Following up on my Research in Motion commentary in This Quarter Offers a Lot of Challenges for Smart Phone Vendors with Fruit in Their Names!,
I’d like to comment on potential future paths for the company. From
what I see from their public announcements, I remain as unimpressed now
as I was just before (After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play) and after (RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?)
the OS6/Torch launch. The tricky part is that RIMM is now starting to
look rather inexpensive relative to consensus earnings and historically
projected growth rates. This is where a little strategic foresight comes
into play. I have made available for download (for all paying
subscribers) the Mobile Operating System Market Share Model which illustrates, on a very granular level, the market share movements (gains and losses) of the major mobile OS providers.
Research in Motions recent equity share decline stems not only from
market share loss, but from the apparent lack of a clear cut and
believable plan to stem that market share loss.
Thus the downloadable OS model design is to congeal data garnered
from Gartner, Bloomberg, Neilsen, Canalys and other sources in order to
realistically track movement in the mobile OS space. Since this model
actually deserves a post of its own, I will simply pull out some
pertinent charts that pertain to RIMM.
Research in Motion, is still currently the market leader in terms of
share, but is losing both demonstrably and rapidly in new users. As a
matter of fact, if the recent historical trends persist, this is the
last quarter that RIM will be able to claim the top of the market title
as Android looks well situated to claim that crown.
As can be seen from this chart, Android is just about there. Apple
will probably show better numbers in Q3 with additional evidence of
iPhone 4 adoption as well.
We, at BoomBustBlog actually believe that RIM is poised to lose
market share (particularly the consumer market where it enterprise
stickiness can’t come into play) quite quickly and radically due to
dissatisfaction among its user base combined with technically far
superior handsets in the iPhone and Android camps.
So, although RIM is looking quite cheap now, it is quite possible for
it to look much cheaper. The question is how does this market share
loss factor into its equity valuation. That is why I have supplied our
Professional and Institutional subscribers with the plug and play 
RIMM Multivariate Valuation Model. By plugging
in the latest trends gleaned from the Mobile Operating System Market Share Model, a much more clearer and reliable picture can be had concerning RIMM’s situation.
Additional writings on Research in Motion:
RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Professional & Institutional
What, no
Crackberry, bitchez?
Can't wait to throw my !*$%&&@ BB into the Hudson River. 11/2010 is liberation day. RIM is a company that went to sleep. No excuse. Coasting on corporate users? Please. My favorite is when the BB turns itself off in the middle of the day. Maybe I'll nail it to the wall of the man cave, after removing the battery of course...
Chris
Sadly for RIMM, the word I keep hearing now is that RIM is the next PALM. Sometimes such chatter is self-fulfilling. While a RIM sell-out is unlikely, when you two high speed trains with an apple or android logo heading towards you, that can't be good.
The sad part is, that from a purely technical perspective, RIMM has a far better security model than any of the other phone platforms currently being foisted upon the form-over-function consumer. The idea of security is a complete afterthought on the iPhail. There is no central control over the device, limiting what users can do after they login, but hey it looks cool, and Macs don't get viri...right?
jailbreakme.com
Wait till someone puts this little gem to "good" use.
I jail broke my iPad and using Cyndia downloaded some apps that allows me to tether my iPad to my Blackberry via a Bluetooth connection so I can use the 3G on the BB to connect to the inter webs. Works pretty well when no wifi is available. So far the iPad hasn't crashed.
Wow!
How about their lame gay-baiting ad campaign?
New slogan: if you're a fruit, try a blackberry!
So you're saying they're targeting traditional Apple clientele?