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Remember The MIT "All Is Safe" Paper...
Confirming, yet again, that MIT Ph.D.'s (such as the FRBNY's Brian Sack) are among the most dangerous around, a paper made the rounds yesterday by one Josef Oehmen titled: "Why I am not worried about Japan’s nuclear reactors." In the ensuing 48 hours, anyone who listened to Josef's advice (who incidentally is not a scientist) and was also "not worried about the reactors" has paid an exorbitant price, possibly up to and including their lives. We demand that MIT School of Nuclear Science and Engineering clarify their position on the matter, and make sure that incidents such as this, where Oehmen's paper received top billing due to its perceived "endorsement" by MIT and has since been completely discredited, never recur.
Full paper as was originally posted:
I repeat, there was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity from the damaged Japanese reactors.
By "significant" I mean a level of radiation of more than what you
would receive on - say - a long distance flight, or drinking a glass of
beer that comes from certain areas with high levels of natural
background radiation.
I have been reading every news release on the incident since the
earthquake. There has not been one single report that was accurate and
free of errors (and part of that problem is also a weakness in the
Japanese crisis communication). By “not free of errors” I do not refer
to tendentious anti-nuclear journalism – that is quite normal these
days. By “not free of errors” I mean blatant errors regarding physics
and natural law, as well as gross misinterpretation of facts, due to an
obvious lack of fundamental and basic understanding of the way nuclear
reactors are build and operated. I have read a 3 page report on CNN where every single paragraph contained an error.
We will have to cover some fundamentals, before we get into what is going on.
The plants at Fukushima are so called Boiling Water Reactors, or BWR
for short. Boiling Water Reactors are similar to a pressure cooker. The
nuclear fuel heats water, the water boils and creates steam, the steam
then drives turbines that create the electricity, and the steam is then
cooled and condensed back to water, and the water send back to be heated
by the nuclear fuel. The pressure cooker operates at about 250 °C.
The nuclear fuel is uranium oxide. Uranium oxide is a ceramic with a
very high melting point of about 3000 °C. The fuel is manufactured in
pellets (think little cylinders the size of Lego bricks). Those pieces
are then put into a long tube made of Zircaloy with a melting point of
2200 °C, and sealed tight. The assembly is called a fuel rod. These fuel
rods are then put together to form larger packages, and a number of
these packages are then put into the reactor. All these packages
together are referred to as “the core”.
The Zircaloy casing is the first containment. It separates the
radioactive fuel from the rest of the world. The core is then placed in
the “pressure vessels”. That is the pressure cooker we talked about
before.
The pressure vessels is the second containment. This is one sturdy
piece of a pot, designed to safely contain the core for temperatures
several hundred °C. That covers the scenarios where cooling can be
restored at some point.
The entire “hardware” of the nuclear reactor – the pressure vessel
and all pipes, pumps, coolant (water) reserves, are then encased in the
third containment. The third containment is a hermetically (air tight)
sealed, very thick bubble of the strongest steel. The third containment
is designed, built and tested for one single purpose: To contain,
indefinitely, a complete core meltdown. For that purpose, a large and
thick concrete basin is cast under the pressure vessel (the second
containment), which is filled with graphite, all inside the third
containment. This is the so-called "core catcher". If the core melts and
the pressure vessel bursts (and eventually melts), it will catch the
molten fuel and everything else. It is built in such a way that the
nuclear fuel will be spread out, so it can cool down.
This third containment is then surrounded by the reactor building.
The reactor building is an outer shell that is supposed to keep the
weather out, but nothing in. (this is the part that was damaged in the
explosion, but more to that later).
Fundamentals of nuclear reactions: The uranium fuel generates heat
by nuclear fission. Big uranium atoms are split into smaller atoms. That
generates heat plus neutrons (one of the particles that forms an atom).
When the neutron hits another uranium atom, that splits, generating
more neutrons and so on. That is called the nuclear chain reaction.
Now, just packing a lot of fuel rods next to each other would quickly
lead to overheating and after about 45 minutes to a melting of the fuel
rods. It is worth mentioning at this point that the nuclear fuel in a
reactor can *never* cause a nuclear explosion the type of a nuclear
bomb. Building a nuclear bomb is actually quite difficult (ask Iran).
In Chernobyl, the explosion was caused by excessive pressure buildup,
hydrogen explosion and rupture of all containments, propelling molten
core material into the environment (a “dirty bomb”). Why that did not
and will not happen in Japan, further below.
In order to control the nuclear chain reaction, the reactor operators
use so-called “moderator rods”. The moderator rods absorb the neutrons
and kill the chain reaction instantaneously. A nuclear reactor is built
in such a way, that when operating normally, you take out all the
moderator rods. The coolant water then takes away the heat (and converts
it into steam and electricity) at the same rate as the core produces
it. And you have a lot of leeway around the standard operating point of
250°C. The challenge is that after inserting the rods and stopping the
chain reaction, the core still keeps producing heat. The uranium
“stopped” the chain reaction. But a number of intermediate radioactive
elements are created by the uranium during its fission process, most
notably Cesium and Iodine isotopes, i.e. radioactive versions of these
elements that will eventually split up into smaller atoms and not be
radioactive anymore. Those elements keep decaying and producing heat.
Because they are not regenerated any longer from the uranium (the
uranium stopped decaying after the moderator rods were put in), they get
less and less, and so the core cools down over a matter of days, until
those intermediate radioactive elements are used up. This residual heat
is causing the headaches right now.
So the first “type” of radioactive material is the uranium in the
fuel rods, plus the intermediate radioactive elements that the uranium
splits into, also inside the fuel rod (Cesium and Iodine). There is a
second type of radioactive material created, outside the fuel rods.
The big main difference up front: Those radioactive materials have a
very short half-life, that means that they decay very fast and split
into non-radioactive materials. By fast I mean seconds. So if these
radioactive materials are released into the environment, yes,
radioactivity was released, but no, it is not dangerous, at all. Why? By
the time you spelled “R-A-D-I-O-N-U-C-L-I-D-E”, they will be harmless,
because they will have split up into non radioactive elements. Those
radioactive elements are N-16, the radioactive isotope (or version) of
nitrogen (air). The others are noble gases such as Xenon. But where do
they come from? When the uranium splits, it generates a neutron (see
above). Most of these neutrons will hit other uranium atoms and keep the
nuclear chain reaction going. But some will leave the fuel rod and hit
the water molecules, or the air that is in the water. Then, a
non-radioactive element can “capture” the neutron. It becomes
radioactive. As described above, it will quickly (seconds) get rid again
of the neutron to return to its former beautiful self.
This second “type” of radiation is very important when we talk about
the radioactivity being released into the environment later on.
What happened at Fukushima I will try to summarize the main facts.
The earthquake that hit Japan was 7 times more powerful than the
worst earthquake the nuclear power plant was built for (the Richter
scale works logarithmically; the difference between the 8.2 that the
plants were built for and the 8.9 that happened is 7 times, not 0.7). So
the first hooray for Japanese engineering, everything held up.
When the earthquake hit with 8.9, the nuclear reactors all went into
automatic shutdown. Within seconds after the earthquake started, the
moderator rods had been inserted into the core and nuclear chain
reaction of the uranium stopped. Now, the cooling system has to carry
away the residual heat. The residual heat load is about 3% of the heat
load under normal operating conditions. The earthquake destroyed the
external power supply of the nuclear reactor. That is one of the most
serious accidents for a nuclear power plant, and accordingly, a “plant
black out” receives a lot of attention when designing backup systems.
The power is needed to keep the coolant pumps working. Since the power
plant had been shut down, it cannot produce any electricity by itself
any more.
Things
were going well for an hour. One set of multiple sets of emergency
Diesel power generators kicked in and provided the electricity that was
needed. Then the Tsunami came, much bigger than people had expected when
building the power plant (see above, factor 7). The tsunami took out
all multiple sets of backup Diesel generators.
When designing a nuclear power plant, engineers follow a philosophy
called “Defense of Depth”. That means that you first build everything to
withstand the worst catastrophe you can imagine, and then design the
plant in such a way that it can still handle one system failure (that
you thought could never happen) after the other. A tsunami taking out
all backup power in one swift strike is such a scenario.
The last line of defense is putting everything into the third
containment (see above), that will keep everything, whatever the mess,
moderator rods in our out, core molten or not, inside the reactor. When
the diesel generators were gone, the reactor operators switched to
emergency battery power. The batteries were designed as one of the
backups to the backups, to provide power for cooling the core for 8
hours. And they did. Within the 8 hours, another power source had to be
found and connected to the power plant. The power grid was down due to
the earthquake.
The diesel generators were destroyed by the tsunami. So mobile diesel
generators were trucked in. This is where things started to go
seriously wrong. The external power generators could not be connected to
the power plant (the plugs did not fit). So after the batteries ran
out, the residual heat could not be carried away any more.
At this point the plant operators begin to follow emergency
procedures that are in place for a “loss of cooling event”. It is again a
step along the “Depth of Defense” lines. The power to the cooling
systems should never have failed completely, but it did, so they
“retreat” to the next line of defense. All of this, however shocking it
seems to us, is part of the day-to-day training you go through as an
operator, right through to managing a core meltdown. It was at this
stage that people started to talk about core meltdown. Because at the
end of the day, if cooling cannot be restored, the core will eventually
melt (after hours or days), and the last line of defense, the core
catcher and third containment, would come into play.
But the goal at this stage was to manage the core while it was
heating up, and ensure that the first containment (the Zircaloy tubes
that contains the nuclear fuel), as well as the second containment (our
pressure cooker) remain intact and operational for as long as possible,
to give the engineers time to fix the cooling systems. Because cooling
the core is such a big deal, the reactor has a number of cooling
systems, each in multiple versions (the reactor water cleanup system,
the decay heat removal, the reactor core isolating cooling, the standby
liquid cooling system, and the emergency core cooling system). Which one
failed when or did not fail is not clear at this point in time.
So imagine our pressure cooker on the stove, heat on low, but on. The
operators use whatever cooling system capacity they have to get rid of
as much heat as possible, but the pressure starts building up. The
priority now is to maintain integrity of the first containment (keep
temperature of the fuel rods below 2200°C), as well as the second
containment, the pressure cooker. In order to maintain integrity of the
pressure cooker (the second containment), the pressure has to be
released from time to time. Because the ability to do that in an
emergency is so important, the reactor has 11 pressure release valves.
The operators now started venting steam from time to time to control the
pressure. The temperature at this stage was about 550°C. This is when
the reports about “radiation leakage” starting coming in.
I believe I explained above why venting the steam is theoretically
the same as releasing radiation into the environment, but why it was and
is not dangerous. The radioactive nitrogen as well as the noble gases
do not pose a threat to human health. At some stage during this
venting, the explosion occurred. The explosion took place outside of the
third containment (our “last line of defense”), and the reactor
building. Remember that the reactor building has no function in keeping
the radioactivity contained.
It is not entirely clear yet what has happened, but this is the
likely scenario: The operators decided to vent the steam from the
pressure vessel not directly into the environment, but into the space
between the third containment and the reactor building (to give the
radioactivity in the steam more time to subside). The problem is that at
the high temperatures that the core had reached at this stage, water
molecules can “disassociate” into oxygen and hydrogen – an explosive
mixture. And it did explode, outside the third containment, damaging the
reactor building around. It was that sort of explosion, but inside the
pressure vessel (because it was badly designed and not managed properly
by the operators) that lead to the explosion of Chernobyl. This was
never a risk at Fukushima.
The problem of hydrogen-oxygen formation is one of the biggies when
you design a power plant (if you are not Soviet, that is), so the
reactor is build and operated in a way it cannot happen inside the
containment. It happened outside, which was not intended but a possible
scenario and OK, because it did not pose a risk for the containment. So
the pressure was under control, as steam was vented.
Now, if you keep boiling your pot, the problem is that the water
level will keep falling and falling. The core is covered by several
meters of water in order to allow for some time to pass (hours, days)
before it gets exposed. Once the rods start to be exposed at the top,
the exposed parts will reach the critical temperature of 2200 °C after
about 45 minutes. This is when the first containment, the Zircaloy tube,
would fail. And this started to happen. The cooling could not be
restored before there was some (very limited, but still) damage to the
casing of some of the fuel. The nuclear material itself was still
intact, but the surrounding Zircaloy shell had started melting.
What happened now is that some of the byproducts of the uranium decay
- radioactive Cesium and Iodine - started to mix with the steam. The
big problem, uranium, was still under control, because the uranium oxide
rods were good until 3000 °C. It is confirmed that a very small amount
of Cesium and Iodine was measured in the steam that was released into
the atmosphere. It seems this was the “go signal” for a major plan B.
The small amounts of Cesium that were measured told the operators that
the first containment on one of the rods somewhere was about to give.
The Plan A had been to restore one of the regular cooling systems to
the core. Why that failed is unclear. One plausible explanation is that
the tsunami also took away / polluted all the clean water needed for the
regular cooling systems. The water used in the cooling system is very
clean, demineralized (like distilled) water. The reason to use pure
water is the above mentioned activation by the neutrons from the
Uranium: Pure water does not get activated much, so stays practically
radioactive-free. Dirt or salt in the water will absorb the neutrons
quicker, becoming more radioactive. This has no effect whatsoever on the
core - it does not care what it is cooled by. But it makes life more
difficult for the operators and mechanics when they have to deal with
activated (i.e. slightly radioactive) water.
But Plan A had failed - cooling systems down or additional clean
water unavailable - so Plan B came into effect. This is what it looks
like happened: In order to prevent a core meltdown, the operators
started to use sea water to cool the core. I am not quite sure if they
flooded our pressure cooker with it (the second containment), or if they
flooded the third containment, immersing the pressure cooker. But that
is not relevant for us. The point is that the nuclear fuel has now been
cooled down. Because the chain reaction has been stopped a long time
ago, there is only very little residual heat being produced now.
The large amount of cooling water that has been used is sufficient to
take up that heat. Because it is a lot of water, the core does not
produce sufficient heat any more to produce any significant pressure.
Also, boric acid has been added to the seawater. Boric acid is "liquid
control rod". Whatever decay is still going on, the Boron will capture
the neutrons and further speed up the cooling down of the core.
The plant came close to a core meltdown. Here is the worst-case
scenario that was avoided: If the seawater could not have been used for
treatment, the operators would have continued to vent the water steam to
avoid pressure buildup. The third containment would then have been
completely sealed to allow the core meltdown to happen without releasing
radioactive material. After the meltdown, there would have been a
waiting period for the intermediate radioactive materials to decay
inside the reactor, and all radioactive particles to settle on a surface
inside the containment. The cooling system would have been restored
eventually, and the molten core cooled to a manageable temperature. The
containment would have been cleaned up on the inside. Then a messy job
of removing the molten core from the containment would have begun,
packing the (now solid again) fuel bit by bit into transportation
containers to be shipped to processing plants. Depending on the damage,
the block of the plant would then either be repaired or dismantled.
»
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Wow... epic fail
Yes, and unfortunately none of these paid spin doctors are ever held to account for their lies.
Ah yes, the fine art of running at the mouth. Reminds me of when Lehman was a screaming buy, right before it failed.
MIT's institutional credibility has been degrading for the last 15-20 years. MIT was run by MIT graduates for basically its entire existence, until Paul Gray stepped down. Once the outsiders were brought in to "manage" it, it took a nose dive. Now it is a corporate-run, One-World-Government, PC-infested swamp of uselessness.
Sad.
That is just horrible. A few facts about Japan for investors in this blog post http://bit.ly/dOWfho
Did MIT encourage the Japanese to go to the beach yesterday?
This is so overblown. The short term risk is uncovered fuel rods in pools that have leaked. But compared to Chernobyl, this is not a huge deal.
agreed. But what else will sensational media grab onto?
There has been a container damage at reactor 2 as well... and given that the n°2 core had already melted, there's nothing between the exterior and the rad
What makes you think it's over?
+over 9000SV/hr
overblown? really? why? Did you know the 40 years worth of spent fuel rods are stored right next to the reactors in their own pump driven cooling pools? do you think those pump are running after the quake, flood and explosions?
Whoops, time to restate your ignorant position.
God bless you my friend. I'll take your money any time. I've wondered who was on the other side of my trades the last few days.
True on the fact this is not a Chernobyl event, but this is truely a troubling situation for the people in the vacinity of the plant.
Correct. People love sensation, so this guy is getting trashed. I'd love to know if anyone knows the mrem levels in Japan.
There was an explosion at a nuclear power plant. It is a field day for the press.
It doesn't come much bigger than explosions at nuclear power plants, and due to 99.9% of the public having very little understanding of physics, chemistry and science, in their minds the explosion automatically means that mutant godzilla will be born and we are all going to die.
All the fear is coming from overnight PH'ds in nuclear physics.
This tradegy is infact a testament to the safety of nuclear power. As far as disaster scenarios go what happened in Japan was amongst the worst.
It's sad that Germany is shutting down plants. Did components in the Japanese plants fail under normal conditions? No. Did that fail under exteme conditions? No. The plant failed under catastrophic conditions. Unless the Germans have just found some new tectonic plates under their plants, they are just throwing fuel on the fire of ignorance.
Exactly! What's to be worried about? So there's a few reactors with no controls or cooling systems. Desperate workers onsite trying to sustain a continuous flow of sea water into the cores, while periodic hydrogen explosions blow apart the equipment and facilities and expose the workers to radiation. Oh, and the 40 years of mostly spent fuel sitting in leaky pools that will burn and spew poison into the atmosphere.
If the "magna cum laude's" say they have it all figured out and there's nothing to worry about, why shouldn't we trust them? So there's a few recent examples like the financial crisis where they had it all figured out, or the fact that they designed these systems to begin with. Is that a reason not to trust?
In the same league as Bernanke and inflation is not a problem. People are losing their lives because of him as well
Agreed Racer - Good Point - with one additional comment radiation poisoning occurs much faster than Fiat poisoning...
Choose the experts that you listen to very carfully.
Surgeon when you have an appendicitis = good
IVY leaguers that blows smoke up your butt = bad
How about a nuclear physicist when you have a nuclear issue?
PS - MIT is not ivy.
How about a mechanical engineer (Oehman)? Feel better now?
http://twitter.com/#!/josefoehmen
Air drop his sorry ass on top of the hottest reactor in Japan.
Tyler and ZH Members,
In your opinion what implications could have and USD/JPY below historical 80.00 level?
Appreciate,
I dont Trust any official communicate, Remember Greece is not in default, neither Ireland...Portugal , Spain... ALL Politicians = BIG SCAM
This guy is full of BS.
The SFP on unit #4 is reported to be boiling.
The SFP on units #5 and 6 are both showing increasing temps.
The workers are not attending to unit #4 due to radiation hazard.
When the unit #4 SFP boils dry there will be a further fire and explosion and release of radioactivity.
Between unit # 4, 5 and 6 there is a total of 120 years of spent fuel. Unit #4 is going to burn, likely with the next 24 hours and 5 and 6 will follow.
The fate of Tokyo for the next 25,000 years will depend on which way the wind blows.
[edit: add url]
http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1300189582P.pdf
The BS dude spends his time ranting about the core and the containment.
He makes no mention of the fact that this design of BWR has a 40 ft x 40 ft by 20 ft spent fuel pool (SFP) sitting up on the top floor of the secondary containment building. This SFP is open to the atmosphere. The SFP on unit #4 contains 40 years worth of spent fuel assemblies. On unit # 4 the SFP coolant is boiling away. This will result in the fuel bundle cladding releasing H2 resulting in fire/explosion/radiation release.
The SFP on units #5 and #6 are both reported to have increasing temps. They will follow the same path as unit # 4. That is 120 years worth of spent fuel bundles burning, exploding and generating a radioactive plume and the 36 million inhabitants of Tokyo are less than 100 miiles downwind.
The dude from MIT is incompetent to run an open air tanning salon which is what the island of Japan is about to become for the next 25,000 years.
You want "Change you can believe in?" The Japanese have got it.
To put the above in perspective.
US Homeland Security spends billions a year to defend against what?
The big fear is a "dirty bomb" smuggled into an urban area and detonated.
What the Japanese are facing is exactly that.
I do not know the tonnage represented by 120 years of spent fuel bundles but this will be in the 100s of tons of dirty fuel sitting 100 miles upwind of one of the most densely populated urban areas on the planet.
And MIT? They say "Don't Worry, Be Happy"
MIT my ass.
I do not know the tonnage represented by 120 years of spent fuel bundles...
as of Mar. 2010 there were 1,760 tons of spent Uranium fuel stored at the Daiichi facility.
shown on page 4 of this pdf
http://www.nirs.org/reactorwatch/accidents/6-1_powerpoint.pdf
The Unit 1 and 3 spent fuel pools are most likely without cooling or makeup capability. If they are not dry now, then they will be soon. In addition, since the pools are open to the atmosphere and are at the top floor of the reactor buildings which have been blown off in huge explosions, wouldn't it be possible that the fuel assemblies, and perhaps even the fuel pool structures themselves, have already been damaged by falling debris. Unless the internal structures of the pool are maintained to provide adequate spacing for the fuel assemblies, there is a probable risk of criticality occuring in the pools if water remains. If the water is drained or boiled off, then the decay heat from the fuel assemblies will fail the cladding, internal structure of the pools and then the bottom liner rendering the pools completely useless. A fire in a spent fuel pool means that the worst has occurred.
I don't really think he's wrong? It's not like there has been (or there's really a chance of) a life threatening release of radiation.
If I lived in Japan, I'd be much more concerned about aftershocks, tsunamis, and even chemical plants more than I'd be concerned of the radiation
Have any PMs for a friendly wager?
Of course if you lived in Tokyo you would be wagering much more than PMs.
"aftershocks" ? "radiation" ?
No chance one might influence the other then?
Over the past few days a German friend has been telling me about the problems. Somehow, Germany is getting news before the English speaking world.
According to him, technicians have apparently quite the control rooms at the reactors because the radiation is too high.
I'd post a link, but I don't have one. Just keep an eye out.
I suppose this is good news. You can't lose control of something you're not trying to control.
Interesting.
My blood pressure rose considerably last night (GMT) with all of the guff about how "everything will be just fine"
How can someone be so stupid as to include "aftershock" and "radiation" in the same sentence and not make a link?
If there is a 7+ aftershock the entire plant could end up on the beach.
People get together,anyone who cares about basic problem of our existance FED invited to vote in our poll and read out latest comments on yahoo FED article about QE3:
http://trendybull777.blog.com/2011/02/21/hello-world/
Voting poll is waiting for you click,take 5sec to make your choice,we must to reach critical level to be recognised by others to tove too!Thank you and keep all us together regardless government effords,we appreciate if you link us to other polls,blogs,sites to let people or your friiends to vote FED existence
Yes, your poll is going to fix everything. Thanks for staying relevant.
I am Chumbawamba.
Chumba is back!
only experts that exist are those working on site..everyone else is guessing..russia needed tons of concrete to cap a hot reactor..I do not know what Japan will do to stop the release of radiation..we have many old nuke power plants that would have been taken off line years ago if new nuke tech was built..but that never happened..unintended consequences indeed..thank you green movement your roll in preventing building of safer nukes should not go unnoticed.
Why did they think it was safe to put nuclear power stations on fault lines???
Because it gives the Investment Bankers the opportunity to purchase Credit Default Swaps on the Utility company - this way the 'NEW NORMAL' can be achieved - make standards profits from exobitant fees & commission to finance a deal no matter how bad it is & when it fails receive a windfall - Gotta ask yourself "What would Lloyd Blankfein Do?"
There are lines all over and near most parts in Japan, just like cali.
The planners don't give a shit, because they have planned to never live any where near these facilities.
Pollyanna, says it's OK. People raid the stores when a little snow storm is coming.
The market sentiment says it is a big deal, for which it is.
Absolutely agree..Mit should release a formal apology ASAP...
....and while they're at it, maybe they should apologize for Bernanke (who received his PhD in economics from them in 1979).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke#Education
In their stupidity, Business Insider ran with this article, which is probably why ZH will always be better than those libtards at BI.
Business Insider is still fishing for a buyout as a reward for the propaganda bias. I have been to their site twice in the past year.
MIT apology:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ocv5WdBmSok
You guys are too pessimistic and that is UNAMERICAN!!
Worse case scenario is dumping concrete to the FUK-U-ISLAND Nuke reactors (there are only 10 of them,so US Navy can handle it easy!)
Then the vol will come in big time and everythign will be BID again.
NOW BTFD!!
http://www.competence-site.de/Josef-Oehmen
BTFD! Market way overshooting on downside (at least for uranium miners).
What is happening to all of the sea water that is being pumped in? Is it becoming contaminated and then flowing back into the ocean? I have watched way to much TV over the last few days and I haven't seen this question addressed.
That's a question no one wants to ask. Please move along, nothing to see here.
boiling at ~102 DegC
"The external power generators could not be connected to the power plant (the plugs did not fit). "
Wow.
Un.
Fucking.
Believable
I was really surprised by this statement too...
They have a fucking nuclear disaster on their hands, and "their damn power plugs don't fit".
This is either complete BS, or he is trying to dumb it down for the rest of us...
The forgot to buy the latest $40 dongle from Apple.
Tyler,i don't need no stinkin' apology.This Business Insider paper will become a fuel rod. T'will be first crushed 'n rolled and finally shoved into my wood burning stove.The half-life will of course be a few minutes.
He's not worried, GREAAAAT!
We were looking for volunteers to go over there and help.
In fact I'll buy his ticket.
FAIL X 10,000
Anybody know the current mrem in Japan? Near the plants. Curious.
Who needs academics to with their bullshit physics when you have CNN and Fox news explaining exactly how many will be affected and how horribly they, and possibly you, will die.
Fear - that's how you keep an audiences attention - not fancy book learning.
He really is sorry....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSHaCzb3yYk
I lost respect for professors years ago when I saw a couple of physics profs from Brigham Young U. ponder over a piece of equipment that appeared extra-terrestrial to them. It was a turbine generator! -68
Were they wearing their Magic Underroos at the time?
If there is one thing the world has learned from Fukushima, it is that Japanese Government Officials have a keen fashion sense. Those light blue industrial coveralls Chief Cabinet Minister Yukio Edano and Prime Minister Naoto Kan have worn at their press conferences are absolutely perfect. Futuristic, authoritative but without being pretentious. The are so 21st century and should replace the business suit and tie.
true Dat. I was thinking "Are we not men? We are DEVO."
Simply add a disclosure to all emissions of BS from universities, like the ones analysts are required to provide.
MIT is up to their arses in Chinese and industry cash. I've known some very good people from there, but it's a quagmire as far as conflicts are concerned. Just provide the grant and cooperative agreement funding sources so folks understand the sourcing.
Call me when there's a breach of the core.
OK, we'll let you sleep through the waste pool fallout.
I can think of another Josef who thought he was a scientist.
I dont know when ZH moved from being about the truth to fear-mongering, but it seems to have happened...
Radiation hit 0.81 micro-sieverts and then quickly dropped to 0.075
micro-sieverts. Normal is 0.0375. 20 micro-sieverts is a x-ray.
Nausea/Vomiting/Disorientation is experieced at 1 sievert (1,000
micro-sieverts), 0.5 sievert (500) is considered high. Death is at 5
sieverts.
Radiation level in Tokyo:
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/radiation-level-falls-in-tokyo/story-e6frfku0-1226022049726
About radiation:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-quake-radiation-idUSTRE72E14R20110315
Sorry, but 1000 micro-sievert == 1 milli-sievert.
But also, the levels got far, far, far above "safe levels". I think it was 3000 times safe levels for a while.
Iodine 131 has been released into the atmosphere...arguably the most dangerous of isotopes to mammalian cells, causing mutations and outright deaths of cells. It's half life is 8.02 days thus 16.04 days for complete decay to stable xenon 131. In the mean time it is emitting gamma (81%), beta and xray radiation.
Caesium 137 has also been released with a half life of ~30 years..but it degrades as a beta emitter..not quite as dangeous, but can do damage over time. MIT is trying to limit the media damage since they have a huge investment in nuclear research as well as large grants....they don't want that cut off.
That is not how half-lifes work. In 8 days half is gone. In another 8 days half of that remainder is gone - rinse and repeat halving every 8 days until it is undetectable. Given how small atoms are and how good instruments are that can be a long time.
It's funny, Oehmen makes the same kind of mistake in his original post. He says, oh yeah, the Richter scale is logarithmic, and that an 8.9 earthquake is 7 times as strong a an 8.2 earthquake. Apparently, he thinks that because 1 greater in the Richter scale is 10x stronger, then .7 greater in the Richter scale must be 7 times greater. Which is not exactly how log scale works...
(10^8.9) / (10^8.2) = 5.01187234
By the same thinking, 10% inflation over 10 years leads to a doubling of prices (or money supply, depending on your definition of inflation).
Nikkei down 12% overnight says it's not overblown.
Academics are a wonderful group. Give them money and they will espouse any statist point of view imaginable. When proven wrong are they disgraced? No. They are tenured.
Exactly correct.
Been there, seen that.
To be fair, some academics, scientists and engineers are honest. However, they are fired, re-assigned, marginalized, shoved aside or character-assassinated and others who will support and sign off on anything in exchange for their paycheck replace them.
ZeroHedge is cutting edge and the tip of the spear of the TRUTH movement, and this is yet another example of its excellence.
Good 'ole Josef just happened to have his comments picked up and distributed by just about every Main Stream Media outlet in the world (baahh baaahhh black sheep), which soaked up and distributed, unchallenged, his every hollow word, while ZeroHedge is one of the few (maybe only?) channel(s) of information that has exposed his commentary for the paid-for-propaganda (courtesty of the nuclear industry) and bullshit that it is, exposed Josef as a non-scientist 'spokesman' at that, and that has had the decency and balls to call on MIT to repent and put a policy in place from having this type of epic fail from ever happening again.
Even the universities are corrupted, sucking on the teat of industry and commerce, willing to exchange their integrity for fiat - sad.
Main Stream Media, you are a useless and even dangerous relics from a bygone area. Prepare your industry for the ashbin of history.
Universities, you need to hang your collective head in shame for compromising your soul on the altar of money, before it's too late for you (and the time draws near as you are captured by Big Pharma & other industries).
To the Federal Reserve Bank, London Central Bank and criminally culpable central bankers the world over: Your lies and deceit will be known by even average citizens before not much longer.
Personal credibility committing suicide everywhere this morning. Throw Leo Apatheker onto the heap of asshats...who just claimed that the whole Middle East thingy is...wait for it..."contained." Another desperate member of the oligarch class...explaining to you that paper shares are the path to success and wealth, even if said shares set off geiger counters.
How many more today? Ben Bernanke himself even? People say the dumbest shit!
I have no doubt that the oligarchy will attack the web, Cdad, before all is said and done, for it is becoming the exclusive modality by which hundreds of millions can get any accurate information on serious social, political, economic and environmental world events, and it really does threaten the power of the corrupt elite.
The digital pen is far more mighty than the sword.
Everyone should already have contingency plans in place for being able to stay in contact with their network of real sources of information when they try and pull the plug, and I do hope that efforts are accelerated in terms of creating an internet that is impervious to governmental meddling.
Agreed with comments above that this is being blow far out of proportion.
The fear of radiation is one of the few remaining superstitions in our modern age; a real and present danger, to be certain, but one that is so misunderstood that it has become a playground for modern-day witch doctors who shamelessly play on the general public's fears and ignorance in order to drive influence and money toward themselves and their organizations.
The professor clearly got this one wrong, but I would still rather listen to a PhD who has actually taken coursework in physics than an entirely uncredentialed political activist who just happens to be running a non-profit (taking your donations now!) preaching the evils of radiation (well, other than the stuff used in hospitals, presmably).
The real tragedy of this is that the real tragedy has been overshadowed. We have 10,000 dead, if not more, hundreds of thousands homeless and uncounted millions at risk of disease, financial ruin, etc., and instead, the media and the political activists are in hyperdrive over the possibility that a few nuclear power plant works an some hapless fish may have their risks of contracting cancer marginally increased. Yes, the reactor poses a risk and should be a focus for those who are capable of addressing that risk, but in the meantime, there are hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people who are in desperate need to help.
Right on! This has turned into a feeding frenzy for alarmists.
If it was a hydroelectric dam breach/flood we would hear the same level of hysterical alarmism. It seems not to be about the tech used for generating power that allows progress but something else that bothers these people. It's not about the dead bodies, destroyed families and cities either... What is their agenda?
P-ermanent H-ead D-amage
I suggest Dr. Oehmen get his nose out of the books and step into the real world -- where shit happens.
Mr. Oehmen's scenario is seemingly his expected outcome. Well I'm sorry Mr. Oehmen, but we need more assurance than that. We need to protect the downside as it is catastrophic. If doing that embarrasses a few politicians, or hurts someone's business model or blunts the careers of some nuclear engineers, then so be it. The people come first.
I'm as concerned as the next guy, but I've got to say, this is the best paper I've read thus far that explains factually how a reactor works and what to expect during emergencies. Not sure what all the bashing is about. I do agree that the first line on there not being a "significant" release of radiation is quite speculative and arrogant.
For speculative discussion purposes, what would happen if an EMP was detonated over our nuclear plants? Would this result in flucations?
This post claims that the MIT post is a case of astroturfing. I don't know if it's true, as I've read other nuke fanboys similarly and consistently downplay the extent of the crisis. Look at TEPCO. I also don't know why the post is only found in cache, but folks in Germany are claiming that the "don't worry be happy" post was industry astroturfing.
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?hl=de&q=cache:geniusnow.com/2011/03/15/the-strange-case-of-josef-oehmen/&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=
Yes, this whole thing is so overblown. They've fixed everything now, and it's all good as new, and there's no clamp down on the media reporting the reality, assuming they can even ascertain it.
Coolant in fourth Fukushima reactor might be 'boiling away'
The noble MIT Professor/Spokesman-for-Nuclear-Industry surely knows his stuff:
Japan nuclear crisis eclipses Three Mile Island, nears 'Chernobyl' -- Fifty workers and fire hoses are all that remain at Japan's Fukushima I plant to cool three hot reactors and six pools containing spent fuel rods – perhaps for months to come.Hard to take a critical stance on various opinions right now when none of us except the handful of workers at the site really know what is going on. So far, the reactors haven't exploded like Chernobyl, which is good.
+1
I'd rather listen to MIT about the reactor situation than ZeroHedge or CNN.
MIT info is at this link: http://mitnse.com/