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Renewed Battle For The Falkland Islands Suits The Embattled British, Argentine Leaders, And Others

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by the Defense And Foreign Affairs Team at OilPrice.com

Renewed Battle for the Falkland Islands Suits the Embattled British, Argentine Leaders, and Others

The artificially-engendered revival of the dispute, which began in February 2010 between Argentina and the United Kingdom over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic, has been portrayed as a posturing by embattled Argentine Pres. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, taking advantage of both the start of exploratory oil and gas drilling by British company Desire Petroleum in the Falklands waters, and the talks by Latin American and Caribbean leaders of the Rio Group in the Mexican resort of Playa del Carmen, beginning on February 22, 2010. But the crisis may well play into the political posturing of equally embattled United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who faces a general election by June 2010 at the latest.

Britain’s presently governing Labour Party is as conscious — almost superstitiously so — of the fact that the 1982 Falklands War with Argentina revived the flagging fortunes of incumbent Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, just as the US Democratic Party is fixated on the belief that Democratic Pres. Lyndon Johnson failed to win a second term in office because of being embroiled in the Vietnam War. As a result, the British Labour Party is unlikely to attempt to quell the dispute in the short term between the UK and Argentina, even though it plays strongly into the hands of Pres. Fernández de Kirchner.

The increasingly leftist bloc within Latin America, prompted and often financed by Venezuelan Pres. Hugo Chávez Frias, obliged Pres. Fernández on February 22, 2010, in Mexico by endorsing her attacks on the UK position and the assertion of Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands. It is clear, however, that Argentina’s population and Armed Forces are in no position to resume any form of military conflict with the United Kingdom over the Falklands, even though British forces are themselves stretched by engagement in Afghanistan.

In many senses, though, this represents a possible “win-win” approach for Venezuelan Pres. Chávez, who is integrated strategically with his two principal allies, Iran and Russia, and, to a degree, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), in that any threat to the Falkands could bring about a redeployment of UK forces out of Afghanistan and into the Falklands. This, too, could assist in the re-election of Gordon Brown’s Labour Government in the UK, which would be preferable to Chávez as well as to Iran and Russia than the election of a Conservative Government in the UK.

As well, the episode strengthens the Rio Group, which is consolidating at the expense of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the US’ now almost moribund Monroe Doctrine.

As a result, the entire “storm in a South Atlantic tea-cup” will neither result in renewed conflict between Argentina and the UK in the near future, but will further the political positions of Pres. Chávez, Pres. Fernández, Prime Minister Brown, and the strategic positions of the PRC, Iran, and Russia - all three of which have commercial-strategic as well as geopolitical interests in South America, if only to minimize or contain US influence.

Source: http://www.oilprice.com/article-renewed-battle-for-the-falkland-islands-suits-the-embattled-british-argentine-leaders-and-others.html

Anaysis By GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs Staff for oilprice.com who focus on Fossil Fuels, Metals, Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitics To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

 

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Tue, 03/02/2010 - 14:49 | 251269 RowdyRoddyPiper
RowdyRoddyPiper's picture

Who really gives a shit about the Falklands aka Malvinas?  If it wasn't for the alleged oil resources no one but a)Britian...but she is clinging to a misguided belief that she is able to defend the islands.

b)Argentina does...which if it had a whiff of military competance could take the islands in a snap.

Lord Palmerston might have been able to defend the rocks against tin pot dictators like Kirchner, but Gordon Brown doesn't stand a chance.

My money is on the Arggys.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 15:41 | 251360 Gromit
Gromit's picture

As long as US supports UK no contest...kinda nice to see some ROI for UK.

Maybe with some oil revenue Falklands can become independent nation.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 19:28 | 251691 Sabremesh
Sabremesh's picture

Who really gives a shit about the Falklands? How about...people who go the effort to read (and then write responses to) news items about the Falklands while professing not to give a shit about them?

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 15:36 | 251343 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Is it just my imagination, or is Christina Fernandez-Kirchner really Lily Munster in disguise?

FYI- Lily Munster was portrayed as an "undead vampire", which certainly applies to both of them. 

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 18:09 | 251598 Adam Neira
Adam Neira's picture

Bit of respect for a national leader please. Criticise her policies all you like but personal attacks are infantile. Comment like that about the King whilst in Thailand and see what happens...

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 18:45 | 251642 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Are you serious?  We make fun of leaders of any and all countries we feel like.  Including Obama, who is among the funniest of them all.

Anyone got that photo of Obama hugging Chavez?  Seems appropros right here.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 18:58 | 251654 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

The Kirchners' net worth has risen from $2.3MM in 2003 to $12.5MM today. And that's what they admit to. (Source- The Economist)

Neither has held a job outside of politics during that period.

Vampires indeed.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 20:31 | 251730 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Respect?--get serious, Kirchners=terrorist thugs.  Last I checked, we weren't in Thailand, so we don't have to worry about their BS ideas.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 20:41 | 251733 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Check out the photo, on drudge, of
Evita shaking hands with the Hildabeast.
http://www.drudgereport.com/

Weird...

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 15:40 | 251357 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Well it's about time we had another shooting war between two collapsed states over some remote rocks.

Maybe next year the US and Russia can destroy each other over the tip of the Aleutians.

I would put my money on the UK, simply because of their national pride.  Admittedly their military is in derelict shape, but Argentina's is as well.  If it were against a country with funds, I would probably vote against the UK.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 15:56 | 251382 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

The problem with Argentina is they speak like the Spanish, make love like the French and fight like the Italians.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 18:55 | 251652 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Or should that be "make love like the Italians and fight like the French"?

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 15:46 | 251370 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Nah, they've got four Eurofighter Typhoons permanently stationed there. It doesn't sound like much but those things are incredible weapons and they probably could hold an Argentine attack off with them alone.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 16:31 | 251445 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Ah yes, four (4!) fighter jets.  How quaint.  Comments like that give me a little warm feeling inside for being a subject of the world's last superpower.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 17:20 | 251521 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

None of that. If they were F22s you'd call it a fortress!

Leave everything to us. If it goes pear shaped we can stuff the entire island on a Hercules and move them to Scotland. ;)

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 18:01 | 251577 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

I might call it a fortress if there were four B1B's or B52H's stationed there.  Maybe even F111s with really good crews.  No fighters would be sufficient.

And I think that C130 is going to need a refueling stop or two to make it home to the UK.  I suppose the Azores are open for business, but you might also need some friends in Brazil.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 22:07 | 251793 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Ascension island comes to mind - a piece of rock in the middle of the Atlantic with a nice little runway - used for the Black Buck missions - the longest bomber raid in history - performed on a shoestring with little margin for error - typical British have a go philosophy now sadly dying.

Wed, 03/03/2010 - 00:14 | 251936 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The Brits used Ascension Island in their last war with Argentina.

Argentina would lose big time if they tried again.  The 4 above mentioned Typhoons really are a big deal vs. Argentina's military.

Don't forget that Chile helped out the UK a bit (on the sly) last time as well.

I ain't crying for Argentina, although I did like their steaks when I was B.A.

Wed, 03/03/2010 - 00:23 | 251943 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

With no offense to the UK and the extremely impressive (bordering on crazy) bomber missions in the first Falklands War, I think the US bombing campaign of Iraq likely had the longest bombing missions ever, with nonstop round-trip flights from Louisiana to Iraq and back by B52s.  I think the mission time was something like 35 hours.

Wed, 03/03/2010 - 07:07 | 252079 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Kanye, get off the stage.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 16:23 | 251431 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I guess the winner gets to steal the inhabitants' retirement accounts.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 18:03 | 251580 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

So sadly ironically true.

I guess that's what the world has come to.

Wed, 03/03/2010 - 08:46 | 252100 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

It used to be the sheep and women, not necessarily in that order

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 16:24 | 251432 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The old saying goes....

Your company is only as good as your people....

Brown ....is a clown....and will take any populist style measure ....even if half baked....

There is a reason that Brown is a populist clown....

See for yourself....go to wiki....examine his bio....

Brown is not qualified to run a lemonade stand....but has

already qualified himself to be able to ruin a good country...

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 16:27 | 251438 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

My thinks the limeys are gonna lose this time around.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 18:28 | 251622 Lou629
Lou629's picture

Putting all political, economic or tinfoil reasons for this potential dustup aside for the moment, we have all heard the line that refers to what happens to those who don't take a lesson from history.  I would not bet against the UK in this re-do, if it actually comes to it.   

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 17:06 | 251503 Adam Neira
Adam Neira's picture

NEWSFLASH...Sao Tome and Principe has just declared allegiance to Argentina. Balance of power shifts in the South Atlantic. Gordon Brown has been summoned to the Palace.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 17:15 | 251513 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Ummm... Round 2?

"Argentina was celebrating a diplomatic coup today in its attempt to force Britain to accept talks on the future of the Falkland Islands, after an extraordinary two-hour meeting in Buenos Aires between Hillary Clinton and the country’s President Fernández de Kirchner."

Her intervention defied Britain’s long-standing position that there should be no negotiations unless the islands’ 3,000 inhabitants asked for them.

It was hailed in Buenos Aires as a major diplomatic victory, but condemned in the Falklands. Britain insisted there was no need for mediation as long as the islanders wanted to remain British. “We don’t think that’s necessary,” a Downing Street spokesman said.

(.... snip)

Her visit to the region was “all about damage control”, Mark Weisbrot of Washington’s Centre for Economic and Policy Research said today. She may have controlled one source of damage to America’s reputation, but she has uncorked another.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article70473...

 

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 17:16 | 251515 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

My tinfoil hat take on this is that it's an ideal opportunity for labour to destroy the conservatives whilst distracting from the economic clusterfuck that has been Gordon Brown. An amphibious assault to take or retake the islands would be difficult for both militaries and I'm assuming that even if Argentina wanted to invade now due to logistics and weather in the south atlantic any attack wouldn't occur until after the UK election. Until very recently Gordon Brown was expected to lose this comprehensively.
Gordon's gameplan in this scenario would be to offer no credible counter arguments to Argentina to reduce the chance of international support for Britain in the war. Minimal forces would be allocated to the defence of the Falklands so they could be brushed aside by Argentina and shown on the news surrendering. The rest of the British forces will be left tied down in conflicts in Mesopotamia and pipelineistan so the conservatives will be left with no choice but to accept Argentinean control over the Falklands. This together with the spending cuts and interest rate rises that the conservatives would be forced to enact to try and avoid national bankruptcy would destroy any support the conservatives had and allow Gordon back in at the following election.
Of course the people living on the islands would have no say on their sovereignty but they don't count politically. Also Britain would be weakened but the aim is always power, better to rule a weakened country than to let the other gut rule it.
Since this thought occurred to me the conservatives are doing a great job of throwing the election, whether it's incompetence or genius I can't tell.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 17:49 | 251559 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The Argies have perhaps a dozen or more serviceable ex  marine A-4s and half dozen Mirages - if they can get through and bomb the runway the euro fighters will have only one sortie in them and they could bomb the islands ground forces at leisure after that.

But I do not believe those pilots will have the balls to bomb Stanley although their predecessors fought with great valour during the 1982 conflict.

It would be a one shot winner takes all conflict.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 18:06 | 251588 Adam Neira
Adam Neira's picture

In the South Atlantic Rematch the score would be (Fade in James Alexander Gordon's voice here...)

Argentina 0 England 10

 

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 21:35 | 251608 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I am reminded of the British defence of Malta when Fate Hope and Charity defended that Island against the Italians.

But probably only 2 Eurofighters are on QRA alert and even primitive aircraft can get through when the enemy's planes are bingo fuel.

PS just checked that the new airfield Mount Pleasant has 2 runways of 2.5 and 1.5Km with  a Rapier missile detachment.

 

 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Mount_Pleasant

 

The Brits have this one covered- the Argies are showboating but could still threaten any commercial activity that occurs at sea,

 

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 19:41 | 251699 laughing_swordfish
laughing_swordfish's picture

It will be interesting, but my money's on the UK.

Reason: fighters on the ground (Eurofighter Typhoons) and Britain's ability to cordon off the area with submarines is, if anything, improved.

The Argy military would have a hard time getting there and once landed, it would be totally cut off from re-supply.

Besides, regardless of Clinton's posturing, I think the US would intervene on the side of Britain, as the alternative would be a total UK withdrawal from Afghanistan.

 

KrvtKpt. laughing swordfish

DKM shoreside financier

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 19:41 | 251702 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The Falklands should take over the UK.....

Since they have spent and borrowed all their money....

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 19:43 | 251704 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Eurofighters?

Are those the jets that only work 35hrs a week and take 6 weeks off every year?

Attack in August when they're not around

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 19:45 | 251707 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

this proto scrap is ideal for my company:
"World in Conflict Tours,Inc"we specialize in conflict holidays,

Falkland Frolic: Cruise the southern seas to observe the fight for islands of inconsequence

Here's a current tour listing:

Pakistan Southern Border Trek. 10 days full American plan.(escorted  - guides provided by "Blackwater")

Southern Philippine Sea Tour. 5 days to several years  ( bring your hostage escape bag on this one)

Sights of Kirkuk.  7 days. American plan -tour members rate this one highly.."the IED's were better than expected and the Kurdish meals where just exotic" wrote one member,prior to an unfortunate accident.

Our motto: "Why fight at home when there's this whole big world of fun and mayhem. "

to participate must pay in cash. no records of

your participation will be kept..we never met you..wink wink. 

 

 

 

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 20:18 | 251726 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

This is pure silliness.  Argentina has a couple aging A-4's and Mirages that would be hopelessly outmatched by the UKs Eurofighters and Tornado GR4's.  Argentina has no navy to speak of, the ships they used to launch the ground invasion of the Falklands were scrapped and not replaced.  Any new conflict would be completely one sided.  The Kirchners know this.  They don't have the money to go to war anyway.  Strictly a way to improve their standing in upcoming elections and distract the public from the terrible job they've done with the economy down there.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 23:06 | 251868 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Pure distraction by both countries from their on-going economic woes.

Wed, 03/03/2010 - 01:26 | 251979 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

this is more painfully scripted than a Hollywood Hogan vs Ric Flair match in 2010

Wed, 03/03/2010 - 04:15 | 252040 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Damn it Tyler, Malvinas!

I am backing Argentina on this one. I am supporting and standing firmly behind Cristina Fernández de Kirchner...

I'd like to ram her backside with an Exocet missile while I am standing firmly behind Cristina Fernández de Kirchner...

You Anglophiles can bop Thatcher or the old Queen bag all you want... you sick little pervs...

Wed, 03/03/2010 - 10:11 | 252164 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Tymoshenko is hotter, if that's your only criterion.

Wed, 03/03/2010 - 08:25 | 252095 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

we in the UK also have a few nuclear Subs and my nephew is on one of them. Be sure that the UK will sink any Argy tin pot boat that comes within the exclusion zone. If the spiks want some just come and try. This island was never theirs nor will it be while oil exists there. As for Merka bleating on. First off we were there when you needed us for your little Oil based war and we can drop you if you dont back us. Secondly if you dont back us we will go it alone. There is a shed load of black gold in those there seas and the UK needs every penny it can make from it. So Argys piss off or you could feel the cold steel of a Nuke up your arse. But hey its your Arse!!!

Fri, 04/16/2010 - 09:36 | 303780 mark456
mark456's picture

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