Richard Koo Calls For, Surprise, More Reconstruction Stimulus To Prevent Japan's Natural Disaster From Becoming A Man-Made Calamity

Tyler Durden's picture

Richard Koo is back with his latest piece titled, not surprisingly, that "Fiscal Consolidation is Not the Answer" - alas, a decimated by (previously secret) debt European continent, and even America, is rapidly starting to disagree with this assessment, which stems from the faulty assumption that the economic "balance" achieved after 30 years of endless balance sheet expansion courtesy of ever declining interest rates is sustainable. Hint: it isn't. And until the world realizes that it is precisely this Fiscal Consolidation that is the answer, we will continue seeing bankers sell bits and pieces of Greece to each other, transfer payments in the US from the government ending up straight in Wall Street pockets, and broadly the Big getting Ever Bigger to Fail. Yet for those who still believe (Krugman) that one last hit is all it takes and after that it will be better, here is Koo's summary, on why Japan, which we continue to believe is the key macroeconomic variable over the near term, may be in very deep trouble unless it commences yet another (what number is that, #20, #50, is anyone even keeping score?) round of fiscal or monetary stimulus: "Fortunately for the Kan administration, Japanese institutional investors have been dealing with this surplus of private savings on a daily basis for more than 15 years and understand its macroeconomic implications. It is only because of their calm and calculated response to these conditions that the yield on 10-year JGBs remains at 1.2%. To prevent this natural disaster from becoming a man-made calamity (ie a recession), the government needs to push ahead with reconstruction efforts. With private savings surging, the necessary funds can be borrowed for now. Later, once businesses and households start looking to the future, funding can and should be shifted to tax hikes and budget reshuffles." That is the conventional wisdom. For all those who wish to read what will happen if and when Japan continues on this unsustainable path of converting private savings into public funding without regard for demographics, please read Dylan Grice (here, here and here).

KOO 011-05-31 Nomura Richard Koo Fiscal Consolidation Not the Answer

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camaro68ss's picture

they should just print 1,000,000,000,000 to the 1,000,000,000,000 POWER. That should cover the hole world and make everything better

jus_lite_reading's picture

You took the words straight outta my mouth..... print bitches print! I want my gold to go to $9,990,000/oz.

plocequ1's picture

More gobbley goop. BTFD or buy the top. Its all good.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

At least this old message has been upgraded to .mp3 from the old 33 RPM vinyl.

Miles Kendig's picture

You lucky dog!!!  My record came as one of those mailable, flimsy, wanna be a record deals.

And ya, Koo will never be ale to wrap his head around flac as the whole concept of loss or lossless is alien to him in any context beyond the riskless risk of sovereign debt.  (Which is why we keep hearing of the need for more injectables from Richard)

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We've already established that they are whores. Now we just need to negotiate a price.

Do I hear two dollars? Now I need three.

??'s picture


and in Egypt the Arab Spring continues

Virginity tests: Misogyny and intimidation in Egypt

Miles Kendig's picture

Richard Koo is simply awesome.  Every time I read what is ostensibly his work I gain a fuller appreciation that my choice of early start was the right choice.

John Law Lives's picture

This fool says that we are on the verge of a "great, great depression" but that investors shouldn't sell stocks...

Brilliant advice...


Dirtt's picture

Not really.  He goes on to threaten people not to short stocks. Goes beyond advice.

John Law Lives's picture

I was being sarcastic re. his brilliant advice.  Unless there is QE3, I think the stock market will fester.      

curbyourrisk's picture

pdf please.


scribd is blocked at work


HpDeskjet's picture

Funny to see that even guys like Richard Koo loose every bit of objectivity/rationality when working for an investment bank.


As Churchill said: "America always does the right thing, after they have tried everything else..."


The only solution is cut spending/entitlements/medicare/etc. And in that case no QE is necessary anymore

epwpixieq-1's picture

An ORACLE would argue that even NATURE is trying to help us go in the right way, to rebalance, and some highly ranked people with insane stupidity, not seeing THE REAL PICTURE, do not allow it.

Just allow them to get some nice douse of gamma particles and put them where they belong, to the dead part of the human history.

Hedgetard55's picture

Koo = fucking moron.

HpDeskjet's picture

True (or at least he pretends to be)

In my view, the fiscal policies being pursued by the developed nations of the West pose a far greater risk to the global economy.This is because governments are starting to deleverage (via fiscal consolidation) at a time of continued private-sector deleveraging—the chief cause of the ongoing recession

Deleveraging is not the CAUSE, it is the inevitable RESULT of (and solution for) piling on way too much debt for decades...

Assetman's picture

1. Inject reconstruction stimulus.

2. Watch economy grow for 12 months.

3. Watch economy stall after stimulation efforts (transfer payments) fall short.

4. Create man made "natural" disaster; warn readers of the next "great great" depression.

5. Repeat Steps 1 thru 4.


Yep.  It appears that Richard Koo has a job for life.

gwar5's picture

It's still hard to believe how Japan got so wiped out. The Tsunami was the most awesome destructive force thing I've ever seen on video. But on top of that, to have a nuclear meltdown with never ending radiation leakage --- makes it totally surreal.

Pat Hand's picture

That is the conventional wisdom

Koo is way far from conventional wisdom.  He's the other direction from you, but unfortunately for the anti-whatever sounds like "keynesian" because that means something bad crowd, he's actually right.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

can we find some way to make "fiscal consolidation" inflationary?

...right after cold fusion, perhaps... 


Caviar Emptor's picture

THis is why I said in 2008 that Japan is the best case scenario for the US: at least they had savings, foreign assets and global-scale profitable businesses packaged inside a (relatively) small country. 

equity_momo's picture

Richard Koo , an economist at Nomura. Seriously .....

 id sooner listen to my dry cleaning lady for pointers as to where the economy is going.  more wasted timber and electricity producing this shyte.

Element's picture

Why is it moneterists continually fail to realize that they actually need to 'back' their debt-money 'solution' to any problem with the 'real-resources' meme they espouse?


Otherwise all you have is a con-job currency.