Rescue Rangers Scramble: Goldman Rushes To Prevent Mass Exodus From Conviction List Hotel Applecornia, Says To BTFD

Tyler Durden's picture

Ta-tata-daaaaa: Captain Goldmanerica is here to save the day. Can't have 190 hedge funds checking out from hotel Applecornia, now can we.

From Goldman's Bill Shope, CFA though we are not sure what the F stands for... certainly not Facebook after today...

What's changed

On Monday morning, Apple released an internal email from Steve Jobs where he noted that the board had granted him medical leave from the company to focus on his health. Mr. Jobs will remain CEO and he will continue to be involved in major strategic decisions for the company. He also noted he hopes to be back at Apple full time as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Tim Cook, Apple’s Chief Operating Officer, will be responsible for day to day management of the company in Mr. Jobs’ absence.


While the stock is likely to face near-term pressure, we believe the longterm fundamentals remain intact and we would reiterate our Conviction Buy on any weakness. This is based on the following key points we detail in this note: 1) The management team remains strong, and we believe investors would embrace Tim Cook in any potential succession plan; 2) Apple’s $51 billion in cash and investments could be partially distributed to shareholders to stabilize the shares; 3) The multiple of 15.1X already represents a significant historical discount, and we see no direct risk to earnings from this move. As a result, we are reiterating our CL-Buy on Apple and our 12-month target price of $430.


Our target price represents a 19X P/E multiple on our above-consensus CY2010 EPS estimate or a 19% discount to Apple’ five-year average multiple of 23X.

Key risks

The key risks to our target include: macro deterioration, increased platform competition, potential legal and regulatory restrictions, and uncertain management succession plans.

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Nolsgrad's picture

they missed one on "key risks"


death, I hear it's a real bitch

Trimmed Hedge's picture

I'd say more like -6%....

knukles's picture

Fuckin'-A dude!  You'd be long a lot of Timmahs!

Moonrajah's picture

And here I was naively thinking it was a more Squidesque:





Cursive's picture

Buy. The. Fucking. Dip.

How have you missed this?

CD's picture

That would be Buy The Fucking Dip. For clarification, see:

Rusty Shorts's picture

The term Golden Age (Χρυσ?ν Γ?νος) comes from Greek mythology and legend and refers to the first in a sequence of four or five (or more) Ages of Man, in which the Golden Age is first, followed in sequence, by the Silver, Bronze, and Iron Ages, and then the present, a period of decline. By extension "Golden Age" denotes a period of primordial peace, harmony, stability, and prosperity.


[Men] lived like gods without sorrow of heart, remote and free from toil and grief: miserable age rested not on them; but with legs and arms never failing they made merry with feasting beyond the reach of all devils. When they died, it was as though they were overcome with sleep, and they had all good things; for the fruitful earth unforced bare them fruit abundantly and without stint. They dwelt in ease and peace upon their lands with many good things, rich in flocks and loved by the blessed gods.

CD's picture

Thanks, Rusty, though I suspect you may have been trying to answer someone else's response. 

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Buy the fucking dip, you fucking idiot, and you can make money, too.

rocker's picture

Need not worry, they are already short. They never make bad trades. Just like Bernie Madoff. Will cover next week.

Nolsgrad's picture

I'm just spouting the truth. without a succession plan and the only perception of Apple is "steve jobs" it's a fact.

deal with it.

asteroids's picture

First guy to dump wins! If Apple was so so strong they wouldn't need GS to pump the stock on a holiday now would they. If the economy was so so strong we wouldn't need QE2 now would we. Those hedge funds aren't beholding to anyone and they'll book a profit less they lose it to someone else.

HedgeYourself's picture

What happened, now ?

On Saturday evening, Apple released a public statement, based on email from Steve Jobs’s coroner, where he noted that mr. Jobs has passed away after having been fatally injured from a gunshot wound to the head. Mr Jobs was reportedly assassinated by Jared Loughner, now awaiting trial for Arizona shootings, while released with 1 Trillion dollar bail.

As a surprise twist to recent events, Mr Loughner’s bail was posted by Federal Reserve, which chairman Dr.(Econ.) Ben Bernanke had these comments on reasoning to back up Mr. Loughner “As per the FED mandate allowed by Federal Reserve Act section 13(3) rules associated with individuals, posting the bail for Mr. Loughner was natural progression of our ongoing efforts to help stimulate US economy. Mr. Loughner was considered flight risk by the prosecutor’s office, and due to unusually high bail combined with high perceived risk, he was left with little options to raise the bail money from private sources. As 1T$ bail is considered to have a substantial stimulative effect on GPD, FED decided to take this opportunity to add Mr. Loughner to our portfolio of risk assets. Additional benefit of adding this new asset class to fed’s portfolio is risk diversification. In the case that Mr. Jared’s bail was actually paid back, it would substantially improve the performance expectation of our entire asset portfolio.” Dr. (Econ.) Bernanke continued with the following positive note: “We were also able to conduct a proper due diligence meeting with Mr. Jared prior to his release mainly to assess a risk that he will ‘do something stupid’ after his potential release. While meeting with him, we took an opportunity to get his views on the recent movements on gold prices, which has greatly buzzled the FOMC participants, and . Mr. Jared provided great insights on gold valuation in USD’s, and we are already in process of incorporating our limited understanding of his highly complex thought processes in our econometric models. We expect that this new information will be invaluable, and will form a key influence on settling the FED monetary policy in the near future.”

As the result of this partially unfortunate and certainly unforeseen (by most) progression of events, Apple’s board had granted Mr. Jobs a long-term part-time non-medical leave of absence from the company to focus on charging his batteries and other ethereal activities. Mr. Jobs will remain CEO and he will continue to be involved in all major strategic decisions for the company. He also noted he hopes to be back at Apple for part time visits in some form, as soon as allowed by Satan. In the meantime, mr Jobs will remain firmly in control of key day-to-day operations through email and video chat sessions from his iPhone.

So, what ?

While the stock is likely to face near-term pressure, we believe the long term fundamentals are now better than ever, and we would reiterate our Conviction Buy on any near-term weakness that may materialize due to the complexity and unconventional nature of the recent events. This is based on the following key points we detail in this note: 1) The management team remains strong forever; 2) Apple will immediately release a blacker black editions of iPhone, iPad, and iPod (with some bug fixes and prompt introduction of associated brand new bugs) to both mourn and celebrate the loss/victory, leading to anticipated substantial near-term replacement product demand acceleration; 3) The multiple of 15.1X already represents a significant historical discount, and we see no direct risk to earnings from this move. 4.) mr. Job’s new location (anticipated to be hell due to SW and HW bugs on released products) opens AAPL for exiting new markets associated with communications with “the other side”, as well as access to information that is not commonly available 5.) mr. Jobs’s health is no longer a risk factor, and he will now be expected to remain in charge of Apple forever 6.) it is anticipated that mr. Jared’s bail money will indeed not be paid back, and substantial portion of it will be spent on Apple stock. As a result, we are reiterating our CL-Buy on Apple and we rise our 12-month target price of $1350.


Our target price represents approximately 60X P/E multiple on our above-consensus CY2010 EPS estimate, and was scientifically derived using iPhone calculator app, by multiplying our previous $430 target by Pi (in our consensus estimation of all related event’s expected to make a ‘full circle’).

Key risks

The key risks to our target include: network coverage in hell, mr. Jared shows up back and bail will not be used for AAPL stock, successful push by politicians to erode the amount on the pot due to their petty interests to spend on unimportant things, resulting in non-utilization expected near-full portion of bail money to stimulate the US equity market (in brief, meaning AAPL stock), unanticipated time-decay on value of Pi, increased platform competition, and potential legal and regulatory restrictions.

Antipodeus's picture

Sir, abso-f@cking-lutely BRILLIANT! You have his jargon perfectly. And to think he could say all of that with a perfectly straight face.

Cheesy Bastard's picture

Hat tip: Grand Supercycle

AAPL monthly chart is overextended and parabolic. As noted in
previous gold posts, parabolic charts tend to reverse similar to how
they went up. Price action is contained within a large expanding
wedge – revealing an emotive market that is out of control. Charts
like this can end in tears.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

I believe apple run up will come on down with everything else.

But no cash will get to shareholders.

I expect a 3 for 1 split at earnings call.

I really don't care, it's a rigged propped up free money market.

Trimmed Hedge's picture

3 for 1??

Buy the effin' split!!!

HitmanVictor's picture

I know we have to be negative here, but last time it worked out rather well to buy once the AAPL formed a base.

1984's picture

Last time Jobs came back from the dead.

HarryWanger's picture

Actually, I think they have it backwards. Near term will not see much more than a 7-8% pull back with the dip buyers jumping in. Then as time wears on and Jobs does not return, the "visionary" products run low and Apple deteriorates. There are probably a good two years of innovative product in the pipeline but after that - adios amigo.

Cdad's picture


One of your worst posts ever...seriously.  Two years of innovative products....ummmm. WFT are you talking about?  That is the kind of comment that works at yahoo...but not here.

Seriously, Harry...either let up with your ubber bull thing...or I shall be shoving your own crap down your pie hole for months.

Cdad says...RALLY OVER.  We have our reversal catalyst.


Blano's picture

Now there's a word I want to latch on to when buying a stock....probably.  Right.

Popo's picture

Agreed Harry. You were junked by the bear zealots, not the thinking bears.

The iPad 2 will be a home run. And the iPad will continue to slaughter the iPad clones.

Furthermore when/if Jobs dies - do not underestimate the degree of fanboy eulogizing that will drive Apple to higher cult status in the near term.

Apple has an enormous lead /differentiation in several key product areas. Even with a complete wipeout on the creative front, they have a few good years left.

palmereldritch's picture

IMO, Steve has probably been sketching out a vision of the Apple ecosystem beyond 2 years with his team since his last return knowing that beyond executing the monthly and quarterly building blocks there is a definite need for communicating long term product plans and business evolution.

He's a smart guy with a good team and has the benefit of hindsight with the Pepsi debacle to understand the importance of succession.  Just because it hasn't been communicated to the market doesn't mean he is not prepared.  He is the king of 'just one more thing' and the master of planning and preparation to reveal with such effortless asides the next magic product.  The real question is whether his team will be able to successfully game and navigate all the potential future business scenarios to achieve these long term goals with so many competitive fronts targetting the walled garden.

All this talk of succession is sad and dispiriting although not inappropriate given his past health scares.

I just hope Jobs will get well soon so the market can only be left to speculate on his company's many profits and not the incalculable losses.  Steve's legacy is alive today in the elegance of his product's designs and their revolutionary impact on media communication and expression and is guaranteed to outlive many lifetimes as long as the company holds true to this vision.

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

iPhone 5. Where is the iPhone 5? I want the iPhone 5. The one with the 4Gs. The white one. I want the white one.



Trimmed Hedge's picture

I heard AAPL is going to $1,000 a share!!

Sophist Economicus's picture

I heard $3,000 - and if it doesn't, I'll eat my hat,  by-God!


Can I type God here?

Arkadaba's picture

I can't post pictures but what is the infinity symbol ...

dick cheneys ghost's picture

does APPLE manufacture anything in the United States?

Trimmed Hedge's picture

...and annoying TV commercials...

Misean's picture

Oh yeah, forgot about that.

rosiescenario's picture they are just so phuquing awful...that piano noise...makes me think of the whips and jangles....

PuppetRepubl1c's picture

I think all of their products are manufactured in China (FoxCon).  Though they source materials from many countries (almost none of it comes from the US though).  


I am not an AAPL hater, i actually think their products are great (Iphone is a great device, same with MacbookPro).  I think it would be foolish to hold their stock over the longterm at current valuations though.





plocequ1's picture

Probably not. My Macbook pro is a marvel of modern of science regardless of where its made ( China ). Shes a fine machine

GoinFawr's picture

can you plug a usb drive into it?

1984's picture

My MacBook Pro battery died 4 times already, needs magical incantation to get it to display on the external monitor port, needs weekly restart to get things to work right a la windows, etc etc.  But it looks great.

Edit: Got MB from work.

plocequ1's picture

I calibrate mine weekly. Instructions...Let run on fully charged battery for at least  2 hours . Unplug it and let the battery fully drain. Do not use for at least 5 hours. Plug it back in and fully charge.

Hephasteus's picture

Conviction buy convict bitches.

shushup's picture

I heard $2000.


Trimmed Hedge's picture

Finding yourself on your death-bed?

There's an app for that!