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Retail Sales Ex-Autos In Line With Expectations, As Empire Index Plunges: New Orders Drop Largest Since September 2001

Tyler Durden's picture


October advance retail sales came in at 1.2%, higher than expected 0.7%, and higher than a previously revised 0.7%. The bulk of the beat came from auto sales. Stripping for those, yields retail sales of 0.4%, right in line with expectations. Furthermore, the ever critical General Merchandise stores category in its Non-seasonally adjusted form, dropped from 50,010 to 46,189, hardly the SA beat that was reported.

From the release:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $367.7 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.3 percent (±0.7%) above September 2009. Total sales for the July through September  2010 period were up 5.7 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2010 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.7 percent (±0.3%).

Elsewhere, the Empire Manufacturing Index was clobbered missing expectations by over 25 points, printing at -11.14, on expectations of 14, and a previous read of 15.73

From the horrendous release:

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions deteriorated in November for New York State manufacturers. For the first time since mid-2009, the general business conditions index fell below zero, declining 27 points to -11.1. The new orders index  plummeted 37 points to -24.4, and the shipments index also fell below zero. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received  declined, with the latter falling into negative territory. The index for number of employees remained above zero but was well below its October level, and the average workweek index dropped to -13.0. Future indexes generally climbed, suggesting that conditions were expected to improve in the months ahead, although the capital spending and technology spending indexes inched lower.

On the negative General Business Conditions print:

The general business conditions index fell below zero for the first time since July of 2009, dropping a steep 27 points to -11.1—an indication that, on balance, conditions had worsened over the month. The percentage of respondents reporting that conditions had improved fell from 35 percent in October to just 17 percent in November, while the percentage reporting that conditions had worsened rose from 20 percent to 28 percent. The new orders index plummeted 37 points to -24.4, its sharpest drop since September 2001. Nearly 40 percent of respondents reported that orders were down. The shipments index fell 26 points to -6.1, and the unfilled orders  index declined 23 points to -24.7. The delivery time index, at -9.1, was little changed. The inventories index rose to zero after dropping into negative territory last month.

Charting the New Orders plunge:

In fact, every diffusion index fell, except... wait for it: inventories. The old inventory-restocking game continues. Look for margins to be clobbered soon to quite soon.

But who cares: POMO, and remember: aside from all the facts, the economy is absolutely improving!



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Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:42 | 727302 godzila
godzila's picture

Excellent news indeed...

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:46 | 727310 Superdrol
Superdrol's picture

That's funny.  Time to rally +500 points instead of 1,000.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:47 | 727313 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Of course, with the GM IPO on the horizon, you'd want to make sure auto sales are looking healthy.....

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:49 | 727325 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Must be fleet sales - once again

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:11 | 727360 moregoldplease
moregoldplease's picture

Remember GE ordered 12,000 Chevy Volts for the company fleet just last month.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:16 | 727366 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

So, knowing GE, they probably bought the cars on a bulk discount, then sold the vehicles into a special purpose vehicle (financed by GE Capital) for an elevated price and recognized a profit on the whole structure...

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:20 | 727377 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Sounds complicated; couldn't they just steal one from the lot and be done with it?

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:53 | 727330 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

What portion of their sales are now in Asia?

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:04 | 727352 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Why does it have to be anything? It's a made up number like everything else.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 12:26 | 727654 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

you got that right! often wonder how market players discount statistical BS, if they simply ignore it, or more likely have decent research in-house

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:35 | 727419 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I can't imagine anyone buying the GM IPO, except if the funds to do so were being provided by the government. Will the Fed itself be the largest (or only) buyer of the GM IPO?

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 15:12 | 728093 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

It is everyone's patriotic duty to buy the GM IPO!  The government MUST get it's money back.  The unions must get their money.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:53 | 727314 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Since the only thing manufactured in NY are financial derivatives, wouldn't one think it is a positive thing for the global economy that less derivatives are being created?


I would wager a guess that if stores were not bringing their sales up in October, that ex-auto would easily have been 0.2 or less.  It is easy to boost volume by having sales.  What I am curious about is how much this will destroy November and December numbers?

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:48 | 727318 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

None of this matters, blah blah, buy AAPL, POMO, f&cking whatever

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:48 | 727319 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

ispite of the rising US dollar......european stocks are flying high.......whatever happened to that Rising-US-dollar-will-floor-stocks .....

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:49 | 727322 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

If the Philly fed follows look out!

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:55 | 727337 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

For what! Banana ben will ram up more QE or devalue the dollar more so the tiny sliver of manufacturing the USA does might grow a tad

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:44 | 727433 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

You're like one of those cargo cult people except you seem to have an undying belief in the power of the Fed. Long-term interest rates have been rising since the launch of QE-2, not falling as they were supposed to. More QE -> higher interest rates = failure and forced abdonment of QE.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:50 | 727326 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

This with the imminent tax payer backed bailout of sovereigns in Europe and FED monetizations every day this week should give equities a nice boost.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:23 | 727387 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Only when denominated in fiat. YMMV.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:51 | 727327 Grandpa Bear Hug
Grandpa Bear Hug's picture

Gotta love seasonal adjustments as it makes everything appear bright, cheery and shiny:


Bldng Material $24.451 bil while $23.864 bil NSA

Clothing $18.186 bil while $17.647 bil NSA

Electronics $8.647 bil while $7.512 NSA

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:52 | 727329 Djirk
Djirk's picture

Net w/o inflation, negative?

Net w/o gasoline, negative?

Net w/o iPhones, negative?

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:54 | 727332 shushup
shushup's picture

Those Retards at CNBC don't bother to look at the details of the report.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:58 | 727343 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

CNBC's only job now is to carry the mad monetizers water. 

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:47 | 727440 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Please, CNBC, is busy QVCing the whore house to the Middle East:Dubai.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:59 | 727342 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Seems like the data is sporadically starting to turn down. 

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 09:59 | 727344 mbasham
mbasham's picture

durden, you've got the general merchandise numbers completely wrong, NSA up 49860 from 46251, month to month, but this reflects large seasonal factor; SA 51083 up a tiny bit from 50981, or about 0.2%; elsewhere, the seasonal adjustment for building supply stores appears very questionable compared to 2009; i have less and less faith in each gov. econ number that comes out

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:00 | 727346 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

This is what Wallstreet sees.  The Headlines are all that matters. Dont worry about the fine print. 2 more hours till POMO... YEA!!!

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:02 | 727348 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Anyone notice sign and drive is back with auto dealers big time. Just sign your X and roll off the lot in your new Escalade.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:25 | 727392 snowball777
snowball777's picture

The new home refinancing.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:26 | 727395 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Good times are here again just like Wanger said.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 12:12 | 727610 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Does this mean we'll be seeing an auto bubble?

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:05 | 727349 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture
Caterpillar in $7.6 Billion Deal for Bucyrus

The purchase of Bucyrus will help Caterpillar expand its global footprint in the mining equipment industry, Bucyrus specializes in surface and underground equipment for the extraction of coal, copper and other minerals.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:07 | 727358 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Gold and silver are looking to make a mad dash to the upside this week.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:04 | 727353 David99
David99's picture

FED is by the elites, for elites, from elites & Fraud Street gang. FED has nothing to do with Main Street

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:07 | 727356 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Get long the EURO now.  I'm guessing that when POMO is released, there will also be an IRISH bailout announced.  Double power POMO, send the EURO skyhigh and the POMO will push equities back above the top of the channel.  Atomic POMO today.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:18 | 727368 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I think this will be another sell during the POMO, then buy at about 1:30ish for the EOD pump. 

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:20 | 727373 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Why not get long the real currency instead?

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:50 | 727445 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The only real currency are skills that are benificial to society.  Even gold/silive/whatever has its limitations, especially if there was a true collapse in global currencies. 

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 12:13 | 727614 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Good Lord, there is someone out there with some common sense! Folks need to stop worrying about hoarding goods and the like. Focus on learning skills people need were TSTHTF. Baking, gardening, physical protection (be a good shot, don't just own guns), raising children, etc.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:16 | 727365 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

obamajokecare - waivers left and right - especially for unions

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:37 | 727411 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Adventist Care Centers

UFCW Allied Trade Health & Welfare Trust

HCR Manor Care

New England Health Care

Aegis Insurance

Alliance One Tobacco

Carlson Restaurants

Jeffords Steel and Engineering

Uh huh...I'm sure the couple hundred people in each local are much more relevant than the 209,423 from Aetna, idiot. Sooner or later you morons will figure out that your hero Ronnie finished off the unions and the 12% of the workforce that is still in one aren't nearly as useful for frightening the populace as they were in the 80s.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 11:28 | 727509 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

...And you're a Red team/Blue team douchebag. 

  UFT Welfare Fund - 351,000      


Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:20 | 727374 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Ooh, Tyler, the way you said POMO - I think I've just had an orgasm...


Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:20 | 727375 shushup
shushup's picture

How is it that people can afford to buy all these new cars?

Of course all the new Payments will mean less money to spend on general goods, unless all of these new purchases are expiring leases going to purchases.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:28 | 727398 snowball777
snowball777's picture

 0% financing for up to 60 months

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 12:15 | 727617 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

That's not long enough! I demand 0% financing for up to Judgment Day!

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:31 | 727408 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Dude, when you stop paying your mortgage your disposable income surges.


Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:33 | 727413 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Assuming you have an income.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 10:42 | 727429 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

My bet is we sell off after Pomo. Hey everyday this week is Pomo.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 11:50 | 727559 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Well this explains why there was a huge spike in govt backed non-revolving consumer went to autos. A false rise in sales...gotta love it.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 12:00 | 727580 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Retail Sales are only off 1.8% from pre-recession highs. So much for the theory that consumers are dead. Quite the contrary, they're back to where they were before the recession! That's amazing!

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 12:07 | 727596 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Stupid doo doo dumb.  I have a bridge you'll be sure to buy Harry

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 12:32 | 727676 gnomon
gnomon's picture

And unsustainable.

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 16:47 | 728316 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

You conveniently forgot to mention that the US ran approximately $2.7 Trillion in budget deficits over the past two fiscal years.  That's amazing!

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