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Retail Investors Flee From Market Even Before Record Market Crash, YTD Domestic Flows Into Stocks Are Negative
The weekly ICI number for long-term domestic mutual fund flows is out, and not surprisingly, retail investors were bailing out in droves from the stock market even before the massive flash crash of May 6. In fact, in the week ended May 5, retail investors had pulled a massive $2.235 billion out of the market, after the S&P had dropped a mere 5% or so from the prior week. We are positive that when the number for the current week comes out, the outflows will be stunning now that investors have no faith left in the rigged casino "capital markets." Of course, this is simple to explain: with everyone and their grandmother habituated to a market that can only go up, at the first sign of jitteriness everyone and their grandmother bails, although only the big institutions really get to exit: everyone else has to hope the SEC will not cancel their trades the next day. And now that the market has been thoroughly discredited, the primary dealers have no choice but to ramp it up on no volume yet again, in hopes of pulling in the momos and the housewives into it as usual, courtesy of the CNBC cheerleaders, just to pull the rug a few days before the next trillion dollar bail out is needed and "justified." Oh, and whoever cares, retail domestic flows into stocks year to date are negative by $1.5 billion. Tells you all you need to know about who is buying this "market" - momo emptor.
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This is bullish. Rally not over until Retail Sheeple come in for their Fleecing.
word.
I dun know. Don't overthink the situation dude. The market could crack at anytime, distribution or not.
The sheeple have already been fleeced. The problem is that the big boys are attempting a synthetic rally in the hopes of bringing back the sheeple for yet another fleecing.
The sheeple may not be smart, but they are definitely not stupid.
Smart or stupid could be immaterial. Try broke.
You know what is going to be even more interesting? The effect of all the small potatoes short sellers, covering sometime later this month and swearing off double inverse etfs for life. Talk about a chasm opening up after the ensuing (and hopefully last) ginormous Pavlovian reflex rally.
Check out this underwater footage of oil leak in Gulf, thats way more than 200,000 gallons a day
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_sc2031
Not all crude, a lot is natgas. Look at the bubbles.
Love the cheery ad for Tide Stain Release that precedes the clip. Maybe a few supertankers full of the stuff will get the stain out!
How many bpd did that well produce? Isn't reasonable to assume that's a close estimate to how much oil is being pumped into the gulf now?
Seems reasonable, but an uncontrolled release could be a lot more or a lot less.
Interesting, but that is only one of 3 leaks. Wonder what the other two look like?
No worries, the Wanker will buy it.
Oops. Better have the Fed tell AIG and CITI and GOLDMAN and MS and GMAC and BoA to buy more stock index futures to keep that illusion going...
The public has tapped out their home equity ATM and are now tapping their 401k's and other investment accounts to make ends meet. I doubt there is going to be a resurgence of retail money at any level.
You got that one right. Retirement assets are being drawn down and depleted. Part of the reason is inflating cost of living with deflating real incomes (for those still fully employed) and no other places to allocate cash that's perceived as safe.
The law of diminishing returns. As more and more investors are tapped out the engineered market declines to scare people into supporting the fed pocketbook buying treasurys will have no effect. There will be nobody left to scare.
Another example of diminishing return is all the bailouts and "stimulus". What a crock. Pushing on a rope. It is sold to the public as stimulus but it is really transfer of wealth to the banking elite.
If I were able to totally deplete my 401 I would do so asap, before the goobermint converts to annuities and kills me. Time line: 90 days. Oh, the funds would go straight to silver and lead.
My frustration level is at an all time high today. I swear that if I have to see on more up day on no volume I am going to smash my head on my desk until I pass out.
That is the only thing that will stop the ringing in my ears from comment's like "this is just a market correction in the next leg up."
As if a 1K drop is a correction.
Where do you go when no-one is listening?
They are stealing my fucking money and it pisses me off!!!!
Thanks for being around zero. I have been a fan for many months.
Prices are about to crack big time. Its only a matter of time. Patience and discipline are key. If you are short, you will be rewarded. But they want to break you before they break the market. Hang in there. Good luck. See you at the bottom.
4th of July is coming. Show ur patriotism and blow something up.
(but don't do anything illegal)
I would be curious to know if the cnbc "financial journalists" are aware of the harm they enable to the naive and elderly viewers that are desperate for some return on their savings. I watched cnbc for several hours today and was amazed at endless dialogue about "money on the sidelines" and "you get a zero return unless your in equities." Are these people without conscience? They just finished facilitating the destruction of so many retirements, educations, and financial security of millions of viewers over ten years. I wonder what it would be like to be a villian of the Bin Laden type--that's who they are.
Fuck That.
Since Watergate, the 4th estate has become nothing but corporate and governmental lap dogs (probably an insult to lap dogs).
Why would you expect anything from CNBC other than pro elite propaganda. After all look who owns them.
I am not condoning CNBC, but they did not facilitate the destruction of the middle class, that was engineered by the elite in conjunction with the governing class (plutarchy).
One also wishes that citizens would educate themselves on why they are getting "zero" percent on their money unless they are in "risk assets". Who is benefiting from ZIRP (banks) and who is losing (everyone who isn't a bank).
"Accomplice" would be the correct classification.
At the start of 2008, Jim Cramer's top prediction was that Goldman would end the year at 300. The stock was at the rally high of 200. It never went any higher.
When Cramer went on the Today Show on Oct 6, 2008, to make his sell call, Goldman was selling at ~120 or 40% off the high, pretty much exactly where big money exchange insiders start accumulating on the way down.
I know either you or your acolytes are reading this Jimmy, why doesn't one of you refute me?
CNBC ='s NBC ='s General Electric ='s 0% Fed Window... and a first for the WORLD! The Treasury backs General Electric Bonds 100%!
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&source=hp&q=cnbc+ownership&aq=0&aqi=g3&aql=&oq=cnbc+ow&gs_rfai=&fp=934aa8f3e849a8f5
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/ge-capital-begins-10-billion-debt-sale/
http://www.fcic.gov/hearings/pdfs/2010-0506-Barber.pdf
The first thing I learned (many moons ago) was find the voices/people that are right and listen to them. Ignore everyone else. The CNBS more ons are in the everyone else category. There is absolutely no reason to listen to anything they say. Except Santelli is good sometimes. And the Santelli Lies-man fights are the best entertainment on tv.
Ah, Lizzy dear, why don't we just give them what they want?
Who wants to raise some money for a Carbon security issuance firm with me?
We just find the "polluters," dump some shitty securities onto the CCX, reap the fees, and buy some slaves. A la Chuck Prince... if the music is playing, why not dance?
To lift a line from "Shawshank Redemption," Erin, Maria, Liesman et al. are "Institutionalized." The financial industry has been good to them. So, they've convinced themselves that they're doing good. I'm sure a tobacco exec comes up with similar rationalizations.
I've been sayin': market crashed in a "white swan event" (the one they weren't looking for) whereby in a thinly traded HFT market where essentially Goldman trades with Goldman most of the day for over a year, as soon as a bit of size selling occurred they were completely unprepared for it. It blew the HFT algos apart as they had never even anticipated anything other than what GS would do. They were caught flat footed dropping bids further and further away from the offers just as they normally do when handling the sheeple's orders. Ha!
+1000
They are selling advertizing, it has always been a 24/7 infomercial - to conclude anything less you deserve to be shorn, watch FOX instead - the old hags on CNBS pale in comparison to the money honeys there. The FOX program is more like Fin porn than Erin-go-B-cups thinking that she's doing some real journalism....bah!
"Erin-go-B-cups"
Classic!
Erin-go-Bragh-less!
nice one!
This might sound weird, but I once did a search to see if there were any nude pictures of Erin Burnett on the Internet. Nada. Then I searched to see if there were any pictures of her in a bikini. Nothing. Is she some kind of puritan? Is it wrong to want to see Erin B. naked??
Money movin' on out ... yet the market barely notices? This display of antigravity brought to you by GS Squid and prop trading desk algos everywhere.
As I've said before, here, the exchange has a problem. They can't spike the market too close to past highs as doing so woud unleash a flood of selling from those who got caught in the crash and didn't get out, but at the same time they have to unload the inventory they accumulated during the crash.
IMO, that's why you're seeing these sharp drops followed by a slow rise just barely past the point of the previous high.
+1
Nice. Its all about managing your inventory. Rising prices attract buyers. Falling prices attract sellers The grind up, like we've seen the last couple of days, allows market makers/specialists to distribute and sell short. The flash crash provided them the opportunity to clean out all the sell orders under the market. That stock is now being distributed. A drop through the flash crash zone, if it were to occur now, would happen faster than a hot knife slicing through butter.
Noooooooooooooo!? it can't be?! Nooooooooooooo!?
All algo's pushing it higher? Just to fool the public into buying back in?
Nooooooooooooo!? They would never manage the cloud, Oops! Crowd, Oops! Herd, Oops! Sheepeople in such a way.
Noooooooooooo!? the jobless recovery of the Market is a miricle of President Bush, Tarp and Jesus all wrapped up in a neat lil box. God save the Conservatives and Austerity measures!
If there is no recovery but the market is higher? does that mean that the Bonus monies the Banks handed out too themselves without making any loans are Bogus too?
Nooooooooooooooo!? the SEC would step in... the FDIC would step in...
The Treasury's purcahsers of last resort? Nooooooooooooooooo!?
That would mean its all rigged? Noooooooooooooooo!?
Email to CNBC:
Love your work and You Betcha I love this recovery! Better than expectations and all that. And I especially love that Caruso Cabrera woman, though frankly I don't know which one is Caruso and which one is Cabrera. Anyway, what the stock market is lacking in volume, Caruso and Cabrera more than make up for it. Sometimes makes a man feel like he's got an algo bot down there on a 3:30 closing ramp, if you know what I mean.
Hate to bother you with nonsense, but when you have a moment, could you get one of your expert guests or commentators to give their take on the 40 million Americans on Foodstamps (Sugar SNAPS), the record budget deficit for April, the huge drop in tax receipts, the ongoing 450K plus weekly new jobless claims (two years into a recession and after $23 trillion in bailouts, stimulus and bank bankstopping), and especially on The Day the Bids Died (5-6-2010)?
Whoops! Sorry. I had you mistaken for a news channel! Silly me. Forgot you're just a 24-hour/day Infomercial for the Fed.
My mistake. Carry on.
All the Best,
Harry Wanker
+10
"though frankly I don't know which one is Caruso and which one is Cabrera"
Caruso is the one on the left and Cabrera is the one on the right while you are watching. Also known as a market "double top".
Fraternal twins, or maternal - hard to see through all that angora.
The left one is Caruso and the right one is Cabrera.
Not all true...retail investors locked into mutual funds may be OUT, but we individual traders are still in...in fact, I'm thinking of putting more $$ in, specifically in shorting consumer stuff, RE and financials and into precious metals, and perhaps nat. gas and agricultural commodities...
Mutual funds out? No loss...most of them are in precisely those large-cap FIRE stocks that have been pumped and pumped...
Quit it you guys. You'll make me turn on that damn channel just to see the, well, er, double tops as they say. What time are they on the infomercial?
The flash crash proved the equation--ETF--especially 2X and 3X funds are the reason the market is at these levels. HTF game these funds--the computers gage the market(nav) then go again. Without ETF's the HTF guys would go bust!! No one is in this market--but HTF algo guys --fucking the ETF funds...it is a on going screw job.. The products now rule the market..scary...
I will sum-up CNBC for the masses - "nice tits"
There are still retail investors? I'll be damned.
If these gentle folks who plot on herding the retail investors money into their pockets had done their homework, they should have noticed the ultra thin volume of the melt up and surveys like this weekly ICI numbers and other funds flow numbers are telling them their melt-up strategy is not working. The fish isn't biting the bait like in 2000 or 2007. I see the Dax and Dow shooting up to the pre-plunge level of last week, while germans and americans rush for gold. And Merkel and Obama hope to convince the same germans and americans to vote for them again by supporting risky asset values? Their advisors are getting lazy, fat, old and senile is all I can say.
I wonder if the SEC will cancel all the trades (purchases) of TLT at the height of the 25 minute panic?
TLT was booming during panic. TBT was demolished.
how could anybody buy it?
" And now that the market has been thoroughly discredited, the primary dealers have no choice but to ramp it up on no volume yet again, in hopes of pulling in the momos and the housewives into it as usual"
SAYS IT ALL. It will be ramped up to the high or above the high just to give the appearance that retail is fine and dandy with the market when retail is having nothing to do with the movement. Goldman turned off their algos for 10 minutes into the slide then picked it up to capture the lows. Options ex is next week and I'd bet ya they profit big from the slide.
Landed in Chicago at 6 Central. Staying at Intercontinental. Mich Ave is popping. Busiest spring I can recall in all the years coming here. I talked to people in two different bars and at our restaurant. All said business "is booming".
that's my point - get out and see it with your own eyes. This is real. I asked how people felt about last week's "crash". Many didn't care - said it was a non event. Most said it gave them the catalyst to buy cheap.
Whole different scene out there then the gloom spread here.
You are so right Harry,
Business is booming for me too. One part of my division has a 78% increase in clients. A second part is seeing a 53% increase, and the third part is seeing a 34% increase.
While the rest of my company has a hiring freeze and is thinking about layoffs, my division just hired 600 people or a 33% increase in my divisions labor force.
Heck, one of the specialists in my division has seen his clients increase 438%.
Oh, I work at the local welfare office. Food Stamp applications are up 78% year to date, after being up 73% last year. Medi-Cal (Medicaid) applications are up 53% after being up 58% last year. CalWORKs (TANF) applications are up 34% after being up 38% last year. The only reason that CalWORKs applications are not higher is that people are still receiving Unemployment, and a little bit of UIB (Unemployment Insurance Benefits) makes them ineligible to CalWORKs (Like ~$150.00 weekly benefit will make a family of 3 over income).
The worker in my office that has a 438% increase in clients is the General Relief worker. General Relief is a LOAN program via the county for those that do not have children and it pays a maximum of $280.00 per month, and has ridiculously strict requirements.
Caseloads per worker at standing at 250% of target. And we are having overtime every weekend to try to get the work done. While the rest of the county is facing layoffs, we seriously just hired 600 more persons, and even when they are fully up to speed (in one year), they will only reduce the caseload sizes to a projected 180% of target based on standard attrition and increased client application rate.
My county has a 15.5% Unemployment rate.
Yep, things are booming - If you are a welfare worker...
I guess it's fitting to read Harry's post while listening to NYS Governor David Paterson, on the John Gambling radio show, talk about how the State is completely broke.
Updated DOW charts showing recent buying support:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
I figured out why Erin Burnett gets under my skin so much.
It's her enthusiasm when she trumpets the party line, like a little girl showing her father a finger painting.
"Look what I made, Daddy!"
"The banks paid back TARP with interest, Daddy!"
Pray tell, Erin, how did they do that considering they aren't lending?