Republican Kevin McCarthy Says No Debt Deal Likely Today, Or Over Weekend: Treasury Now Projected To Have -$15.5BN Cash Balance On August 15 $31BN Coupon Date

Tyler Durden's picture

Well, it looks like there will be no debt ceiling hike enacted prior to August 2 at which point the money really does run out. From The Hill: "The No. 3 Republican in the House said Thursday night that he didn’t expect any surprises in the deficit debate over the weekend. “I do not see something springing this weekend,” Republican Whip Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. McCarthy pooh-poohed reports that the White House and Republican leadership are closing fast on a deal on the budget deficit and raising the debt ceiling. “There is no deal,” McCarthy said, using the same phrase used by the White House and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) following reports they were nearing a deal on Thursday. McCarthy said Republicans would not rush to push a bill through in order to meet the Treasury Department’s Aug. 2 deadline. According to McCarthy, House Republicans will seek to follow their own “three-day rule” in order to allow members of Congress to debate the plan.

And the kicker:

“As a member of Congress, I’m going to want to read all the way through it,” McCarthy said. “And if you think this conference is going to go vote on something willy-nilly, they will not.”

McCarthy said he would expect any legislation related to the debt ceiling or deficit to spend those three days in the House and “at least three or five days” in the Senate.

Republicans will not be like the Democrats and “run it right to the floor,” McCarthy said

Now the reason why this is bad is because as Stone McCarthy calculates, "we expect Treasury to have less cash in early August than we thought previously." And here is where it gets very tricky since the money generating machinery won't be in place on time: "we now show Treasury with a negative cash balance of $15.5 billion on August 15, which implies that Treasury wouldn't have the resources to pay $30.6 billion in interest on that day."

SMRA has more:

At this point, we expect Treasury to have less cash in early August than we thought previously.

In mid May, for instance, we thought Treasury would open the day on August 2 with cash of about $85.0 billion. (See Chart of the Day: Imagining an August Without Borrowing, 5/20/11.)

The main reason for the lower cash balance is that Treasury has been issuing much less in bills than we had been expecting. In retrospect, we should have paid more attention to our own forecast that Treasury wouldn't be able to settle the July 2-, 5- and 7-year notes on August 1, without violating the debt limit. In late April, for instance, we projected that the settlement of those auctions would cause Treasury to violate the debt limit by about $24.0 billion.

What Treasury has done is to keep bill auction sizes lower than it would have otherwise to accommodate the settlement of those auctions, which were announced today and kept at their recent sizes. We think that explains the $4.0 billion cut in the 52-week bill announced today. Once the debt limit is increased, we think the Treasury will be ramping up bill auction sizes pretty aggressively. We will discuss that in more detail next week in our projections of Treasury borrowing needs for the next two quarters.

The table above summarizes our cash flow projections for the first two weeks of August, assuming that there has been no increase in the debt ceiling. The projections assume that Treasury will be able to at least roll over maturing debt on August 4, 11 and 15. That's probably becoming a more questionable assumption given all of the statements coming from the rating agencies. As the table shows, we now show Treasury with a negative cash balance of $15.5 billion on August 15, which implies that Treasury wouldn't have the resources to pay $30.6 billion in interest on that day.

If our projections are fairly accurate at this point, we still think the Treasury has enough options available to scrape together the extra cash to make the interest payment. Treasury has provided less detailed information than we would like on how much of its extraordinary measures it has used to create borrowing authority. Last Friday, Treasury announced that it would suspend the reinvestment of securities issued to the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and that by doing so, it was using the "last of the four previously announced measures available to keep our nation under the statutory debt limit."

Where can Tim Geithner squeeze a few last pennies from?

Again, Treasury hasn't been all that explicit about how much of each option has been used. But we're going to assume that, by August 2, it will have used all of the borrowing authority created by measures related to the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, the G-Fund, and the Exchange Stabilization Fund. That would leave $5.0 billion that could be created by redeeming the remaining $5.0 billion in bills in the Supplementary Financing Program Account. An announcement regarding SFP could come on Monday.

Treasury could also replace some Treasuries held by the Civil Service fund with debt of the Federal Financing Bank, which would create about $4.8 billion in borrowing authority. Treasury has given short shrift in various statements about using the Federal Financing Bank, saying it wouldn't create a significant amount of borrowing authority. But if you're trying to scrape together $15.5 billion to make an interest payment, $4.8 billion gets you 30% of the way there.

Finally, if Congress hasn't increased the debt limit by August 2, Treasury Secretary Geithner would be on solid ground in extending the length of the Debt Issuance Suspension Period (DISP), which would allow Treasury to make further use of the CSRDF. Declaring that he expected the DISP to last another month, for instance, would provide Treasury immediately with another $6.0 billion in borrowing authority.

In sum, Treasury is going to start August with less cash than we thought previously. We still think Treasury could probably pay its obligations through August 15, but it's become a much closer call.

Bottom line: if there really is no debt deal today, the August 15 coupon payment is looking increasingly shaky.

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gdogus erectus's picture

Exactly - how do we hi-jack this dumb-ass meme and vector the sheeple to ZH?  Then again, many a first timer to this site is all - WTF?.  Don't understand the TLA's, tits for avatars, sarcasm that's so fucking good even regulars are not sure if the questions are serious.  Where's Oslo?  God that's funny.

camaro68ss's picture

Transitory traditions bitchez! Traditions are Cheap, you can dig them out of the ground for $5.

Now that’s funny

metastar's picture

Class Warfare Bitchez!

99.9 to 0.1!

TaxSlave's picture


They can effin' well stop spending elsewhere on that day.

If they default, it'll be 'strategic default'.

To stampede the herd. Get in line, curs!

HungrySeagull's picture

Default already so we can get moving.

PlausibleDenial's picture

Interestingly, I forward ZH links to clients and friends.  My clients know that I read it.  I still have some left.  My friends, well they look at me as if I am crazy and, in fact, I don't get invited to do much these days.  I now have new friends that I met at  gun shows.  Go figure.

SilverDosed's picture

+1, although I like the friends I met at coin shows more.

cossack55's picture

I find they are usually the same group.

gdogus erectus's picture

Yeah - it's cost me a couple job opportunities now that I'm job hunting.  My "buddies" are like - we don't want your gloomy ass around.  Nearly lost the wife.  Now I just keep my mouth shut unless someone asks and then I try to keep it short.  I got through to several people and they are prepared.  The rest will come knocking when they're hungry.

msamour's picture

Let them eat lead, that is what I'll give them.

johny2's picture

I will likely always remember a story I was told by a guy from Ukraine that I met. He had a huge scar all over his belly from taking a close range hit from AK47, which he somehow survived. Story is set in Ukraine after Soviet Union collapse. Guy asked his good friend to borrow him money, than when he got the cash, he used part of that same money to pay hitman to kill friend from whom he borrowed that same money, so he can keep the rest. If the dollar collapses, it is going to be best if no one knows that you have PM.

Toolshed's picture

I'm here because, well......isn't this where all the tools are?

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Couldn't happen to a better country.

Long-John-Silver's picture

If there is actually a default and the central government can't feed the States Dollars, secession becomes a viable option.

Texas will go followed almost immediately by the old 13 Confederate States. These 14 States never officially rejoined the Union after the ceasefire was signed. All they need do is declare their freedom from the union and close the borders. Many more States will follow making their own alliances with neighboring States and declare their freedom as well. This happened after the Soviet Union collapsed so don't think it can't happen to US as well. The only thing holding the Union together  are Dollar subsidies from D.C.

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Which states will leagalize pot? I am moving there.


I am The Chief.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

I wil be willing to bet (intrade anyone?) that itwould be one of the 16 states that allow it medically. 

Helix6's picture

Who cares?  It's the new DADT.

Lednbrass's picture

I certainly hope so, as it is we have several internal sub-nations continually at political war with each other. It would be best for all concerned, the south is to the US as the Ukraine was to the old Soviet Union.

Hope the Northerners like Bernanke (courtesy of their dear friends in South Carolina), we didnt tell you but he is actually a long term Sons of Confederate Veterans/League of the South project raised and trained for years under the highly secret Operation Vengeance, Codename: Greenback.

He who laughs last laughs best, Yankee bitchez.

Helix6's picture

Yikes!  All you black folks down there might think about where you might want to move to.  Unless the idea of slavery appeals to you.  The real kind.  Not the financial kind.

Lednbrass's picture

While I would certainly donate bus fare to anyone who wanted to leave, its worth considering that blacks only were brought here for one reason- they were farm equipment. We have tractors and cotton gins, what would be the point?

sullymandias's picture

at least a real slave knows whats what

earnulf's picture

Texas won't go, it's among the states that get more from the Fed's than what they pay in and the CSA died in 1865.

There might be talk of seccession, but that's all it will be, same for Cali which is a fedgov teat whore.

Not to say that things aren't going to get mighty interesting, but like the tv shows, there are plots within plots within schemes within whatever that will be trotted out until the folks say enough is enough and break out the ropes and pitchforks.

A lot of folks going to go off grid, might be a good idea to dust off the foxfire books as well.    Self-Reliance is going to take on a whole new meaning.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

+True - Perry has brought up the idea to be seen as a true small government politician.  Perry - the political posturing prick - nothing more, plenty less.

Animal Cracker's picture

Cali is a fed gov teat whore only if you ignore what Cali sends to the Feds.

Despite the "gifts" from Uncle Suck, it's a net loss for California.

wisefool's picture

If you consider a wonder of the modern world (the hoover dam and associated infrastrucutre, and upkeep  for the watershed southwest of the rockies) a "gift" then yeah you are right.

Otherwise the land of fruits and nuts would be the land of cacti and tumbleweed.

Animal Cracker's picture

I don't really consider the Hoover Dam a gift, since it was built with a loan from the UST that was paid in full by taxing electricity users.  

Besides, I thought we were talking about this generation.

wisefool's picture

Good point. In those days debt was used to accomplish useful,productive and lasting things.

In this generation, we get bubbles and very calculated,self escalating, divide and conquer social enginering techniques.

baby_BLYTHE's picture


Speaking to your first point, Webster Griffin Tarpley pretty much nails it.


My dear Congressman –

The American people are not interested in Obama’s Grand Bargain or the Gang of Six plan, which are cowardly and dishonest attacks on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, jobless benefits, and other vital programs. Cuts in these programs will not reduce the deficit, but they will kill Americans. Such cuts represent a veiled form of genocide. We want to save money by ending all the wars, including Obama’s fiasco in Libya. We want the repeal of the failed Bush tax cuts. We want to see Wall Street forced to pay their fair share through a Tobin tax or Wall Street Sales Tax of 1%, with half the proceeds kept by the US Treasury and the other half distributed to the states to stabilize budgets and protect social services. We want the most toxic derivatives — including credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations — banned, as they were from 1936 to 1982. We want a recovery and jobs program in the New Deal FDR tradition, all financed by 0% federal credit from a nationalized Federal Reserve. Reactionary Republicans and Tea Party fanatics need to be fought, not appeased. As for the ratings agencies, they should be on trial for their malfeasance of 2008, and not dictating policy to the US government. If Obama thinks he can get re-elected by catering to Wall Street and by betraying his own base to pander to those morally confused independents, he will meet the fate of Jimmy Carter. Any Democrat who votes to weaken entitlements must expect to be primaried and ousted. We urge you to call McConnell’s bluff and avoid the cataclysm of default by passing a clean bill to raise (or, better, abolish) the debt ceiling with NO CUTS to our hard-won New Deal and Great Society economic rights.

Webster G. Tarpley Ph.D.

Westcoastliberal's picture

Mr. Tarpley is off to a great start; I'd add let's eliminate DHS, DEA, decriminalize cannabis and legalize hemp, revolk the prison sentences of those incarcerated for simple possession or petty dealing, and pass a bill that makes it a felony to attempt to influence any member of Con-gress unless you reside in their district.

HungrySeagull's picture

Hoover Dam was a very stimulating technical problem in trucking, what with the Jake Brake and all... You have to consider that they refridgerated the whole damn thing to get it to cure quickly instead of 120+ years.

DosZap's picture

Kali, is just a Flat out whore.

Always has been, always will be, just like NYC, and Chicago.

Vampires, all of them...........

Long-John-Silver's picture

it's among the states that get more from the Fed's than what they pay in


Your argument is flawed. All the Southern States get more money than they contribute.

That has been the wildly successful work of Southern Political Patriots sense the early 1960's. Why not bankrupt the Union with their own money and stupidity.

When the States are no longer receiving any money they will leave. Think about it a little while.

Sweet Secession's picture

The only government we need, police, EMS, schools (questionable), parks, water etc are provided by LOCAL governments. The Federal Government, with it's vast taxing power is truly the emporer with no clothes. 

wisefool's picture

snark: People who work for 501c tax free entities usually wear the finest clothes availible. Not that 50/50% drab polyester blends of cops/EMTs.

Are two opposing 501c corporations (lobbyist groups for political parties)  that are free from taxation by the government, a part of the government?

If a corporation like G.E. has 1000 people dedicated to work on tax avoidance, and consequently pay negative taxes, where does the government get the money to pay a WPA worker to make sure the taxes are properly assessed?

If a bear shits in the woods, do you really need to cover it with a TARP?

Does G.E. own 49% of CNBC & MSNBC?

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Which states will leagalize pot? I am moving there.

I am The Chief.

Re-Discovery's picture

As a non-partisan, I would find it the height of hilarity if this whole think is taken to the brink by the Tea Party 'fruitcakes' who were dismissed in summary during the last election cycle. 

Regardless of what the 'power that be' say about how this all should happen, thes folks really do think they are in the middle of a 2nd revolution.  And they might just be the ones who set it off!

Lednbrass's picture

It would be the 3rd actually. Round 2 was won by the statists and equality instituted by changing from a system where part of the population were slaves of the super wealthy to one where all of the population are slaves of he super wealthy.

DosZap's picture


WHY, are they FRUITCAKES?.

Seems to me they are the only ones remotely trying to save this sinking ship from the PTB.

These folks are middle America, conservatives,democrats,liberals, libertarians,republicans, the whole shit n kaboodle .

You need to stop watching MSM, and reading/watching the U.K. shit.


V in PA's picture

Remember Henny-Penny:

We are all being lead to the dark cave by this administration / FED. The sky is not falling. There will be no default. The only reason they want to borrow more money is to steal more from us to pay the interest, which goes directly into their pockets.

Cast of characters:
Henny-Penny = CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street
Ducky – Cocky and Goosey = Tax payers
Foxy = Ben Bernanke, Obama, Boehner, Geithner, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley et al…

Arthor Bearing's picture

I didn't think it would really happen. The idea of giving the executive power to raise the debt ceiling unilaterally has been floated already, and I bet that's how this will be addressed (lazy coward congress once again). I think congress will pull all the stops out to keep from default, with the exception to crafting a clear plan to deal with the debt.

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

I too view this as a very likely scenario. My question to the house and senate, if they decide to hand the reigns over to Huesein Obama is - "If you aren't going to do your job, why in the FUCK would we pay your salary? Do your job you bunch of ass hat fags!"

I am The Chief. 

JLee2027's picture


And it would have to be approved by Congress first. I don't see it happening. For Congress to hand it's power to the President is suicidal and probably unconstitutional anyway.

Long-John-Silver's picture

We already have several thousand laws that are unconstitutional.

rwe2late's picture

What makes you think "Congress would have to approve it first"? The president already has "emergency" powers.

 The likely scenario, as I have previously posted:

Obama declares authority to raise the debt limit as an "emergency" measure to avoid economic calamity.

Congress (mostly Republicans) will then attempt to pass a measure disallowing Obama's executive action. Even if they are able to pass that measure through Congress, they will be unable to over-ride a presidential veto.

It's a win-win for the politicians. Obama gathers more executive power, and gets to claim he saved the nation from disaster. Republicans get to claim they voted against incurring more debt.


 But no matter how the two plutocrat parties together 'win' the  debt ceiling standoff,

we can be quite certain who the biggest losers will be.


Tortfeasor's picture

Never heard that one before...nice idea.  So plausible it just loosened my bowels. 

-Michelle-'s picture

"This suspense is killing me.  I hope it lasts."