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Redburn Partners On The Coming Gold War: "Gold Is Money And Nothing Else"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A must read paper by Redburn Partners, "Gold War - Gold is money and nothing else", written in November 2007, which due to its extreme prescience on not only the shift of the economy following the bursting of the credit bubble, but being virtually spot on in its prediction on the price of gold, can serve as an sufficiently comprehensive introduction to anyone wishing to get up to speed with the primary forces determining the price of gold and its implications in a fiat-money world (and especially the prevailing current variant in which competitive devaluations galore).

Key highlights:

  • Gold price will reach at least US$1,500/oz: we are raising our long-term gold price estimate to US$1,500/oz (from US$900/oz) with the possibility of a spike to US$4,000-5,000/oz. We see gold acting as a ‘Giffen good’ for a period – a rising price leading to accelerating demand as its investment profile sees a resurgence.
  • Rising gold price is a warning signal: it casts doubt on the US economy. We believe inflation is far higher than reported, money supply growth is running at 14%, debt/GDP is nearly 350% (vs the 270% peak in the Depression) and the ‘fiscal gap’ faced by the Federal Government is US$50-70trn. The Federal Government’s accounts have not been signed off by its auditors for ten years.
  • The US faces rapidly rising inflation or deflationary recession: credit cycles (and this one is extreme) always end in a deflationary bust – this is the lesson of the Kondratieff Cycle. The Fed will most likely try to defy economic gravity using increasingly inflationary means. Gold is the only asset to outperform in periods of either uncontrollable inflation or deflation: the US economy is on a knife-edge between the two.
  • A “Crack-up Boom”?: should the Fed choose to stave off recession via inflation, the scene could be set for a “Crack-up Boom”. If inflation is perceived to be a deliberate policy, there will be major shift out of financial assets (like cash and bonds) and into “real” assets. Gold will be the asset of choice and gold stocks will experience a bull market. In the report, we highlight Peter Hambro Mining (rated Buy). Natural resources and natural resource stocks will also benefit: the Mining sector as a whole would continue to outperform.
  • Lack of transparency: gold is a vital barometer and if the gold market is not free and transparent, it acts against the interests of businesses, investors and the public. IMF accounting regulations continue to obscure the level of gold remaining in central bank vaults. Furthermore, the use of unallocated gold accounts masks the fractional reserve nature of most gold banking/trading and private investment. Holders of “unallocated” gold are simply unsecured creditors with general claims on  "pools” of gold. If all those claiming gold ownership demanded physical delivery, we argue the gold price would soar.

Full research paper:

 

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Sun, 02/21/2010 - 20:29 | 239571 Doug
Doug's picture

Well, gosh, I can't even begin to figure out how to respond to that one.  You got me there.  LOL  Good God, I hope you're kidding.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:18 | 239738 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Because they're "keeping it real". :)

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:29 | 239764 35Pete
35Pete's picture

Or popes? 

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 00:24 | 239840 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

And Mr. T

Mon, 04/12/2010 - 17:56 | 297119 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yeah!  And see how your wife would like for you to exchange her wedding ring for an aluminum one....

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 17:07 | 239436 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture
by Fritz
on Sun, 02/21/2010 - 13:35
#239344

 

I don't think I have seen a bearish story on gold for a long time. One has to ask, if everyone is bullish on gold, who is left to buy?

This seems like every other "story" throughout history where a chart goes parabolic, sucks in the public, and then craters.

*************************************

This is typical talk of one who doesn't understand the function of gold-

Maybe consider this--in the 1st paragraph --

(and especially the prevailing current variant in which competitive devaluations galore). Then try to remember all the gazillion threads that ZH has done on collapsing currency's and then "think" and ask yourself-- What would happen if this virus spread into the majors? ie--GBP/Yen/Yaun Then ask --how would central banks ever stop a run? And how would they strengthen a currency--when bullshit don't cut it anymore? Ummmm--i do believe the only way--would be the reverse of how they were able to weaken them,in the first place-- They cut gold out--and sold it into the open markets--in order to print and devalue-- The reverse of that would be-- To rush into the open market and BUY GOLD at any price,to stabalize the currency--

Make sense yet?

I didn't think so--

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 17:38 | 239456 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

 

 

by Chopshop
on Sun, 02/21/2010 - 12:56
#239313

 

the argument would be more persuasive if it correctly cited (1) what a giffen good is, (2) how disinflationary push 'works', (3) the K wave itself or any other cyclic activity ... after reading that "gold prices rise very rapidly in periods of deflation" that kinda sealed the anal-ytic deal.  sounds great but did the author actually check out that 'fact.'  yeah, guess not, cause it ain't right. its only 179 degrees wrong though, so what's the big deal ?

seriously: can anyone do any work that looks back more than one fucking cycle or 30 friggin years instead of form fitting a question to meet the answer they wanna arrive at.  so lazy. so, so intellectually lazy.

*********************************

Geezuzz--for someone who talks with such confidence--

One would think you would have at least tried to do a bit of research before you spewed your drivel--talk about fucken laziness--

It really isn't that complicated--

Here's gold that goes back over 100 years--

check out the 1930's--unless you think that period was inflationary--gold skyrocketed in buying power/while being dollar locked--

Ya see--it's "never" about how many dollars you have in your pocket--

It's "always" about what those dollars can buy you--

With gold--it's "never" about the price--

It's "always" about its buying power--

http://studentofmarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/dj-au-ratio-lt.gif

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 17:54 | 239463 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Those who understands the rule of MONEY understands that GOLD is money. It was the case 6000 years ago in Babylon and it is still the same rule that governs the world today. GOLD IS MONEY. So is it's little brother Silver.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 18:05 | 239472 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

How gold acts in deflation--

There are two scenarios-

When only one or so country's are in deflation (Japan) and when most all the world is in deflation--like now

 

http://www.nowandfutures.com/d2/BehaviorOfGoldUnderDeflation.pdf

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 18:29 | 239489 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Eric Hoffer, the longshoreman philosopher said, "Money is Freedom".  Gold is money.  Remember the "Got Milk?" Ads?  Got Freedom?

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:56 | 239801 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

 

Speaking of longshoremen philosophers, how about these On The Waterfront philosophers:

"Hey, you wanna hear my philosophy of life? Do it to him before he does it to you." Terry Malloy (Marlon Brando).

"You want to know what's wrong with our waterfront? It's the love of a lousy buck. It's making love of a buck - -the cushy job - -more important than the love of man!" Father Barry (Karl Malden).

"Isn't it simple as one, two, three? One: The working conditions are bad. Two: They're bad because the mob does the hiring. And three: The only way we can break the mob is to stop letting them get away with murder." Father Barry (Karl Malden).

 

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 18:36 | 239491 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

If gold rises to $5,000 an ounce, that's a big move. 

For the moment, consider that the move would coincide with a total collapse...  And by total, I mean martial law...

In that case, which actions might you foresee the government taking in regard to gold or silver?  Seizure by the state?  It's use as currency?  Would you feel comfortable utilizing precious metals for purchase in public?  Thoughts?

I haven't yet added precious metals to the collection, because if the shit hits the fan, I'm betting on guns and ammunition...  And a cabin in the northern woods of Wisconsin. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_I4WgBfETc&feature=related

Wolverines!

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 20:40 | 239575 Tethys
Tethys's picture

If and when people start to panic and dump $$$ for Au, I'm pretty convinced that the gov't will adopt a plan similar to what is currently being considered in Greece:  pass a law requiring all large purchases to be electronic.  And probably they will also establish large rewards for turning in anyone trying to transact by any other means - cash, barter, gold, silver, etc.

This will require emergency powers and likely be touted (as in Greece) as a way to ensure everyone pays their fair share of taxes.

The reason I believe this will be attempted is that there are simply too many benefits to the-powers-that-be:

(1) Eliminates the threat of bank runs - it doesn't make sense to run to the bank to withdraw paper cash when it has zero value as soon as you receive it since you can only transact electronically ('credit or debit').  You will have to have your money in a bank, or use credit. 

(2) Taxation.  Eliminates the possibility of evading taxes since every major purchase is recorded.  This will be critical because as the SHTF the gov't will need to raise taxes to keep funding the debt and their plush retirement plans, and/or fund any war they start to distract and rally the general populace.

(3) Eliminates those pesky anonymous purchases.  Everything you buy will be tracked in gov't databases.

(4) Totally avoids the issue of confiscating people's physical gold (a process which would be quite ugly and dangerous).  If you try to transact in gold you will be breaking the law, and risking that someone turns you in for a large reward (in electronic 'e-dollars', of course).

(5) If currency is solely electronic, you avoid people collecting large stashes of cash (in mattresses, etc.) which are outside of the control of the bankers.  The money supply is completely controlled. This makes devaluation much more simple. The only options at stores, restaurants, gas stations etc. will be 'credit or debit'.  Maybe checks.  To spend your money, you must give it to a bank.  No messy Zimbabwe wheelbarrows or devaluation exchange rates - your money buys less with the click of a mouse.

(6) This type of approach by the gov't / banks, if they can enforce it, would make it virtually impossible to prepare for the coming clu$terf*ck.  Only thing I could see being a 'store of wealth' would be real estate.  And I am sure they have some nice plans for anyone trying that route.  It's not really your land, you see, if you can't pay the taxes on it.  Have fun with that after a few devaluations when you can't even afford a loaf of bread.

If you think this sounds far-fetched, consider how many people you know who actually use paper cash to transact anymore.  Try it in an Apple store and they will look at you like you are from another planet.  A more paranoid person might think they have been working up to the 'credit or debit' society for quite some time.

Good thing I'm not that paranoid.

*twitch*

 

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 22:04 | 239644 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

I don't think this is far-fetched, but I do think it would be a short and violent prelude to a sort of mixture of Somalia and a nuclear civil war.

Another good reason to be somewhere else, if you can.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:23 | 239751 tpberg7
tpberg7's picture

You are certainly not paranoid, but painfully realistic about the current condition of our civilization.  This scenario was predicted years ago in a cryptic book:  Revelation 13:17 - And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.  Not knowing about e-money, computers and the Internet the writer did his best to portray how the governments of the future would control their citizens!

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:33 | 239771 akak
akak's picture

I use cash for virtually every transaction (certain airline tickets the only exception), and if you valued your financial privacy as well as striking a blow against the corrupt and insatiable megabanks, you would too.

Down with credit cards!  Long live cash!

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 00:32 | 239846 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Tethys,

Your assumptions may be correct. However, you are missing some more assumptions.

To start with, government people are also people and there will always be a window in the law for them and their friends. More powerful argument though, is that the good old boys in this country will not stand for it.

BTW: In Greece, no one will dare turn you in. That will be a Greek tragedy for the idiot who will even try and those idiots also know it.

Greece has gun laws but guns are everywhere and tolerated. The reason for this is that after WWII, the government armed the right wing to defend against the leftist rebels and gun ownership has now turned into a cultural given.

Traveling through Crete all the road signs are full of holes as they are the targets for gun enthusiasts.

(See picture 26)

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.gaiaworldtour.net/Gaia%2520Diaries/crete/It%27s%2520all%2520Gtreek%2520to%2520me.JPG&imgrefurl=http://www.gaiaworldtour.net/Gaia%2520Diaries/index.htm&usg=__AcE6R3qxJfMZkSUDa68dYHekKXM=&h=480&w=640&sz=107&hl=en&start=6&itbs=1&tbnid=gcCcLl01BXRErM:&tbnh=103&tbnw=137&prev=/images%3Fq%3Droad%2Bsigns%2Bfull%2Bof%2Bholes%2Bin%2BCrete%26hl%3Den%26tbs%3Disch:1  

 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 08:46 | 240059 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That's not a new idea by any means.

Most people don't know that at one time the U.S. had high-denomination notes. They didn't circulate too much, but they were out there. $500, $1000, $5000, $10000, and even larger bills for use between banks. As I understand it, printing of such bills ended in the 1930s or 1940s, and while technically legal to use, withdrawn from circulation in the 1960s, under the guise of "money laundering" and such. At the time, my dad mentioned that one way to catch these guys would be to have a "new" currency -- overnight, everyone has to turn in their currencies after which they are worthless, or at least worth a lot less.

This is problematic (ask North Korea, for starters) and the US hasn't had a currency change in quite some time.

For example, while the $1000 bills are no longer issued by the bureau of printing and engraving, they are still quite legal to spend. They tend to have a collector value well beyond the face value that precludes circulation but it's not a factor of their legal tender status.

I suppose that even Lincolns' Greenbacks would be legal tender, maybe, for sure any of the FED notes after 1914, and US notes as well.

Can anybody think of any other country still using the same nominal currency from 100 plus years ago? Maybe some sovereign bonds from other countries perform a similar function as money or currency over longer periods of time, but as far as a basic, wallet stuffer currency unit, no way.

In some ways, the re-design of the currency in addition to helping combat counterfeiting is a method of extirpating the older notes. I don't see them at all anymore, and when I do they look weird!

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:00 | 239510 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The GATA member. who is posting here should educate himself....and a message to him that I hope all your gold and silver is in grain form, otherwise if your barter economy comes to pass, you will be spending 1/10 oz of gold to buy a half gallon of milk, no one is going to give you change in a barter economy, where milk or bread or a car will be more valuable than your gold ( 2 Kings 6:25)

When on a gold standard, gold is a weight (no GATA, it is not money, the unit of currency -usually cash- is still the money) and the unit of currency is measured in grains of gold (23.22 grains for a US$1 for the historical), so Gold is a weight. As for holding it's purchasing power, the $ was fixed at $20.37 an oz from 1837 to 1933 (noted with some breaks when you could not exchange it e.g. US civil war) and NO gold did not keep it's purchasing power at all in multiple very long occasions from 1849-1860 and from 1896 to 1920, gold fell in value against almost any basket of consumer goods, or stocks or real estate. Why ? You can still have a credit cycle while on the gold standard, you just have to believe you will earn a greater return on your investment than the cost of borrowing in gold (usually very low in a gold standard economy).

The only absolute about gold is there is nothing new about it, and nothing new to learn about it., sure everyone should own a little, coins make for nice gifts for babies and teaches them about money, gold is also shiny and heavy, but don't drop the pure coins, you may have to sell them for less than their "worth."

As for anyone who has 100% of their net worth in it, well good luck to you: time has shown that you probably do much better diversifying and owning some real estate and stocks (unless you think an ounce of gold bought the same amount of property in 1837 -anywhere in the world that it did in 1920 ? or that it does today in 2010 ? ...If Mr. 100% gold could go back in time, would you rather own gold at any time in history through today, or would you rather have bought Standard Oil ? As for there being a finite amount, yes we all live on one planet and so much like most things, there is a finite amount on the crust of the earth. Most great gold mine deposits were alluvial, and if you want to have some fun, figure out how much gold there is in the world's oceans, an amount much greater than the world's monetary base. FInally If you buy gold at the high, like the poor people who did so in the early 1980s - who have finally broken even in NOMINAL terms, not REAL terms of course: Gold has not held it's value from the 1980 period today in purchasing power, not in bubble gum, not in taxi fare, not in Goldschlager, it HAS in Silver mind you ;-)....nor will Gold ever catch up to shares of Walmart or Berkshire Hathaway.... If you buy gold at the high, well you may in retrospect have been better off holding the $100 trillon zimbabwe bill, at least that is a collectible.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 20:30 | 239572 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Are you serious...who are you Yul Brenner in the 10 commandments? just because you say it doesn't make it so..here's a history lesson..listen

http://tinyurl.com/y8k5ht5

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:04 | 239516 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

by akak
on Sun, 02/21/2010 - 14:53

 

Learn a little history, and this will become abundantly clear to any objective and open-minded observer.  Gold is the money of both freedom and security for the average individual, neither of which it is in the interests of the political-financial establishment that the average person enjoys.

**************************

Yes--gold is a monetary metal 2nd--

A Political metal 1st--

So few understand this--

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTLKDKYf9Vw

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:20 | 239527 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

I got trailer full of that stuff, it's really useless (busted tires)! Tomorrow I'm selling, I like those green, freshly printed pieces of paper, they look so cute! And I'm going to buy 30 years treasuries for it! I'm going to be rich! 

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:23 | 239530 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

I got trailer full of that stuff, it's really useless (busted tires)! Tomorrow I'm selling, I like those green, freshly printed pieces of paper, they look so cute! And I'm going to buy 30 years treasuries for it! I'm going to be rich! 

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:34 | 239541 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Very good article. The US keeps giving China paper money for goods. If China were to ask for 1 oz of Gold from the US in exchange for goods the US would say screw you! There in a nutshell is the case for Gold.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:50 | 239549 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The first question I have to ask anyone who has over 5% of their net wealth in gold is, who controls the price of gold? I never get a satisfactory answer, and so I end up thinking that anyone who doesn't know who controls the price of gold yet has a large investment in it is just plain stupid.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 20:09 | 239558 Fix It Again Timmy
Sun, 02/21/2010 - 20:24 | 239567 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

EPIC.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 22:28 | 239682 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+1

FOFOA da man.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:51 | 239797 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

discovered fofoa a while ago. He makes sense

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 21:12 | 239596 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

How can you, today, equate gold to money?  There is but a fraction of gold relative tothe worlds debt.  But then again I guess that is better than fiat.  You know it seems to me that everyone is placing their bets on what has the best chances of still standing after the shit hits the fan.  I've never experienced this before, at this level. It is truly fascinating and will be even more fascinating as we continue to navigate these uncharted waters.

Yes, Gold at one time (for a long time) was in fact the ulitimate backstop.  The problem I see with gold is that it will be horded by governments and a few (relative to the entire population) very wealthy individuals. In otherwords there won't be enough people holding the currencey to allow a society to function.  This is just an unimaginable outcome.

I'm not a conspiracy guy but I would suggest that the worldwide central banks driven by the countries with the most nukes may end up trying to force a single currency.  How else are you going to wipe out this level of debt?Intriguing minds want to know?????

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 04:53 | 239980 nuinut
nuinut's picture

as pointed out above, 


Read this very carefully....

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/02/greece-is-word.html

might answer your questions

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 21:22 | 239608 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture
by Anonymous
on Sun, 02/21/2010 - 15:54
#239463

 

Those who understands the rule of MONEY understands that GOLD is money. It was the case 6000 years ago in Babylon and it is still the same rule that governs the world today. GOLD IS MONEY. So is it's little brother Silver.

***********************************

Silver is gold's little "sister" that no one sees-yet--

But one day--this little sweetheart will shed her veil and when she starts to strut her stuff across the world stage--her beauty--speed and power will leave all todays naysayers in shock and confusion--and though they will try--they'll never catch her--with the blinding speed she will unleash--

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBLI9jq6tUY

 

 

 

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 21:24 | 239611 jharry
jharry's picture

The problem is your can't eat or drink gold, so when the shtf, canned goods, etc., might be a better bet.  As the reliable gold guru Gary North says, gold will be good to have after whatever happens -- happens.  And he doesn't like silver.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 22:06 | 239646 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

I can't eat or drink greenbacks either.  Or ammo.  Or my house.  Something doesn't have to be edible to have value.

Of course, reductio ad absurdum, anyone who put every last cent into gold and didn't have the essentials of life on hand would have a short and gloomy life in a collapse.  But would make some bandit rich!

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 22:52 | 239698 akak
akak's picture

I can't eat or drink YOU either, Mr. JHarry, so by your logic you are also worthless.

Please kindly take the next obvious step and go kill yourself.

But before you do, please send me all of your worthless gold, as it would be a shame to have to burden your family or loved ones with it.

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 21:26 | 239616 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture
by RSDallas
on Sun, 02/21/2010 - 19:12
#239596

How can you, today, equate gold to money?  There is but a fraction of gold relative tothe worlds debt

*********************************

 

I read only that far and stopped dead--

Gold is divisable ffs--

How about if--Gold was priced at 10 trillion/oz or 1 trillion?

Sounds like enough gold to me--

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:04 | 239719 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How about everybody figure how to be in conciousness, and save your spirtual eccense. Gold, ammo , food , shelter, and a power source might help you stay alive long enough on on this physical plane to help ypu figure out what is causing this collpase and who you really are. And no Im not a religous fanatic.

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 00:22 | 239835 Clinteastwood
Clinteastwood's picture

"Be in consciousness"...................what a load.  How long have we heard that nonsense?  And we're still not there yet?   Doesn't it occur to you that we're never going to get there?  That whole paradigm is a lie.  Why not go directly to the source of all wisdom?  Read the Bible and pray.  Commune with almighty God.  

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 00:23 | 239838 saulysw
saulysw's picture

I have been wondering about gold while reading all of these comments, and happened to look down to my left hand. Why, when we get married in what is perhaps the most significant bond in our lives, the creation of a new family, do we put a gold ring on our fingers? This tradition, I think, has more meaning that perhaps many see. In this example, gold is not money, it is wealth, symbolism and tradition. Is your wedding ring worth it's weight in gold -- or more -- to you? Gold has an emotional component, which is expressed in the tone of those that love it, and those who don't.

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 01:03 | 239862 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Gold should allready be at $1,500 acording to the fundamentals but is being manipulated ass we all know. Gold will go to $2,000 at the end of 2010 is my prediction.

Gold May Advance to $1,400 in 12 Months: Technical Analysis 18 February 2010 (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=auBQnoSvlsEk

European investors pour money into gold 21 February 2010 (CommodityOnline) http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/European-invest...

Gold Production Has Peaked: CEO 19 February 2010 (CNBC) http://www.cnbc.com/id/35475766

INTERVIEW - Pension funds, central banks to boost gold in 2010 17 February 2010 (Reuters) http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-46244020100217?rpc=...

George Soros buys gold despite dubbing it 'ultimate bubble' 17 February 2010 (Telegraph.UK) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/725916...

Why the IMF's supposed gold sales don't mean much 17 February 2010 (GATA) http://www.gata.org/node/8340

Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan  http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm

The regulation of OTC derivatives - Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, July 24, 1998

Quote: “Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.”

Gold Telegram http://www.scribd.com/doc/20215562/Gold-Telegram

 

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 00:58 | 239867 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

i am only half way through reading this document but am astounded by its continuing relevance after more than 2 years....i am not going to bother to respond the fucktards who gainsay gold.

to those who have an intellectual curiosity in gold and its moneyness please read all of this report augmented by professor fekete's essays. to the gainsayers all i can say is fuck you....u r too imbecilic for words....

gold is in severe and permanent backwardation....the time to buy gold is now....pay no attention to the paper price of gold - it is faked by the market fakers and gold suppressionists - i.e. the central bankers and their toady banksters....

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 01:51 | 239918 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Even if the gold advocates are right, and they well could be, they're wrong. Just as renters who saved 25% of their income are being forced to bail out house-flippers, gold hoarders will simply have their assets seized.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=14611

They seized it in 1933 and they'll seize it again. If you want a hedge against inflation/fiat currency, forget gold, just become a federal employee. They're the last to starve.

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 10:10 | 240099 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Uh oh - fox urine. Better stay away from that gold insurance, because the big bad Fed gonna take it away. Good news! You are ignorant enough to be a Gov worker - yay!

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 07:34 | 240029 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This piece is one of the best I have ever seen and it has even more credit as it was done in 2007 (before many things happened).

There is a major catalyst that is still needed for Gold to go much higher which is: the complete BK of the London vaults...which eventually will take place during the next delivery (March 2010) period.

Also interesting to note is that Correlation between Gold and Dollar Index is almost positive (few more days like this and it will be positive). In the past this was followed by spike in prices of roughly 50%.

Let's see if we get $1'500 to $1'700 by mid-March....

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 08:15 | 240049 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

Now  is  the  time  to  consolodate... if  you  have  4  Tv sets  that  work,

sell  2  or  3 .  take  the  cash >>  buy  Food  and  or  Silver / Gold.

same  goes  for  extra  stereo  equip. ,  guitars ,  furniture ,  after  the  big  crash  comes,  you  won't  get  a  fair  price  for  a  mint  '57  Chevy.

I  would  rather  have  a  '58  Chevy anyway...

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 09:37 | 240077 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

Question  :  

What  is  better  than  512  oz.  of  Silver

Answer  :

   520   oz.  of  Silver

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 09:48 | 240085 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You can hold gold or you can hold a derivative of gold. The entire financial system is a derivative of gold. The $1 Quadrillion+ $ clusterfuck known as the global financial system spawned from Gold and will soon collapse down onto it sending it's value into the stratosphere.

"I ask you, how can currency price gold? Indeed, no price will work! You think any form of "paper gold" will stand this fire? Can we do battle with lions? When oil will not take currency without gold the havenots will not sit still!

"When a thousand hungry lions fight over one scrap of food, small dogs should hide with whats in their belly". -ANOTHER

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 09:49 | 240086 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

As a foreigner, living in the € zone, I can say that gold price must go to 5000 or even more $....

but... what would be the $/€ at this time..???

let's go for a little fiction :

- failure of Tbond sale => $ up or down..???
- imagine down => Gold and associate's ETF up....
- massive sales of these ETF (to buy physical)
- then... yes gold UP..!! but not available physically..!!

then.. what..?? $ down, gold on top & ETF @ or near 0..!!

good luck to anyone.... and spread your risks..!!

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 12:02 | 240192 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

"In the absence of a gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good and thereafter decline to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as claims on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to be able to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." --- Alan Greenspan, 'Gold and Economic Freedom' (1966).

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 15:31 | 240534 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

My recurring nightmare revolves around the scarcity issue with AU.It seems that the theories about the generation of the heavier elements occurring in the supposed central nuclear furnaces of stars and stellar explosions are at the end of their intellectual run. The hard charging Electric Universe theorists say that the sun and other stars are anodes on a galactic circuit and that the transmutation of elements is taking place right in front of our eyes in the photosphere of the sun. If so what is to prevent Lawrence Livermore et.al. to develop plasmoid/plasma generators that mimic the solar process ? My effing nightmare is bricks and coins coming off the assembly lines like M&Ms. Yikes... Help-Electrical engineers someone tell me this out of the realm of possibility or even just probability. Astronomers please do not respond because you'll have to pull your heads out of your asses and forgo that most wonderful contemplation of black holes and dark matter. Thanks in advance - Pope Clement

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 17:41 | 240691 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Gold is found in any part of the universe that happened to be formed by a SuperNova so NO gold is not only found on planet earth but it is also not found everywhere. Gold is valuable because it is finite and it can be coined into a universally accepted weight and measure.

Steinways and cars, some of you are really pushing the limit of special education, the powers that be have succeeded. Trust me, they don't have cash in their deep dark storage...

Sat, 04/17/2010 - 10:52 | 305600 Tom123456
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Sun, 06/05/2011 - 08:06 | 1340865 sun1
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