "pedal to the metal" monetary
approach. The stupidest most dangerous monetary policy decision in the
past 70 years is good for stocks? When does the reality set in that we
just set the ship of our own demise?
All the markets are correlated around strong equities and the "risk on"
trade. We have had that for the past six weeks. I am afraid that no
matter the result of the NFP we are going to into a risk off mode.
If that is the case I will be able to get back into my favorite trades at better levels.
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Bruce's momma didn't raise no fools. Take a vacation till tuesday.
Too many people looking to protect gains from september.
Too much actual good economic stuff happening.
Too many retails gone and gone.
Too many job postings on Monster.com
Too cheap mortgage money.
The market is going higher. With or without gold
I'd say NFP will come in as a slightly positve number, on the back of the ADP report (-39K), around +32,000. Can't make the private sector number crunchers look too good, right?
Estimates are for +60,000, so that should be bad enough for Bennie and the Inkjets to prime the press.
I am reading Ace Greenberg's book.
On fridays Bear Stearns sold everything in the red no matter what.They had guys come around to check your books to see if you were holding out on them.
You could buy the stock back the next week but it had to go if was in the red on friday.
Let it fall more before buying; it has a way to go. you get more gold, and then more upside.
I really don't think the NFP matters that much. All they do is wait till Monday and contravein whatever the NFP said with some offsetting dialogue or speech and the market is back to parity within 5 trading days. However it is nice that someone somewhere is FINALLY starting to treat unemployment like it is relevant and a real serious problem.
Hot, cold or just right, NFP numbers can be played just like the rest of the numbers, so the QE-2 yes or no argument is a waste of air. The sure bet is; which move will make the top 1% the most $$? They get the marbles, we all go home hungry and cold, same as it ever was.
Eventually gold and silver will prove to be prudent acquisitions but most investors won't have the balls to hold on when that horse starts bucking. The fact remains that markets take the fewest number of participants with them, pick your entry points carefully my friends or invest in something moret tangible.
Let me just say this...doing a Gem Show last weekend and in talking with others of late in the jewelry industry....the price of gold is just killing a $4B+ industry. If many of these business people did not have repair business they would be out on the streets, on the soup and unemployment lines, or selling apples.
The currency wars have begun, looks like we have learned nothing from history,I suspect it will only get worse..... thank goodness we have a Fed Resevre chairman with intimate knowledge of the Depression of the 1930s, he will surely save us (???)
Happy dip day! Down to yhe coin guy for a 10oz bar of silver.
That's why I called this a P.B.R. Stock market....
Not the beer:
P arabolic
B lowoff
R eversal
And it's going to come down harder than an intern in the Clinton years.
yes, and when it's finished; buy.
Damned Straight. Hyperinflation and equities as a combo is like getting free sex with the Dallas Cowby Cheerleaders;
ALL OF THEM.
If BS wants to push QE now it will be easy to make the BLS cold, as he has a massive storage of unaccounted unemployed laborers. Here is the thing, it is not that the precious metals, oil, and other natural resources are over bought, it is that somehow the bond market is still functioning (however manipulated). As long as Pimpco recycles Treasuries through the wash that begins with the Treserve, connects with offshore CIA hedge funds, uses Private Dealers and sovereign (said sovereign) nations along the way, then the prices will not move into percieved stratospheric conditions in the minds of the masses. Jack's lack of surprise at even $10k will be warranted. The correction will be just that, correct.
Taking money off of the table might be smart in the short term, as silver could easily test $20.92 (the top of its recent high of March '08). But we are in a new price range like it or not. Gold's move was an historic one. That hit may have moved it above $1250 for gold for good (for God's sake!). Put a floor under it. Silver is definitely going to trade above one Jackson bill from here on out. One jackson is really the new dollar bill. They will be passed around like hot cakes and honey buns. Put that in your g string and smoke it! I think that means oil will be above $76 from here out too.
This pullback can only last until the election. Interestingly it will make the Replubs look good, as it is the Fem Dems who have control (of what I am not sure). The Replubs look set to even the party, as the Fem Dembots only attempt at the spot light was the foreclosure crisis (Mortgagegate?) Once the Replublican'ts are fitted for their fedoras then things all over the world can get out of hand. But only until then. Until then look for a retracement of $21 even for silver, $76 for oil, $1270 for gold, and five to seven hundred points on the Dau by the election. Then the markets should really be having problems, another bad employment round, and a full blown mortgage crisis should usher in QE. It will be heralded by Congress. This group of paid treasonists will go all in. Congress and the Fed will be at their most vulnerable. Best case scenario: the dollar collapses. Worst case: a war. What is it good for?
Smoking G strings can not be a good thing for you.
I'm going to take my mortgage payment for this month, and buy silver on this little dip, figure i'll make up the late fee pretty easy.
Fuck it why not just take the next two payments and throw it at SI? Remember you state probably has a foreclosure stoppage bill on the docket.
Gold is drawing to much attention lately and the Feds are most annoyed. Hence forth, Scud attacks will be launched now and then to give the impression of very high risk and volatility is the norm. No such thing exists. Demand is there and growing at a alarming rate. Let them think were fooled. I put my order in for Silver today.
Dude, does the term "overbought" mean anything to you?
Things don't go straight up forever. Gold was outside the upper BB, and RSI14 was ridiculously overbought. MA support is way below here. This was a classic sell setup in a bull market.
Given gold's previous runups into similar technical territory, we could be facing a several-month countertrend consolidation period
I'm going long on pantyhose, chocolate, tobacco, whiskey and zippo lighters.
I hear there is already outstanding deals on blonde, eastern european sex slaves house keepers.
I knew one day it would come to arbitrage in whores. I just didn't know when.
Pantyhose? I thought only cross dressers and grannies wore those and I think they plan on death paneling as many grannies as they are indoctrinating school boys!
"My success ratio of calling short-term tops/bottoms in markets is about 1 in 4. Lousy."
Actually, if I knew that someone definitely had a 1/4 chance of calling the market's direction correctly, I'd think, "Great, that gives me a 3/4 chance of knowing the true direction of the market -- it's the opposite of what that guy said!"
In that sense, being right 1/4 of the time isn't "lousy" at all; you'd be freakin' Nostradamus. Lousy is being right 1/2 of the time, which is just like flipping a coin.
Any new thoughts on GE Bruce?? (the monkey in the corner asked, before he cackled).
Also if you could peg the date on this future wave of inflation coming it would be nice.
Dead money....
Heh heh, Brucey, I can't let you get off that easy. You know I don't like 300% debt Bruce, but I am having a hard time understanding how a company with hidden probs on the balance sheet would be making major acquisitions. And frankly in today's world it's hard for me to imagine that accountant was suddenly enlightened on this stuff. And believe me, I usually defend the little guy on these things, but the "wide-eyed college boy accountant shocked by GE practices" shtick is even too thick for me. Anyway Brucey, let me know when you come up with that model for timing the inflation wave, ok???
Signed,
Bruce's disfavored red-haired cousin
....... god i love this website ........ best thing that's EVER happened to me for a wealth of education & knowledge. i do know about buying what you can afford, continue to accumulate, & yes, i do get JIM SINCLAIR's newsletter on my email.........he is super cool. I'm old enough to remember when the HUNT BROS cornered the silver market in 1980, but, at that time didn't have a clue as to what that meant.
WHY, OH WHY, DIDN'T MY PARENTS or GRANDPARENTS tell the younger generation about always having silver & gold ........ they did not tell me; how i wish i'd known this years ago.
I always feel sorry for him when they piss on Gold and the flood of pissed off Blue Hairs with AOL accounts pummel him with bad man emails
Watching a couple of my small cap names trade down big on no volume and no news, it's clear what we'll face in this market when big, bad news finally hits. There is no bid.
The selloffs in BLUD and EQIX in particular highlight there has been something artificial in the buying mechanism that had kept these stocks well above their intrinsic values. Well, yeah... big duh! But I do have a point...
Once reality hits on these stocks and expectations are taken down-- watch out. The experience so far is that stocks will go down much further than you the revisions imply. BLUD went down 20% on a downward revenue revision of 7% and an EPS revision of about 15%.
EQIX declined 33% on a revenue revision of 2% and a POSITIVE revision of EBITDA of 1%. In addition, those negative revisions at EQIX affected just about every company involved in the go-go cloud computing space. Poor CTXS lost 13%, and didn't do anything... except being assoicated with cloud computing. But look where the stock price HAD been.
BLUD indicated their problems were macro-related (hospital spending); and EQIX couldn't have announced the same-- otherwise their stock would have gone from $100 to $0. Just thinking here... what if these two whiffs are microcosms of even greater reduced guidance annoucements to come?
Chart: ES and ZB
On your mark...get set....
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es-and-zb_07.html
I dont think the nuclear button push on QE launch simply rests on tomorrows jobs number being hot, cold, or just right. They need fear and panic in the markets to mash the big red Q/E button, and fear and panic is whats in store for Oct.
Darn! I just loaded up on a bunch of gold stocks this past two weeks. With AUD at 98 and gold dipping would have been a nice buying time.
Finally -- a relief pull-back in gold. Been waiting for this!
Back up the truck.
Silver on the other hand, gotta buy regardless.
Updated FTSE weekly chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
I did the same thing with my investments -- a year ago. Since then, I've watched the madness unfold with Fed governors saying the craziest things in public statements while toeing the line for the bankers and pols in their market actions.
Laws and regulations don't matter anymore. No one can predict what will happen next, we can only try to prepare for a range of outcomes. Good luck to us all.
NFP hould come in well above expectations...positive for USD, negative for gold as QE expectations will diminish. Bubble phase just beginning...
Leo, what is a solar panel made of?
you've been calling for a better NFP for 6 months that I can remember
You are so full of it
Actually we're approaching one year as Leo was making this call back in Dec. of 09.
Lots of parabolas in periphery non BRIC emerging markets (price charts are starting to go straight up). If you take for example Thailand and use the ETF (THD) vs. the S&P500, with one year's daily data the pair has moved over 2.5 standard deviations away from the mean, in other words THD is 2.5 Standard deviations richer than average versus the SPY. That's getting very stretched. So expect a certain degree of mean reversion.
Ditto for quite a few others ...
.....i'm still learning, don't hold a candle to most on ZEROHEDGE....... honest question: so, should I buy some gold & silver today or do you think that it will go down a little more ? I do understand the endgame, but do not want to chase it right here. I have been accumulating over the past year & would love to buy more ......... Thank you to the dear people on ZEROHEDGE !
It doesn't matter much when you buy it, lynnybee. The small price retrenchments are less risk now than an hyperinflationary depression looming on the horizon. Buy it while you still can. Demand will pull it off the market at any price as things progress.
There are certainly risks that large gold holders might have to liquidate, thus driving down the price. But that's in the near to intermediate term. It's almost unfathomable to see any circumstances that would result in gold being priced in only a small number of US dollars in the longer term. Now, gold in terms of barrels of oil is something else to debate ;-)
Gold is not an investment. It's not much of an asset, except that it is a pretty reliable store of wealth. You will not be getting real returns, but you will be avoiding real losses by buying gold.
I put the big position on at ~$750, "took profits" and lost about $100 of the up move (oops), but have a fairly good size position locked in now. Silver turned out even better. Like all trading, there is regret: either a trade is bad & shouldn't have been made, or it's good and should have been made in larger size
Given that you're here in the first place, and given that you're asking such a question, I think it's worth reminding that gold/silver are not quick-flip profit trades for people in (what I presume is) your situation.
It is about wealth-preservation. If something goes completely haywire with the dollar, gold/silver will be hard assets which can be used to recover some fraction of your losses. Make no mistake: if you're an American and the dollar collapses, you'll see huge losses, no matter what your portfolio looks like.
This means dips of $20-$30 per oz on gold are *nothing* to worry about. It would be very nice to always buy at the bottom of a dip. But those bottoms last less than an hour, and with current price volatility, the likelihood of catching any *significant* break on price is vanishingly small.
If you're looking to "invest" any significant sums, say over $50,000, be as cautious as you like. If you're like most people and don't have big bucks to pull out of your budget right now, just buy a little something now, a little something later, and a little something after that. If there is a significant pullback, buy a bit more.
You'll sleep better.
i think you have the right idea. don't ever chase price especially at these levels. there seems to be plenty of room for consolidation at this point. my limited experience has been to keep your eye on the daily, be patient, wait for the eventual dip, wait a little more, and then buy. there's always silver to assuage that need for to put a few chips on the table. check out the big players on the COT. check out 321Gold.com.(especially Stewart Thomson) make a regular visit to JSmineset.com and listen to Dan Norcini. hold a good core position and good luck.
Wealthy Indians are Loading wheel barrows on this dip, the article said they have NEVER seen anything like it.
They are scared to death of a DD here, and the Currency war probabilites, getting HOTTER.
WE,as you all know, ARE CENTER STAGE right now.
I would be surprised if the numbers are cooked for the BETTER.
Esp w/the election around the corner, but that would not make sense either, the Dems are going to get nailed badly either way.
The NOT knowing is the worst part of this entire debacle, and the more we learn, the worse it gets.
Now Obama is going to let these foreclosures go thru,screw that contract!!.
Written contracts MEAN nothing to this crooked MF!.
I'm planning to buy some more in the next few days, but I'm also stocking up on other essentials that may not be available in the near future.
Everyone should have six months of food for whoever is in their "klan" and be prepared to get kicked back to the turn of the century. Notice Obama is out of the country Nov 4 - 14th. Strange, given that election time.
If you have other things in place, don't try to time the market, just get what you can get. In a long term bull market, your mistakes will be covered by the long term upward price. Also, don't panic if it drops, even by say $100/DAY because we will see that too in the days to come. Its purchasing power could rise 50 fold in the near future as the multiple financial frauds completely unravel.
"Notice Obama is out of the country Nov 4 - 14th. Strange, given that election time."
Well, with that dude, I am as skittish as a 2 day old colt.
Being out of the country with an election of this magnitude makes no sense to me, either he's thrown in the towel, and knows it's going to be really bad,or maybe there won't be an election.
Sorry,at this point I would believe about anything..........
Nightmare on Elm Street ,for REAL would be preferable to this mess. And LORD what a mess........and it hasn't even started.
S_O_B!!!!!
Good to know, thanks!
they have to have QE now that the banking fraud has been revealed. its over for the big banks....QE will give them another couple trillion to stay afloat long enough to hand out another round of bonuses......
that's actually the goal.....don't kid yourself.