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Repeating The Same Old Story
Markets remain rangebound, pinned near the highs, the usual gamers buying and selling assorted risk assets based on the tiniest erratic movements in EUR/USD. In the meantime, expect to hear more jawboning and pie-holing from various officials attempting to support the U.S. Dollar. Get prepared to hear some words like "brutal", "unwelcome", "unnatural", "destabilizing", etc. inserted in these statements the next few days.
Amazing how back in the day, countries used to assert their manhood by boasting of an ultra strong currency, with which they could use to acquire goods on the cheap. But nowadays, everyone is suddenly an "exporter" wishing to smash their currency so they can sell their items to Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and Home Depot.
Imagine being some Bundesbank Bureaucrat, paying $8/gal. in gas to fill up his Mercedes limo in order to get to work. Rather than talk up his currency and lower his imported gas and food costs, he'd rather destroy his currency so his country can export more BMWs, Wolff tanning beds, Krupp coffee makers, etc. to the unemployed, foreclosed out, U.S. Consumer. And rather than use your FX reserves to invest in assets in your own country, you would rather buy more 10-year Treasuries yielding 3.3% in a country running trillions in deficits and stuffed to the gills with quadrillions in derivatives.
Barring any foreign pronouncements, proclaimations, and lectures directed Bernanke, Geithner, LLP, I suppose people will continue to buy stocks.
Today was no help, as Nouriel Roubini came out with more warnings of an economic crash the day after Meredith panned the banks. I mean, doesn't the guy know when to quit? He could have retired last year as a rock star, knee deep in fancy cars and foreign escorts, if he would have gone long risk assets with whatever meager savings he had accumulated.
Instead, he's still out there beating last year's story, and is still stuck communting to NYU in his mediocre Honda Accord station wagon, wearing suits purchased at TJ Maxx.
Then on today's Fast Money mid-day report, somebody made the mistake of pointing out Goldman Sachs as the "Canary in the Coal Mine" and attempted to make a case for a head and shoulders shampoo pattern warning of a major collapse.
Those guys at Goldman must be licking their chops. Watch them let this stock fall under the 50-day, then u-turn it at the worst possible time. All it will take is a few phone calls to Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan.
"Hey, we'll buy your stock tomorrow if you buy ours!! Tomorrow night at the massage parlor is on us!!"
Note how they ran the steel stocks again today.
Next one to watch is XOM and USO. Oil inventory comes out tomorrow.
Breakout or Fakeout??
Heh, here's a picture of environmentally conscious Pamela Anderson pumping gas in Malibu...
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Thanks for your work RT, always enjoyable.
Much like Pam's floaters, XOM is a fake that is being held up into OpEx. There are three singular issues of outsized importance that each trader must be aware of as the final stage of the topping process begins to show itself.
To regurgitate our thoughts from 11:17 this morning:
... don't be caught dead in XOM ... DOW components are going to see a massive influx of interest over the next few days / weeks as traders / investors sell beta and move to the alleged "safety" of blue chips ... can keep running IF enough people jump on board shorts and open new put interest ... there are 3 you MUST be aware of: XOM, IBM and AAPL. XOM for its mkt cap weighting and its function across ETFs ... IBM bc of its massively outsized weight within the DOW Divisor ... AAPL is the rig / game within the NDX, the NASDAQ 100, at 17% of its weighting and the 'Cult of Cupertino' is THE cult du jour for everyone's sister, neighbor and local fast food cashier.
As the equity markets continue their topping process, being led by currency, leading commodities, lagging the Bond markets and paying no attention at all to credit spreads or such notably leading metrics as the Ted Spread ... $$$ will flow into blue chips and $$$ will come OUT of risk assets and anything beta-driven. So, for equities this means that the RUSSELL 2K and NDX-100 will decisively underperform while the DJIA markedly leads each of its higher beta brethren into a rolling top for all of Primary wave (2) circle.
Pamela was always a little slow on the trigger, bless her heart....
Interesting bit about GS' share price. Can't wait to see what happens!
Actually, the economy hit her pretty hard too.
As soon as she saw the low-octane "drizzle" she could only reminisce of the type of pearl neclace(s) gifted to her - not the ones she can't buy.
Actually, she is suffering the ravages of the deep-recession like everyone else.
As soon as she glimped the low-octane "drizzle" she could only reminisce of the days pearl neclace(s) were gifted to her, not the ones she might contemplate to buy.
Overvalued = go short Pamela
And don't buy any CDS on her deflatables. Her surgeon cashed out in gold.
from an article in today's Daily News (seems that Roubini is shilling again for pal Summers)
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2009/11/15/2009-11-15_the_worst_is_y...
great one today robo...
will watch GS even closer than usual.
please note all that per b'berg headlines right now Lloyd apologized....AGAIN!
He said Goldman did things "that were wrong".
Apple announced today that it has developed a breast implant that can store and play music.
The iTit will cost from $499 to $699, depending on cup and speaker size. This is considered a major social breakthrough, because women are always complaining about men staring at their breasts and not listening to them…
hahahahah ... on so many levels.
Laughed my ass off! Thanks LG.
Priceless. Made my day!
OT, there's a saudi company named UTIT, check the logo.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/11/02/logowatch/
you gotta go on Leno
I-Boob or better yet I-Boob Touch
Do you really need to know anymore than this?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm
Just keep buying. Or should I say, transfering any and all USD you have into something, anything.
Today's internal market readings are reflective of only one thing: HFT algo's attempting to pin XOM et al. into OpEx as the DJIA takes decisive leadership across domestic equity markets while the NDX-100, SP-500 and RUSSELL 2K considerably underperform
VOLD lame, ADD weak, TICK highly erratic while VIX continues to coil lower while registering serious positive divergences on a weekly. The $DXY US Dollar Index plotted a new swing low at 74.66 yet reversed sharply to close well over the 75 handle. ONLY a 135 minute (1/3 the cash) close above 75.77 will shift the hourly profile from bearish to neutral; and until there are two consecutive closes above 76.89 there is NO uptrend to speak of. The EURO appears to be initially confirming a possible $DXY bottom. Swissie (CHF) and EuroYen (EURJPY) are the next two majors / crosses needed to confirm any possible US Dollar bottom.
After a Three Inside Up candlestick pattern yesterday, the @ ES (S&P futures continuous contract, current basis December, ESZ09) shook off an earlier looking Hanging Man plot (at 3:54 EST) and closed above the daily 610 EMA (1105.40) with its entire real body. This level had not been touched since 5/20/08 at 1412.99.
It is a scalpers market, best suited for those who work across interval periods of 2-3 mins or the tick. Bottom line: outside of inter-market divergences and subtle hints from the VIX, $DXY, EURO, average true range, short-term volatility, extremely low volume, a frenetic NYSE TICK that repeatedly touched +900 / +1000 (+1051 high) before plunging to -300 / - 600 (-951 low), and a blatantly obvious HFT algo trail of 20 second pulsed basket orders / futures punches after several non-confirmed TICK induced bear traps ... this 'market' is NOT structurally sound and anyone who still remains an "investor" ought seriously consider their effective risk / reward at this extremely high probability juncture of time, price and sentiment.
We have a series of client calls into the early evening but will continually check this board to see if we can help answer any questions alongside RobotTrader. And as always, thanks for taking the time to read our thoughts.
If oil takes off by the end of the week, and the OIH and XLE clear to new highs.
Forget about any material stock market correction for the rest of the year.
By the way, the Summation Index finally turned up today:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
Kind of a weak hook in the SI.
For upside down nipple chasers:
thanks for your thoughts fibo.....your insights are appreciated.
Thanks deadhead ... but we've got nothing that can compete with "upside down nipple chasers" with pic ... lol, love ur style RT.
"Heh, here's a picture of environmentally conscious Pamela Anderson pumping gas in Malibu..."
Yeah, that ain't no Prius Pammy's filling up there.
In a world with 10-20% industrial overcapacity, you either let struggling businesses fail and accept the short-term pain and suffering or put the pedal to the metal and hope economic conditions improve before the engine blows up. Politicians won't accept Option 1.
I have a theory. This market would collapse if "top" picking short sellers woud just leave it the hell alone for a few days. Play with your children. Read existential philosophy. Pick your nose. Stop playing in this ridiculous rigged game! When there are no more buyers (ie. short sellers covering) there will be selling, lots of selling. Take a break people (you know who you are). Missing the first wave of the decline will be far less injurious to your capital than this insane Charlie Brown, Lucy and the football top picking futility.
+1 share of FAZ (love the peanuts metaphor...so true)
I think I posted something about a month ago along the lines of 'For the love of God, QUIT SHORTING!'
I agree with you - who else on earth is buying now?
Robo is probably right though regardless of XOM does - there will be NO correction the rest of this year.
Everyone will hold off until retailers report their 'better than expected Xmas sales, and they'll have set the bar so low that they'll beat them handily.
Then it's a new budget year, so new stimulous for real at that point.
I don't think anything is likely to trigger a new correction at this point but it felt like that in 08 too.
As for GS
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1334054072&play=1
6:15 into the video
With a little refinement, the gist of your theory is spot-on; and a basic tenet within the subtle nuances of TA.
12:52: can not underscore how frenetic price action is today .. NOT healthy BUT aren't we ALL interested in the short side ... SO ... we're all just cannon fodder UNTIL an actual turn does materialize. Just shifting from bullish to bearish or vice versa is a PROCESS .. underlying intent takes time to shift. In the meantime .. we're ALL looking that way .. so it will NOT be that simple ... bottoms occur in flashes ... tops take time to form and distribute ... especially one of SUCH significance as what is approaching ... takes time to sift out spec shorts .. takes time to wade through all bullish participants intentions (read: firepower) before any market can roll over.
Hetty,
Have you checked volume? This market has walking pneumonia. I'm not sure what empirical data one could use to prove your point, so I can't suggest any, but I don't accept the theory that the market is being held up or pushed higher by "'top' picking short sellers." Instead, I'll submit my theory that its the big trading desks holding it up to perform more distribution. The momo traders were the easy converts. Now, they've successfully convinced a lot of fence riders and ardent bears that we're a whisker away from 1250. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 currently trades at 140 times earnings, i.e. at this earnings rate, it would take you 140 years to earn back your investment. What did P.T. Barnum used to say?
What did P.T. Barnum used to say?
"I'm doing God's work"
+10 - almost spewed my drink at my computer screen!
with news that the tentacle of omaha took a slice of XOM it seems that some peeps think that maybe inflation may be goin up and tha dolla may be goin down down down down down, so baby, (if you long) don't worry....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m34xyw8E-Qs
and the girlie tween retailers are still bustin out (TWB) all ova. you gotta find your own pics on that one. but i just got a new pair of DC kicks because they have the sickest, illest, infomercial ever filmed, ever, ever!!! too bad their stock is flatlined (ZQK) cause i love their products.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ7R_buZPSo
"Imagine being some Bundesbank Bureaucrat, paying $8/gal. in gas to fill up his Mercedes limo in order to get to work. Rather than talk up his currency and lower his imported gas and food costs, he'd rather destroy his currency so his country can export more BMWs, Wolff tanning beds, Krupp coffee makers, etc. to the unemployed, foreclosed out, U.S. Consumer. And rather than use your FX reserves to invest in assets in your own country, you would rather buy more 10-year Treasuries yielding 3.3% in a country running trillions in deficits and stuffed to the gills with quadrillions in derivatives"
Pithy but oh so true. Good stuff, Robo.
One thing I'm noticing about this market is that day-trading the wrong stuff is lethal. With miners and commodities, I do better holding the stuff. Not forever, not buy-and-hold, but "long-term", say, one or two whole months. Prices are ramped up, the herd goes wild, screaming "Get me out!!!!" and prices plunge again. Just buy stuff with good fundamentals anywhere reasonably low, hold through the gyrations and the general trend, a la Mr. Jim Rogers, is UP. But don't buy teen retailers and junk RE unless you have a fat wad and balls of iron...or a wish for beggarization...
No, no, no. "long-term" is 6 hours 29 minutes. overnites are way too risky. as for buying stuff with good fundamentals... puhleeze. everything, including the junk has been ramped up due to central banks printing money. you gotta be long or short with the trend. no one can figure out the fundamentals so don't even try.
NOT so! Think outside the box. Marc Faber early this year: buy sectors in which the fundamentals remain unimpaired! He meant: miners, commodity producers with pricing power, energy. There are many, many small producers still well-priced, given that we probably face a range-bound market for months to come...I've done well with small producing miners - my only error is not holding them long enough!
alrighty. do it your way, but you gotta keep a really tight stop loss. if you're down 5% you gotta close out the position. you can get back in when the dust settles.
Careless, agreed!
GOLD is either running on a wing and a prayer, on fumes, or on pure speculation. Either that or the credit junkies and mainstream investor-cognoscentis have found religion...the yellow metal was well north of $1140 this AM, despite being respectably above 75.00 on the DX...
You ain't seen nothin' yet in Gold. It is primarily Gold's party - other "risk" assets are just crashing it for now. They'll be thrown out soon.
and silver deserves an honorable mention
"Heh, here's a picture of environmentally conscious Pamela Anderson pumping gas in Malibu..."
Hey, my hose would leak too if I just filled Pam's tank.
Not if you saw her close up...how much of her is REAL anyway?
real? who can even tell the difference:
http://www.redbalcony.com/?vid=25813
but i prefer these and they are definately for real:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lY4kCD5o7A&feature=related
better wear gloves....you too can have Hepatitis C... for life.
Robo, great post. Welcome to the Royal Scam.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRjItDLnAwc&feature=related
better audio:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyjkX6z4l2s&feature=related
thanks. haven't heard that song in a while. steely dan had some great songs. this song by coldplay seems relevant. it's about the french revolution which was started by a financial crises.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
Robot Trader is by far the most entertaining financial blogger since the invention of co-location.
Technical analysis can assist us as to the direction of the economy.
My long term USD indicator has been giving BULLISH warnings for some time and I am expecting a USD rally.
My indicators can identify trend changes before they occur.
They warned me of an impending market crash back in early *2007*
The VIX continues to give bullish warnings as well.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Hermitage Capital Management lawyer dies in Russian jail. FDI in Russia is toast.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8846e0da-d37b-11de-9607-00144feabdc0.html