This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Relief Wells Are Ahead of Schedule … But Will They Work?
Blog
By all reports, BP is ahead of schedule in drilling the relief wells. In fact, BP will likely complete the first relief well this month.
The team leader for BP’s relief wells – Boots and Coots – is 40 for 40 in successfully stopping oil spills using relief wells (around 6:10 into video).
Many oil drilling experts are hopeful that BP’s relief wells will succeed on the first try. I hope and pray that they do.
But the relief wells are not a slam dunk, especially at such extreme depths.
“If
it was shallow water, it wouldn’t be anything serious,” said Don Van
Nieuwenhuise, director of Petroleum Geoscience Programs at the
University of Houston.
CBS News states:
“It’s not a solid dunk,” said Eric Smith, a deepwater drilling expert. “It’s going to take some work.”
Smith
said two things could go wrong. The cut could miss the broken wellbore,
and BP would just try again, or engineers could drill into hidden gas
pockets.
“When you are drilling into that you have to be careful of a kick, a blowout in the relief well,” Smith said.
George
Hirasaki, a Rice University professor in chemical and biomolecular
engineering who was involved in the Bay Marchand oil containment effort
for Shell, said engineers have to be very careful when drilling into
any formation that has hydrocarbons, which poses the risk of the same
type of explosion that destroyed the rig.
Recently-retired Shell Oil President John Hofmeister said
that the well casing below the sea floor may have been compromised,
which could render success from the relief wells less certain:
[Question]
What are the chances that the well casing below the sea floor has been
compromised, and that gas and oil are coming up the outside of the well
casing, eroding the surrounding soft rock. Could this lead to a catastrophic geological failure, unstoppable even by the relief wells?
John Hofmeister: This is what some people fear has occurred. It is also why the “top kill” process was halted.
If the casing is compromised the well is that much more difficult to
shut down, including the risk that the relief wells may not be enough. If
the relief wells do not result in stopping the flow, the next and
drastic step is to implode the well on top of itself, which carries
other risks as well.
Hofmeister subsequently told MSNBC:
The question is whether
there is enough mechanical structure left at the base of the reservoir
to hold the cement when they start pouring cement in [from the relief well].
***
The more oil we some coming out, the more it tells you that the whole casing system is deteriorating. The fact that more oil would be coming out rather than less oil, would suggest that the construction within the pipe is offering no resistance whatsoever, and we’re just getting a gusher.
Indeed, Hofmeister told Chris Matthews today that he hopes the relief well has a 50-50% chance of being successful [see my blog for video; I removed here to correct formatting problems].
Yesterday, the Guardian quoted the government official in charge of oil spill response as warning:
“There is a chance – a slight chance – they could nick the wellbore,” Thad Allen, the coast guard commander, said. …
A
nick risks starting a new small leak or possibly even a collapse of a
section of the pipe given that it was damaged in the explosion in ways
still not fully understood.
***
The intercept could be
complicated if it turns out that the oil is flowing around the pipe,
between the pipe and the cement of the well bore.
And Spiegel previously reported that there are many dangers with completing the relief wells:
Independent experts warn that relief wells, like any well, are not without risk. “More
oil could leak than before, because the field is being drilled into
again,” says Fred Aminzadeh, a geophysicist at the University of
Southern California. Ira Leifer, a geochemist at the University of
California in Santa Barbara, voices similar concerns: “In the worst
case, we would suddenly be dealing with two spills, and we’d have twice
the problem.”
***
As straightforward as it sounds,
this approach [i.e. killing a spill by drilling relief wells] has not
always been easy to implement in the past. The disaster in the Timor
Sea, for example, ended in a debacle. It took engineer five tries to
even find the borehole under the sea floor. Shortly before the end, the
West Atlas oilrig went up in flames, after all.
***
[David Rensink, incoming president of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists] is particularly concerned that BP,
in drilling the relief wells, will penetrate into precisely those rock
formations in which extreme pressure and temperature conditions
facilitated the April blowout in the first place. Gas bubbles and
gushing oil from the depths are real possibilities. “Any relief or kill
well needs to be drilled with more caution than the first well,” Donald
Van Nieuwenhuise, a geologist at the University of Houston, told the
New Orleans daily Times-Picayune. “You don’t want a repeat performance.
As CBS notes, even BP is no longer expressing full confidence:
BP leaders have showed supreme confidence in their relief wells.
“I fully expect that the well itself will be shut off in August,” said Bob Dudley, BP’s point man on the spill.
But recently? More caution.
“The drilling of relief wells, there’s nothing guaranteed,” Dudley said.
Indeed, the veteran engineer in charge of the Ixtoc Gulf oil well disaster in the 1970’s states that – given the pressures involved – a single relief well might not be enough:
Carlos
Osornio, a Mexican engineer in charge of Pemex’s deepwater drilling
operations during the Ixtoc crisis, said BP may ultimately find that
both relief wells are needed to contain the gusher.
“One relief well may not be enough to contain the high volume (of oil flow), but two will work for sure,” he said.
Similarly, former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich previously noted:
A petroleum engineer who’s worked in the oil industry tells me [that] a recent blow-out off the coast of Australia required five pressure relief wells to successfully shut it down.
In addition, as I’ve previously pointed out, BP’s oil gusher is producing a lot of gas.
Bloomberg has an article today adding some details:
The
cap will help BP contend with the particularly strong upward force
created by the vast natural gas reservoir that feeds the Macondo well,
[David Pursell, a managing director with Tudor, Pickering, Holt &
Co. in Houston] said. The new seal may be able to restrict the amount
of leaking mud, creating back-pressure that will more successfully
contain the gas, he said.
***
The Macondo well produces about 100 million cubic feet of natural gas a day. [I had estimated 290 million cubic feet a day, based on the U.S. Geological Survey's flow rate group's estimates of the oil flow - and see this - and the flow rate group's calculation
that 2,900 cubic feet of natural gas are escaping for every barrel of
oil.] “That’s a big well, anywhere in the world,” Pursell said. Natural
gas in a well can provide the same effect that gas in a bottle of soda
does, forcing liquid — in this case oil — out of the top at a higher
speed.
The strength of the gas could push the mud up and out of the well, he said.
To
prevent the mud from rushing out of the well, BP will try to find a mud
that is heavy enough to outweigh the pressure of gas coming out of the
well, said Les Ply, a Houston-based geologist who has participated in
kill operations in the past.
An appropriate balance must be
struck — if the mud is too heavy, the rocks around the reservoir can be
cracked or overburdened, he said. “Mud will take the path of least
resistance. You want the path to be up the well bore,” he said.
Finding
the right pressure and mud weight can be challenging for killing a well
at this depth, because there’s an additional pressure dynamic created
by the 5,000 feet of water bearing down on it, said Van Nieuwenhuise.
“It’s
water, so it won’t patch itself,” he said. The goal will be to slow the
mud flow enough to plug the well adequately so that cement can be
poured in and set, Van Nieuwenhuise said.
Hopefully, the relief wells will work. But if not, I wouldn’t recommend nuking the leaking well.
- advertisements -
They will never give you a projected date because it may require multiple tries and it is obvious that if they predict a date and miss it the meme will be "BP LIES AGAIN". Remember the howls of rage that a projected "worst case potential if everything was removed from the wellbore" became "BP lied when they estimated the flow rate at less than this number".
I can't find the reference but I read somewhere yesterday that they were 250' of the planned intercept but had one more liner to set. The liner will likely require two days to run, cement and test. Then they will drill ahead ~100 ft and range. So probably still a few days out.
i found an article that mentions the end of july as the target date
but i still find it hard to believe these relief wells are anything less than 3 months behind schedule
Considering they haven't been drilling the relief wells for 3 months, that would make it difficult for them to be 3 months behind schedule. BP has said 3 months, the CG has said 3 months, the White House has said 3 months, everyone has said August. We shall see.
I can't find it now, but I read something yesterday that said they drillers were within 30 feet of the planned depth before they turn and begin drilling to the main shaft. The writer expected they would cover the 30 feet by the end of the day. I think I read that on theoildrum.com. At any rate, they are close now to the point where the major time consumer will be getting set up with all the materials needed to drill into the main shaft.
I don't know the exact number for the footage left to drill. However, it is hard to know exactly from the numbers you might see. Are the reports of the measured depth, which includes the "horizontal" leg, or is it a calculation of the True Vertical Depth. However, they are on the way down now. At some point they will run another casing string or liner before trying for an intercept and that will take a couple of days, at least.
Probably not.
Guess you are going to have to travel far to get a decent fresh sea food dinner.
The Oligarchs don't mind. Just a bit more cost for them.
http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0707/ap-impact-gulf-awash-27000-abandoned-we...
AP IMPACT: Gulf awash in 27,000 abandoned wellsMore than 27,000 abandoned oil and gas wells lurk in the hard rock beneath the Gulf of Mexico, an environmental minefield that has been ignored for decades. No one — not industry, not government — is checking to see if they are leaking, an Associated Press investigation shows.
The oldest of these wells were abandoned in the late 1940s, raising the prospect that many deteriorating sealing jobs are already failing.
The AP investigation uncovered particular concern with 3,500 of the neglected wells — those characterized in federal government records as "temporarily abandoned."
Regulations for temporarily abandoned wells require oil companies to present plans to reuse or permanently plug such wells within a year, but the AP found that the rule is routinely circumvented, and that more than 1,000 wells have lingered in that unfinished condition for more than a decade. About three-quarters of temporarily abandoned wells have been left in that status for more than a year, and many since the 1950s and 1960s — eveb though sealing procedures for temporary abandonment are not as stringent as those for permanent closures.
GW, you put out the largest quantity of unfounded FUD imaginable. Perhaps you get your jollies this way but your credibility to anyone with a working brain is zilch. Of course, like any other troll on the net, you could care less about content and accuracy and are focused upon gaining eyeballs and creating controversy. Frankly, you do a great disservice to the good name of George Washington but then you don't care about that either.
It's amusing how the worst trolls and purveyors of disinformation wrap themselves in names referencing classic American ideals around here.
From what I understand (I have a bit on the inside) the crews working the relief wells are the best available. If that is true, they will achieve their goal. The real experts in the industry possess incredible skill and do not compromise.
My money says they pull it off.
They are within 20 horizontal feet of the original well
and a thousand vertical feet above their bottom kill intercept target.
The advantage of bottom kill is the pressure works for them, taking the mud cement up to seal the leaks.
BP CDSs down and BP stock +24% above its lows with news BP has been talking to sovereign funds to avoid diluting equity...
Per my post below, I thought I read somewhere yesterday that they were within 30 vertical feet of their bottom kill intercept target. If I can find a link that clarifies this, I will post it. Or perhaps you have a link for the 1,000 foot claim.
BP stated ca. 260' from intercept depth as of 7/5
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_response/STAGING/local_assets/downloads_pdfs/ReliefWellDiagram07052010.pdf
There may be more current estimates/updates since then. Getting very close now, in any case.
Just to funny:
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/834121-rare-1970s-bp-board-game-promises-oil-thrills-comes-back-to-haunt-them
More information that indicates BP is not to be trusted. I truly hope the relief well attempts work, as this well could flow at a high rate for many years (from 27 - 55 years).
Also I am not sure how the relief well attempts are going to help the open fissures that are believed to be in the near area that are leaking from the formation.
http://www.antemedius.com/content/bps-well-may-leak-55-years-or-more-gul...
CNN: 128 BP oil cleanup workers sickened in Louisiana; Told not to go to public hospitals (VIDEO) By oilflorida, on July 7th, 2010http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/cnn-128-bp-oil-cleanup-workers-sickene...
Sanjay Gupta, CNN, July 6, 2010:
If you actually know of a fissure, post the location of such fissure. I have not read a report of anyone finding such a fissure. However, should there be one, when the source of the supply is killed, the leak will stop. It takes pressure to move the oil out of the fissure as it must overcome the 2500# water pressure.
The Guptra comment is more of the wild speculation. Why does the guy not get the answer so that he has something to really report. You know, maybe BP wants them at the facility they set up because they can get them attended to faster?
Or could it be that there is a special disposal unit sitting at the back door? After all, it is BP you are writing about and you would expect them to employ every method of hiding a death.
The "florida oil spill" web site is a scam website set up to generate revenue for the operators. The more trash they can collect, they more eyeballs they capture for viewing it. It is just another example of how some people will attempt to benefit from a bad situation. One of the Headline articles deals proclaims FOUR deaths at Gulf Beaches. Guess what, the storm generated large waves and undertows. The people ignored the warning flags on the beach and went in anyway. Particularly tragic was the drunk woman who took the child into the water. But it serves the purpose of that web site to run the headline as if it was associated with an oil leak.
I'd still like to read the link for the 14% methane concentration you claimed was in the air at Venice, La. It is simply impossible.
"I'd still like to read the link for the 14% methane concentration you claimed was in the air at Venice, La. It is simply impossible."
I never said 14% methane in Venice,
What I said was 14% LEL of METHANE of which I have posted to explain as replies before and this is the 4th time I am repeating this.
Do you understand the difference of 14% Methane and 14% LEL of Methane?
Posted and not sourced.
For the 4th time, please post a credible source for this claim.
Do you have a source or is it just more rumor and innuendo?
Whack-A-Mole
More than 27,000 abandoned oil and gas wells lurk in the hard rock beneath the Gulf of Mexico, an environmental minefield that has been ignored for decades. No one — not industry, not government — is checking to see if they are leaking, an Associated Press investigation shows.
http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0707/ap-impact-gulf-awash-27000-abandoned-we...
The story is a bit misleading. When a well is abandonded it is plugged first. There are prescribed methods of performing the plugging. Whatever the producing formation was is not producing and that is why it is plugged. Reservoir pressures have declined from what they were originally and are not able to provide the lift.
It was a solid layer of rock over the reservoir that kept the deposit in place in the first place. After producing the oil the production string is pulled and the remaining steel tube (well) is loaded with cement, generally in several different sections, to prevent anything from comming up the tube. I suppose a leak could be possible, however it would be of the nature of the naturally occuring seeps.
If Greenpeace would be worth anything, they should be checking it out.
That's why I never donate to those fuckers.
It might also be because I like the taste of whale meat and the misses likes to wear her baby seal coat, but never the less, Greenpeace SUCKS!
GW, I was unable to read the entire article due to errors in the HTML code. The scrolling, for example, is not wrapping sentences properly. I tried to read the article using MS explorer and Firefox, with similar results. Please correct and repost.
... Chrome too ...
Me too GW. The print is doubling on itself.
Same here. Couldn't finish it, but the point is clear. One (rhetorical) question: If Boots and Coots did experience a well control event, would it be made known to the public? I highly doubt it at this stage.
Until GW fixes the HTML, you can highlight the text you want to read (as if you were going to copy/paste it). This should get you thru to the end.
You can also click on 'Printer-friendly view'.
@CD
Thanks for this as well. I never noticed that on the page before!
@umop
Excellent!
The issue of the compromised casing has a lot of traction in the scientific community, of course it is all speculation. The concern relates to gas within the sandstone formations above the location of the bottom kill. Once the relief well is completed it should reduce the pressures such that containment of those escaping gases would be an easier task. Natural processes would eventually reduce the flow of the gas.
The relief well will be successful though it may take a few tries, early projections suggested three months and we are just about there.
Of concern is the ongoing media management and I suspect that when the relief wells are completed there will be much self congratulations and back patting for a job well done, and then there will be silence followed by an all out PR campaign on how nature will be quickly taking care of the oil and gases that were released. The reality of course being that a few million gallons of crude along with plumes of methane, oil and other gases will be wreaking havoc with the Gulf ecosystem and local economies for months and years to come.
EDIT and so it begins with this new Gov website
http://www.restorethegulf.gov/index.shtm
Good psot GW. I find it interesting no one wants engineers around until they are necessary. Go get the cheap foreign labor, they can do for pennies on the dollar. Cut corners, all in the name of profit. Oh sh*t, we just killed 11 workers and ruined an ecosystem. What went wrong?