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Retail Sales Up 1.6%, Auto Purchases Surge By 7.5%, Electronics Sales Decline By 1.3%
From the Census Bureau:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.2 billion, an increase of 1.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 7.6 percent (±0.5%) above March 2009. Total sales for the January through March 2010 period were up 5.5 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The January to February 2010 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.5 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 1.8 percent (±0.5%) from February 2010 and 8.2 percent (±0.5%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 26.4 percent (±1.5%) from March 2009 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were up 14.1 percent (±2.5%) from last year.
The biggest component to the increase in March was the traditionally noisy and excluded Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers, which increased from $53.4 billion to $69.9 billion. What we find surprising is that in light of all the rage over tech, sales at Electronic and Appliance Stores declined by -1.3% from $8.4 billion to $8.3 billion. How this is possible with ever increasing "strategic" mortgage defaults is beyond us. We can't wait to see the latest consumer savings rate data.
Other notable changes from February:
- Food services & drinking places: 0.1%
- Grocery stores: 0.1%
- Clothing & clothing accessories stores: 2.3%
- Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers: 3.1%
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Survivorship bias... Mom & pop retailers that aren't counted are folding up, driving business to the better-capitalized Big Box stores that are.
Otherwise, it's difficult to explain how sales tax receipts remain flat to negative.
Why, in an environment of 17% unemployment, anyone would buy anything other than basic necessities, is a complete mystery to me, though.
Otherwise, it's difficult to explain how sales tax receipts remain flat to negative.
Ding! It's not difficult - it's impossible.
Census Bureau == Bureau of Making Shit Up
consensus bureau
Other notable changes from February
Business days in March increase 15% to 23 days from 20 days in February.
If you're hooked on electronic junk and the "games" it supplies it is hard to kick the habit, you might only see those sales drop once the "bread" part of the equation becomes unaffordable.
An effect of rising import prices.
Also the result of March seasonal adjustment not taking into account record income tax refunds - a one off event.
Which by the way will continue, I am receiving an absolutely ridiculous 62% of my federal taxes back - I plan on saving all of that other than paying off a couple bills which might take up 20% of it, but others will probably not be so frugal...
Could it be that Americans learned nothing over the past 2 years and have already returned to debt buying consumption? Or is this just a short term bump as people replace their torn overhauls?
Ironically all those increasing "strategic" mortgage defaults may be giving consumers more disposable income to spend on dining out, the supermarket, clothing, etc. Or this bogus stock market rally may be the impetus for more retail spending. Still the employment and earnings numbers are bleak so yea the savings rate must be getting lower.
Yes, thats it!
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/04/it-makes-sense.html
precisely.
I will say it again, ABC consumer confidence fell from -43 to -47
so how can advance retail sales be sooooo good?
Two Words: Census Bureau
another con, like the bls figures!
What I find surprsing is how completely biased to the negatives Zerohedge is....can't you just admit these are OK numbers (not necessarily good, but OK).
I think you are losing credibility by refusing to admint that there are signs of stabilizing and improvement in the real economy.
nope, these are real spending but this is due to morgage defaults, now if you dont pay morgage then you have a lot of money in your hand to spend.
This is what happening, this is more scary than anything else, people are hopeless.using their last bullets.
Ok, I know this explanation is fashionable...and even if it was true, then what? people don't pay their mortgages, banks foreclose on them and they rent a home. Big deal. The rest of the economy will be working just fine, in the end there had to come a time when the economy would wean itself off housing.
Unless there is a lot of equity to seize, banks are not foreclosing on people who have long had no intention of ever paying their mortgages again. If they foreclose the house just sits there, gets vandalized, stripped of copper, etc. Letting loan deadbeats stay in the house, free of rent, is cheaper.
Zexe, In 1971 when the Fed still abided by the gold standard and credit was "worshippen", there were less than 1 % of American men and women in US prisons. By 2009/10 those numbers were 10% for men and 7% for women in jail. How is that a recovery ? What kind of mother(land) wants to see 10% of its able bodied men and women decaying in jail. Something is fatally wrong somewhere. And guess what curves for M3 money supply and prisoner population correlate exactly between 1925-2009 !! Things got worse after 1982 when the stupid 401k programs started.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Incarceration_rate_of_inmates_incarcerated_under_state_and_federal_jurisdiction_per_100,000_population_1925-2008.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg
Read the Financial Armageddon article linked above. Basically it's like this (item #2 given in the comments section):
1) People have more "disposable" income due to halting mortgage payments (many still living in their homes for a year w/o paying);
2) Income tax refunds.
I'd also point out that, as another ZH article notes (or is it This one? too much activity to keep up!), there are 15% more business days in March than in April.
Anyone know whether "retail" sales figures include liquidations of consumer products (i.e. bankruptcy processing)?
Landlords have signs out saying "bad credit accepted".
So if your mortgage is, say, 6% of property value, but renting costs 3%, and bad credit is no obstacle ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126040517376983621.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a93abcea-1fe7-11df-8deb-00144feab49a.html
Zexe, clearly you do not know of The Prophecy. It says, "There shall come a blog that brings balance to The Force."
I will tell you that here in Texas it's all good, mostly. However, any of you unemployed deadbeats, aspiring astronauts, fucktards, libs, neo-cons, queers wanting to get hitched, foreigners, Cali junk dealers, market manipulators, traders, traitors, revenuers, dealers, Hawaiian-sons-of-African-goat-herders, circus acts, ex-DJs, lawyers, old sick people, and welfare octo-moms might want to stay away. Greener pastures await you on either coast.
However, faith healers, cowboys, sons-of-oil-rich-Arabs, wetbacks, and pole dancers seem to still be welcome in the Lone Star State, according to my analysis of data leaked from the new census.
However, any of you unemployed deadbeats, aspiring astronauts, fucktards, libs, neo-cons, queers wanting to get hitched, foreigners, Cali junk dealers, market manipulators, traders, traitors, revenuers, dealers, Hawaiian-sons-of-African-goat-herders, circus acts, ex-DJs, lawyers, old sick people, and welfare octo-moms might want to stay away. Greener pastures await you on either coast.
Well done.
What about rain-makers and "forked - stick - water - finder" experts?
Oh please, stabilizing and improvement in the real economy?
The past 15 years have been a failed experiment in giving massive amounts of credit to a populous with declining earnings power. Now it's time to pay up.
We are still not anywhere near the edge of the forest, getting out of the woods ain't gonna happen anytime soon.
There is no credibility loss a ZH because they take a skeptical view of "data" produced by the government. Maybe if people had been doing that over the years, the economy wouldn't be in such a mess.
Circa March 1930?
I'm 40 years old, college degree in engineering, and I have NEVER had the good fortune of being part of any "boom" as discussed by the MSM. From my own experiences, I see ZH as exposing the truth about the world economy, and providing some insight as to why my personal experience isn't what the news indicates it should be.
I'll get your back. 39 with a BSc mechanical. Married, one child, Chicago area. Work in the capital goods (large fabricated equipment) for foundries, recycling, renewable energy, and mining serving the domestic and international arenas. After 7 years as a design engineer, made the move to contract sales and working at the same company for 16 years.
Things have never been worse, stimulus money meant nothing. I make less than I did in 1999 after our sales compensation was eliminated, then salaries cut. It's only a matter of time before I move on or the doors close and/or a domestic managing staff will relocate efforts to China or India as our competitors are doing.
Side note: The average Joe thread - I'm one of those assholes that bought a house that was well below my means of living, before my salary was cut to the point that I'm now month to month and running in the red when large bills come due. Thanks to my storing nuts in the good years (something sales guys figure out rather quickly when you're commission based), we're making it, but dying the death of a thousand cuts. The comments on that thread spoke volumes of lack of life experience.
There's seem to be a lot of new faces here at ZH as of late - and I get the feeling that they are of college or recent grad age.
Jeff, I'm 35 with a BS in metallurgy and a MBA in marketing. I've worked for several years in sales/marketing positions, but never experienced any demand for my engineering skills. Since last year, I've been studying IT - hoping that it will turn out somehow.
You are not alone. Best wishes for you and your family.
*raising hand* - BS in computer science. Worked with a team that was 85% H1b (at the time I didn't realize what that was). Even that was 'too expensive' so they closed up shop. Outsourced 2 more times so figured I gotta get 'on the ground' do some physical work. Became I.T. lone ranger doing EVERYTHING (setting up routers, microwave, pulling voice/data, setting up retail stores, writing software modules and tools, scripting, etc.) - IBM pitches cost savings by having Chindiazil do 'remote support' so 50% of I.T. was let go. IBM's solution is practically worthless unless you need a password reset. Turnaround on issues is now over a week when they can find subcontractors to fumble around at $10/hr... this story could go on and on. Not sure how companies expect any kind of dedication these days. The race to the bottom accelerates. If anyone needs a lawn mowed, shed built, or house painted, call me up. Will relocate for general landscaping opportunity.
I feel for ya. The g/f's complaint is that for as bad as IT is needed, management won't pay for it. "Hire cheap" is key, just to say they have the staff on-hand--staff who can't get a Security+ cert. Sad. Glad I'm learning Chinese...
Computer science degree. 10 years exeperience. (Well actually 8 considering I was unemployed for almost 2 out of first 10). Saw all the off shoring and the H1Bs in house. Never had a good stable job although was paid quite well at a few gigs. Mostly contract stuff. Now work for a company that sells pig snot to bullshitters and pays me what the internet says is entry level pay for a computer programmer. This company is doing a little better than last year but I suspect it won't last.
I might be one of the guys that helped retail figures. I bought my girlfriend a pair of hiking boots from TJ Max and myself an oven mit and an aprin from Bed Bath and Beyond. But only afforded because I have extra cash from not paying my mortgage for the last 15 months.
TJ Max has hiking boots? Gonna have to look into that as I'm working to "store nuts" and other emergency and disaster preparedness stuff.
... there are signs of stabilizing and improvement in the real economy.
We eagerly await your recitation of what, precisely, they are.
When you've been lied to for so many years it's easy to have a negative bias. When your tax dollars are going to save institutions that should have failed it's easy to have a negative bias....catch the direction I'm going with on this?
I'm perfectly willing to accept good information, but I don't see it. Making up shit is not real good information, and where I live it doesn't look all that good.
And as was mentioned just about the beginning of this it's hard to see where increased sales come from when the sales tax receipts aren't climbing. It suggests that people are 1) buying internet and avoiding sales tax or 2) the number are being concocted by the Census bureau.
I don't recall expressing anything terribly negative. I'm just asking the question: How can one reconcile an increase in retail sales to flat-or-falling state sales tax receipts?
As one poster indicated, sales tax receipts may be a lagging indictor. In this case, we should see confirmation of this in the next state sales tax reports. It is an empirical hypothesis.
My theory is that it's survivorship bias.
I'd just like to see this disparity explained.
Obviously, people who can spend money are spending. It's pretty clear. I have to admit, the economy is much stronger than I would have anticipated at this point. My goodness, look at Apple, they can't even keep products in supply. Crazy but it looks like reality now.
Even a comatose patient twitches and gives other hopeful signs of life from time to time. Take it from a lower class member...things are rough out here. AAPL and INTC are not indicators of the so called real economy. These Midwestern towns are dead. Try telling the masses of unemployed how strong the economy is…get out of your cozy den and take a look at the real world.
Its tough out here and people are scared shitless.
People who can't really afford to spend money have also always spent money.
Firms like Apple and the cellphone-texting legions are the direct benficiary of this mentality and a perfect microcosm of the US: people with little or no money, shipping dollars overseas to purchase stuff they really don't need but must have the latest and greatest version of.
"not adjusted for prices" says it all.
It all makes sence :
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/04/it-makes-sense.html
People send more on their cars, other expenses because they can afford now after defaulting their morgages.
It's actually more pronounced than that - people are buying cars BECAUSE they default on their mortgage.
It works like this: people know their credit will get trashed after they default. But auto loans are fixed rate. So they buy the car, THEN default.
I am seeing this a lot. To me, the increase in auto sales is a sign defaults are about to increase. This makes sense given the government recently increased the incentives to default.
If you aren't paying your mortgage you have lots of money to spend on other things...like hair, cell phones, flat screens and bling.
Let's not forget that US population increases 1% each year. Adding inflation (especially energy prices), in real terms per capita, you'd see something much lower.
In addition to the idea that people aren't paying their mortgages, I think you can also throw in the idea that the two stimuli have increased the number of people who don't pay any income taxes by almost 25% (38% in 2007 to 47% in 2009).
Hey, it is easy to buy crap when you no longer are paying your mortgage or property tax. if I was in a Mcmansion and knew I was going to lose it or Bumbama was going to make the Heloc payment go away, I too would spend,spend ,spend, mine would be on gold though.
When you buy gold it is not called "spending". That is called "saving" in my book.
I simply just say bullshit. They are lying. Sales Tax revenue tells a different story.
ABK back in fashion again today. The craziness never ends!
As I've noted before, the answer is in the Citigroup "Plutonomy" memo. Yes the average person is still getting hosed. Yes the jobs are gone forever. Yes people are still losing their homes and their savings. Yes retirement will soon be a thing of the past.
It doesn't matter. The top 5% are doing better than ever, and their consumption is what matters to the stats. How can retail sales go up when unemployment hasn't budged and whatever home equity people had is gone? Easy. The wealthiest have made huge gains in their stock portfolios and they have free money from the Fed to burn.
The goal was never to help "main street" as our consumption has little effect on the overall economics stats. The goal was to save the wealthiest from collapse so that they could keep spending and drive the statistics upwards. Then the govt can use the stats to claim "recovery" and hope the rest of us buy into it, therefore keeping the unwashed masses from breaking out the pitchforks against the elites.
The top tier are investing, not buying a bunch more consumer products (yes, perhaps they are buying a bit more, but in no way could they raise the levels in the face of decline by the largest consumer class on earth).
Savings? The spending was fueled by a decline of $50 Billion in Money market accounts.
What about credit card data? I know that the credit has been cut? But what about the credit that hasn't been cut? Is it being used?
I would guess they're using whatever means they have although I'd like to see the numbers. If the card issuer is their bank / mortgage holder I'd bet that the CC is getting about the same treatment as the defaulted mortgage.
This is the thing about unintended consequences. Congress didn't do what they should have done (let them fail) so the people in their anger of having the banker class get bailed out are now doing what they can to bring them down. Probably not collectively, but they're taking a dump on their banks any way they can...just a theory mind you.
Fun fact that I didn't know until this morning: Wal*Mart isn't part of this report. No idea why.
This would seem to be a major exclusion.
#1. Sales tax receipts shed a less positive light on the matter...
#2. Consumer confidence is down...
#3. More and more businesses are folding. I'm in SE Florida, and by the end of last summer noticed a surge in small business closings (over 100 in a very small area). Over the winter things seemed flat - not many small business closings and several banks opening new locations (suprise!), and one new restaurant. Within the last month there has been a second wave of small business closings - and at an accelerated pace. This is all observational, and I think none-the-less relevant.
I know RE was hit hard down here, but I fear this area is simply ahead of the curve... BTW, I'd say unemployment is closer to 20%+ in this neck of the woods.
Real struggle to keep the price of gold down today.
Wonder if they have realised the computer link between GS and the stock exchange is national security risk. Should be F22s and soldiers protecting it. Wonder how far stocks would plunge if the link between GS and the exchange was severed.
Ok, so why such a low growth in the "drinking places" metric? I mean, come on, true un/deremployment north of 20% ,and nobody's hittin' the sauce? Maybe jim bob is makin his own corn squeezin's from an old piece of shoe leather and some ragweed?
Below begins JOHN WILLIAMS’ SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS Commentary Number 290: Updated Liquidity and Economic Outlook, April 9, 2010 (subscription only report)…
The Rosy Scenario’s Missing Basic Element: Systemic Liquidity. Despite heavy revisions by the Fed to money supply-related data in the last two weeks, the pattern of the worst annual contraction in modern economic reporting of real (inflation-adjusted) broad money supply continues, signaling looming deterioration in U.S. business conditions, an intensified economic downturn or "double-dip recession" in popular terminology. The implications here remain for severely exacerbated government (federal and state) fiscal and funding crises, for exacerbated banking system problems and for eventual severe selling pressure against the U.S. dollar. …
It's really simple. Wall street and federal employees are doing great. Main street and the private sector are getting crushed. This is all part of the plan.
I live in one of the most prosperous areas of the most stable state, Charlottesville, VA. Don't believe a word of it. There are no jobs! Not even restauant bullshit stuff. Real estate, whether residential or commercial sits and stinks, and stinks and sits. Foreclosures are kept to a trickle by the banks, but it's all extend and pretend. I know guys who should have been closed out years ago, but the banks don't want the property.
Rents are sky high, wages have collapsed. Lots of people are leaving. That seems to be true everywhere. Where are they all going?
This begins to end when the government gets the hell out of the way and lets free markets function. Until then everything is frozen.
Wall street and federal employees are doing great.
This is really the issue IMHO. One of the main drivers for the economy is small business, and we are experiencing a depression, no other way to express it. Just look at the NFIB report:
Confidence among U.S. small businesses fell in March to the lowest level since July 2009 as executives grew more concerned about earnings and sales, a private survey found.
So we really have a bifurcated economy right now. if you were a victim of the debt bubble, especially construction, you are hurting. If you are a small business you are getting squeezed, regulations and taxes and limited pricing power are big challenges.
If you are a government employee, all is good.
But the gravy train will not last forever.
sschu
One of the main drivers for the economy is small business
Small business represents roughly 50% of all business, so yes, it's key.
However, stroll down your local small business street and tell me what it is that they are selling/providing. With the exception of a few, most are just downsized versions of the big consumer junk stores, who would eventually be crushed by those big stores (the Wal-Mart story): yes, toss in some small manufacturing, farming etc, but these are the exceptions, their numbers are but a small percentage. Tossing govt out wouldn't resolve this issue, it would only delay the day of reckoning.
Eventually we will lose big govt and big business (co-dependents), small business will be all that will exist; but, that small business will be primarily ONLY essentials.
the bottom line is that the average hump in this country has ZERO net worth and quite possibly a negative net worth. this avg. hump is merely a conduit through which FRN's pass as they float back into the economy. Many humps are partially if not ENTIRELY dependent on gubmint transfer payments to eat and have shelter. many persons on assistance are the first to spend money the second money comes their way.
i do not consider a woman on food stamps buying food at WalMart to be economic activity yet it is counted as both a retail sale as well as a contribution to GDP. Back out DIRECT government cash transfer payments and tell me what retail sales and GDP are at that point..
nearly half the US population pays NO federal taxes and about half receive a gubmint check of some sort (SS, Medicare, Medicaid, Welfare, Food stamps, home heating subsidies, free school lunches, tuition assistance, Section 8 housing and so on) back much of that out of the equation and what do you have left?
this country is a busted out and insolvent freakshow of illiterates and morbidly obese simpletons. some jagoff on welfare buying an ipod and expensive sneakers is not economic activity in my book but it is calculted as such. always remember this simple fact: the average american has NO net worth and is born into, lives and dies as a part of the SAME economic and social class. this country is a sham...
"this country is a busted out and insolvent freakshow of illiterates and morbidly obese simpletons."
Man, I've got to try to remember that one for future use. Hope you don't mind.
please do.. there are plenty more where that came from...