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The Republican Portfolio
Let’s say the Republicans take everything in November, what will it mean for your portfolio? This is an easy call to make. Expect a dramatic roll back of the leftward policies the country has adopted over the last two years, and a sudden revival of the industries that have suffered as a result. In fact, if you look at the charts below, many of the stocks I am suggesting have already started to discount a conservative win.
Big oil companies will be huge winners. American oil imports from the Middle East will accelerate, where the industry earns 80% of its profits. That will bring peak oil sooner, easily taking crude over $100/barrel quickly, and eventually to $150 or $200. Restrictions on both onshore and offshore drilling will get rolled back to their Bush era laissez faire levels, cutting costs and boosting profitability. So what if someone dumps a million barrels of oil on your beach. Suck it up and move inland. The stuff goes away by itself any way. You want to own Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobile (XOM), Conoco Phillips (COP), and of course, BP (BP). The drilling and service companies, like Transocean (RIG) and Diamond Offshore (DO), should do spectacularly well.
Coal will benefit immensely from relaxed environmental regulation, paving the way for more exports to China. You want to own Peabody Energy (BTU) and Joy Global (JOYG). Nuclear Energy is a big beneficiary here, which should drive you into Shaw Group (SHAW) and top uranium producer Cameco (CCJ). Forget about natural gas companies, like Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Devon Energy (DVN). Relaxed environmental controls will stonewall restrictions on the new fracking technology that is unleashing huge supplies on the market, driving prices for CH4 to the basement.
You can count on subsidies for alternative energy to get axed as unaffordable luxuries, which have created 500,000 jobs in California alone in the past two years. After all, global warming is nothing more than a leftist hoax, right? The good news is that the higher oil prices Republican policies are guaranteed to bring means that green companies of every stripe will become profitable in their own right, making subsidies unnecessary. Remember, Bush policies took crude from $20/barrel to $150, topping up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at the absolute peak. Buy First Solar (FSLR) on the knee jerk sell off after the election.
The Republican portfolio should also have a heavy weighting in defense companies, as an expanded war against terrorism means we will be fighting more wars in more places for longer. Pakistan is a sure thing, if we aren’t there already, and Iran is just a matter of time. Any shopping list should include Northrop Grumman (NOC), Raytheon (RTN), Boing (BA), United Technology (UTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and General Dynamics (GD). Also prospering mightily will be the makers of prosthetic limbs for the military, like Zimmer Holdings (ZMH).
Health care is a natural. It is unlikely that we could see a complete abolition of Obama care until 2016 at the earliest. But a Republican win in the House would eliminate the possibility of any expansion of socialized medicine. Health care companies like United Health (UNH), Humana (HUM), and Pfizer (PFE) will do well.
The government’s war on for profit education will grind to a complete halt (click here for my last piece at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/august-18-2010.html ). With a tidal wave of government subsidized loans to the industry assured, and hapless students stuck with the bill, companies like DeVry (DV), Strayer Education (STRA), and Corinthian Colleges (COCO) will rocket.
Major tax cuts for the top 3% of income earners costing $700 billion over ten years and more loopholes for corporations pared with increased defense spending promise to send federal deficits through the roof. That will last bring an end to the 30 year bull market in Treasury bonds, which are teetering as I write this. The double short Treasury ETF (TBT) will have to be a core holding in any long term portfolio.
As the two parties are diametrically and violently opposed to each other on virtually every issue, the impact of a regime change on the economy and the markets promises to be huge. I could write on this for days, so these are just the high points.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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You are on point there my little winged-hat dude (also one of my favorite dimes). If the Repubs don't start getting on the same page of the hymnal it's going to be the demise of the party. Wait, wouldn't that be good? Now, how can we destroy the Democrats as well.
Confiscate all of the Decepticratic Credit Cards!
As the two parties are diametrically and violently opposed to each other on virtually every issue"""""
This is almost as funny as the bullshit about the 500,000 "green" jobs. Damn dude are you for real?
Both parties are the same shit! We have Pesi or Coke.
Owned by the banksters and controlled by same crooks. Until we destroy the Federal Reserve we are fucked.
"Pesi [sic] or Coke"
¡oye! that's my line!
Yeah,
and MHFT trader passes the "are the same shit!" smell test everytime.
"Both parties are the same shit!"
Yeah,
and MHFT trader passes the "are the same shit!" smell test everytime.
"Expect a dramatic roll back of the leftward policies the country has adopted over the last two years, and a sudden revival of the industries that have suffered as a result."
Do you mean the extension of the Patriot Act, the re-appointment of Bernanke, the 'end' of the war in Iraq and Afghan, selecting Timmy & Larry as your chief economic advisors, the prosecution of torturers, etc, etc, etc...? I'm afraid I missed all the leftward policies. Perhaps you can point them out.
"I'm afraid I missed all the leftward policies. Perhaps you can point them out."
I _think_ he means the flow of tax dollars to
TBTF banks, while smaller firms are neglected
union retirees, while the mass of main street is ignored
gov employees, while people with private sector jobs are drained
TBTF bailouts were introduced by Bush, and engineered by 30 years of rightward policies. That other BS you mention is peanuts.
"We are prepared to put $800,000,000,000 of taxpayer money on the line..."
What a fool. The sad part is there are some bigger fools that will take this seriously.
He seems to be unaware that POTUS is not up for re-election in November. None of what he suggests CAN be passed without him you dope.
Can you also splain why a greater supply of nat gas means lower prices but a greater supply of oil means higher prices.....you idiot?
500,000 jobs....really?
What will happen is for about 6 months or maybe a year is that no "stimulus" spending will occur driving down the markets for a while until the repubs can't take the heat anymore and fire up the spending again.
Why does ZH print this crap?
If the Republicons do take the House & Senate, it will be back to gridlock, with Obamatron and the Decepticrats becoming the "Party of NO!" At least that's better than a runaway gravy train! So in summary:
Republicons in control(?), gridlock, while the Economy dives to 20,000 leagues or,
Decepticrats in control(?), spending more FRNs till the Economy implodes at crush depth.
Wish I could be as optimistic as this guy/gal!
I dunno. Fool? Idiot? Crap? I've made a decent amount of money over the last 12 months following MHFT. That counts even more than gratuitous opinions.
ZH prints this crappy because ZH DeSpite all of the good and truth spreading it accomplishes There is a strong tinge of anti American rhetoric Tyler may yet witnesses what the average American of capable of Witness teaparty Delaware rush limbaugh and glen beck
500K green jobs created in CA seems like quite a stretch but in any case I don't think they are the alt-energy sort of GREEN...
I think that they are a different sort of GREEN. <cough, cough>
500,000 jobs....really?
Yea really..... 500,000 jobs... except the jobs were created in china where they actually manufacture the panels and other solar shit!!
Woulda,
No, Obammy is not up for re-election, but the same things can be accomliished by DEFUNDING his shit.
If they get the majority, they will.Problem is Tea Party folks are taking out RINO's and the GOP establishment is pissed off, and refusng to fund them, and help them against Dem opponents.
This is a BAD omen for the GOP.
TP people are either GOP, or Ex GOP, Independents,and very conservative.
They represent the American (millions,untold millions) who have had it with the Politics as usual shit.
IF the GOP does not suppport these folks who have, are winning, on the GOP tickets.....
It won't matter the PEOPLE are voting them in,I strongly suggest the GOP back these folks, or they may find themselves having a three way war with them, and the Dems in the House, and Senate......
RINO's, have to go............if this country is to survive,radical shit has to be changed NOW.
I get what you're saying but we have to keep our eye on the big picture here. GOP will hose us just as bad as the Dems if it serves there personal self interest. Ripping on GOP or Dems is pointless because they stand for nothing more than that. They WANT us to pick a side and ignore the real issues.
97 Senators signed the repeal of Glass Steagall and a Dem president signed it. NONE of them CARE about the interests of the country.
So I say let them ignore the Tea Partiers. Let them ignore us. But when this thing finally blows, we better be there to pick up the pieces - or someone else will.
A Republican win in November won't change anything unless the GOP gets veto-proof majorities. Otherwise every attempt to roll back Democratic initiatives, including the disastrous bills that will likely get passed during the lame-duck session after the elections, will fail and the laws remain on the books.
Thank you.
you guys are idiots. He is not saying you are gonna get pops in these stocks over night, but they are what should be invested in for the longer term. You know...more than 30 seconds at a time.
If the Republicans win this Novemeber and win big...IT IS HEALTHY TO ASSUME they will win in 2012, and that means the removal of the Idiot in Charge.
In that case he is correct and you guys should apologize to the entire crew at ZH for being pricks.
@ curb,
Who the hell are you calling idiots, you douche. If the R's win BIG in November, the only thing that's going to happen is hardcore austerity (I'm personally fine with that) that will only only hasten to bring on the inevitable crash. By the time 2012 rolls around, Dem's will be primed to point the finger at R's austerity and scream about how much the lack of stimulus has hurt the little guy.
The best thing that can possibly happen to Obama's election chances in 2012 is a big win in November for the R's.
Either way, we'll be lucky if elections as we know them exist in 2012.
<insert doom and gloom and more doom here>
So you're saying Republicans win big and take us back to the penny-pinching days of GW?
As Barney Frank would say, "Please don't tease me like that, I'm getting an ewection."
I imagine there was a time when the Romans looked back fondly on Nero and Caligula as well.
"you guys are idiots." "stocks" "invested in for the longer term."
Irony.
+1
Give him a break, though. He still thinks the two parties make their decisions based on what's best for the country instead of their own personal acquisition of power.
Until he and the rest of the sheeple out there figure that out, these idiotic posts will continue.
It's fair to say that some improvement in conditions for these industries would occur.
I'd agree that it isn't like Reps or Dems really give a shit about any of us. Christ, even the Tea Partiers are looking to line their own pockets somehow because they are, by and large, incompetent boobs.
But SOME of what they are saying, and want to accomplish, is good for the country. And it's those parts which I believe will make a bit of MHFT's post correct.
Oblamea can say and do what he wants, but if the Reps control House and Senate....he's little more than Clinton without the women and without the gravitas. In effect, he's a political eunuch. Good luck governing from the top with that situation.
His health care abomination will likely be repealed or at least curtailed...and that's a good thing.
Beyond that - neither party is good for the US. We are desperately in need of a legitimate moderate 3rd party. Fiscally conservative, socially liberal. Always the way to be.
+10 .. MHFT and Leo are becoming must-skip posts around here.
You nailed it.
MHFT is obviously a "Progressive" capitalist. Isn't that an oxymoron?
Let me fix that for you:
He sure seems to think that there is a difference amongst the congressional whores.
Hey, check it out...the dems got a brand new O-Ring...I guess the old One is getting a little worn out...ROTFLMAO!!!
http://assets.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/politics/New%20DNC%20logo...
You forgot all the stocks related to Homeland Security. There will be a lot of civil unrest to control and neutralize if your predictions come true.
ASEI