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Rescue Rangers Scramble: Goldman Rushes To Prevent Mass Exodus From Conviction List Hotel Applecornia, Says To BTFD

Tyler Durden's picture


Ta-tata-daaaaa: Captain Goldmanerica is here to save the day. Can't have 190 hedge funds checking out from hotel Applecornia, now can we.

From Goldman's Bill Shope, CFA though we are not sure what the F stands for... certainly not Facebook after today...

What's changed

On Monday morning, Apple released an internal email from Steve Jobs where he noted that the board had granted him medical leave from the company to focus on his health. Mr. Jobs will remain CEO and he will continue to be involved in major strategic decisions for the company. He also noted he hopes to be back at Apple full time as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Tim Cook, Apple’s Chief Operating Officer, will be responsible for day to day management of the company in Mr. Jobs’ absence.


While the stock is likely to face near-term pressure, we believe the longterm fundamentals remain intact and we would reiterate our Conviction Buy on any weakness. This is based on the following key points we detail in this note: 1) The management team remains strong, and we believe investors would embrace Tim Cook in any potential succession plan; 2) Apple’s $51 billion in cash and investments could be partially distributed to shareholders to stabilize the shares; 3) The multiple of 15.1X already represents a significant historical discount, and we see no direct risk to earnings from this move. As a result, we are reiterating our CL-Buy on Apple and our 12-month target price of $430.


Our target price represents a 19X P/E multiple on our above-consensus CY2010 EPS estimate or a 19% discount to Apple’ five-year average multiple of 23X.

Key risks

The key risks to our target include: macro deterioration, increased platform competition, potential legal and regulatory restrictions, and uncertain management succession plans.


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Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:37 | 883064 Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

they missed one on "key risks"


death, I hear it's a real bitch

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:49 | 883093 pgarner
pgarner's picture


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:54 | 883104 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

I'd say more like -6%....

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:45 | 883327 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

What is BTFD?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:04 | 883366 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture





Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:49 | 883443 knukles
knukles's picture

Fuckin'-A dude!  You'd be long a lot of Timmahs!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:23 | 883516 Moonrajah
Moonrajah's picture

And here I was naively thinking it was a more Squidesque:





Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:05 | 883369 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Buy. The. Fucking. Dip.

How have you missed this?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:09 | 883377 CD
CD's picture

That would be Buy The Fucking Dip. For clarification, see:

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:38 | 883528 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

The term Golden Age (Χρυσ?ν Γ?νος) comes from Greek mythology and legend and refers to the first in a sequence of four or five (or more) Ages of Man, in which the Golden Age is first, followed in sequence, by the Silver, Bronze, and Iron Ages, and then the present, a period of decline. By extension "Golden Age" denotes a period of primordial peace, harmony, stability, and prosperity.


[Men] lived like gods without sorrow of heart, remote and free from toil and grief: miserable age rested not on them; but with legs and arms never failing they made merry with feasting beyond the reach of all devils. When they died, it was as though they were overcome with sleep, and they had all good things; for the fruitful earth unforced bare them fruit abundantly and without stint. They dwelt in ease and peace upon their lands with many good things, rich in flocks and loved by the blessed gods.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 03:02 | 883541 CD
CD's picture

Thanks, Rusty, though I suspect you may have been trying to answer someone else's response. 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 03:24 | 883547 Rusty Shorts
Tue, 01/18/2011 - 06:03 | 883601 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Buy the fucking dip, you fucking idiot, and you can make money, too.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:51 | 883095 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:59 | 883115 rocker
rocker's picture

Need not worry, they are already short. They never make bad trades. Just like Bernie Madoff. Will cover next week.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:05 | 883131 Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

I'm just spouting the truth. without a succession plan and the only perception of Apple is "steve jobs" it's a fact.

deal with it.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:40 | 883217 asteroids
asteroids's picture

First guy to dump wins! If Apple was so so strong they wouldn't need GS to pump the stock on a holiday now would they. If the economy was so so strong we wouldn't need QE2 now would we. Those hedge funds aren't beholding to anyone and they'll book a profit less they lose it to someone else.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 06:43 | 883613 HedgeYourself
HedgeYourself's picture

What happened, now ?

On Saturday evening, Apple released a public statement, based on email from Steve Jobs’s coroner, where he noted that mr. Jobs has passed away after having been fatally injured from a gunshot wound to the head. Mr Jobs was reportedly assassinated by Jared Loughner, now awaiting trial for Arizona shootings, while released with 1 Trillion dollar bail.

As a surprise twist to recent events, Mr Loughner’s bail was posted by Federal Reserve, which chairman Dr.(Econ.) Ben Bernanke had these comments on reasoning to back up Mr. Loughner “As per the FED mandate allowed by Federal Reserve Act section 13(3) rules associated with individuals, posting the bail for Mr. Loughner was natural progression of our ongoing efforts to help stimulate US economy. Mr. Loughner was considered flight risk by the prosecutor’s office, and due to unusually high bail combined with high perceived risk, he was left with little options to raise the bail money from private sources. As 1T$ bail is considered to have a substantial stimulative effect on GPD, FED decided to take this opportunity to add Mr. Loughner to our portfolio of risk assets. Additional benefit of adding this new asset class to fed’s portfolio is risk diversification. In the case that Mr. Jared’s bail was actually paid back, it would substantially improve the performance expectation of our entire asset portfolio.” Dr. (Econ.) Bernanke continued with the following positive note: “We were also able to conduct a proper due diligence meeting with Mr. Jared prior to his release mainly to assess a risk that he will ‘do something stupid’ after his potential release. While meeting with him, we took an opportunity to get his views on the recent movements on gold prices, which has greatly buzzled the FOMC participants, and . Mr. Jared provided great insights on gold valuation in USD’s, and we are already in process of incorporating our limited understanding of his highly complex thought processes in our econometric models. We expect that this new information will be invaluable, and will form a key influence on settling the FED monetary policy in the near future.”

As the result of this partially unfortunate and certainly unforeseen (by most) progression of events, Apple’s board had granted Mr. Jobs a long-term part-time non-medical leave of absence from the company to focus on charging his batteries and other ethereal activities. Mr. Jobs will remain CEO and he will continue to be involved in all major strategic decisions for the company. He also noted he hopes to be back at Apple for part time visits in some form, as soon as allowed by Satan. In the meantime, mr Jobs will remain firmly in control of key day-to-day operations through email and video chat sessions from his iPhone.

So, what ?

While the stock is likely to face near-term pressure, we believe the long term fundamentals are now better than ever, and we would reiterate our Conviction Buy on any near-term weakness that may materialize due to the complexity and unconventional nature of the recent events. This is based on the following key points we detail in this note: 1) The management team remains strong forever; 2) Apple will immediately release a blacker black editions of iPhone, iPad, and iPod (with some bug fixes and prompt introduction of associated brand new bugs) to both mourn and celebrate the loss/victory, leading to anticipated substantial near-term replacement product demand acceleration; 3) The multiple of 15.1X already represents a significant historical discount, and we see no direct risk to earnings from this move. 4.) mr. Job’s new location (anticipated to be hell due to SW and HW bugs on released products) opens AAPL for exiting new markets associated with communications with “the other side”, as well as access to information that is not commonly available 5.) mr. Jobs’s health is no longer a risk factor, and he will now be expected to remain in charge of Apple forever 6.) it is anticipated that mr. Jared’s bail money will indeed not be paid back, and substantial portion of it will be spent on Apple stock. As a result, we are reiterating our CL-Buy on Apple and we rise our 12-month target price of $1350.


Our target price represents approximately 60X P/E multiple on our above-consensus CY2010 EPS estimate, and was scientifically derived using iPhone calculator app, by multiplying our previous $430 target by Pi (in our consensus estimation of all related event’s expected to make a ‘full circle’).

Key risks

The key risks to our target include: network coverage in hell, mr. Jared shows up back and bail will not be used for AAPL stock, successful push by politicians to erode the amount on the pot due to their petty interests to spend on unimportant things, resulting in non-utilization expected near-full portion of bail money to stimulate the US equity market (in brief, meaning AAPL stock), unanticipated time-decay on value of Pi, increased platform competition, and potential legal and regulatory restrictions.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 10:49 | 883883 Antipodeus
Antipodeus's picture

Sir, abso-f@cking-lutely BRILLIANT! You have his jargon perfectly. And to think he could say all of that with a perfectly straight face.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:38 | 883070 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Hat tip: Grand Supercycle

AAPL monthly chart is overextended and parabolic. As noted in
previous gold posts, parabolic charts tend to reverse similar to how
they went up. Price action is contained within a large expanding
wedge – revealing an emotive market that is out of control. Charts
like this can end in tears.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:50 | 883234 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I believe apple run up will come on down with everything else.

But no cash will get to shareholders.

I expect a 3 for 1 split at earnings call.

I really don't care, it's a rigged propped up free money market.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:07 | 883258 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

3 for 1??

Buy the effin' split!!!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:39 | 883073 HitmanVictor
HitmanVictor's picture

I know we have to be negative here, but last time it worked out rather well to buy once the AAPL formed a base.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:16 | 883389 1984
1984's picture

Last time Jobs came back from the dead.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:41 | 883077 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Actually, I think they have it backwards. Near term will not see much more than a 7-8% pull back with the dip buyers jumping in. Then as time wears on and Jobs does not return, the "visionary" products run low and Apple deteriorates. There are probably a good two years of innovative product in the pipeline but after that - adios amigo.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:06 | 883254 Cdad
Cdad's picture


One of your worst posts ever...seriously.  Two years of innovative products....ummmm. WFT are you talking about?  That is the kind of comment that works at yahoo...but not here.

Seriously, Harry...either let up with your ubber bull thing...or I shall be shoving your own crap down your pie hole for months.

Cdad says...RALLY OVER.  We have our reversal catalyst.


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:37 | 883317 Blano
Blano's picture

Now there's a word I want to latch on to when buying a stock....probably.  Right.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:32 | 883415 Popo
Popo's picture

Agreed Harry. You were junked by the bear zealots, not the thinking bears.

The iPad 2 will be a home run. And the iPad will continue to slaughter the iPad clones.

Furthermore when/if Jobs dies - do not underestimate the degree of fanboy eulogizing that will drive Apple to higher cult status in the near term.

Apple has an enormous lead /differentiation in several key product areas. Even with a complete wipeout on the creative front, they have a few good years left.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:15 | 883504 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

IMO, Steve has probably been sketching out a vision of the Apple ecosystem beyond 2 years with his team since his last return knowing that beyond executing the monthly and quarterly building blocks there is a definite need for communicating long term product plans and business evolution.

He's a smart guy with a good team and has the benefit of hindsight with the Pepsi debacle to understand the importance of succession.  Just because it hasn't been communicated to the market doesn't mean he is not prepared.  He is the king of 'just one more thing' and the master of planning and preparation to reveal with such effortless asides the next magic product.  The real question is whether his team will be able to successfully game and navigate all the potential future business scenarios to achieve these long term goals with so many competitive fronts targetting the walled garden.

All this talk of succession is sad and dispiriting although not inappropriate given his past health scares.

I just hope Jobs will get well soon so the market can only be left to speculate on his company's many profits and not the incalculable losses.  Steve's legacy is alive today in the elegance of his product's designs and their revolutionary impact on media communication and expression and is guaranteed to outlive many lifetimes as long as the company holds true to this vision.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:19 | 883514 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture


Tue, 01/18/2011 - 06:17 | 883608 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

iPhone 5. Where is the iPhone 5? I want the iPhone 5. The one with the 4Gs. The white one. I want the white one.



Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:42 | 883078 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

I heard AAPL is going to $1,000 a share!!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:52 | 883098 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

I heard $3,000 - and if it doesn't, I'll eat my hat,  by-God!


Can I type God here?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:22 | 883515 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I can't post pictures but what is the infinity symbol ...

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 10:51 | 883888 Antipodeus
Antipodeus's picture


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:44 | 883081 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

does APPLE manufacture anything in the United States?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:46 | 883087 Misean
Misean's picture

Yes. Patent filings.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:55 | 883107 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

...and annoying TV commercials...

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:12 | 883153 Misean
Misean's picture

Oh yeah, forgot about that.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:50 | 883339 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture they are just so phuquing awful...that piano noise...makes me think of the whips and jangles....

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:55 | 883109 PuppetRepubl1c
PuppetRepubl1c's picture

I think all of their products are manufactured in China (FoxCon).  Though they source materials from many countries (almost none of it comes from the US though).  


I am not an AAPL hater, i actually think their products are great (Iphone is a great device, same with MacbookPro).  I think it would be foolish to hold their stock over the longterm at current valuations though.





Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:03 | 883132 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Probably not. My Macbook pro is a marvel of modern of science regardless of where its made ( China ). Shes a fine machine

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:37 | 883212 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

can you plug a usb drive into it?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:23 | 883401 1984
1984's picture

My MacBook Pro battery died 4 times already, needs magical incantation to get it to display on the external monitor port, needs weekly restart to get things to work right a la windows, etc etc.  But it looks great.

Edit: Got MB from work.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 07:24 | 883618 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

I calibrate mine weekly. Instructions...Let run on fully charged battery for at least  2 hours . Unplug it and let the battery fully drain. Do not use for at least 5 hours. Plug it back in and fully charge.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:19 | 883394 1984
1984's picture


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:45 | 883084 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Conviction buy convict bitches.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:46 | 883086 shushup
shushup's picture

I heard $2000.


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:46 | 883089 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Finding yourself on your death-bed?

There's an app for that!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:41 | 883218 sabra1
sabra1's picture

that is called what you become: an APP-erition!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:52 | 883343 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:50 | 883094 HitmanVictor
HitmanVictor's picture

This site used to be more intelligent.  Now we have people making jokes about someone's death who is not even a bank CEO.  Seriously, have some class. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:52 | 883099 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Coming from the Hitman???

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:53 | 883100 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero....

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 05:32 | 883588 saulysw
saulysw's picture


(from my iPhone)

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 01:00 | 883451 knukles
knukles's picture

OK then, how about a dead Chinese joke? 

Last week my best friend who was Chinese died.
I went to China to attend the funeral and pay my respects.
When people close to you die, it's weird how you see their face everywhere you look.


Not as funny when its about bankers.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 03:00 | 883539 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

You've got it all wrong, HitmanVictor. 

If anything, the correlation between intelligence and cruelty is POSITIVE.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:51 | 883096 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Forget about Apple, Shanghai has been hurting and barely a word uttered here after a huge pull back yesterday and down again tonight.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:10 | 883150 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

If by the post just prior to this one you mean barely a word, then yes:

On The Paradox Of Concurrent Chinese RRR Hikes And OMO Liquidity Injections (And A SHIBOR Update)

Maybe next time we need to put some intraday candle charts of the SHCOMP and have the headline in all caps...

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:14 | 883158 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

I think there's an app for that....

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:17 | 883168 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Saw that. But on a morning after Shanghai put up a -3+% loss, I would have thought the board would have lit up on that. It took out some major technical levels.

Instead, lots of Apple. AAPL will fall and rise on bad then good news tomorrow but it's meaningless in the near future. Apple doesn't start really hurting until the "innovative pipeline" runs dry. Like I said, it's a great trade tomorrow and the next few months on new launches. But if Steve doesn't return, and I'm guessing he won't, a couple years from now, it's just another player in the arena.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:27 | 883192 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture


I had a ton of questions in regards to apple, Jobs ect... thanks again for everything.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:25 | 883290 reading
reading's picture

You obviously only read the posts related to appl -- tyler has been talking about Shanghai since the first of the year.  You must not have seen that through your bulltard goggles.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 01:02 | 883456 knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah yeah...

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:25 | 883518 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Smack down!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:15 | 883160 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Yuan POMO bitchez. We can manufacture any reality we want! Woo fucking hoo!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:54 | 883347 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....right you are....AAPL will shortly be forgotten...I'd guess about 2 minutes after the market opens on 1/18......


....Ben may need a Triple Pomo tomorrow.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:55 | 883105 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

And thats why I said 2 weeks ago when this stock crashes, I will not be one of the assholes holding the bag!

Good luck with this pig.

Beware of gay apples.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:58 | 883114 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Its not going to crash. Pomo

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:00 | 883119 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I'm not catching this falling knife.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:08 | 883144 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

I think there's an app for that....

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:46 | 883230 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

buy the fucking dip?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:55 | 883106 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

What, No chart?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:09 | 883146 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

I think there's an app for that, too....

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:35 | 883417 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Apparently there's also an App for drawing faces on paper bags, too! :>D

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:01 | 883121 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I have known about this for a couple of months, insider style. I bought no puts. I shall sleep fine tonite.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:05 | 883136 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

This past Wednesday I was considering picking up some out-of-the-money puts on this pig.

But, I passed.

I shall weep myself to sleep tonight....

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 01:04 | 883460 knukles
knukles's picture

Isn't there an app for that, too?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:31 | 883414 1984
1984's picture

I advised my friend to get some PUTS as insurance after he told me he bought AAPL just for this very reason.  I did not short myself because of POMO.  

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:01 | 883123 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

plenty of brain power at apple without jobs, this site hasn't been right about apple yet, no reason it will be now

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:03 | 883130 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Brain power, yes. Visionary, charismatic leader? No. Jobs is not replaceable in that context. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:06 | 883140 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

If he was such a visionary, then why didn't he see this coming?


Simple question, really....

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:56 | 883240 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Psychic Friends Network goes bankrupt... how didn't anyone see this coming?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:23 | 883182 cclaeys
cclaeys's picture

he knows what to look for in people. I am far from an apple defender, but have you ever met someone and ask, how the f do they do that...and no matter how much thought and effort you put into gaining those skills, it still doesnt add up?


Apple is cheap compared to some of the dogshit companies that comprise the RUT and are trading at 100x, but you and Robo dont care right, as long as uncle ben keeps on priming the pump. If this bullshit was so fuckin easy, why waste your time on message boards, go enjoy your private island. You guys and the others that bash dumshit - "comedy gold" retail traders like me are the equivalent of the dude willing to sell his $10 Million secret to me in ebook form for $4.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:25 | 883185 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I don't bash PM holders. I've made it clear here for a year that I've been holding PMs, mostly gold, since 2003.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:14 | 883275 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

If saying terrific a 1000 times is charisma. I'll start practicing mine.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:59 | 883355 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...yeah Lisa was quite a vision....ditto guys have forgotten the 2 guys who really started Apple....and Jobs was not one of them....maybe the one who stole the mouse from I'm showing my age...

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:38 | 883527 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

And Apple has not been hiring the young smart kids. From what I've heard, they are all going to Google or Microsoft. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:06 | 883138 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Apple isn't shit without Jobs. I think he proved that the last time they ousted him. Jobs is one of a kind. GS knows that history well thus the damage control spin.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:40 | 883420 1984
1984's picture

It doesn't matter much brain power resides in Cupertino.  People equate Jobs with Apple - there goes Jobs, there goes Apple.  Such is the hazard of idolatry.

Edit: spelling.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:03 | 883126 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

75% of the messages at AAPL Yahoo Finance board:

"Buy the effin' dip!!"


Alas, they are not being sarcastic....

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:04 | 883134 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Alas, they are not being sarcastic....

Because it always works. Will work again this time but for a trade only. Longer term, no Jobs, Apple is hurting.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:07 | 883141 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Stevie ain't coming back this time....

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:00 | 883358 Bear
Bear's picture

Ditto ... AAPL

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:04 | 883133 ILikeBoats
ILikeBoats's picture

The trouble with branding is that perception matters more than reality. 

With Jobs being a big part of "the brand", his leaving or possible death hurts them a lot more than reality should indicate. 

After all they just opened up the iPhone to another major carrier (Verizon), that alone should increase profits.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:07 | 883137 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Not just the hedgies... almost every large and mid cap "growth" fund has AAPL as a top holding. When this blows up, it will be mushroom cloud proportions.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:14 | 883157 cclaeys
cclaeys's picture

there is one key component other than Jobs that is rarely mentioned and is the brains behnd the thin one - Jonathan Ive.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:16 | 883163 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

But the real question is, how does he look in a black turtleneck?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:01 | 883360 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...A+...and can he strut????

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:15 | 883159 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

The strain of maintaining the reality distortion field is wearing on him. He must recharge.


Disclosure: I have an iPhone 4 and I like it. It really is a nice piece of gear. I just bought IK Multimedia's iRig guitar interface and software, and it literally rocks.

I like the phone, but I probably wouldn't buy an apple laptop. They cost too much. I can get the same thing done for half the price on Windows.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:19 | 883171 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Funny. I love my virus free Apple laptop. I refuse to buy an Iphone.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:25 | 883188 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

I don't have a problem with Apple's hardware. I just think it costs too much.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:04 | 883368 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...started with Apple and then got sick of being ripped off on all the little stuff where they gouge you...

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 01:19 | 883472 knukles
knukles's picture

Wait a minute.

Software maybe?
Nah, just like the way it looks on my belt, eh?

God grant me the serenity...

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 01:09 | 883466 knukles
knukles's picture

I don't have a single one of their fucking products and I'm happier than a Bishop in Boy's Town.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:18 | 883169 Misean
Misean's picture

Unlike the 90's when Jobs left, all they had rumbling behind them was the IBM/M$ behemoth plodding along like an out of breath overweight defensive line man.

The competition is nimble now. Droid, Samsung pads, nVidia tegra...An apparatchick watching costs and making sure the assembly lines run on time isn't gonna do it.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 00:46 | 883439 1984
1984's picture

nVidia tegra...


I first read that as "Video Viagra".   Ha ha ha.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:25 | 883187 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I like Jobs. I ratcheted him up many notches after hearing his '05 commencement speech which is on you tube. I was kind of sick when I heard this news a couple months ago. A friend asked me if I was gonna buy puts. I said no. Fucking weird. Like I am almost growing a conscience. I just didn't feel right. He bought the puts. Both of us did the right thing. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:26 | 883190 Temporalist
Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:30 | 883199 HitmanVictor
HitmanVictor's picture

Again, I wish we had more objective traders here who aren't always short/uberbears or vice versa.  Only true trades that can go long or short will make it.  Being a one-sided, uber-bear doesn't work over time.  You  had your 2008 and half of 2009.  Get nimble.  Trade the market, follow the charts and trends.  Don't change the timeframe on charts and follow the "37 day" moving average or pick odd parts of the chart to draw your trendlines.  And, above all, don't apply what you learned in ECON 101.  Price action and volume are your friends.  A bunch of tards calling for SPX 900 aren't going to help you in a bull market and permabulls aren't going to help in a bear market.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:34 | 883311 cclaeys
cclaeys's picture

I appreciate your comment as much as anyone else's here, but...

"A bunch of tards" that if they had been in a bag full of wheat fund instead of the stock market, they would have more money than they did 10 years ago. Wonder how many of the momentum followers would have been better off paying their mortgage with the money lost, the hidden fund fees, etc - it all sucks man, thats the point, it is a 0 f'n sum game for a 401k, only reason I do it is because the fuggers match 100%. Time value of money, hidden inflation and the mortgage that costs 2x what you finance. Shit, I made more in Black Rock high yield bond fund than the flippin SP - the stock market sucks, unless you are on the other side of the window.

When have technicals meant anything in the last 3 months, that is why I am f'n bearish...won't even get into volume. Why not just say chase the momentum? I'll tell you why - because by the time you can smell the shit, you are already standing in it. I dont follow - and it is hard as hell to pick tops and bottoms in bigger cycles. We all have systems that may or may not work, but show me one value other than the "flight to quality" that is already loaded and ready to be spun.   


The RUT is full of piggies just waiting to be led to the big white building where they all go and don't come back. Keep honkin the IBD 100, etc.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:25 | 883519 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ditto above post plus.

You're stock market can do flips, spit baby jesus's from it's vagina that turn everything they touch into fucking flowers the second they land. Cure cancer, walk on water eat bullets and shit icecream till the end of the goddamn 21st century and you still couldn't get me to give a shit about it.

Fuck you and your delusional I'm a drive my penis into this stock market like a sports car till the fucking milk champagne girl blows me for all eternity. It's failboat wrapped in failcrane dropped on fail titanic. And the only thing that keeps you from that realization is your massive delusional ego.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:03 | 883248 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

I have owned Apple computers since the first 128K model and they have always made money. I am a writer and my wife is a graphic artist and these are simply the best tools on the market for our purposes. The discussion shouldn't be about love Apple/hate Apple; it should be does Apple offer value for money.

BTW I bought 1000 shares at $13  a few years back and I am very very pleased with the investment as well as the machines. How has your Microsoft stock done?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:28 | 883301 jedimarkus
jedimarkus's picture

I would never debate their product line as a consumer electronics company as you know anyone that has used their products for decades will atest to the brilliance of their line.  The stock and the company should never be confused as being one in the same however....

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:04 | 884102 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Do you testify to the brilliance of the jobs. Testify brother. Anyone who uses the products testifies the same testament.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:18 | 883277 Silversinner
Silversinner's picture

I'm buying the stuff that's used in

prev and nxt smartfphone,don't

know who's the choosen one to

produce nxt generation.

by the way how is nokia doing these day's?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:23 | 883285 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

To keep a balloon afloat, the only thing you need is a lot of hot air.

-New Indian Proverb.


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:25 | 883291 jedimarkus
jedimarkus's picture

How interesting AAPL closes at all time high on Friday and they choose to announce this over a holiday weekend just a day from the release of their earnings.  Nice cushion they put in place for the news... good job

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:39 | 883322 cclaeys
cclaeys's picture

bunch of sandbagging motherfuckers anyways. I always wondered, if they are that shitty at forecasting, how the hell do they stay on top of anything, much less ahead of the curve? Makes about as much sense as turning people away because you already met your quota this month, but come see me next month and I'll give you a 10% discount - and yes, that shit happens and not at joe's shoeshine shop.


If there was ever a company that I thought would be the next acct scandal - aapl is it. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:26 | 883298 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Ahhh. don't worry. They'll hook Jobs up like Weekend at Bernies ..erm Stevies. Complete with pully system to wave his hands, head and even some gestures for the the touch screen. 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 01:15 | 883470 knukles
knukles's picture

The Hawking Paradox App!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:45 | 883328 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

This will end up costing more than LTCM, which seems like chump change these days.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 01:44 | 883492 laughing_swordfish
laughing_swordfish's picture

I have an iPhone3 and it works just fine for me..

But I don't see the need for the Macbook as my Toshiba laptop does what it's supposed to.. I resisted Mrs.Swordfish's urgings to buy an iPad for myself so I bought her one for Christmas..among other things..she loves it, uses it for her work.

Very good gear, but the competition is hot on AAPL's heels, and this is not a good time for Jobs to check out. I was at the CES show last week and there's more coming down the pipeline from competitors that most folks aren't yet aware of...

Just sayin'


KrvtKpt laughing swordfish




Tue, 01/18/2011 - 01:55 | 883497 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I can hardly wait to see what happens.

If AAPL does see a significant decline, I'd take that as proof that the big institutional investors have little confidence in ANYTHING at this point. 

But the real meaning is more serious--it suggests that the "biggest" company in the world couldn't maintain its value if it lost a single employee.  If AAPL is actually worth a damn as a company, Jobs just isn't that important. 

Could be an exciting day.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:24 | 883517 walküre
walküre's picture

Buy RIM.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 02:37 | 883525 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture


Updated AAPL chart . . .

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 05:57 | 883599 Djirk
Djirk's picture

tipping point? risk off?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 06:39 | 883611 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

The only Apple worth buying is an apple orchard in New Hampshire, where you can make applejack, grow weed and make pornos.


In New Jersey (of all places), applejack was used as currency to pay road construction crews during the colonial period.


You can't drink gold.

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