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Reindexing The Unemployment Rate By America's Population Growth Yields Some Ugly Results

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One of the more peculiar phenomena in the current Great Recession has been the persistent drop in the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, after averaging around 66.5% for the past 20 years, in the past 18 months it has plunged, and despite a marginal improvement over the past several months, is still at 65.2%. This is counterintuitive when one analyzes the data side by side with the overall civilian population in the United States. An indexed chart, using the January 2000 level as a baseline demonstrates that while the US population has been climbing at a fairly steady arithmetic growth rate, the civilian labor force, which should track the changes in the actual population, has been behaving in an erratic pattern, having more to do with BLS data interpretation and the nuances of the business cycle than demographics. Which is why when reindexing data for nominal changes in the US rate of population growth, yields some troubling variations from the just disclosed 9.9% unemployment rate. Basing the adjustment to the unemployment rate on nothing but a statistical regression to the growth of America over the past ten years, would yield an unemployment rate of 12.7%. More troubling is that the underemployment rate would be a number far higher than the 17.1% disclosed for April. According to our calculations, a reading closer to 22% would be more appropriate to represent the level of real joblessness in the US. A number, which is higher than the corresponding metric in austerity-ridden Spain.

First, we demonstrate the labor force participation rate. The most recent disclosed reading of 65.2% is materially different from the 20 year average of 66.4%.

Of course, the US population isn't static. It grows constantly, and according to the BLS, the Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased from 211.4 million in January 2000, to 237.3 million in April 2010. This is a 12.3% change, which is nearly 50% compared to the change in the Civilian Labor Force, which has increased from 142.2 million to 154.7 million, or an 8.7% change.

Showing this graphically yields the following chart: an indexed comparison of these two very interlinked series demonstrates that while the civilian population has grown in a pretty much straight line, the same can not be said for the Civilian Labor force. Of course, for the US economy to be able to sustain the influx in the population without forming any surplus aberrations, these two lines have to be matched as close together as possible. To be sure, one can make the argument that as society has gotten more efficient, the need for the labor force has declined. The problem with that is that there is an increasingly larger buffer of perpetually unemployed people who will be a drag on the social safety net of America, where there is no free lunch, even in the massive field of government spending. Alternatively, many of these people work in the shadow economy where they pay exactly zero taxes.

Using the above data, and knowing the indexed differential between where the labor force probably is based on the growth of the US population, and what the BLS would like us to believe the Labor Force Participation rate is (as low as possible to keep the actual unemployment number as low as possible as well), we can determine that the real unemployment rate, using an expanded Labor Force, and thus a larger pool of unemployed people, yields an unemployment rate (U-3) of 12.7%. This is about 28.6% larger than the officially reported 9.9%.

And where the discrepancy gets really scary, is when the U-6 underemployment or "real" unemployment rate is comparably reindexed. Instead of the reported 17.1%, we obtain a number that would put even double-dip Spain to shame. Real "real" unemployment is 22% of the civilian labor force, or a whopping 34 million people who are "unemployed, marginally attached, plus total employed
part time for economic reasons." This excludes the roughly 80 million people who are not part of the labor force to begin with.

One last parting thought, or as the case may be, chart, is the distribution by weekly duration of unemployment buckets within the unemployed universe. As the chart below shows, out of the 15.3 million unemployed (U-3 definition), the average duration of unemployment has shot up to 33 weeks. The number of people who are unemployed for 27 weeks or more has hit a stunning 45.9%. At this rate, more than half of the unemployed pool will have been out of a job for more than half a year in a month or two. The skills that these workers lose due to inactivity is massive, and represents a tremendous hit to total US productivity. And, unfortunately, as the chart below shows, there are no signs that any moderation for the ever-increasing length of average unemployment is anywhere in sight.

The reason why unemployment is and will be the scourge of the propaganda machine, is that while banks may provide mortgages to individuals with below average incomes and other potential black marks, this time around, having a job will be necessary. If we are right, and if indeed almost 30-some million people have at best recourse to the occasional temp worker paycheck, this will wreak havoc with the first derivative for the US "tail wags dog" economy where housing, and untenable and enslaving housing debt more specifically, is the critical support pillar of the ponzi scheme. Without an improvement in unemployment metrics, there can be no general economic, or sustainable market, improvement, period.

 

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Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:26 | 355322 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.  Can we have a ZeroHedge survey?  I am fully employed.  For N=1, ZHU3=0%..

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:52 | 355448 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Correction...
Lies, damn lies and the BLS...

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 08:48 | 356081 Anecdotal Economist
Anecdotal Economist's picture

BLS technically is the fifth degree of deception, as in:

White Lies, Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, Government Statistics and Campaign Promises.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:28 | 355326 Apostate
Apostate's picture

Excellent chart-crunching, Tyler.

There's also the many people who are just bad workers. Drug addicts (of the wrong kind - wink wink), alcoholics, fatties, elderly people, and the overly-stressed. Those people are substandard workers, and won't be able to retire.

The politicians can say "let 'em all die," but then what? And what of these incumbents promising federal dollars that may not be worth anything?

Fraudulent firms abound, especially at the lower end. Boiler rooms (not just in finance) are all over the place to a degree that I've never seen before. Politically-connected real estate developers are throwing up buildings Dubai-style.

I mean, what the fuck, right? I thought this was supposed to be a civilized place.

Funny thing, though... last night, I ate dinner at a cheap Mexican place that I used to haunt. One of the dinner table conversations (retired boomers) were discussing whether or not to pull out of SLV.

The other table (apparently a bunch of lefty radio people) were actually discussing the Federal Reserve...

Strange times. Keep up the good work. 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:33 | 355334 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

For N=2, ZHU3=50%.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:29 | 355328 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I would like to take a moment to berate Bill Clinton.  He promised health care on campaign, and then the first thing he did in office was to do what Herbert Walker had tried to do for years; he passed NAFTA.  Bill Clinton screwed us over, and never balanced a budget except for one year; and he had to shut the government down for weeks and weeks to accomplish that.  Oh, and it was Summers and Rubin, yes Barry's Summers and Rubin, who gave Clinton the NAFTA command.  Pile on WTO, etc, etc....

"There are no jobs!" -Gerald Celente

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:33 | 355337 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

For N=3, ZHU3=66.6%

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 23:21 | 355733 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

+1000...Bill gave us all that, welfare reform, and then there was the train wreck W...surprising we even still have a country, may not for long...

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:29 | 355329 geopol
geopol's picture

The US and the world are gripped by a deepening economic depression. There is no recovery and no automatic business cycle which will revive the economy. This bottomless depression will worsen until policies are reformed. The depression results from deregulated and globalized financial speculation, especially the $1.5 quadrillion world derivatives bubble. The US industrial base has been gutted, and the US standard of living has fallen by almost two thirds over the last four decades. We must reverse this trend of speculation, de-industrialization, and immiseration. Current policy bails out bankers, but harms working people, industrial producers, farmers, and small business. We must defend civil society and democratic institutions from the effects of high unemployment and economic breakdown. We therefore demand:

1. Measures to reduce speculation and minimize the burden of fictitious capital: End all bailouts of banks and financial institutions. Claw back the TARP and other public money given or lent to financiers. Abolish the notion of too big to fail; JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Wells Fargo and other Wall Street zombie banks are insolvent and must be seized by the FDIC for chapter 7 liquidation, with derivatives eliminated by triage. Re-institute the Glass-Steagall firewall to separate banks, brokerages, and insurance. Ban credit default swaps and adjustable rate mortgages. To generate revenue and discourage speculation, levy a 1% Tobin tax (securities transfer tax or trading tax) on all financial transactions including derivatives (futures, options, indices, and over the counter derivatives), stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities, especially program trading, high-frequency trading, and flash trading. Set up a 15% reserve requirement for all OTC derivatives. Use Tobin tax revenue and a revived corporate income tax to provide immediate tax relief to individuals, families, the self-employed, and small business by increasing personal exemptions and standard deductions. Stop all foreclosures on primary residences, businesses, and farms for five years or the duration of the depression, whichever lasts longer. Set a 10% maximum rate of interest on credit cards and payday loans. Re-regulate commodities markets with 100% margin requirements, position limits, and anti-speculation protections for hedgers and end users to prevent oil and gasoline price spikes. Enforce labor laws and anti-trust laws against monopolies and cartels. Restore individual chapter 11.

2. Measures to nationalize the Federal Reserve, cut federal borrowing, and provide 0% federal credit for production: Seize the Federal Reserve and bring it under the US Treasury as the National Bank of the United States, no longer the preserve of unelected and unaccountable cliques of incompetent and predatory bankers. The size of the money supply, interest rates, and approved types of lending must be determined by public laws passed and debated openly, passed by the congress and signed by the president. Stop US government borrowing from zombie banks and foreigners — let the US government function as its own bank. Reverse current policy by instituting 0% federal LENDING with preferential treatment for tangible physical production and manufacturing of goods and commodities, to include industry, agriculture, construction, mining, energy production, transportation, infrastructure building, public works, and scientific research, but not financial services and speculation. Issue successive tranches of $1 trillion as needed to create 30 million union-wage productive jobs and attain full employment for the first time since 1945, reversing the secular decline in the US standard of living. Provide 0% credit to reconvert idle auto and other plants and re-hire unemployed workers to build modern rail, mass transit, farm tractors, and aerospace equipment, including for export. Extend 0% federal credit for production to small businesses like auto and electronics repair shops, dry cleaners, restaurants, tailors, family farms, taxis, and trucking. Maintain commercial credit for retail stores. Create an unlimited rediscount guarantee by the National Bank for public works projects to provide cash to local banks for bills of exchange pertaining to infrastructure and public works. Repatriate the foreign dollar overhang by encouraging China, Japan, and other dollar holders to place orders for US-made capital goods and modern hospitals. Revive the US Export-Import Bank. Set up a 10% tariff to protect domestic re-industrialization. Nationalize and operate GM, Chrysler, CIT, and other needed but insolvent firms as a permanent public sector. Maintain Amtrak and USPS.

3. Measures to re-industrialize, build infrastructure, develop science drivers, create jobs, and restore a high-wage economy: state and local governments and special government agencies modeled on the Tennessee Valley Authority will be prime contractors for an ambitious program of infrastructure and public works subcontracted to the private sector. To deal with collapsing US infrastructure, modernize the US electrical grid and provide low-cost energy with 100 fourth generation, pebble bed, high temperature reactors of 1,000 to 2,000 megawatts each. Rebuild the rail system with 50,000 miles of ultra-modern maglev Amtrak rail reaching into every state. Rebuild the entire interstate highway system to 21st century standards. Rebuild drinking water and waste water systems nationwide. Promote canal building and irrigation. For health care, build 1,000 500-bed modern hospitals to meet the minimum Hill-Burton standards of 1946. Train 250,000 doctors over the next decade. The Davis-Bacon Act will mandate union pay scales for all projects. For the farm sector, provide a debt freeze for the duration of the crisis, 0% federal credit for working capital and capital improvements, a ban on foreclosures, and federal price supports at 110% of parity across the board, with farm surpluses being used for a new Food for Peace program to stop world famine and genocide. Working with other interested nations, invest $100 billion each in: biomedical research to cure dread diseases; high energy physics (including lasers) to develop fusion power and beyond; and a multi-decade NASA program of moon-Mars manned exploration, permanent colonization, and industrial production. These science drivers will provide the technological spin-offs to modernize the entire US economy in the same way that the NASA moon shot gave us microchips and computers in the 1960s. These steps will expand and upgrade the national stock of capital goods and enhance the real productivity of US labor. Return the federal budget and foreign trade to surplus in 5 years or less.

4. Measures to defend and expand the social safety net: Restore all cuts; full funding at improved levels for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, jobless benefits, WIC, Head Start, and related programs. Offer Medicare for All to anyone under 65 who wants it at $100 per person per month, with reduced rates for families, students, and the unemployed. Pay for this with Tobin tax revenues and TARP clawback, and by ending the Iraq and Afghan wars. Seek to raise life expectancy by five years for starters. No rationing or death panels; savings can come only by finding cures. Quickly reach a $15 per hour living wage. Repeal the Taft-Hartley Act and affirm the right to organize. Pass card check to promote collective bargaining.

5. Measures to re-launch world trade and promote world recovery: Create a new world monetary system including the euro, the yen, the dollar, and the ruble, plus emerging Arab and Latin American regional currencies, with fixed exchange rates and narrow bands of fluctuation enforced by participating governments. Institute clearing and gold settlement among member states. Replace the IMF with a Multilateral Development Bank to finance world trade and infrastructure. The goal of the system must be to re-launch world trade through exports of high-technology capital goods, especially to sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and the poorer parts of Latin America. Promote a world Marshall Plan of great projects of world infrastructure, including: a Middle East reconstruction and development program; plans for the Ganges-Bramaputra, Indus, Mekong, Amazon, and Nile-Congo river basins; bridge-tunnel combinations to span the Bering Strait, the Straits of Gibraltar, the Straits of Malacca, the Sicilian narrows, and connect Japan to the Asian mainland; second Panama canal and Kra canals; Eurasian silk road, Cape to Cairo/Dakar to Djibouti, Australian coastal, and Inter-American rail projects, and more. American businesses will receive many of these orders, which means American jobs.

This program will create 30 million jobs in less than five years. It will end the depression, rebuild the US economy, improve wages and standards of living, re-start productive investment, and attain full employment with increased levels of capital investment per job. Most orders placed under this program will go to US private sector bidders. Because of the vastly increased volume of goods put on the market, inflation will not result.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:35 | 355342 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

For N=4, ZHU3=75%.  This is not looking so good.

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 08:59 | 356089 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

Does professional pundit count as a job?

(I jest. Geopol probably has a job too.)

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:38 | 355351 dumpster
dumpster's picture

all of the above will not be a cure..

minimum wage policys and the like , unemployment   take the life out of the system .. making it impossible for capital and workers to find its own level '

the Keynesian system is an ass backward way to solve any problem .

we keep digging this hole and think by doing the same thing only with grander ideas the problem will helped

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:31 | 355429 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

 

What are we supposed to do?

Stop digging?

We have to do something!!!

 

</sarcasm>

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 03:42 | 355956 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

"Liberalism," to quote a famous conservative, "is the most gutless choice one can make .... " All you have to do is feel concern and have good intentions.

To wit, the minimum wage: How much is enough?  How about a million dollars for every person in the land?  Who cares where it is actually coming from, what is really important is that we want to give a hand to those who truly need it.

To paraphrase another famous conservative, "Socialism works fine until you run out of someone else's money to spend."

 

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 12:56 | 356526 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

You should also ask yourself, how much less is enough. Everybody would love to be able to pay sweat-shop wages. Your system would work just fine until you're out of people to exploit.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 23:24 | 355735 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

just get the damn parasites off our back and we'll be fine...If Abe could fight civil war and build infrastructure, we can figure this out as long as banksters aren't in charge, solution will present themselves..

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:32 | 355332 dumpster
dumpster's picture

a cure in unemploymnet

 

in a division of labor society , there is no limit to the number of workers that can be employed .. What is needed is an approprite level of money wage rates

mass unemplyment , like all shortages is the product of the government thwarting the operation of the market particpents .

also by the policy of inflation , which will result in monetary contraction .... yadda yadda yadda

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:46 | 355343 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

For N=5, ZHU3=80%.  Oh boy.  I may need to seasonally adjust this. 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:33 | 355333 john_connor
Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:48 | 355365 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

I have an idea!  Let's do a consumer confidence survey instead. 

Do you, or someone in your household, feel confident that you may consume something in the next 30 days?

Yes.

N=1, ZHCCI: 100.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:58 | 355391 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

I don't get this or your other posts.  Please explain so I can share the insight.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:21 | 355410 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Read the first post. 

Of the first 5 posters, it would appear from reading their posts that only I have a job.  So ZeroHedge U-3 unemployment rate from a sampling of 5, not seasonally adjusted, is 80%, which does not correlate with the known recovery,  so I changed the survey to the ZeroHedge Consumer Confidence Index, which at 100 does correlate to the known recovery.  See, everything is hunky dory.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:25 | 355416 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

I understand your point.  Thanks.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:28 | 355421 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Are you employed?  Be honest.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:50 | 355447 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

Yes.  Thank the good Lord.  In investment banking, yet!  But not trading!

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:00 | 355554 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

You are not employed nor productive.  You are a parasite. 

How many investment bankers were there in the US in the 1800s?  In proportion to those employed at that time?

At the end of the day, all jobs are political.  The current government rations all jobs and occupations through policy.  Some jobs like doctors and nurses are directly rationed through college.  Others are indirectly rationed through ivy league degrees.

 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:16 | 355587 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

They didn't need investment bankers in the 1800's.  People were too busy being slave owners, killing Native Americans, pillaging one another, carpetbagging, building Trusts and acting as robber barons to engage in such jejeune pursuits like investment banking.  Besides, my children think I'm pretty nice.   

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 03:45 | 355957 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

In other words, investment banking is merely the natural evolution of those other fine and at-the-time economically necessary professions.

 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:47 | 355442 Hulk
Hulk's picture

reading zh a full time job, therefore 100% employment at zh

Whats that?? good point, you are concerned only with paying jobs...

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:58 | 355387 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

Thank you.  Too easy for me to forget about that excellent site!

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:34 | 355339 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Sorry but according to Yahoo, retailers are preparing themselves for a big comeback in consumer spending.  Jeez, where do you get your numbers?

Retailers prepare for consumer comeback

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:49 | 355371 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

N=2, ZHCCI: Still at 100.  Much better.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:34 | 355340 Selah
Selah's picture

The Government is committed to affordable housing.

The Government is committed to supporting high prices for homes.

Am I wrong for seeing an unattainable objective here?

 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:42 | 355354 cossack55
cossack55's picture

The first little piggy made his house out of fiat currency certificates.  The second little piggy made his house out of US treasury notes.  But the third little piggy (who looks a lot like me) made his house out of bricks fashioned from gold.  Then the big bad Goldman-Wolf .......(finish as you wish).

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:19 | 355596 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Stop that!  Don't use the word "gold".   There are several folks who do a page search for just that term so they can start the whole troll process again.  Aaaargh.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:33 | 355431 dumpster
dumpster's picture

the government is committed to affordable housing lol

as long as this is paid for by the people .

affordable housing and government is an oxmoren

government will try to do both ,,keep prices high make affordable housing possible .

result Keynesian dog poo

 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 23:27 | 355737 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

the govt does not care about affordable housing, it cares about the FIRE lobby and the banks, that wanted people to indebt themselves for houses...do you think W cared if a few percent more people bought houses? what was real idea behind "ownership society"?

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 02:00 | 355891 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

Farcism

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:38 | 355349 topshelfstuff
topshelfstuff's picture

let me stick this link here. this series of youtubes may be the most important ones to view and absorb. i hope someone will go through this, perhaps already aware, and presents the contents to ZH as an article

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYYiv0w9Vk0

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:59 | 355393 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I have begun to study this subject (Reclaiming your sovereign citizenship) and I plan on writing an article on this at some point. While the speaker in this video (which I've watched among others) lays it our nicely, every time I look into this I come back with more new questions than answered questions.

Part of the problem is that so many people in the legal community give this subject short shrift, thus making it hard to find valid legal opinions from people other than those who are promoting this subject. This always makes me nervous because once I write an article I would to think I've attempted to see all sides. It's difficult to do so with this subject for the reasons described.

I shall continue to look into this if for no other reason that because it interests me from an empowerment point of view. But I make no promises of when I will write the article.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 21:23 | 355497 Apostate
Apostate's picture

Be confident. You'll do fine. 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 21:33 | 355510 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

You might have already seen this:

http://www.freeinfosociety.com/media/pdf/3089.pdf

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:22 | 355606 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

But the Executive can still put you in jail for as long as he likes without charges.

What's the point?  Gaining sovereignty would perhaps attract attention?  So much for maintaining a low profile.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 23:32 | 355744 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

Some hairdo this guy has.....Is that his eyebrows or just part of his hair?

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 12:01 | 356399 spud
spud's picture

Thanks, a lot.

This link was my first eye opener:
http://www.usa-the-republic.com/revenue/true_history/Contents.html

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:45 | 355364 acslater
acslater's picture

Hey there. This makes no sense.

Your "correction" boils down to assuming that labor force participation stayed constant over the past decade, at the 67.5% level it started at in 2000 (a full point higher than the historical average you present). It has dropped about 2.5 points over the decade. Essentially adding those 2.5 points back into U3 has the unsurprising result of increasing U3 by about 2.5 points. However, that's more mathematical identity than insight. Further, I for one find it completely reasonable to assume that labor force participation has shrunk in the past decade, which is why the U5 and U6 numbers are a bit more revealing of the actual jobs picture.

That brings me to U6. Your correction makes absolutely no sense here, because that measure it uses an entirely different "denominator" than labor force. And even if it did use labor force, multiplying U6 by 25% would not be correct; you would end up adding 2.5 points to the final amount, same as your correction for U3.

Bottom line...this is incredibly shoddy analysis.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:58 | 355388 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The U6 denominator is labor force + marginal attachment, which is a 2.4 million number, or a neglible amount. So something which is just barely more than 1% of the labor force is "entirely different?" And the whole analysis is of course an exercise in mathematical approximation to a reality regression, which divergence is being taken advantage of by the BLS to "moderate" the real number. However, we have said nowhere that 1% labor force participation is impossible, in fact the Obama brain trust is probably feverishly working to achieve this. With the "efficiency" churned by business and the ongoing cuts, the economy may just get there. And that will really help with both the numerator and denominator.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:59 | 355456 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Soap sales.  For N=6, ZHU3=66%.  Green shooooots!

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 21:27 | 355501 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Myself: yes, continuously since 1988. Changed jobs in Feb, intentionally.

Wife: employed FT.

Brother-in-law: unemployed for 4 months ending in Jan. and changed jobs this month (voluntarily)

Father-in-law: in the 27+ weeks category.

N=10, ZHU3= 50%

(how many hedgies don't have a college degree...you'll get very different numbers if you break things down thusly)

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 21:54 | 355541 acslater
acslater's picture

2.4m MA workers are not negligible in the context of a barely 5m divergence in the labor force size. If I may reproduce your method here:

Labor Force 2000: 142.2m (67.2%)

Labor Force 2010: 154.7m (65.0%)

Labor Force 2010 assuming 67.2% rate = 159.62

U3 if denominator counted as 159.62m =12.7%.

So far so good.

In 2000 there were 1.2m marginally attached workers, and now there are about 2.4m, as you said.

LF+MA 2000: 143.4m (67.8%)

LF+MA 2010: 157.1m (66.2%)

LF+MA 2010 assuming 67.8% rate = 160.96m

U6 if denominator counted as 160.96m = 19.1%

Your adjusted U6: 22%

You "adjusted" U6 by just applying a 28% bump. That is not valid, because you failed to account for the fact that the participation rate drops to some extent because workers become marginally attached. As a result you overstate the divergence by more than double. That is what I meant when I said the numbers are entirely different.

By the way, I stand on my originally complaint that this is a meaningless exercise, since all you've succeeded in demonstrating is that labor force participation in fact , decreased, which is perfectly expected in a recession.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:43 | 355659 Transor Z
Transor Z's picture

Yes, labor force participation is expected to decrease in a recession. But the "textbook" explanations for discouraged workers dropping out are (1) retirement and (2) enrolling in school to retrain. I haven't seen the data that supports this as the reason for the current numbers. Officially, we're at about 1.2 million discouraged workers, up from 363,000 in Dec 2007. IMO this is the number to watch and the most likely culprit to have a distorting effect on U3.

If you run the Participation Rate series/graph from 1948 to 2010 I don't see how you can take such a sanguine view of what has happened during this recession. There's just nothing like it in the series:

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:16 | 355407 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

I think that your discrepancy differences are because the article changes the figures to percentages.

However, there is one statistic that might make it "slightly" less bad; the percentage of people over 60 yeaqrs of age as a percentage of the total uninsttutionalized population is increasing dramatically, and it will continue to do so for many years (baby boomers retiring). Thus this elderly group of people would be entering retirement rather than unemplyoment. This percentage increase from the average should be subtracted. It would not make that big of a change.

 Of course, the institutionalized population(nursing homes, prisons) has also increased dramatically.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:49 | 355369 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Definetly not a healthy economy or society.

People on unemplyment for more than 27 weeks is 5x wahat it was when compared to 2001 low, and 2x that of the all time record kept high in 1983. Just take a look at that omonous hockey stick in the last chart. Slashing jobs with intent to injure-10 minute misconduct.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:49 | 355370 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

While I agree with the analysis, what I am seeing in the real world here in NYC is nothing but packed bars and restaurants all weekend long spending like it's 1999.  Is it all on credit?  Or is NYC in better shape than the rest of the country.  All the blood suckers, I mean bankers, do live here.  Just an observation.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:56 | 355383 Selah
Selah's picture

I watch peoples' transactions all the time. It's 90% credit card. Maybe they are using debit cards, but I doubt that many are.

I pay cash and have been commented about that several times.

 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 23:35 | 355748 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

I go by the raw numbers, state and local tax collections....way down....so income must be down, sales must be down, assets (real estate) must be down...there may be certain types, areas, demograhpics that are buckign trend, but overall numbers are horrible...

Also, there are many who went thru great depression just fine and said they only way it affected them was by seeing soup lines etc...even a 25 precent contraction of economy leaves some economy going...

Japan has been in a long slow decline for 2 decades, and yet they have plenty of people doing well, still a wealth country..

but we are far from over, far from bottom,

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 01:03 | 355825 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

MM,

Japan does not really count. It's financial and economic reality is very far removed from any analysis you might read. Having worked in and visited there often, I can tell you from a simple feet on the street analysis that Japan is the most Bubbly economy there ever was.

QE, as perfected by them, kept people employed doing really nothing. Business success (outside of real world, like restaurants, farming, real production) lives and dies by how many people it kept employed, not how gainfully said people were employed.

Their industrial production is HIGHLY robotized (incredible) and a lot of their recent "success" is through companies like Nintendo (an absolute poster child in Japan) and Sony, that feed the want society, not the need society, if you get my drift.

That and through their QE process, imagine this. They have fed the carry trade for years which according to many has been the single largest fuel for rampant, world-wide inflation in real terms.

Imagine how much money they (the connected Kiretsu) have had access to in going abroad (I know that is a fact in India) and through deals like the Development Bank which funds mega projects that use Japanese master contractors.

Japan is a scam waiting to explode, for no othee reason than the fact that their society is rupturing, currently at he fringes, but fast reaching main-stream.

And cultural collapse is a far more powerful wave than financial collapse and will possibly lead it in Japan's case.

Same here in India.

Damn liquidity.

All cycles though, after a fall a winter must follow.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:28 | 355422 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

the unemployed were never the type to pack bars and restaurants....the vast majority of unemployed are in the lower income quintiles...the unemployment rate among the top 2-4 deciles is actually rather low....so you will not see any appreciable decline their consumer activities...

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:56 | 355436 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

There is a definite disconnect there, and it is hard to prove what is going on right now. 

I have read that the percentage of people that have jobs that are goverment (including military related) or bank related has increased quite a bit over the past 10 years These people still spending. Eventually, the gov. workers(includes politicians, teachers, firemen etc. will be cause for the municipalities and states to default. The tax receipts of the smaller percentage of private businesses that make less will not support the situation. The math does not work.

People who are defaulting on credit cards, loans and mortgages are still spending.

Extensions on unemployment have kept those in the hockey stick crowd of the last chart in the money.

Many older retired or near retirement people that did not get wiped out are still spending.

Naturally, the top 10% of the earners (includes a lot from reason #1-bankers, goverment, militaary complex) still spend.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:37 | 355439 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

Well, today it was (damn!) bankers, their families, and their unemployed ex-coworkers at the lunch.

But really, I work in CRE industry in Manhattan, a large group of landlords just bumped up their asking rent in midtown this week, of course, that is just asking price, and was obvious herding and collusion, and it might be a good sign, except I talked to a few landlords and they were using the Kushner's Big Deal landing Uniqlo as one of the reasons they bumped up retail street level asking prices.

That's not going to fly, imho

The retail sales receipts, and business tax receipts in NYC are still down in all sectors except Finance, and marketing/PR has stabilized.  We'll see if the good times are rolling again... after Obama's Paterson's and Bloomberg's tax hikes.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 21:32 | 355509 Apostate
Apostate's picture

Just so you know, there's tons of vacant (high-endish) stuff in Brooklyn. Not bad neighborhoods either.

Corcoran Group is making a push, both stealth and not-so-stealth, to redevelop with Bauhaus architecture (nicely coinciding with the MOMA exhibition). They won a court case a couple years ago that was preventing them from building tall buildings. Now they're pulling it off... it's all so half-assed and transparent, though. 

I've heard from some CRE contacts that "business" is picking up. I see a lot of pathetic-looking old people moving into new condos.

I don't wanna freak anyone out, but the Latinos are going apeshit. Plenty of street-racing, car theft, and no police action. I've never seen it this bizarre in years of living here. No gunshots yet, but tensions are high.

There was a (probable arson) in Chinatown recently. I've also seen arsons as a means to halt real estate development. These guys abusing their positions of power to gentrify at an unnaturally fast pace are probably going to face some serious trouble. 

There was even a savage killing in Prospect Park a while back. Quite shocking. That plus the terrorism scare and the weakness in Europe means this city is in for interesting times. If they do decide to cut off the banks, it will totally drain revenues dry.

I look at these white families, and I see the same kids that I grew up with - the ones who were sucking down vodka at age 12 while I was reading books. The kids in their 20s are moving into their parents' old houses and spending all their time getting drunk and otherwise being pathetic.

That culture has absolutely no future. These kids are going to get utterly destroyed by the coming environment. 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:32 | 355630 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

I'm in Socal. The transaction volume is pathetic. One broker told me, "buyers won't step up unless there is blood in the water." There just are not enough seats to go around. 

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 00:12 | 355783 Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

In my neck of the woods, it's mainly rich kids eating sushi courtesy of Daddy's credit card.

Traffic in the city is definitely lighter on weekend nights. There aren't as many people coming into the city via bridge and tunnel.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:55 | 355380 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

"If we are right, and if indeed almost 30-some million people have at best recourse to the occasional temp worker paycheck"

I would be interested in seeing an analysis of the effects of temp workers, particularly in this Great Recession.  A lot of the businesses around here are doing zero direct hire unless it is a highly skilled position.  Many penny-ante temp jobs being offered up by wage scalpers though.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 21:14 | 355488 snowball777
snowball777's picture

It has been a staple of Wal-Mart to keep their truckloaders in Fontana, CA from being able to unionize.

They simply move their contracts around from one jobshop to another with the helpless wageslaves moving along with them.

Criminal, when you consider that moving all that Chinese crap into trucks in SoCal with no AC or bathrooms is the norm.

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 00:26 | 355788 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Better the reason to make it hard if not impossible to do that, but somehow create jobs.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:58 | 355390 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture

Could those missing workers be collecting disability?

I remember an article from last year about rising unemployment. In that article there was a little aside, treated like a piece of trivia, were they mentioned a big rise in disability applications. I noted it because I thought the cavalier way the author considered disability was disappointing, like it was just a long-term form of welfare or unemployment... the brass ring to "go for" if you wanted to avoid annoyances like filing every two weeks or meeting with social workers who might want you to look for work.

I also read that disability activists consider 1 in 5 Americans to be disabled, so who knows how large that pool of ex-workers has become.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 21:12 | 355484 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I'm guessing that many people in the "under the table pharma distribution" sector don't show up in these stats either, but their money does still end up in the economy.

Your guess is as good as mine how many folk fall into that category.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:56 | 355684 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

From rumors heard, I think some Welfare agencies have been pushing their people to SSI. SSD takes a while with the first application usually being denied then a year wait.

Last year someone I know had to apply for state medical benefits. Filed an application and said they may be interested in food stamps. The head of the department called asking about documentation for said food stamps.

During the Eighties, and probably Ninties, you could barely manage to speak with a sectrtary at Social Services now department heads are making phone calls.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:00 | 355394 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

You should see what happens when you index population v. housing starts and permits.....Ike would appreciate those figures.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:28 | 355620 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

I wonder what happens when you adjust to the Shadowstat estimates?

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:05 | 355398 Miyagi_san
Miyagi_san's picture

It pays not to work...40 million get food stamps, that's a lot of Walmart retail sales. Self employed's pay enough unemployment tax to sit on the rolls forever, while taking cash work. Moral Hazard contagion bitches

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:17 | 355411 Zina
Zina's picture

"One of the more peculiar phenomena in the current Great Recession..."

Great Recession.... Hmmm.. Has it even started?

Look at the pattern:

1987 - stock market crash ("just" a financial crisis)

1990/1991 - World recession

-----------------

1997/1998 - Thailand financial crisis / Russian financial crisis

2001 - World recession

------------------

2008 - Lehman Brothers goes bankruptcy ("just" the preliminary financial crisis)

2010/2011 - ???????????????

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:30 | 355424 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

We are returning to historical norms.  Baby Boomers lived in an era that was an aanomaly to the entire history of mankind.

 

What is different is the agro-industrial sector has eliminated the private farm...

 

Ying and Yang, industrialization eventually had to lead to deindustrialization.

Le Voyage Dans La Lune was a fantasy movie... movies about stable middle class suburban lifestyles will be fantasy movies to the Boomers great grandkids.

 

The first group that can conceptualize an acceptable function to apply this surplus labor to will create and control an new paradigm.... 

God help us if the continued replay of Fascist populism wins the battleground.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:34 | 355433 Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

I recently created a similar graph of jobs vs. population going back to 1939.

It's at http://www.endofinnocence.com/2010/05/population-vs-jobs-1939-2010.html

Sorry for not mentioning it earlier.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:37 | 355640 kurt_cagle
kurt_cagle's picture

It'd be an interesting exercise to map the total employment figures to global oil production. 

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:50 | 355444 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Obama will use City Year to create many baby boomer life enders.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 20:55 | 355455 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Great post, although I only pay attention to correlating data (ADP payroll data, rising food stamp recipients, rising food bank clients, rising poverty and homelessness, and especially, the fact that this country reached critical mass in the offshoring of jobs as of July 1999...).

The fact that the stats on the GDP don't add up, somewhere between 123% to 143% when one adds up all the numbers -- but when the lack of taxes paid by the corporations and high rollers is figured in to the overall numbers -- then it balances and makes definite sense.

What was that about the progressive tax system in America, Marla?????

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 21:29 | 355504 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You don't think tax-free annuities are a progressive concept? ;)

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 21:46 | 355529 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

When one writes an article on a topic, one searches the available literature to find if someone else has already produced in the topic area or in fact the exact work.  If so then that work can be referenced and used for comparison purposes.

It is unclear to me why John William's ShadowStats.org was not referenced as he is the authority in this area, widely recognized as having done exactly this work and providing this work to the community on both a free and subscriber basis.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:18 | 355582 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Allow me to agree with TD and add a slightly different slant that, I believe, explains the enlarging pool of un(der)employed:

Each successive recession since 1975 has resulted in a larger pool of permanently unemployed. The chronically unemployed were washed out of the unemployment rate since, after some time, they simply were no longer considered as "seeking employment". 

To fully understand the crux of this theory, one must see the US economy after 1975 as a crumbling pyramid. As the US de-industrialized and turned to outsourcing the manufacturing base, successively larger cross-sections of the employment pyramid were lost beginning at the pinnacle and heading toward the base. 

Prior to de-industrialization, post war recessions as regards employment were characterized by the "Last hired, first fired" model. Simply put, as the inventory cycle reached a climax so did employment. As a recession resolved, the pool of unemployed PLUS a pool of new, cheap labor was sought and competed over by employers. Recessions did not materially affected the ranks of white collar workers, executives or professionals.

After 1982, when outsourcing became official policy as part of "supply side" structural reforms, each successive recession has left a residue of unemployable workers. New job creation during the ensuing economic expansions created fewer and fewer jobs relative to jobs lost in the prior recession. During the expansion of 2002-7, job creation never exceeded even the absolute number of jobs lost during the 2001-2 recession. 

The pattern of increasing amplitude of job loss and diminishing job creation per economic cycle leads to a crumbling pyramid that erodes successively larger fractions of jobs and successive levels of the employment echelon. Since 1982, white collar jobs became susceptible to layoffs. In the 1990-1992 period, it was called "Downsizing" and reached the executive suite. The latest recession has reached into the professions with many in the legal profession being fired including at the partner level. 

Only the top capitalist class has been immune from recessionary employment forces. However with the debasement of currency on a global scale even the capitalist stratum of the pyramid is eroding.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:59 | 355693 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Caviar Emptor a slight correction

"Under President Lyndon Johnson, the government decided individuals who had stopped looking for work for more than a year were no longer part of the labor force. This dramatically decreased the jobless rate reported by the government."

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 22:30 | 355625 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

I blame World of WarCraft.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 23:00 | 355694 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

I blame internet porn.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 23:20 | 355725 Trial of the Pyx
Trial of the Pyx's picture

lol   too true

 

and EVE online

and Travian

lots of blue pills out there

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 00:37 | 355799 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Have you accounted for shifts in the age composition of the population?  While latent growth and immigration still supply new working age people, the elderly, retired, and those near retirement are growing much faster.

I'd argue that at least a portion of the drop in the participation rate is more retirees leaving the work force than new workers entering.  The precipitous drop in the participation rate since the start of the recession/depression/whatever might partly be explained by those near retirement throwing in the towel as they look at a hopeless job market.

That said, I don't doubt that BLS data grossly understates the unemployment situation, but isn't that their job?

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 00:43 | 355802 master_of_puppets
master_of_puppets's picture

clearly, folks, the answer is taking the nation back by force, isn't it?  isn't violence the only real solution as our current government is clearly owned by the banks and mega-corps?  it is in their interest to present "solutions" as mere ideas, bait really, but simply do nothing other than status quo.  the system is corrupted from within.  there is no "reasoning" with these people.  if it's not the democrats, it's the republicans, if not the republicans, the democrats.  makes no difference whatsoever.  society at large must begin to hang the powers that be publicly and send a clear message that deviance from public interest will not be tolerated.  im *NOT* trying to incite violence as a solution but merely pointing out that it would seem to be the only real direction change will come from.  same as it ever was...

Mon, 05/17/2010 - 02:34 | 355914 ciao
ciao's picture

Talking "civilian" rates is such an oxymoron given the state of the nation and the last earnings post being clipping the ticket that annexes assets with the funny money global reserve currency.  There will be an able bodied civilian left in town soon at current rates.

We are still waiting for a historians wake up called better than Chomsky's Year 501 on the volcker Reagan destruction of the brown belt and the rise of public debt that in turn allowed the 90's bankster crew to get Bubba's yet another quick fix sign off on replace it with an exponentially larger funny money private debt impetus.

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