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Republican Kevin McCarthy Says No Debt Deal Likely Today, Or Over Weekend: Treasury Now Projected To Have -$15.5BN Cash Balance On August 15 $31BN Coupon Date

Tyler Durden's picture


Well, it looks like there will be no debt ceiling hike enacted prior to August 2 at which point the money really does run out. From The Hill: "The No. 3 Republican in the House said Thursday night that he didn’t expect any surprises in the deficit debate over the weekend. “I do not see something springing this weekend,” Republican Whip Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. McCarthy pooh-poohed reports that the White House and Republican leadership are closing fast on a deal on the budget deficit and raising the debt ceiling. “There is no deal,” McCarthy said, using the same phrase used by the White House and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) following reports they were nearing a deal on Thursday. McCarthy said Republicans would not rush to push a bill through in order to meet the Treasury Department’s Aug. 2 deadline. According to McCarthy, House Republicans will seek to follow their own “three-day rule” in order to allow members of Congress to debate the plan.

And the kicker:

“As a member of Congress, I’m going to want to read all the way through it,” McCarthy said. “And if you think this conference is going to go vote on something willy-nilly, they will not.”

McCarthy said he would expect any legislation related to the debt ceiling or deficit to spend those three days in the House and “at least three or five days” in the Senate.

Republicans will not be like the Democrats and “run it right to the floor,” McCarthy said

Now the reason why this is bad is because as Stone McCarthy calculates, "we expect Treasury to have less cash in early August than we thought previously." And here is where it gets very tricky since the money generating machinery won't be in place on time: "we now show Treasury with a negative cash balance of $15.5 billion on August 15, which implies that Treasury wouldn't have the resources to pay $30.6 billion in interest on that day."

SMRA has more:

At this point, we expect Treasury to have less cash in early August than we thought previously.

In mid May, for instance, we thought Treasury would open the day on August 2 with cash of about $85.0 billion. (See Chart of the Day: Imagining an August Without Borrowing, 5/20/11.)

The main reason for the lower cash balance is that Treasury has been issuing much less in bills than we had been expecting. In retrospect, we should have paid more attention to our own forecast that Treasury wouldn't be able to settle the July 2-, 5- and 7-year notes on August 1, without violating the debt limit. In late April, for instance, we projected that the settlement of those auctions would cause Treasury to violate the debt limit by about $24.0 billion.

What Treasury has done is to keep bill auction sizes lower than it would have otherwise to accommodate the settlement of those auctions, which were announced today and kept at their recent sizes. We think that explains the $4.0 billion cut in the 52-week bill announced today. Once the debt limit is increased, we think the Treasury will be ramping up bill auction sizes pretty aggressively. We will discuss that in more detail next week in our projections of Treasury borrowing needs for the next two quarters.

The table above summarizes our cash flow projections for the first two weeks of August, assuming that there has been no increase in the debt ceiling. The projections assume that Treasury will be able to at least roll over maturing debt on August 4, 11 and 15. That's probably becoming a more questionable assumption given all of the statements coming from the rating agencies. As the table shows, we now show Treasury with a negative cash balance of $15.5 billion on August 15, which implies that Treasury wouldn't have the resources to pay $30.6 billion in interest on that day.

If our projections are fairly accurate at this point, we still think the Treasury has enough options available to scrape together the extra cash to make the interest payment. Treasury has provided less detailed information than we would like on how much of its extraordinary measures it has used to create borrowing authority. Last Friday, Treasury announced that it would suspend the reinvestment of securities issued to the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and that by doing so, it was using the "last of the four previously announced measures available to keep our nation under the statutory debt limit."

Where can Tim Geithner squeeze a few last pennies from?

Again, Treasury hasn't been all that explicit about how much of each option has been used. But we're going to assume that, by August 2, it will have used all of the borrowing authority created by measures related to the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, the G-Fund, and the Exchange Stabilization Fund. That would leave $5.0 billion that could be created by redeeming the remaining $5.0 billion in bills in the Supplementary Financing Program Account. An announcement regarding SFP could come on Monday.

Treasury could also replace some Treasuries held by the Civil Service fund with debt of the Federal Financing Bank, which would create about $4.8 billion in borrowing authority. Treasury has given short shrift in various statements about using the Federal Financing Bank, saying it wouldn't create a significant amount of borrowing authority. But if you're trying to scrape together $15.5 billion to make an interest payment, $4.8 billion gets you 30% of the way there.

Finally, if Congress hasn't increased the debt limit by August 2, Treasury Secretary Geithner would be on solid ground in extending the length of the Debt Issuance Suspension Period (DISP), which would allow Treasury to make further use of the CSRDF. Declaring that he expected the DISP to last another month, for instance, would provide Treasury immediately with another $6.0 billion in borrowing authority.

In sum, Treasury is going to start August with less cash than we thought previously. We still think Treasury could probably pay its obligations through August 15, but it's become a much closer call.

Bottom line: if there really is no debt deal today, the August 15 coupon payment is looking increasingly shaky.


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Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:34 | 1480528 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Default Bitchez!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:45 | 1480611 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Exactly - how do we hi-jack this dumb-ass meme and vector the sheeple to ZH?  Then again, many a first timer to this site is all - WTF?.  Don't understand the TLA's, tits for avatars, sarcasm that's so fucking good even regulars are not sure if the questions are serious.  Where's Oslo?  God that's funny.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:56 | 1480700 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Transitory traditions bitchez! Traditions are Cheap, you can dig them out of the ground for $5.

Now that’s funny

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1480814 metastar
metastar's picture

Class Warfare Bitchez!

99.9 to 0.1!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:31 | 1480872 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture


They can effin' well stop spending elsewhere on that day.

If they default, it'll be 'strategic default'.

To stampede the herd. Get in line, curs!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:31 | 1481707 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Default already so we can get moving.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:21 | 1480828 PlausibleDenial
PlausibleDenial's picture

Interestingly, I forward ZH links to clients and friends.  My clients know that I read it.  I still have some left.  My friends, well they look at me as if I am crazy and, in fact, I don't get invited to do much these days.  I now have new friends that I met at  gun shows.  Go figure.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:32 | 1480882 SilverDosed
SilverDosed's picture

+1, although I like the friends I met at coin shows more.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:33 | 1481207 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I find they are usually the same group.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:45 | 1481264 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Yeah - it's cost me a couple job opportunities now that I'm job hunting.  My "buddies" are like - we don't want your gloomy ass around.  Nearly lost the wife.  Now I just keep my mouth shut unless someone asks and then I try to keep it short.  I got through to several people and they are prepared.  The rest will come knocking when they're hungry.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:39 | 1481503 msamour
msamour's picture

Let them eat lead, that is what I'll give them.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:14 | 1481607 johny2
johny2's picture

I will likely always remember a story I was told by a guy from Ukraine that I met. He had a huge scar all over his belly from taking a close range hit from AK47, which he somehow survived. Story is set in Ukraine after Soviet Union collapse. Guy asked his good friend to borrow him money, than when he got the cash, he used part of that same money to pay hitman to kill friend from whom he borrowed that same money, so he can keep the rest. If the dollar collapses, it is going to be best if no one knows that you have PM.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:51 | 1481296 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

I'm here because, well......isn't this where all the tools are?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:45 | 1480614 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Couldn't happen to a better country.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:57 | 1480706 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

If there is actually a default and the central government can't feed the States Dollars, secession becomes a viable option.

Texas will go followed almost immediately by the old 13 Confederate States. These 14 States never officially rejoined the Union after the ceasefire was signed. All they need do is declare their freedom from the union and close the borders. Many more States will follow making their own alliances with neighboring States and declare their freedom as well. This happened after the Soviet Union collapsed so don't think it can't happen to US as well. The only thing holding the Union together  are Dollar subsidies from D.C.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:07 | 1480759 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Which states will leagalize pot? I am moving there.


I am The Chief.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:14 | 1480794 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I wil be willing to bet (intrade anyone?) that itwould be one of the 16 states that allow it medically. 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:51 | 1480997 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Who cares?  It's the new DADT.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:15 | 1480803 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

I certainly hope so, as it is we have several internal sub-nations continually at political war with each other. It would be best for all concerned, the south is to the US as the Ukraine was to the old Soviet Union.

Hope the Northerners like Bernanke (courtesy of their dear friends in South Carolina), we didnt tell you but he is actually a long term Sons of Confederate Veterans/League of the South project raised and trained for years under the highly secret Operation Vengeance, Codename: Greenback.

He who laughs last laughs best, Yankee bitchez.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:54 | 1481007 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Yikes!  All you black folks down there might think about where you might want to move to.  Unless the idea of slavery appeals to you.  The real kind.  Not the financial kind.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:19 | 1481121 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

While I would certainly donate bus fare to anyone who wanted to leave, its worth considering that blacks only were brought here for one reason- they were farm equipment. We have tractors and cotton gins, what would be the point?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 23:45 | 1484136 sullymandias
sullymandias's picture

at least a real slave knows whats what

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:23 | 1480836 earnulf
earnulf's picture

Texas won't go, it's among the states that get more from the Fed's than what they pay in and the CSA died in 1865.

There might be talk of seccession, but that's all it will be, same for Cali which is a fedgov teat whore.

Not to say that things aren't going to get mighty interesting, but like the tv shows, there are plots within plots within schemes within whatever that will be trotted out until the folks say enough is enough and break out the ropes and pitchforks.

A lot of folks going to go off grid, might be a good idea to dust off the foxfire books as well.    Self-Reliance is going to take on a whole new meaning.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:24 | 1480846 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

+True - Perry has brought up the idea to be seen as a true small government politician.  Perry - the political posturing prick - nothing more, plenty less.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:48 | 1480971 Animal Cracker
Animal Cracker's picture

Cali is a fed gov teat whore only if you ignore what Cali sends to the Feds.

Despite the "gifts" from Uncle Suck, it's a net loss for California.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:00 | 1481039 wisefool
wisefool's picture

If you consider a wonder of the modern world (the hoover dam and associated infrastrucutre, and upkeep  for the watershed southwest of the rockies) a "gift" then yeah you are right.

Otherwise the land of fruits and nuts would be the land of cacti and tumbleweed.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:09 | 1481074 Animal Cracker
Animal Cracker's picture

I don't really consider the Hoover Dam a gift, since it was built with a loan from the UST that was paid in full by taxing electricity users.  

Besides, I thought we were talking about this generation.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:14 | 1481101 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Good point. In those days debt was used to accomplish useful,productive and lasting things.

In this generation, we get bubbles and very calculated,self escalating, divide and conquer social enginering techniques.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:36 | 1481221 cossack55
cossack55's picture

WPA all the way. 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:23 | 1481653 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture


Speaking to your first point, Webster Griffin Tarpley pretty much nails it.


My dear Congressman –

The American people are not interested in Obama’s Grand Bargain or the Gang of Six plan, which are cowardly and dishonest attacks on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, jobless benefits, and other vital programs. Cuts in these programs will not reduce the deficit, but they will kill Americans. Such cuts represent a veiled form of genocide. We want to save money by ending all the wars, including Obama’s fiasco in Libya. We want the repeal of the failed Bush tax cuts. We want to see Wall Street forced to pay their fair share through a Tobin tax or Wall Street Sales Tax of 1%, with half the proceeds kept by the US Treasury and the other half distributed to the states to stabilize budgets and protect social services. We want the most toxic derivatives — including credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations — banned, as they were from 1936 to 1982. We want a recovery and jobs program in the New Deal FDR tradition, all financed by 0% federal credit from a nationalized Federal Reserve. Reactionary Republicans and Tea Party fanatics need to be fought, not appeased. As for the ratings agencies, they should be on trial for their malfeasance of 2008, and not dictating policy to the US government. If Obama thinks he can get re-elected by catering to Wall Street and by betraying his own base to pander to those morally confused independents, he will meet the fate of Jimmy Carter. Any Democrat who votes to weaken entitlements must expect to be primaried and ousted. We urge you to call McConnell’s bluff and avoid the cataclysm of default by passing a clean bill to raise (or, better, abolish) the debt ceiling with NO CUTS to our hard-won New Deal and Great Society economic rights.

Webster G. Tarpley Ph.D.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:33 | 1482047 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Mr. Tarpley is off to a great start; I'd add let's eliminate DHS, DEA, decriminalize cannabis and legalize hemp, revolk the prison sentences of those incarcerated for simple possession or petty dealing, and pass a bill that makes it a felony to attempt to influence any member of Con-gress unless you reside in their district.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:34 | 1481723 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Hoover Dam was a very stimulating technical problem in trucking, what with the Jake Brake and all... You have to consider that they refridgerated the whole damn thing to get it to cure quickly instead of 120+ years.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:49 | 1481536 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Kali, is just a Flat out whore.

Always has been, always will be, just like NYC, and Chicago.

Vampires, all of them...........

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:31 | 1482019 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

it's among the states that get more from the Fed's than what they pay in


Your argument is flawed. All the Southern States get more money than they contribute.

That has been the wildly successful work of Southern Political Patriots sense the early 1960's. Why not bankrupt the Union with their own money and stupidity.

When the States are no longer receiving any money they will leave. Think about it a little while.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:51 | 1480996 Spastica Rex
Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:10 | 1481371 Sweet Secession
Sweet Secession's picture

The only government we need, police, EMS, schools (questionable), parks, water etc are provided by LOCAL governments. The Federal Government, with it's vast taxing power is truly the emporer with no clothes. 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:50 | 1481780 wisefool
wisefool's picture

snark: People who work for 501c tax free entities usually wear the finest clothes availible. Not that 50/50% drab polyester blends of cops/EMTs.

Are two opposing 501c corporations (lobbyist groups for political parties)  that are free from taxation by the government, a part of the government?

If a corporation like G.E. has 1000 people dedicated to work on tax avoidance, and consequently pay negative taxes, where does the government get the money to pay a WPA worker to make sure the taxes are properly assessed?

If a bear shits in the woods, do you really need to cover it with a TARP?

Does G.E. own 49% of CNBC & MSNBC?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:48 | 1480640 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

+14.5 trillion

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:06 | 1480755 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Which states will leagalize pot? I am moving there.

I am The Chief.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:55 | 1481012 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

As a non-partisan, I would find it the height of hilarity if this whole think is taken to the brink by the Tea Party 'fruitcakes' who were dismissed in summary during the last election cycle. 

Regardless of what the 'power that be' say about how this all should happen, thes folks really do think they are in the middle of a 2nd revolution.  And they might just be the ones who set it off!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:11 | 1481084 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

It would be the 3rd actually. Round 2 was won by the statists and equality instituted by changing from a system where part of the population were slaves of the super wealthy to one where all of the population are slaves of he super wealthy.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:55 | 1481550 DosZap
DosZap's picture


WHY, are they FRUITCAKES?.

Seems to me they are the only ones remotely trying to save this sinking ship from the PTB.

These folks are middle America, conservatives,democrats,liberals, libertarians,republicans, the whole shit n kaboodle .

You need to stop watching MSM, and reading/watching the U.K. shit.


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:44 | 1481762 V in PA
V in PA's picture

Remember Henny-Penny:

We are all being lead to the dark cave by this administration / FED. The sky is not falling. There will be no default. The only reason they want to borrow more money is to steal more from us to pay the interest, which goes directly into their pockets.

Cast of characters:
Henny-Penny = CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street
Ducky – Cocky and Goosey = Tax payers
Foxy = Ben Bernanke, Obama, Boehner, Geithner, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley et al…

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:36 | 1480540 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

I didn't think it would really happen. The idea of giving the executive power to raise the debt ceiling unilaterally has been floated already, and I bet that's how this will be addressed (lazy coward congress once again). I think congress will pull all the stops out to keep from default, with the exception to crafting a clear plan to deal with the debt.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:48 | 1480636 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

I too view this as a very likely scenario. My question to the house and senate, if they decide to hand the reigns over to Huesein Obama is - "If you aren't going to do your job, why in the FUCK would we pay your salary? Do your job you bunch of ass hat fags!"

I am The Chief. 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:51 | 1480658 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture


And it would have to be approved by Congress first. I don't see it happening. For Congress to hand it's power to the President is suicidal and probably unconstitutional anyway.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:00 | 1480733 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

We already have several thousand laws that are unconstitutional.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:18 | 1480810 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

What makes you think "Congress would have to approve it first"? The president already has "emergency" powers.

 The likely scenario, as I have previously posted:

Obama declares authority to raise the debt limit as an "emergency" measure to avoid economic calamity.

Congress (mostly Republicans) will then attempt to pass a measure disallowing Obama's executive action. Even if they are able to pass that measure through Congress, they will be unable to over-ride a presidential veto.

It's a win-win for the politicians. Obama gathers more executive power, and gets to claim he saved the nation from disaster. Republicans get to claim they voted against incurring more debt.


 But no matter how the two plutocrat parties together 'win' the  debt ceiling standoff,

we can be quite certain who the biggest losers will be.


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:47 | 1481279 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Never heard that one before...nice idea.  So plausible it just loosened my bowels. 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:13 | 1480787 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

"This suspense is killing me.  I hope it lasts."

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:18 | 1480817 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

This is all just a charade. The debt ceiling will pass with flying colors. Speculation of default is hot air. The US will default eventually bit there is lots of gunpowder left

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:24 | 1480845 P Rankmug
P Rankmug's picture

Exactly.  Europe came together against all odds at the last second to cobble together their agreement that was never going to happen.  US is  controlled by the same CBs.  Besides Boehner already said it will happen.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:28 | 1480859 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Europe deal will likely pass as well....much to my displeasure. Just sets us up for a collosal failure down the road. who knows....maybe China implodes first.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:57 | 1481022 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Lately it seems like each weekend becomes more interesting and suspenseful.

Looks like that trend will continue.

In the meantime, no problems get solved.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:37 | 1481733 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Tension what tension? Let them default. And the PM's will do the talking while copper provides the security.

I understand they are stealing entire medicine bags right out of Ambulances at the ER doors while the EMT's wheel patients inside in a few seconds time in Texas right now.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:57 | 1481017 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Exactly.  It takes balls to draw a line in the sand and stick a bayonet into anyone who crosses it.  And we have a government of eunuchs.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:37 | 1480917 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Kinda like foreplay?


I am The Chief

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:53 | 1481799 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Hmm, more like Augustus in the chocolate vacuum tube.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 17:12 | 1482608 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

That just doesn't sound as sexy.


I am The Chief.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:18 | 1480822 march52011
march52011's picture

The president will invoke the 14th amendment. There was a recent article that had Bill Clinton stating that he would unilaterally raise the debt ceiling using that consitutional amendment.


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:58 | 1481564 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Lazy coward Congress?.

I see it as No, Mr. President, you DO NOT get your way this time.It will get passed,or the Kenyan in Chief will use the 14th, or an EO to do it.


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:36 | 1480541 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Europe doesn't have to outrun the bear; they just have to outrun the US. And they will.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:40 | 1480571 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Have you considered the possibility of multiple bears?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:42 | 1480594 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

And bears that hunt in packs? lol

All i ask for is mutant bears with fricking lazer beams attached to their heads!  And a debt ceiling rise of one quadrillion dollars!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:33 | 1481720 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

+1 for the Austin Powers ref.


know your enemy

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:24 | 1481152 Thisson
Thisson's picture

That was brilliant!!!! +Flag as awesome!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:12 | 1481379 Thisson
Thisson's picture

That was brilliant!!!! +Flag as awesome!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:00 | 1480732 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Please expand on the notions that: (a) the EU will outlast the U.S. collapse; and (b) the EU will emerge in any material way from the U.S. collapse.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:00 | 1481570 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Europe is worse off than we are, as a whole.


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:36 | 1480542 kito
kito's picture

if republicans get their way and pass 6 trillion in cuts, thats bad for gold

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:44 | 1480606 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Dont worry im sure the europeans will pick up the slack.

Italy needs a marshall plan too no?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:44 | 1480607 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

How is further debasement of currency bad for any physical asset?  There will be a dip where people who don't understand economics will sell their physical and go buy more aapl stocks, but those who have a clue and understand that a debased currency results in a rise in physical asset costs will be pleased...

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:53 | 1480675 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

if republicans get their way and pass 6 trillion in cuts, thats bad for gold

Possibly. Or the funds won't be available to manipulate the market anymore and true price discovery will commence...which will be good for Gold.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:33 | 1480889 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

".. true price discovery .."   sounds mythical

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:41 | 1481246 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Myths were normally based on ancient facts.  True price discovery is like dinosaur talk.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:02 | 1480742 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Bring those 3 carrier groups and 2 big deck amphibious assault groups back to port. I dare ya. End those imperial escapades and settle back to your couches and TVs.

The opportunities for China and Iran have never been better.

The good news is these GOP saboteurs will make many many new enemies and be back to 35% approval where they belong. Get them out of power before they decide to help God and make armageddon happen.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:30 | 1480868 Jerome Lester H...
Jerome Lester Horwitz's picture

Yep, it's all The Republican's fault. You are an idiot!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:00 | 1481041 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture


It's all George Bush's fault!  He did all of this almost three years ago!

George Bush and the Devil himself Cheney!

It's all their fault!

(DCRB shows how weak his sarcasm is...)

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:05 | 1481580 DosZap
DosZap's picture


You into the crack again?.

The Saboteurs are in a 10 sq mile area,and the head has 2 Jets, and a cabinet full of Marxist/Socialist CZARS,and eugenics experts.

Blaming just the GOP shows your ignorance.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:36 | 1480543 There ya go again.
There ya go again.'s picture

I will gladly pay you in September for a hamburger today !!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:45 | 1480610 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Only if you pay September's price for today's hamburger.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:38 | 1481738 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

No, Step into this hopper and hamburger it shall be soon enough.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:36 | 1480545 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Long Self Sufficiency...and gold and silver.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:37 | 1480546 wsmith
wsmith's picture

But there's still no default.

We need to tell Moodys and S@P to go fuck themselves right in their asses.

Fuck the politics of fear.

And I'm also calling for massive deflation.

But what the fuck do I know?

Anyway, so long.

And God bless all you Marxist cocksuckers.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:58 | 1480715 Loose-Tools
Loose-Tools's picture

Psycho-Man! (He's everywhere, he's everywhere.)

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:37 | 1480547 JJSF
JJSF's picture

Well..this sounds market positive. What time do you think the ramp-to-close will begin to get s&p back to green?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:39 | 1480567 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

JJSF, don't you know?, EVERYTHING is market positive nowadays!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:46 | 1480624 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

so true slaughterer.... If Obama called a press conference to announce a world killing asteroid will hit in 12 days, the DOW would be up at least 3% lol

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:37 | 1480548 Misean
Misean's picture





Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:38 | 1480554 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Vegas Line on first to the finish:


U.S. Debt Ceiling Deal 6-1

Real Greece Bailout Deal 99-1

BHO 18th at Congressional 2-5


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:38 | 1480559 Kokulakai
Kokulakai's picture

Expect a measure to pass in the wee hours before a few members of each house.

Remaining legislators can then claim no responsibility.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:39 | 1480561 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Why is there a Uhaul parked in front of the Fed reserve building???????????????

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:46 | 1480628 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

The Chairsatan is moving to Panama?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:39 | 1480562 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

Nostradamus saw this coming.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:08 | 1480761 Transitory Disi...
Transitory Disinflation's picture

Nostradamus said GOLD would be found in Greenland I think...

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:39 | 1480566 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

Default wont happen. The Urkell will order Turbo Tax Tinny Tim (T4 for short) to not send military pay and Federal government employees pay on the 15th. They will add that to the SS funds that they will not send to the geezers on the 1st in anticipation of not reaching a deal and almost make it. Then Urkell will order T4 to print the rest as greenbacks/colonial scripts/sovereign money.

There is no political gain by defaulting and plenty of political hay to be had from not paying .gov, military and grandma on the 1st of August

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:16 | 1481616 DosZap
DosZap's picture

There is no political gain by defaulting and plenty of political hay to be had from not paying .gov, military and grandma on the 1st of August


Now I would buy a ticket to see that happen............

Ever seen a negative POTUS rating?.

-25%,might even be an attack on DC.


The Dems are more to blame than the GOP.


They want their cake and eat it to,more kick the can down the road.

The GOP is saying no MORE.( maybe political posturing,maybe not),I know it's damn sure not with the Tea Party members................


Giving these Buffoons more monopoly money to spend, is INSANITY.

When I see GE not paying ONE DIME on 5.1 B in profits, it makes me insane to think we are allowing them to cut Grannies SS FIRST.


Especially after the Billions Immelt got from the Fed.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:39 | 1480568 Waffen
Waffen's picture

could this event be used as the trigger to crash the market to usher in QE3 and to blame the conservatives

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:58 | 1480718 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Can Bernanke annouce QE3 without a debt ceiling hike?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:33 | 1481716 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

no, not technically

Once we offically hit the debt ceiling we in essence 'run out of money'. The treasury cannot issue any more government bonds.

One idea, Ben could announce (even though he already said he wouldn't) monetize municipal and state bonds to inject liquidity into the system.

QE3 is coming in some form, no doubt. Like many have said here, it will be even more creative and secritive than the previous rounds.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:40 | 1480570 wsmith
wsmith's picture

I Have a Large Cock!

I'm from the South.  I'm a proud product of incest.

My dick is very large.

Don't hate me because I'm beautiful.

It's not my fault if you have a pencil-dick.


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:42 | 1480589 snowball777
snowball777's picture

We're sure your boyfriend appreciates that, but please put it away.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:39 | 1481505 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture



Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:44 | 1480605 espirit
espirit's picture


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:58 | 1480714 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Aren't you late to your Flame101 class?  Don't forget your lunch bag that mom left for you on the counter.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:59 | 1480725 Loose-Tools
Loose-Tools's picture

Psycho-Man! (U da Man, Psycho-Man!)

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:11 | 1480727 Ryman1075
Ryman1075's picture
  • Deleted due to duplicate
Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:11 | 1480741 Ryman1075
Ryman1075's picture
  • deleted due to duplicate
Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:10 | 1480775 Ryman1075
Ryman1075's picture

Dude, seriously...

Keep your crap comments to the celente board that you keep posting.  How many times do you have to be told that ZH readers don't want to hear your garbage any more?

Tyler, can you delete this guy's profile so we don't have to read his crap any more?

He says that he has been on ZH for a long time, but his profile is 3 weeks old.  Maybe you already kicked him out before?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:26 | 1481166 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

+1 this character was a disruptor on another popular board.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:57 | 1481830 DosZap
DosZap's picture


  I'm a proud product of incest.





Yes, we have noticed.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:40 | 1480574 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I'm sure they could come up with temporary 5 day debt ceiling hikes to roll over matured debt...wait that makes too much sense.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:40 | 1480576 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:09 | 1480769 Transitory Disi...
Transitory Disinflation's picture

Bernanke The Fed Dunce?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:41 | 1480577 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Uh... but we have nukes and Obama can dance. Chris Mathews said he likes the crease of his pants, and Oprah anointed him.

This just isn't possible. Maybe your math is wrong. You know I once had trouble balancing my checking account, so I just charge my beer to the credit card. Seemed to work out okay.

What time does Desperate Housewives start?


I am The Chief.


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:41 | 1480579 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Again, everyone who defends the status quo here per the call that the GOP will cave, and superdy duper spending will go forth forgets the possibility that our President WANTS A DEFAULT!  He wants [in fact needs] the Republic on her knees.

And it looks more and more like he will get just that.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:52 | 1480670 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

I think Sheep Dog has been all over this since day 1.  They will come forth and say "We can't borrow any more money because we can't come to an agreement which stops the debt from increasing.  Therefore, we have all agreed to use existing money in 401k and pension accounts.  We will borrow this money temporarily/transitorily and replace it with Treasuries for now.  Then, once we pass a new deal we can re-purchase the treasuries and replace the cash."


Of course, just like the SS fund, once the money leaves and is replaced with IOUs, they will never be repaid.



Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:32 | 1480875 earnulf
earnulf's picture

That would be....unfortuate.     The words accredited to Yamamoto (not that he actually said them) would seem to apply should that occur.

"I fear that we have awakened a sleeping giant who will be the end of us."


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:40 | 1481746 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

It would be unfortunate if they take the money out of the employers and employee's hands. So solly all gone so sad.

Thank you whoever you are using Solly. Now you got me infected.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:04 | 1481866 DosZap
DosZap's picture


If they do that, Obama will damn sure get his wish.Their will be major violence, and not Greek style.

Three things you never screw with, a mans wife,kids, and his money.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:51 | 1480989 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

the GOP puts a gun to it's own head and threatens to pull the trigger, of course the other party is there to try and exploit the theatrics. WTF should they do, give in?

Of course it's all some master plan by the colored socialist nazi communist foreign terrorist POTUS to victimize the rightful WASP owners of the republic. Shit, that movie was playing when JFK got elected.

It all makes perfect sense if you're a zealot. Somebody has you all knotted up. Pretty cool, I'm jealous.


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:06 | 1481064 docj
docj's picture

WTF should they do, give in?

Well, they could try to, you know, propose and pass some actual legislation.

Like, I don't know, maybe a budget or something.

But that's too hard for your heroes, I suppose.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:59 | 1481325 nmewn
nmewn's picture

No shit.

Someone needs to corner that screeching banshee Pelosi and get her opinion on all this debt & budgetary stuff, she seemed clueless about it all the last two years ;-)

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:42 | 1481751 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Pelosi does not screech. She simply shows up like that unwelcome family member. Give it a few more years, a natural resolution of that problem will eventually eliminate that annoyance.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 17:52 | 1482731 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I keep waiting for the botox to finish with her brain and manifest itself through her eyeballs.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:21 | 1481942 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Her opinion has been given, "NO deals unless taxes are increased".

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 17:54 | 1482734 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I guess all the taxes in ObamaCare wasn't enough!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:05 | 1481579 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Here's a free ticket Back to've got about 38 black-ruled pestholes to chose from.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:28 | 1482001 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Did you see the Kenyans BURN 16million dollars worth of poached Ivory?,5 Tons.

While I wholeheartedly disagree with the slaughter of elephants,and poaching period.

This starving ass country should have at least sold it legally for the diseased,dying, and starving populations.One million a year die for lack of a $10.00 mesquito net......mostly children.

That's a lot of Nets.

Ignorance is curable, stupity is forever.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:17 | 1481411 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

our President WANTS A DEFAULT! 

They want to spend, spend, spend, not default. The Obama Administration survival would be in question with a default. The population will be very angry. Check your history.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:41 | 1480581 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Very simple explanation for this delay: The Wall Street Insiders haven't gotten their HFT programs tweeked yet to exploit the short term gyrations to follow, and can only do the final tweeking when the politicians give them the go ahead to launch.




Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:41 | 1480583 r101958
r101958's picture

You know, if that were my check book, I would spend less than I took in. Looks to me like that could be done without 'defaulting'. So, cut the friggin' spending! If you were helping your son/daughter learn how to handle their finances, is this what you would show them? No! So, again, cut the friggin' spending!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:33 | 1480887 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Man, that is brilliant. You should run for something.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:43 | 1481758 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

It's amazing all the Dems wanting to spend.

Like a Teenager saying 10 dollars is not enough for movie date night out.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:41 | 1480585 Debtless
Debtless's picture

If we recall - the original TARP bailout was passed over a weekend of congress chewing over a gun in its mouth. I suspect these asshats need some kind of similar motivation. 

BTW - good ol' Hanky Paulson said this morning the ceiling needs to be raised in order to prevent another catastrophe. 'Nuff said there. 

These clown are too much.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:31 | 1482027 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Who are the clowns?............the IDIOTS that want more spending, or the one's saying NO MORE?.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:41 | 1480586 espirit
espirit's picture

All this means is the US has not yet worked out a deal with the EU to find a mark to buy the crap they are peddling.

Africa maybe?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:43 | 1480595 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Just saw where a family HAD 10 rare double eagle gold coins from 1933, passed down through the family.

Guess what..  The govt siezed them, saying they were 'stolen' (no shit) STOLEN from the mint. ( no proof either)

And a fucking jury agreed.

Think about that for a minute.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:47 | 1480630 WallStreetClass...'s picture

There was no jury, it was judge's call. And the decision is still pending.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:37 | 1480914 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture


The law is what the man with the gun says it is.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:52 | 1480999 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

There are two kinds of people in this world.

Those with guns, and those who dig.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 11:46 | 1480959 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

But in asset forfeiture cases (where the asset has been seized) the burden of proof is reversed.  The property owner has to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that that the government is at fault in taking the property in the first place.  Normally, the government would have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the coins were not part of a legal exchange/swap at the time.  However, since the idiots who had the coins turned them over to the Government for authentication, now they have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the coins were part of a legal exchange/swap at the time.  Since no evidence exists either way- the Government wins by default. 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:22 | 1481438 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Wild rumor has it they (the family) kept others (up to 40). The 10 were a test. Now maybe it's a bad rumor, but thinking about it only a boob would turn over 100% of the "secret stash" to be "authenticated".

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:38 | 1482085 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The coins were not seized, the family of the deceased turned them into the Treasury to verify if they were real.

Is that stupid, or what....the Treasury?.

The coins were illegal,and were never meant for release PERIOD.

There were only supposed to be around 10 or so made in '33.(for gifts)

One was given to the King of Siam as a gift by Roosevelt, and the others who knows.

One man had one, legally, and had to go to court to retain it, it (if memory serves was the one given as a gift to the King.

He came by it thru legal channels..........court awarded him the coin(after much furor), sold for 7mil+ at auction.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:19 | 1481417 Thisson
Thisson's picture

You need to go back and read the actual case.  The coins are stolen property.  That is why they are rare - they were all to be melted down except for a handful that were stolen and hidden in a safety deposit box.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:26 | 1481462 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

The 1933 Double Eagle given to King Farouk coin escaped...legally. The experimental 1974 Aluminum Cent escaped because it was found on the steps of the Capitol after a Congressman did not return the sample to the Mint (as the "story" goes). 

There's no proof and everyone who knew is dead. Opinions vary on whether they were stolen or not. They may have been bought from the Mint Cashier, legally, and declared illegal later. Your claim is not necessarily true.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:44 | 1481761 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

It's gone.

That was because they were stupid. They saw the coins and were overcome by powerful visions of mountains of money and easy street.

If those coins showed up in estate somehow... aint no one gonna know about it but me.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:44 | 1480597 mian_jee
mian_jee's picture


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:46 | 1480622 WallStreetClass...'s picture

Defaulting would surely help with the jobs. America had it too good for too long, and the majority of population grew too dumb to have any connection to REALITY.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:53 | 1480678 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Really? Reality is different depending on where you are standing.  Just because others do not live in YOUR reality does not mean theirs does not exist nor does it mean that they should live in your reality.

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