Rice Is Next

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Mon, 01/31/2011 - 08:57 | 919750 papaswamp
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If rice gets out of control...riots all over those hot emerging markets. An unstable Chinese govt?...STRATFOR's 10 yr prediction of China downfall would be realized.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:27 | 919826 Dagny Taggart
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Do you know if STRATFOR's Friedman covers this in The Next Decade?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:03 | 919919 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

so whats a good etf for playing rice?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:18 | 919967 Dingleberry Jones
Dingleberry Jones's picture

Exactry. I second this.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:55 | 920398 Hephasteus
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Here's a good etp (Exchange Traded Poison) to NOT play this.

p { margin-bottom: 0.08in; }

The Scorpion's Sting -Lesath - upsilon Scorpius - A blue/white (B2 spectrum) third magnitude star. Shaula - lambda Scorpius - A blue/white (B2 spectrum) triple variable star, second order of magnitude.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:51 | 920101 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

The Friedman "dude" was pessimistic about China in the Next Decade. You might have seen the Stratfor-Video on Youtube. I can't remember everything now and cannot access my excerpts. But let me say this - he also made some quite ridiculous predictions in his book. Strong Poland? Strong Mexico? I don't see that coming. He was very pessimistic about the emerging markets and Russia. I don't share his opinion on Russia. Poland will get stronger, but not that strong. Turkey - I don't know. As it seems they have also a large housing bubble going.

I am also more pessimistic about the outlook on the USA (but then again; I am pessimistic about nearly everything). As a German I would be happy if he was right. To be honest, I don't want a strong China. I want a strong USA. Having said that, a crashing China would hurt our econonmy very bad.

I would recommend you to read Krepinevichs "7 deadly Scenarios". Especially his scenario about Pakistan is quite frightening.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:05 | 919751 Turd Ferguson
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Didn't Jimmy Rogers also peg rice as the big idea for 2011?

Maybe this is the answer?


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:19 | 919802 French Frog
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up 2.8% already today

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:50 | 920377 bruinjoe93
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Jim's investment plays for 2011 are rice and silver. I bet Jim is buying silver right now.



Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:00 | 919757 MiningJunkie
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Just buy ANYTHING denominated in FRN's because before the Barnank is through, the FED balance sheet will look paltry against the ocean of newly-printed currency. Reflate or die.

And just buy the fucking dip...

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:04 | 919766 Leo Kolivakis
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Ask yourselves who benefits from this ''creative destruction''?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:08 | 919773 Hephasteus
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Leo's glad to see you asking the right questions.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:08 | 919775 Orly
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Seems to me that the usual suspects are sweating bullets and calling out the big guns.  Guess we'll see about 1030 this morning...

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:05 | 919767 ColonelCooper
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Bio Fuels Bitchez!!


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:07 | 919772 cossack55
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"Let them eat rice cake" Bitchez.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:55 | 920704 Mariposa de Oro
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Let them eat Hope-N-Change!

(I sure hope we can eat it)


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:41 | 919864 savagegoose
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Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:06 | 919769 Sutton
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Like the man at the resturant says, "Flied Lice".

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:11 | 919770 whatz that smell
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very bullish technical pattern:

1) bullish impulse- july to nov.

2) followed by a bullish contracting triangle- nov. to mid jan.

3) upward thrust during a bullish time frame.

break-out imminent... yummy!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:14 | 919789 Snidley Whipsnae
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Indonesian population ~ 238 million souls according to Wiki.

Egyptian pop ~ 80 million

They will not starve quietly while Ben exports inflation to their shores.

Cornholeathol = starvation for many

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:15 | 919790 stoneman sacked
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Financial Genocide.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:15 | 919791 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

trouble surely for India......Now i need to stock up those Basmati rice Big packs which are on discount offer....

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:19 | 919803 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

rice will be boiling very soon

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:07 | 920458 Orly
Orly's picture

It doesn't matter.  The laws of physics cease to exist on Bernanke's stove.


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:25 | 919822 Oh regional Indian
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When the meat-train goes ape-shit in the west (it is bound to, out of control industry), and their own internal grain needs skyrocket, that will the tipping point for food.

Rice has been one of the craziest gainers (in price terms) in India in the past 2 years. On a tear at the retail level. And Indian government stock godowns are full of mostly rotten food-stock. Imagine when India's billion see un-affordability... Sad because it is engineered. All good because it is cyclical, our self-fulfilled wipe-out that is.



Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:33 | 919844 ak_khanna
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The only thing driving up commodity prices worldwide are speculators armed with cheap money provided by central bankers and super fast computers. This is causing a havoc in the lives of rest of the population and pushing them towards poverty as they can no longer afford the basic necessities of life.

Regulators are either hand in glove with the banksters or are too slow to react and take ages to identify and take measures to solve the problems.

Total ban on speculation and the reinforcement of Glass Steagall Act is strictly required to bring relief to the man on the street.


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:34 | 919846 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 13:37 | 920880 Clycntct
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Tough crowd in here this AM.

Should have added Ha Ha junk me.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:46 | 919886 Life of Illusion
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Monsanto will push GMO rice to non user countries.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 09:48 | 919892 herman55
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I copied and pasted the following post at least 200 times in the last 3 weeks. Pay attention to the language on Egypt. Nothing will trigger social upheaval like food price increases in the 3rd world.


There is no, repeat no, food shortage on the planet today. Sort of… Using the United Nations suggested daily calorie intake there is more than sufficient foodstuffs produced annually, globally. Period. Now then, the question is how you use them....for example, if you wanted to bring the daily calorie level in both China and India up to the U.N. level it would take an additional, not total but additional, 31 million tons of foodstuffs. To put that in perspective the U. S. ethanol fraud consumed 165 million tons of corn during 2010. China has 2.3 trillion dollars in Treasuries but chooses not to expend it on foodstuffs for its own population. India was a net exporter of wheat in 2010.....I had the opportunity to have dinner with the Chairman of one of the largest commodity/food processors in the world over the holidays....there is no food shortage...and the American ethanol scam has absolutely destroyed relationships with food importers from the U.S. , like Egypt for example, that took decades to develop....and now for some Physics: if ethanol were in fact a "sum positive" they would use ethanol as the energy source to produce (boil/distill) more ethanol/corn mash.....and they, the ethanol producers, don't......because it consumes more energy to make a gallon than you get out of it (referred to as the “thermal load factor”)....It’s nothing like an oil refinery that uses part of the barrel of crude oil to power the refinery.

Just think- 40% of the American corn crop now goes for the 10% gasoline EPA mandated blend rate yet the EPA is pushing to raise the blend rate to 15%--or 60% of Americas corn crop. As an aside 80% of the canola crop, a premium cooking oil, is used for bio-fuels in  Germany. Double the price of corn and bull doze another million acres of Amazon jungle to plant; triple the price of tortillas and watch the Mexicans pour north across the border. Noted: Chuck Grasley, the erstwhile Republican Senator, is the mouthpiece for the ethanol scam. He farms 4,120 acres of Iowa corn ground. My source tells me that without the ethanol scam (and it was renewed for only 1 year…) the price of wheat goes to 4$ and corn to $3.35.


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:38 | 920312 StychoKiller
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Like EVERY market distortion I've ever heard about, this one too can be blamed on Govt interference in the market(s)!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:19 | 920520 NorthenSoul
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Let's try this:

EVERY market distortion one shall ever hear about, can be blamed on either Govt interference in the market(s), or the existence of a monopoly/Cartel, be it private or public.

This way, we cover all known cases, and avoid the rank political propaganda.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:46 | 920661 weinerdog43
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Much better.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 21:14 | 920538 Flyingtrader
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You Sir, have spoken truth. 

Unfortunately the spectre of (hyper)inflation (as implied by price of gold, according to some) will keep people on this board from doing any critical thinking on the supply/demand front.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:00 | 919912 Matt
Matt's picture

If inflation via devaluation of the USD is the/a major cause of dramatic food price increases, it seems to me the emerging markets have two options to avoid food riots:

option a) de-peg their currency from the USD / stop manipulating their currency lower, so the price in their own currencies doesn't climb as dramatically


option b) go back to buying US treasuries, to try to push USD higher to reduce the increase in the price of food in USD.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:13 | 919948 topcallingtroll
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I live in a big rice producing state. Nobody eats it here because that is third world commie food. Gentlemen prefer wheat. A rise in rice prices would be ok for us. Put the screws to china and make them depeg.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:19 | 920526 hardcleareye
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TCT, your insight into what "gentlemen" prefer and mine are somewhat what odds..... 

That being said, while I concur it might provide some encouragement for China to depeg, it would also result in much global collateral damage and volitility... this may not be in the best interest of the US.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 13:16 | 920796 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Gee, I never knew that rice vs. wheat was a social class decision. /sarc

Your sweeping generalization has been duly noted... and ignored.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:15 | 919956 topcallingtroll
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Wow! China is buying rice and gold swaptions? New goldman market?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:39 | 920039 cbtrice
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There are no etf's in rice because inspite of it being the largest crop in the world it is one of the smallest traded commodities. The only transparent (if you can call it that) is the CME Rough Rice contract.  mpw

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:32 | 920282 Flyingtrader
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Where is the lack of transparency in the CME rice contract?  What is your basis for this suggestion?  Have you ever traded it?


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:55 | 920403 bruinjoe93
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The CME is corrupt.  If they let JP Morgan and the bullion banks manipulate silver what is stopping them from manipulating other markets?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 13:07 | 920484 Flyingtrader
Flyingtrader's picture

You'll have to do better than hearsay.  Silver is a legacy COMEX product that was inherited from the merger.  If the problem of silver manipulation is as endemic as most everyone here believes then you must see that the problems lay in the COMEX contract long before it was a CME product.  In the case of rice (another legacy contract, this time from the CBOT), it is and has been a very well understood and actively traded contract.  I have traded it on many occasions and have even taken delivery several times.  I have never witnessed this " lack of transparency" intimated by cbtrice. 

Furthermore,  to what end would this be manipulated?  How? If you find yourself having to do mental gymnastics to accomdate a conspiracy theory that in turn justifies your feelings of angry impotence towards your place in the food chain, maybe there isn't a conspiracy?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:21 | 920535 cbtrice
cbtrice's picture

for the last 20 years (hint look at the name). there is some mickey mouse with the open interest now and again as some firms hide their presence and size and the cftc cot doesn't always reflect the right designation.  

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 20:42 | 920749 Flyingtrader
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So what?  This has always been true of almost every contract on the floor.  Sneak houses have been an institution at exchanges for as long as there have been exchanges.  It surprises me to learn how many traders really care about the COT report.  Perhaps it is just my thinking, but what ADM and Riceland do with their money doesn't really impact the true S/D.  Most everyone I know keeps balance sheets, tracks weather and follow the export sales #'s.  Stocks in deliverable positions are published freely by the exchange and the spread trade is a great guide to the mechanics of storage capacity and the demand thereof.


Though you did not imply anything beyond a lack of transparency, others here are quick to scream fraud and manipulation and it is getting tiresome.  Not everything is a conspiracy and not all speculators are crooks.   It may not have been your intention but I submit to you that unqualified implications of a "lack of transparency" does nothing but arm the ignorant with more bad information.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:45 | 920066 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Mauritania!  Come on down!... you're the next contestant on The Price Is Rice!!

I didn't realize until today that Tyler Durden is actually Drew Carey.  You can always tell the smart ones by their glasses.


Dave Harrison


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:46 | 920068 thefatasswilly
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rice, lol. this will be good.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:10 | 920170 texas goldfinger
texas goldfinger's picture

The market looks set for a big gap up this morning, something close to the first limit.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:11 | 920175 LehmanRefugee
LehmanRefugee's picture

I agree with the overall call but I think you might be early on the timing here. The US is expected to have a a bumper yield this year despite lower acerage "up almost 11 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record" (report below). This largely made up for the declines elsewhere in the world. But the point remains, any small disruption to supply will have an outsized impact. 



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