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I have been saying this for months.
Why no one here trusts the GOVERNMENT AND THE FED???
Can they FIX IT? YES WE CAN!!
that default will make us an even safer haven? ROTFL
What makes us a safe haven right now?
A u6 unemployment rate of 17% with a national debt of 15 trillion (not even counting GSE debt) and 60 trillion in unfunded liabilities?
Every American owes over $500,000 (not including GSE debt) and that makes us a safe haven?
This doesn't even account for the debt problems at the municipal level, which is a quagmire in it's own right.
We need to raise taxes across the board and massively cut spending, or, we need to default.
Our situation is untenable.
"We need to raise taxes across the board and massively cut spending, or, we need to default."
Agreed, in theory; however, the current FedGov, as constituted in the 20th and 21th Century, has abolutely proven itself untrustworthy and unreliable in following through. Tax increases will be promptly followed with spending increases.
The FedGov needs to be deposed.
Taleb has explained how our reliance on debt has increased the fragility of our economic edifice. Default would send the whole thing tumbling downward, which I would consider a good thing. May the rain wash all of the dumb fucks away, and maybe we'll do it better the next time around the ol' 5000 year cycle
The fact that we have not defaulted in hundreds of years.
That is IT.
Yes, our situation is untenable, but a default puts into action a series of events that ends with the destruction of US living standards via a mechanism of US Dollar hyperinflation, likely accompanied by hyperinflation in several other major currencies.
But you keep holding those dollars. You deserve each other.
Not necessarily. If a default causes us as a nation to have an adult conversation and to determine that we will no longer spend beyond our means, than a default would be deflationary and result in stability rather than hyperinflation. I don't expect that to happen. I expect the bond market to impose fiscal discipline at some point.
What's $1.4 trillion a year between friends? Just a dollar every business day from every human on the planet, not including roll-over refinancing. Sounds like one of those 'you can stop this child from starving today' commercials, oh wait, never mind.
agreed, I do not have my PHD in economics, but I fail to see how a default of any sort will create a safe haven.Maybe longer term but there would be some serious short term pain and buyers of debt would disappear. Reserve currency status would be gone forever.
Seems possible to have cuts in spending and meet debt obligations. CUT military quick.
<sigh> this isn't going to end well in any direction selected it's just simply too late. the time to have let it crash and burn was after dot.com (bomb). With all the other annoyances going on, congress is just saying to it's US investors that they are ready to bounce checks on them and jack up interest rates to double digits again. Because this is exactly what is going to happen to curb the borrowing the only way to stop it is to jack up rates.
Double digit interest rates on 14.5 Trillion in debt becomes nearly exponential, even at 7% interest while adding another 2 trillion a year. In 5 years the US will end up with around 32-33 trillion in outstanding debt.
In someways congress knows what it's doing. Althought it should have been doing it 12 years ago during the Clinton timeframe.
"Double digit interest rates on 14.5 Trillion in debt"
And you're not even counting State debt or the debt coming due with SS and Medicare.
We'll have default after default, unlimited confett where it becomes cheaper to us bills for wall paper rather than wallpaperi, or war... Maybe all three...
Like a string of firecrackers, default after default.
The problem with the debt limit is a regulatory problem, not an economic problem.
As I've said, the world is ruled by men, not holy words. Thus the debt ceiling will be hiked. If it is not done by the Congress, it will be done by an Obama Executive Order exploiting some forgotten loophole in the Presidential powers, in case of an "imminent peril", stuff like that.
Those words confuse me coming from you.....I will junk you, not because I disagree, but because I never did junk Harry.
It wouldn't surprised me in the least if Obama uses the Patriot Act to extend the debt ceiling. I'd look at it as being just another fascistic act by Adolf Obama.
Where were you when Bush raised it ten times, practically every year and sometimes twice a year. And I seem to recall not being in a dire siutation then where the gov't had to spend record amounts to keep the food stamps coming so people dont starve. I know, I know: They should eat cake. But seriously anyne who didnt say a peep about debt in the 00s should shut up now since that crushes their credibility and exposes them as partisian. If the tables were turned, and GWB was still Pres and needed to raise the roof, half the naysayers would be crying about Dems putting troops in danger. The hypocrisy is astounding. This doesnt apply to everyone but it sure does apply to a lot of the hacks on this board...I remember when ZH was all about economics and business; those were the days. Now we've been invaded by infidels who only care about politics and division and hate.
The debt limit can be raised continuously as long the rate of increase doesn't exceed GDP growth.
That is clearly no longer the case, especially when only "real" GDP is considered by subtracting government deficit spending.
There is no GDP growth once once you back the debt back out.
GDP = C+I+G+X. Borrowing money to increase G (government spending) has increased the GDP. GDP has not increased from consumption, investment or net exports in real terms over the past 30-ish years.
Rob Arnott disagrees with you: http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/muddle-through-or-crisis/
GDP minus government debt has been growing up until about 2008.
GDP minus all debt has been negative for 30+ years; however, it is not necessarily the case that that an increase in "all debt" is counted in GDP. In fact, there are a lot of examples where an increase in non-government debt is NOT included in GDP. So simply subtracting these two values does not provide a reflection on the "real" (non-government driven) economy.
As an example, mortgaging a paid-off property increases non-governement debt but does not add to GDP, so subtracting this debt from GDP doesn't indicate anything about the real economy.
The President cannot raise the debt ceiling by Executive Order or any other magical invented method.
But he can send troops without congressional approval. the office of the president becomes more dictatorship-like with each successive administration.
That would be a GREAT reason to do away with the ACT altogether.
I am all for it.If Adolph Jr uses his imaginary powers.
I squish your head Hamy....
I agree with your premise simply because Obama has become a de facto dictator. Congress has no power at all now. They can do nothing but make noise.
Could you please list his dictaorial powers? I mean I just want to double check cause of that Obama sniper that killed that kid and then tortured him. Oh wait, that was Syria, which is just like here, a police state. Hell I can't leave my house without passing a column of tanks and piles of dead bodies, aka the tea party dissenters that Obama killed in South Carolina with his thugs. remeber that?
In gold we trust
In stainless steel we trust:
$1000 trash cans for the Detroit library! We gots lots a money!
Obama is president. We gets whatever we aks for.
If we default will we have to bring the mercs....I mean troops home?
Wouldn't that just increase the unemployment rate?
We have always been at war with unemployment.
Why would it increase unemployment? These people have contracts for years promised to serve. We could put them on our boarders both for protection and to build a fence. That would keep them busy for a while.
They'll be needed to grow food wham we can't afford gas... And to keep order when interest rate driven hoarding of $$ begins.
Uh, hey, I bet you hate Obama given your border talk even though nobody said anythinng about that excuse for a fence Pres. Bush erected. I apologize if Im wrong. In any event, there is a law called Possee Comitatus and US troops can not act that way and start enforcing laws: that's the Guard and the states problem.
Hell, if DOE has the power to order out a SWAT team for a non paying Student loan recipient,(fking UNREAL,can any of you really believe that shit?,I am sorry, I cannot)we could use them for collection of non payment of traffic fines...........hell yeah.
Are you serious? They can do that? Have they done it. If so, nevermind a previous comment, that is unreal and flat out tyrannical. What's next: debotr's prisons? Oh wait, it's called being a wage slave now, though iPods make it bearable lol I'm no wage slave; i love my job. But I feel for the people who have shit jobs that make them miserable. I understand they should have done more, but still a living wage would level out the animosity sweeping our country like black clouds creepping overhead in the sky. I know the gov't can't set wage levels as it would kill business, but it would be nice if some of the more profitable companies, yes I'm looking at you Wal-Mart, paid employees more and for that matter hired a better cass of workers. You know, ones that actually work and when you ask a question don't just pit you to Aisle D5, subset 6B. Wherever the hell that is.
Yes they just did in CA:
BTW, isn't the express purpose of a for-profit company to produce profit for its shareholders? Thus keeping employee wages low is part of achieving that purpose. If there is another company that can produce equivalent profits while paying employees more, wouldn't said Walmart employees go work for the other company?
for-profit companies are run to produce profits for management and executives now.
Not disaggreeing, but it depends on the company. The shareholders of companies that do not distribute part of the profits are being duped.
There are also non-publicly traded companies...
Not if we continue the war at home. The troops are constantly at war on the road, I've heard they're undefeated. Lets bring'em back and continue the war at home. Get up, eat breakfast, drive to war. Problem solved. Full employment.
Who's side would military personal take? Before commenting read this article.
Remember, we have a Volunteer military now.
Whoever pays 'em. Probably Lloyd Blankfein.
It's funny to me that you use the term "big turn for the worst" when in fact it appears that the adults might finally be taking charge. The GOP calling this bluff is surprising, given the lack of testicular fortitude they have on so many other issues. I wish them well and godspeed.
Indeed. Now we're (finally) talking.
pray for default. Pray that we have the morality to refuse to put further debt on our children.
I'm not so sure it's a bluff - its more his aversion to the bitter medicine the warfare/welfare state is going to have to swallow if it is to survive at all. Don't think for a minute it won't be ugly, though...
it appears that the adults might finally be taking charge.
You may be right. I fear insufficient adults, time or fortitude.
The politics of the budget are the key issues moving forward, all this other stuff is incidental until this is resolved.
Either way it is going to be seriously ugly.
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