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http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010/05/relax-its-not-as-bad-as-you-think.html
Thank you,
Leo Kolivakis
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Went to a seminar hosted by the WSJ two weeks ago in NYC to hear this James Altucher speak in person. Here's what my observation after seeing him in the flesh: he's a dweeby douche. By the way his next project in conjunction with the WSJ is what to do in the coming Armageddon. i called him out on this in the ensuing Q&A, asking how this correlates with his perma-rosy scenarios...a lot of hemming & hawing on that one. What a douche.
Leo, I'm a Canadian too.
I understand. It's in our nature to think positive and be happy go lucky.
For example: http://www.financialpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3081970
The only reason Canadian real estate isn't as bad is, as a culture, we're behind the US by 6 months to a year so we get to minimize our losses and pretend it's not as bad here.
The Campbel government is corrupt and will fall as surely as Obama's government when the collapse happens.
Harbourcity
http://dannymendlow.wordpress.com/2010/05/28/canadian-banks-doing-fine-i...
Canadian Banks Doing Fine! (In Related News, Canadian People Getting Fucked By Canadian Banks)
I’m completely disgusted with hearing about how terrific Canadian banks are doing. You want to know who’s not doing so well? Canadian people! You know why? Because they are having every penny squeezed out of them by Canadian banks. Canadian citizens, faced with insurmountable monthly costs, are being forced to go into record levels of debt to… you guessed it, Canadian Banks! The banks and financial experts tell the newspapers and media that this is because we are all freewheeling and dealing, blowing cash on anything we can, just for the hell of it! The truth is this: The cost of living in cities like Vancouver and Toronto is so ridicuously out of proportion with what the people in those cities actually earn it is staggering. People can’t make rent, they have to borrow money, they go into debt. They want to go to school to obtain an education and get a better paying job, they have to borrow money, they go into debt. This isn’t some nation wide frat party. This is people just trying to exist.
But all you see in the news is report after report about how strong our economy is, and how well our banks are doing. How we’ve “weathered the storm” and what a shining example we are for the rest of the world. If we actually think we’ve avoided the kind of total economic collapse that has rocked the rest of the world, it’s time for a serious wake up call… we may be a little behind, but the crisis is coming to Canada. First of all, the housing market will crash, that much is inevitable. Don’t believe me? See if you can tell the difference between a Vancouver crack shack and a million dollar mansion. So that will cripple construction, hammer the banks and real estate… and generally devastate many a profession based around this hyper inflated market. Then there’s the little fact that these levels of “personal” debt (you know, that of real, actual people, not just institutions and governments) are 100% unsustainable. Here’s the reality of our economy: A dual income couple with no dependants living in a one bedroom apartment, can just barely make rent with a little left over for food and transportation to and from work. In order to pay bills and BREAK EVEN (that’s no extra cash for anything, no savings, no paying off of debt, no visits to the dentist… we’re talking basic existance here) they HAVE TO go into debt, with the hopes they will one day make more money in the future. They won’t. Why? Because employers are routinely and systematically stripping away whatever is left of the dignity and decency of their employees. Increasingly, you see job postings offering less and less money, with more and more qualifications and experience required. How exactly is someone paying off a 4+ year degree supposed to survive on $12/hr? More credit and debt of course! Gotta keep those banks well paid. We’re told we should feel lucky to have any work at all. Meanwhile, employers are hacking away at any semblance of workers rights, acting as if a lunch break or paying for holidays is optional in this country. They think they can not pay overtime and fabricate lies to take money off of paycheques. They are demanding outlandish hours with no notification of how many days, or how many hours, you will be working. Or perhaps they’ll offer you 20 hours a week at minimum wage and then have the audacity to demand you are available every day, for weeks in advance, when they only post the schedule one week in advance. They try to control your home life and ‘extra-curricular activities.’ They have no respect for you as an individual, and the work force remains silent, passively accepting the worsening conditions because they should just feel lucky to have a job, right? Shut up, put up, and take it Canada.
You know why they believe all of this? Because they are right. They can and will get away with anything they want. You know why they behave this way? Because they can. They know they are winning, and we are losing, and we won’t fight back. We have no means to do so. The laws are shifting more and more in favor of the businesses and the banks, because we, the actual people, have no voice. No one speaks for us. No one cares about us. Which is funny considering… WE ARE THE COUNTRY! This is OUR country. “We” is not some fringe group of outcasts. “Workers” are not a small portion of the population. This is not the middle ages. We are not serfs. We are not slaves. But only if we don’t allow ourselves to be. Right now, we are slowly being enslaved with the same ancient methods used by many oppressive civilizations of the past, and no one is saying a word.
Sure, our ‘leaders’ will carve out a nice little bit of rhetoric for us in one of their speeches, but it never translates to anything meaningful. We are just bags of flesh whose only purpose is to pay every cent of our wages to the bank. Don’t fool yourself, your rent doesn’t go to the landlord, it goes through your landlord, straight to the banks. The banks get it all in the end. That’s why they’re doing so well. We get nothing. We get to exist, barely, as if we should be grateful that these rich, evil institutions allow us to do so. Grateful that they have a constricting choke-hold on our lives. Make no mistake, we will never be truly free again as long as they continue to do so. People would much rather lash out at anyone who dare criticize and make obvious observations, regurgitating what they hear on the news. They say the problem is that we’re all out buying new houses and yachts and cars because of low interest rates. We’re all reckless, freewheeling spenders. The reality is that they are, and we are taking the blame. We have been successfully divided and conquered. The average citizen blames other citizens. They lash out at each other, dismissing any criticism of how the banks are operating as ludicrous. No newspaper or magazine dares report the truth of what real Canadian people are going through… they are all owned by big businesses who are owned by the banks. They say what they are told to say. They blame the greedy consumer. There is no reporting of the real struggles of real people. There is no article on people having their rent increased by $50 to $100 a year while their wages stay the same. There is no talk of desperate people having to take out loans to pay for dental work because their benefits were severed and their wages slashed in half. There are no articles on abusive employers and students being manhandled and burdened with massive debt loads straight out of high school. There is only distractions, more blame piled onto the overworked and underpaid Canadian just trying to survive. There is talk of a farcical ‘jobless recovery’ and ever more news, that the banks are doing just fine with all our money.
At least someone is doing fine with it, because the Canadian people, are not.
Also here in Canada we have had our share of mad cow desease, which it has been claimed has been eradicated. Now, it is apparent that it has mutated to mad bull desease.
Harbourcity
You have your share of angry Canucks. Most of them would fit right in on ZH.
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/
poor leo... masochism is difficult for others to understand... that formula capital guy, have you reviewed his public interviews? he's right down there with cramer... a broken clock is right more often...
You know, at first I thought this was just the other side making an argument but then I saw the "Bill Achman loves citigroup". Made me want to vomit. Leo someone pumping citigroup is obviously looking through rose colored glasses, I don't even know who the other guy is but my guess based on Bill Achman is that I really don't care. Anyone loving citigroup as a stock pick needs a fucking labotomy.
Ouch!. A labotomy is excising a woman's vulvular pee flaps.
Wow,
Leo, this is the worst rip session I've seen in a long time.
Don't take it personally, man. Really. Think about it this way, commisserating is especially comforting when the other person can desribe your gut wrenching pain better than you can describe it yourself.
Altucher is a complete whacko.
Mistaking the consumption of the extend'n'pretended for a recovery is a terrible idea.
If he could point to dropping unemployment, growth outside the stockmarket, or anything else that isn't a rosy comparison to the depths of the recession, he might have a point, but this hypothesis is ludicrous beyond belief.
Come out here to greece, bucko, and see all the empty hotels. Shit my friend just got back from Maiorca and she said the same was happening there. Easy for you to think this way since you are way over in Canada with all your water, electricity, forests, gold, nickel, cheap drunk beer drinking skanks....(you make me sick) But I'll tell you somthing, this hi Beta economy here is the eyes to the future and the future is lookin mighty bleak (who needs to look at M3? I can seee the results without even looking at the chart)
have a nice bbq while I go gather up some worms for lunch
Leo I haven't been coming to ZH long enough to know each person story but after reading your post I thought immediately that you were a government worker or had very good prescriptions. I found your blog and sure enough most your blogs are about pensions and all your links are to government agencies. You are as credible as an addict.
+1
candide ,, "the best of all possible worlds "
With Leo playing Dr. Pangloss.
Leo, it seems you are just paraphrasing Jim O'Neill here. Boring.
I find it stunning that people are discussing statistics of any kind when the only thing that matters is the degree of currency manipulation by central banks on any given day. We'll see what happens when the 2/10 spread continues to flatten and the Euro continues to weaken. Other than that, I don't see armageddon either, just asset liquidations.
Please forgive me, I am studying economics, but I think it will take the rest of my life to figure out just the basics.
Can you tell me, If you just see "asset liquidations" is that why all the businesses are closing?
Anyone?
The little business that was left is going.
Is this what they mean by "consolidation" of power into the hands of the elite? Are the elite corporations the ones buying out all of the other small businesses who are liquidating? How can Germany get away with keeping all of their small little bakeries and floriests, cafe's and jewelers,stationers, .... etc. They don't have Wal-Mart. How can we get that in the U.S.? And, more importantly, why hasn't it been done?
Read this:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/ecri-leading-indicato...
and especially this:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/atlanta-fed-asks-how-...
THANK YOU Rocky, You are a true pal. !!
Leo- that Nutty Professor is WRONG, after reading 4 paragraphs. Pure garbage. The only GDP has been gov't stimulus, homes, cars, appliances, all falling off a cliff as those programs end. Consumer credit is flat to falling, savings near 3.5% with wages stagnant. Those temp jobs are because companies are NOT rehiring permanent because they expect a double-dip, which already started, and small biz is already being hit with 50%+ healt insur premiums.
The S&P is making lower lows with 200-day resistance. End of month windowdressing obvious on Thursday, institutions basically are out. Look at volume patterns. Not to say we can't bounce to 1100, but 1040 will be revisited.
Next week the ISM could be ugly, after Phili number, and your Nutty Professor forgot the Census hiring ramped, making Friday's job number even more suspect for April, I suspect backing-out Census, Friday could be flat employment.
Meaning, dangerous trading next week. On low volume, the HFT algos are seeking out inverse etf shorts and destroying them, with 8 swings on Friday, only the most nimble will make money.
That brand of sunglasses he wears are Canadian. The brand that states, "the housing crisis won't touch us", "our economy will successfully lead the G20 out of recession", "our economy is resistant to global pressures", "we will ride on the coat-tails of the US printing press to prosperity". Like most Canadians - those are the rose-colored glasses he see's the world through.
And when we get some form of card check thru the back door of the NLRB, another million or so real jobs will head out almost immediately. Establishment " economists" have an amazing inability to match cause and effect.
I meant May census hiring. They ramp it up in May-June, over 200K Census hiring I believe, so headline will be bogus. Market now seeing thru that.
It may be better than I think but still worse than I ever expected.
It could be much better than I think and still be pretty damn dismal.
I guess good news is, things could be much worse than they are.
Leo, I'm disappointed. You pulled a CNBS maneuver by quoting a guy whose livelihood depends on people being in the market. That guy has 55 million under management. I'd rather listen to Hendry, with billions at stake.
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/advisor/6152--Formula-Capital-Management...
I'm beginning to think you are employed by the "Chinese Solars." You run a PR campaign for them, trying to get recognition on your blog and others to gain traction in search ratings. It's the only thing that makes sense in light of the facts facing China and the world.
Leo, I appreciate the work you put in to your analysis, but results are important, and your results are akin to a junk shot. "The world is better than you think"? How can that be? We live in a system that MUST constantly expand yet we have reached the tipping point where credit is being destroyed. The second you reach that point, where you cannot expand the system, it's game over - not "better than you think". For most people, I would submit it is much, much worse than they think.
That is it really. Escape velocity hasn't been achieved and the good ship economy is sliding back to earth to be loaded up with fuel QE2, however the old empty fuel tank QE1 remains attached and is heavy.
So here's the good news:
1. Trust is lost, but once you get used to the idea that governments and banksters are lying to you about everything, instead of only a few things, then you can start all over in the jungle.
2. The real economy, here on the ground, and not in the Disney World of Wall Street and Washington, London and Brussels, is firing on a few pistons. But it has not come to a complete halt. That's good news.
3. When an American crisis occurs the President assembles a team to keep the oil off himself, damn the nation. Keep honing the caricature of pretending to be Presidential. At least he shows up on TV so everyone can see what weak, irresponsible pretend leadership is all about. Now you are armed with knowledge, that is good news.
4. Nearly every thinking citizen now understands that the "banks"- American, European, and Canadian are self-dealing. When they say buy- you now know they are selling behind your back. Armed with knowledge- that's good news.
5. Housing starts have not dropped to zero, that's good news. Foreclosed former homeowners can now live rent free in their homes, that's good news. It has a side benefit that their struggling neighbors have stopped making their mortgage payments too,once they have cottoned on to the new world order. Plus, the extra benefit is the money that once went to make that mortgage payment, is now going to buy crap at Walmart, keeping retail and distribution numbers up domestically, and employing China citizens. For some, this is good news.
Anecdotically, I have concluded most giddy, perennial optimists already have it made, collect a government check, and/or are selling something.
I, for one, am buying Chinese solars, when I am feeling dippy.
Now, I am going to put on my crash helmet and take Cave girl to a movie.
You are always entertaining Leo.
We got some more good news down here in New Orleans as well. Hurricane season is starting, and some prominent meteorologists are assuring us that although the Gulf will probably be completely full of oil by the time the first storm hits, it's unlikely that the oil will be picked up off the surface and rained back down on us.
Altucher's a little media whore. He also seems to be long-only.
I recall him on TSC's board, NosePickr.com, calling bottom after bottom all through 2008. He appears to have pollyannishness the way some people have bad breath.
- Here are his calls on 7/17/2008:
http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/top-stocks-for-the-week-james-altucher-thestreetcom/
ETN: 74.08, closed Friday at 69.95.
NOK: 27.31, closed Friday at 10.12
RS: 65.75, closed Friday at 45.91.
APC: 62.19, closed Friday at 52.33
You're down on every single pick. Of course, he never told you when or if he's sold them. I guess that's one of the rules of punditry - always maintain plausible deniability.
- So, OK, he's a long-only pollyanna (as opposed to your characterization of the 'gloom-and-doom bear.' Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and look at his picks ahead of one of the great rallies in market history:
What actually started me thinking about this was how utterly wrong Altucher has been was his call that the stimulus bill would sky the heavy construction stocks. I happened to find two of his picks:
http://electionstocks.com/2009/01/16/more-altucher-picks/
ASTE: 29.80, closed Friday at 29.87
LNN: 33.28, closed Friday at 34.17.
Wow, don't spend your vast gains all in one place.
Meanwhile, SPY: 85.06, closed Friday at 109.37.
Conclusion: You are far better off indexing than listening to this buttplug.
- Bullish on 7/23/2007. The abyss is right behind him, he can't even hear the wind howling behind him.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10369361/1/seven-reasons-to-be-bullish-now.html
- Media Whore's top picks for 2010. How's that working out?
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/james-altucher's-top-stocks-for-2010-391533.html
Starting from 01/04/2010 to present -
AGO: 22.62 -> 16.80
WCG: 37.15 -> 27.26
STEC: 18.34 -> 12.08
Again, you're better off indexing.
Do they let this guy use combs and bobby pins, much less manage money? Having watched the retail investors on NosePickr lose tons of money at his behest, Altucher's media appearances need to have a warning label.
wow! if your documentation is correct (i didn't check) it makes this guy part of the dumb money/contrarian indicators. maybe hussman's aunt minnie is right.
Total lobbyist
Sorry Leo.The doom is here.Lots of gulf cookouts ruined by the smell of crude oil.
I am strongly in favor in reducing oil use dramatically, and I am also happy about the ultracapacitors that will make solar and wind much more viable.So there is hope.
But our currency WILL fail.
The market WILL self destruct.
It will be far worse...before we can rebuild it.And we have to be careful that truly evil people don't cement their hold on power during the transition.I don't need the glasses, but thanks anyway Leo.
nonsense. With the glasses on, its all puppy dogs and rainbows from here on out.
Yup, Leo is smoking crack and lots of it.
To each his own, but what irks me is the non-confrontational, and often flattering, manner Leo treats posts by Tyler, which have the same conclusions as many of the users with whom Leo argues feverishly.
It's not Leo's conclusions that bother me (even if I disagree with them), it's the two-faced approach toward treating people differently based on their status, rather than their line of thought.
Play Loud, Play Often!
Don't Tread on US:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFKzbN_0WLw
These mists covered mountains are a home now for me.
Good one.
Alternative energies are only interesting in the way that a step might be taken to exclude emerging markets from taking over. They are less entangled into the conventional style energy sources and therefore apter to jump in.
Same with cars and all the rest.
Leo - I like you but if I wanted to visit Pension Pulse then I would not be here at ZH. Why not put your post here?
Too much work, different format that doesnt export well.
but I will comment on the picture Leo has posted here
are those dead dolphins washing up on that oil coverd beach?
They're not dead. They're pining.
Nice pink tits. But why did he edit out the nipples?