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Reminder: CIT Is Most Widely Held Euro CDO Reference Obligor, Held By 1,053 CDOs, 66% Of Total
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Let the games begin.
As a taxpayer I think it means we might get AIG'd. Crap... why do we only get to play games where I lose?
This news should be running on a ticker at the bottom of the screen during everyone's favorite t.v. show.
oh yeah, cuz 99.9% of the people watching desperate housewives know what CIT is.......nevermind what a cdo is.
Let the games begin?
CIT filing for BK means that whoever (aka the most powerful) needed to acquire or get rid of certain positions vis a vis CDO's has already done so.
The game is finished. This is the closing act.
Heh. Just like AIG paying 100% on Goldman "no-material-exposure" Sachs was the end of anything.
The money is not the game. The game is politics and survival and the accumulation of power.
It's an end-game, and that game is just recently getting started, and when the music stops we'll finally know something.
Thank you for playing. Do play again.
cougar
The money is not the game. The game is politics and survival and the accumulation of power.
Money and power are fungible.
The game is power.
Sounds like a green shoot, no?
Oh sure.
It's the new normal. You BK into insane profitability. They'll be back and hire 65,000 desk jockies next quarter. Um... you did go all-in CIT last week like you were told to, right?
No? OK, you better have some more of the Kool-Aid then. Rational self-preservation is like so last century.
you rang?
/i smell cake...
Enough of the green shoot oneliners. Get more creative.
The over-under on mark2market is 2%. However, a new Fed ruling allows banks to extend and pretend so long as the company's letters remain in the alphabet. And since we need "C" for crash, collapse, calamity, crony-capitalism, etc., banks remain good to go.
This is just incredible.
Like I said on Friday night; this sucker may look innocent enought but there is enough CDO and CDS paper bullcrap out there to take a big chunk of the system down.
Watch the regional banks tomorrow.
I'm just sayin.....
noticed that is the 2nd time you mentioned the regionals...care to point out some and some more detail on potential hits? thanks.
Deadhead:
Forget about picking individual regionals, they trade like Desperate Housewife Psychos.
Some go up, some go down, for no particular reason other than 100's of hedge funds are all gaming one issue or another.
Just stick with KRE or RKH.....
thx robo. edit....i don't trade individual names but watch the pieces to trade the whole.
Think.
CRE is a victim of CIT's going Tango Uniform.
CRE in the Southeast and West was already a crap shoot going into Q4. Read the 8Ks on RF, STI, BBT, etc. Just read the details. Quit listening to the MSM and READ damnit.
The reality of the bullcrap they are glossing over will blow your freaking mind.
And possibly make you some money.
john...i am aware of the matters you mention and familiar with the bal sheets of the bigger regionals....it seemed to me that you are suggesting something major re cdo's and/or cds's due to cit for the american regionals...i haven't come across that info. if i'm mistaken, excuse me.
The moron regionals used the CLO/CDO/CDS route to hedge themselves against a ton of the CIT issues, Citi issues, etc. and proclaimed that crap as Tier 1 capital on their balance sheets!
That's all I'm saying.
Oh and the fact they have to mark some of this crap to market causing further deterioration in their already crappy alleged Tier 1 captial ratios. SOME folks will have to produce via squatting a massive amount of capital in 60 days.
Care to wager on the success rates? I'm going seriously small until Friday then super short.
thank you for the information john.
I was looking at the last post. The dollar amount in bonds is just breath taking. I had no idea a company could be on the hook for so much money. I am trying to think how Franklin Mutual is going to explain how eating 21 million shares was ever a good idea. On the other hand, whomever sold the 81 million shares short (and hung on) is feeling vindicated right about now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DheY15iUzZZs
As I understand it, CIT provides credit lines to huge numbers of small businesses. Is this
correct? If so, do payroll lines of credit get cut across the board?
The S&P Report with the 1053/66% CDO's is from December 4, 2008 and describes the situation at the end of November 2008. That's a year ago, and assuming that since then banks will probably have tried to unwind some of these positions, how do we know whether the current situation is still the same, or better, or worse?
SHOOT ALMOST EVERY SMALLER REGIONAL whoops in Ca. has CRE exposure. If the CIT thing sets off a domino effect in regionals' portfolios it will affect them all
Gotta be a greenshoot. Futures are up!
Just remember. All is well. Extend and pretend rules.
yet futures are trading up sunday night? perhaps this news is already discounted.
I apologize for not being as cultured in CDOs as the rest of you...
Is there then a possibility that this CIT filing could cause some fairly large margin calls that could cause some short term havoc?
From what I read, it is a possibility that bondholders don't take that big of a haircut here. However, if similar debt gets marked down, due to CIT, then there could be a problem.
Am I following this right?
Come on you guys, didn't you see the Futs after the close on Friday? (I saw a print that was minus 185), when it was everywhere that CIT might go Tango.... Up?
The PPT jumped in, with a Halloween mask on, (now if a bandit has a bandit's mask on and calls it Hallo....? Just sayin') and smoothed everything out.
The 20 bil. that it takes to make the Futes all good, where does that come from? From what slush fund, (god, those NIxonian cocksuckers are good at slush funds/acronyms since the best acronym of all time, CREEP; a slush fund masquerading as re-election campaign?)
Is it from TARP?
The collapse is around the corner, the question is, have we reached the corner?
Wow! The PAPER PONZI MONEY ZOMBIES are really sweating over CIT BK. I wonder if anyone will wake up to the fact that the paper system is rigged and go buy some cold, hard, Gold before the collapse.
Nah, who am I trying to kid.
GOT GOLD SUCKAS!
CIT was the biggest lender to of all things, Dunkin Donuts. Go figure. Two years ago a West coast Dunkin financing deal was paying 1% a month. Today it three points a month. That is going to spread to other small businesses. CRE for these properties wil be impacted. Bye bye strip malls.
OMG, in the Northeast there's a Dunkin every 5 feet, grocery stores, drug stores, post offices...
Chocolate Cake Glazed...DAMN !
On pages 4 and 5 where they discuss correlation, or lack thereof, I smell the decaying carcass of LTCM. S&P discusses only the correlation within an industry as it relates to the tranches of a group of CDO's, forgetting that under some circumstances EVERYTHING correlates, especially that which used to correlate weakly or even negatively.
Weird things going on all weekend with the futures numbers. Early Asian Bloomberg numbers all f'ed up; some problem with the data feed. They redid all their segments with revised numbers; massive losses in equities were replaced with tiny gains. I'm suspicious.
Don't woory everyone... GE Capital will take care of it all.
hehe...
No hehe here ... that could be true just ask CNBC
So what will this do to the vig from Vinny down at the tow yard for small business receivables?
" Fugetaboutit- You can't get a loan? Too Bad...the weekly rate is now 40%. Don't like it? You know what you can do ! "
Thanks grunches for this linked doc. Appendix 1 is a keeper. It's like a who's who of multi nationals, and it shows clearly why the system is being defended so aggressively. Anything with loads of money is pressuring the dot govs to keep on bailing out. Then there's the middle class, who are being pillaged for whatever they have left that's of any value, and on whose backs mountains of new soveriegn debt is being foisted.
With so many large multinationals arrayed against our interests, you can clearly see what we're up against. You can see just how fucking hard it's going to be to force true reform. You can see why there is no MSM call to stop the looting.
Someone who still has posting rights over at KD needs to get him to see this. He'll be good for a rant.