Reggie Middleton's CRE Short List, Part 1

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Mon, 11/16/2009 - 20:54 | 132559 Anonymous
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All IYR prices are going up since nearly all entities now have access to refinance their worthless bonds with the FED's help. The ability to refinance allows the equity prices to move up. Liquidity is now being translated into credit to refin in both the residential and commerical real estate markets. Higher vacancies and lower rents (fundamental analysis) will not translate into lower equity values in my opinion

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 21:30 | 132607 Reggie Middleton
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Higher vacancies and lower rents (fundamental analysis) will not translate into lower equity values in my opinion

It really is a shame if you truly believe that. I know there are many others with that opinion. With enough "higher vacancies and sufficiently lower rents" you will achieve bankruptcy. Will that translate into lower equity values?

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 21:43 | 132623 Anonymous
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Dear Sir,

I have posted once since I began reading ZH about 2 weeks after it launched. This is my second post.

First, the information and the style in which you provide it is commendable. Please continue.

Second, all that matters is cash flow. The problem is that a generation of individuals has been raised believing differently. And, of course, they should believe differntly given what has transpired. But, I am sure that The Market will out in the end and cash flows will matter once again.

Regards,

RRR

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 19:06 | 132455 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Reggie, i appreciate your post, but it REALLY is not a smart idea to give this lists on ZH because a) it makes you look like you are pimping your newsletter b) can have negative consequences on ZH if people trade based on your, not so subtle, recommendations       c) both ... i dont know have you seen the backlash tyler was given by some readers when they only INTERPRETED his posts a recommendations ... again i really appreciate what you do here, but you need to tone it down a little bit ...

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 21:27 | 132603 Reggie Middleton
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I appreciate the way you have approached me concerning this, but:

a) I am not giving advice or recommendations

b) I have not released the shortlist to the public, I announced it

c) The list of companies above are a list of REITs from which the short list was derived. As a matter of fact, in the list above, I stated that there was a rather strong REIT, several non-real asset REITs that do not apply, etc. etc. There were absolutely no recommendations since out of 59 REITs I didn't bother to identify which was which. It would be a stretch to attempt to find which was which unless you rolled your sleeve up and actually did the work yourself, which is a good thing - but would not have anything to do with my recommnending such.

If you go back and read the post, you should see it as I have just laid it out. I didn't edit the post or change the words, either. Often, people expect to see or read something, hence they actually read what they expect to find vs. what is actually there. Buy/sell recos appear to be allowed over the web via newsletter, but I have stated often, and will state again that that is NOT what I do. I supply research and opinion, not buy and sell recommendations.

Again, although I don't concur with how you read the post I do appreciate the non-confrontation and professional manner in whcih you communicate your perspective.

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 21:44 | 132626 Green Sharts
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Yeah, it's perfectly understandable that something with the headline "Reggie Middleton's CRE Short List" wouldn't include your short list.

"I have not released the shortlist to the public, I announced it."

Why do you think ZH readers who haven't bought one of your hundreds of sales pitches to this point would care that you've developed a "shortlist"?

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 19:56 | 132507 Howard_Beale
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I agree CB. I might add the short list IS the SRS and just buy that little bugger for $8.50 and you get the upside, minimal downside (8.5 to zero isn't much and you can always stop it out), and investment advice on ZH does have backlashes (whether advised or not). By the way CB, we are having midterms next week on previous Princeton Economics Department Heads. Hope you have your crib sheet. :)

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 21:17 | 132581 Green Sharts
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The inverse ETFs, particularly the 2X and 3X ones, are such horrible investment vehicles that even when you're right on the direction of the index you'll usually end up losing money.  On 2/1/07, the IYR (Dow Jones Real Estate) was $81.75, today it closed at $44.17, a loss of 46% not including dividends.  Being short IYR would have netted a nice profit provided you weren't too leveraged and had the stomach to ride out the volatility.  But shares of SRS, the 2X short Dow Jones Real Estate, were $62.07 on 2/1/07 and $8.53 at today's close for a loss of over 86%.

If IYR went down 100% tomorrow to 0 and the SRS achieved its daily mission of 2X inverse the index, SRS would close at $25.59 and the investor who bought it on 2/1/07 would still have a loss of over 58%.

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 17:24 | 132334 Green Sharts
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Here is the short list of REITs that I have been promising subscribers for the last week:  Commercial Real Estate Shortlist 11-2009 2009-11-16 04:20:04 530.98 Kb.

I'd guess your subscribers go to your website looking for your subscription content.  Why are links to documents that require a subscription posted at ZH?

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 12:36 | 131849 Reggie Middleton
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Which is why they weren't shortlisted.

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 11:59 | 131806 mrhonkytonk1948
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Some of these are mortgage REITs which may not belong on your initial list, especially if they invest in agency-backed MBS.  Different animal entirely from CRE!

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 11:59 | 131804 mrhonkytonk1948
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Some of these are mortgage REITs which may not belong on your initial list, especially if they invest in agency-backed MBS.  Different animal entirely from CRE!

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