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Retail Sales Down 0.5% Versus Expectations Of -0.3%, Auto Sales Plunge 2.3%
The deflation threat continues as the drop in total retail sales persists, with the latest number coming in at -0.5%, once again worse than expectations of -0.3%, compared to a prior revised number of -1.1%. Ex autos come in at -0.1%, in line with expectations. The biggest plunge was in "Motor vehicle & parts dealers" which plunged 2.3% in June.
From the release: "The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $360.2 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 4.8 percent (±0.7%) above June 2009. Total sales for the April through June 2010 period were up 6.8 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2010 percent change was revised from -1.2 percent (±0.5%) to -1.1 percent (±0.2%)."
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Futures rise on the news...
I'm adjusting my short SPY limit orders accordingly
Edit: looks like those who chased that futures rally may have their asses handed to them in short order.
time to ralllllllly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Buy BUy BUY!
Car sales: last years incentive isn't a indicator for this year.
Retail down : 0.2% on expectations. That's not even a number!
SO: All is good! I might even say: GREAT!
my ignorant friend, look at those bar charts again, I think you are dillusional...the auto incentives are still in full force btw..we will see much worse yoy numbers including autos in August and September when scrappage was around last year but not this year..I bet this number will be revized lower next month..
If I would make a bar chart of your IQ, I still could make it pop to the sky.
A little exeggeration on the legend and it's done.
You'll still be a idiot, and yes you could say: LOOK AT THAT BAR CHART! WAW!
Game.
Set.
Match.
Anyone else seeing the complete disconnect between WS and the population at large? It is as if the people are living and breathing free market economics while stocks and bonds play in some la la land of mystery prices and movements.
Retail is down- that happens when you have no money or employment and the government cuts back on free services.
@Sudden Debt
Link, please. And don't try telling this to the Gulf Coast tourism industry.
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/USTOA-Members-See-Uptick-in-2010-Vacation-Bookings-1286650.htm
NEW YORK, NY--(Marketwire - July 7, 2010) -
Higher gains in international travel than domestic shows a 2-speed recovery and a strong $.
If you have the $, you are feeling a recovery. If you don't, things are flat or getting worse. You can't build a recovery on the top 20%. (Only 20% of americans have passports.)
So they spend internationally, and they do not spend in the US.
And if that 20% is out of the country and retail goes down 0.1%, then according to your logic, the recovery is enormously strong.
I'm going to south america for vacation. Just saying.
Uh, I'm going to go with seasonality on this one. Have anything that shows y/o/y?
D-E-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.
You might like to take a look at todays imprt/export price data.
Marketwire?
Integrity?
SOURCE: United States Tour Operators Association (USTOA)
Jul 07, 2010 10:30 ETegrityTry Tylers latest Sudden Dumbass- 'Americans no longer drinking the Kool-Aid, 76% see america mired in depression'
Sure Sudden Debt! Everyones booking overseas travel plans! Well maybe not overseas travel vacations, but planning to park their VAN down by the RIVER for quite a long time!!
Do you ever make an intelligent post? Or is it always just flailing about ?
If you mean by "intelligent post" not calling you a idiot : Yes, I don't make any at all.
And for the rest, I doubt if you ever read any. Let alone the articles in full of ZH.
The problem is that knee-jerk abusive behavior undermines whatever arguments/points you might have. It's a sign of insecurity. I know, I know, I'm an idiot .....
You forgot your sarcasm button.
Surreal.
.
Wait till the 2 million not receiving unemployment checks hits.
Nah. They were waiting until the bene's ran out before looking for work. They all have jobs now...
I think I heard on CNBS that Steve Liesman said the number that goes into GDP from this data was positive (the only reason I had the damn thing on is that the government release is never posted on time, but it's on a goddamn computer and it's automated. They just want a chance to leak it to their friends first). Green shoot. Also, Hoenig blathered right afterward that growth is strong to quite strong and we'll be hitting 3+% this year.
After listening to Hoenig just now, and the way they keep revising GDP numbers down after the fact, they are still trying to push the 3% GDP number, and that is not going to create any jobs anytime soon. Anyone out of work, should plan to be out of work for a long time, and there is no way QE 2.0 does not happen. It must happen now and is just a matter of time before it does. They are going to have to extend UE benefits again and once QE 2.0 hits, then sometime afterward inflation is going to run amok, and rates are going to skyrocket.
1100, 1100, 1100...
Does anyone know where to get the national sales tax data? I read sales tax was down 6.9pc YoY yet these clowns are reporting a rise for H1.
http://www2.census.gov/govs/qtax/2010/q1t1.pdf
Note that CPI is not factored into this. On a CPI adjusted basis it's down vs. 1st quarter 2009.
With November elections right around the corner, I have a feeling that the media and current administration are making a heroic effort to keep the markets from completely melting down. Look for things to move quickly after November.
Without the car sales, it's only a measly -0.1%!
THAT IS THE SAME AS A STATUS QUO!
No reason to read anything negative into that!
The retail sales first rise for 7 months, than stop rising a bit and hover down 0.1%!
WAW, schocking!
Zero isn't a good number in a recovery.
It's vacation time, so it just pauzes like everyting else.
Isn't that what the seasonal adjustment is intended to counteract?
Pausing for too long ruins the tape.
There is no recovery. At best, some of the propoganda is taking root and people are spending money they don't have again. There are no jobs. It used to be that I had to interview 2-3 people (out of maybe four applications) for a given position that opened, now I get 20+. And my area has the second lowest unemployment in a state with the lowest unemployment rate in the country.
So blow this "recovery" out your fannie. I'll beleive it when the unemployment rate in my neighborhood is the same as the "official" unemployment rate and/or under 10%.
"The retail sales first rise for 7 months"
Yep. But monthly retail sales are still below the level reached at the "double top" in 2007 /2008:
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/07/retail-sales-june-2010....
Nice chart, uh?
The problem is that the entire fiat-currency economic system worldwide is dependent on 3-4% real (not nominal) economic growth every single year. Flat GDP numbers for any length of time will cause the system to implode on itself, because the debt that constantly needs to be rolled over can no longer be serviced.
Time to Rally? Come one, I didn't know there were so many Cramer fans around...
After the complete decouple of ES from Bonds, a three day rally on no volume.... you know what... just go long....good luck.
Perhaps we should just go short everyday into the face tearing rallys that happen every other week. That would be smarter right?
Thanks TD for the full report.
Only positive number in the detailed report seems to be electronics, the rest is consistently weak. If that disconnect happens anywhere else in the world it's called the World Cup effect, as everyone buys a bigger TV, and gets it discounted as a 1-off. Nice to see you americans are taking to "saccer".
Good point on the electronics, though the world cup effect probably didn't hit here, as we Americans don't have the attention span necessary to watch "saccer."
I have a pretty good attention span and I try and be open minded and give "saccer" a chance. There's just not enough scoring. Maybe they could make the field smaller, maybe add some goalposts or something too.
Don't worry, it's not just you. God Himself could not have created a game more boring than soccer.
Yes he did: Baseball and American Football.
Netherlands-Brazil was a great game. Netherlands-Spain not so much. It ticked me off that the Spanish player who scored the winning goal was flopping the entire game. There was one play in particular where instant replay showed the Dutch player's leg completely missed him, he fell down like he was shot with an elephant gun, and he was awarded a free kick.
Ah. Silly of me. Its TV's and.... iPhones. How could i forget the huge economic impact of all those iPhoneys taking their wage checks from being census workers and buying a $600 gimpPhone.
Must have been the weather...
40% of consumer spending today is supported by incremental federal, state and local debt. a complete joke. this is no different than the company that takes on debt in order to cover its dividend and operating expenses, e.g. General Motors.
Well... 14 months in a row of U-3 unemployment above 9% now...
2 million americans lost unemployment benefits in the last 40 days. Part of them will become homeless soon.
Can't wait to see what the MSM will say in May 2011: "24 months in a row of U-3 unemployment above 9% shows strong recovery is unstoppable!"
Before I would become homeless, because a bunch of bankers wrecked the economy and cost me my job, I would stay in my house armed and force them to take me out of the house. If I were a neighbor of such a person in that situation, I would encourage the whole neighborhood to support this person, and help him stay in his home by force if that is the way they want to play it. Don't leave and go in the street, make them take you from the home. Neighbors sticking together and stopping it is the way to handle it. They don't want that kind of publicity in the news everywhere. One neighborhood did this in Michigan and the police left and let them stay in the foreclosed home. Bankers don't own people, they only think they do with their money.
Another tell from The LA Times article.
"About 25.5% of consumers — or 43.4 million people — had credit scores below 600 in April, according to FICO Inc. Historically, only about 15% of consumers — or 25.5 million — have had scores below that level, FICO said."
Everybody I know is uncomfortable with this economy, most are totaly out of the market 70% are paycheck to paycheck and the ones who have money aren't spending a dime.
best meter is your local olive garden
are they busy?
if yes, then the middle class is spending
is this the really 'BAD' news that all u guys had been waiting for....i cant really fathom ...how bad it really is??
The sales numbers will continue to decline along with GDP for the next several months. Sales tax revenue is declining across the country. Unfortunately with the fall elections this will all be covered up somehow.
So I short Ford on the poor auto news, and of course it goes up. WTF?? I suck at shorting.
what's your time limit on the Ford puts? I'm not following it but the auto industry mostly gets a boost after the summer so I would go long on it.
Also, when I short, I always step out after a 40% gain. Otherwise you lose most of the time.
No time limits, but I keep my stops tight 'cause I don't seem to be much good at it.
A 40% gain from shorting is something I have yet to experience, but good on you if you do.
Hmmm. Sales falling through the floor, Dry Shipping sinking, who wants to buy a house or mortgage, yep, it looks like, smells like, feels like D-E-F-L-A-T-I-O-N....Sure glad American doesn't make anything anymore. That will "save" us....NOT!
Pretty amazing the lack of market reaction. I guess the cheerleading on earnings for the last gasp of the inventory rebuild/stimulus is too deafening for the bulls to see the cliff they are running towards. All I can say is it will be fun watching the market collapse in the ensuing months:)
nice shorting opportunity today.. or a trap..
seems that 1100 is too high a barrier.
why?
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