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Refresh of Black Swan definition-Taleb
Every now and then one should reread the below, especially in these uncertain times.
“Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the genreal rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race “looking out for its best interest,” as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday nefore Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”
“The turkey problem can be generalized to any situation where the same hand that feeds you can be the one that wrings your neck.” s 40, Black Swan, Nassim Taleb
For deeper knowledge, check out video with Taleb from earlier this year here.
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Never seen Ben looking so good.............
Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said a presentation of the Gang of Six's plan to cut the deficit by $3.7 trillion Tuesday morning left many senators with a positive feeling....
http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/07/senate-majori...
OT: Hilarious 2 min Vid...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0Uju3tYS2s
All herds are assembled for eventual slaughter. Embrace collectivism at your own peril.
80 % of the sheeple are fucking idiots!!!!!!!!
Who are the other 20% doing?
Turkey and peas bitchez...
Stop being 2D. Measure the volume.
A world of possibilities for more complex analysis.
+1
By Daniel Gross | Contrary Indicator
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daniel-gross/banks-pay-back-tarp-funds-bo... How strange can this get?
Now we know why dinossaurs went bust.
Isn't a turkey a dinosaur? Spielberg thinks so.
I think the study missed a key variable: penis elasticity--the capacity of the penis to respond to demand.
And what about velocity? I am pretty sure that a premature penis can cause an inflation spike.
i'm still trying to tell you, based on good authority, after the first six inches or so it's girth. after eight inches it's part of the problem not part of the solution. at least re: women.
I'm gonna keep this post for posterity. How could we ever avoid collapse? It's here. And if anybody had a doubt, they can please read this tread. I'm gonna keep it for posterity. They're gonna laugh at us 100 years from now. Oh yes, the correlation between penis and economic growth..
I wondered why so many of you were angry, then I read this.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2011/07/chart-penile-length-leads-...
Chart: Penile Length Leads to Little Economic Growth
That's right, penis size. In a study published today, the University of Helsinki's Tatu Westling points out a surprising strong correlation between a country's GDP growth rate and average penile length. As the chart above shows, countries that averaged smaller penis sizes grew at a faster rate than their larger counterparts between 1960 and 1985. Every centimeter increase in penis size accounted for a 5 to 7 percent reduction in economic growth. The study also showed that overall GDP was at its highest in countries with average-sized penises with GDP falling at the extremes of penis length. As Westling explains in his paper, previous studies "concentrate on economic, social and political factors, these and many related treatments largely abstain from biological and/or sexual considerations. The aim of this paper is to fi ll this scholarly gap with the male organ." Interesting choice of words (the study is full of them, as you'll see below), but why should this particular, um, unit have any explanatory power? Penis size and economic growth might be related through some intermediary variable like gender equality, political stability, or population growth, Westling writes, but he seems to prefer an admittedly more Freudian explanation that goes like this: Penile length and income are both factors that contribute to an individual's level of self-esteem, and if a person has more of the former, he'll need less of the latter. Or, to put it in layman's terms, some fast-growing countries may be compensating for something. Not a particularly poor argument until you realize, as Westling acknowledges, that half the world's population don't have penises.
...well, I'd like ti know at what time of day they did the measuring....anecdotally, mine appears longer in the morning.
rosiescenario
I find that the Beer to length ratio works well. Unfortunately at a certain level negative variables come into play.
This more likely means that reported GDP is exaggerated by anything up to about 50%
old austrian
Or this tactfully described alternative.
Silly Sisters - My Husband's Got No Courage in Him
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgEp2MGx30M
My Husband's Got No Courage in Him
As I went out one May morning
To view the fields and leaves a-springing
I saw two maidens standing by
And one of them her hands was wringing
Oh dear-o ! oh dear-o !
My husband's got no courage in him.
Oh dear-o !
Me husband's admired wherever he goes
And everyone looks well upon him
With his handsome features and well-shaped leg
But still he's got no courage in him
Me husband can dance and caper and sing
And do anything that's fitting for him
But he cannot do the thing I want
Because he's got no courage in him
All sorts of vittles I did provide
A sorts of meats that's fitting for him
With oyster pie and rhubarb too
But still he's got no courage in him
Every night when I goes to bed
I lie and throw me leg right o'er him
And me hand I clamp between his thighs
But I can't put any courage in him
Seven long years I've made his bed
And every night I've lain beside him
But this morning I rose with me maidenhead
For still he's got no courage in him
I wish me husband he was dead
And in his grave I'd quickly lay him
And then I'd find another one
That had a little courage in him
So all ye maids come listen to me
Don't marry a man before you've tried him
Or else you'll sing this song like me
Me husband's got no courage in him
"I think it most people are optimistic by nature, >80%"
I think you may mean 'optimistic by inculcation'......as opposed to optimistic due to critical thought process.
I think most people >95% follow a herding instinct and if the lead animal is optimistic, they are too. How else can you explain why people still follow what stock analysts have to say?
Enjoyed the video from Taleb, Thanks
I think it most people are optimistic by nature, >80%
Just a little story of mine, I was working in a aqua culture lab, Talking with the head scientist, I asked why instead of raising clams and oysters in a lab. Why not just stop the cause of there demise in nature. Now of course this started a heated debate. Anyway, I said it was a hopeless cause and even it it worked a meteor would take us all out, Naturally the scientist dismissed my synopsis as pessimistic to say the least.
Just two days later, Earth had a meteor pass so close and unseen: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2444-asteroids-nearmiss-with-earth.html That scientist NEVER SPOKE TO ME AGAIN....
Just one of life's little pleasures. hehe
Most people are optimistic...
until it gets beaten out of them.
Presently I am feeling a bit "beat". As an un-schooled modeller of behaviors, I have been so many times. Can any one help me on Cusp Catastrophes ? It seems plain that the retail participant (trackable population) and natural populations are analogous. The position of Casti in "Reality Rules" is that a purely speculative market would never crash. So, Do we have a natural population or a synthetic ?
Black Swans, Cold Turkeys and Chickens coming to roost.
I'll reach for the Grey Goose, Wild Turkey, and Old Speckled Hens.