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Red Alert?
My success ratio of calling short-term tops/bottoms in markets is about 1
in 4. Lousy. With that caveat I tell you I cut all my trading positions
this morning. I cut the long gold short dollar stuff. I took off a
bunch of equity high alpha stuff. I cut the syndicate stuff to as small
as possible. Why? Because all this ‘stuff” is getting to scary prices,
and it is happening too fast.
My concern is regarding the NFP numbers tomorrow. Things could change
almost regardless of the results. There are only three possible
outcomes. The numbers could be hot, cold or “just right” (consensus).
If there is no surprise I think I have a decent chance of getting back
into things over a few days without much opportunity cost.
If this number is hotter than expected watch out. It will turn the QE
debate in a different direction. How can Big Ben and his mates push a
dangerous monetary policy when there is evidence it is not needed? They can't, so QE will be delayed and that is not in the market.
If the data is cold and unemployment pushes up a notch or two and the
employment numbers are much worse than anticipated and it is clear we
headed into a 4Q breakeven GDP then I will be wrong. But not poorer. And
even in this scenario I could still be right.
If the number is cold tomorrow QE-2 becomes a certainty. But really that
has been the case for weeks now. Bernanke has made up his mind some
time ago on this. A soft payroll number would give him the cover he
wants/needs to get acceptance for the "pedal to the metal" monetary
approach. The stupidest most dangerous monetary policy decision in the
past 70 years is good for stocks? When does the reality set in that we
just set the ship of our own demise?
All the markets are correlated around strong equities and the "risk on"
trade. We have had that for the past six weeks. I am afraid that no
matter the result of the NFP we are going to into a risk off mode.
If that is the case I will be able to get back into my favorite trades at better levels.
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Have to agree with the unwashed ones. QE is a gift to banksters and large cap CEOs everywhere. Not so much for the unemployed. Whatever the cover, that is the game. Fuck 'em.
they have to have QE now that the banking fraud has been revealed. its over for the big banks....QE will give them another couple trillion to stay afloat long enough to hand out another round of bonuses......
that's actually the goal.....don't kid yourself.
That has been my thought for a while now. The banks get money, they pay their employees, and hand out bonuses. It must be really nice knowing that there is Uncle Ben out there making sure bankers keep their jobs and everyone else gets to pay for it.
10/10/10
02/07/11
10/10/10 @ 10:10
If this number is hotter than expected watch out. It will turn the QE debate in a different direction.
that would make sense, but this market isn't so logical.
this gang rape of gold tells you what happens tomorrow....ben and the boyz had to push gold down.......
the number will be horrific, and give air cover.....
gold will move back to 1365 in a heart beat and beyond, but.........JPM will have had a chance to cover some today.....
Please, please let gold tank...
I want to buy low just before the ship hits the sand....
gang rape?
Goldy's due for a $50 breather anyway...$20 more to go
Thanks for the honesty.