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Richard Koo's April 2010 Update: "What Post 2008 US, Europe And China Can Learn From Japan 1990-2005"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A few days ago we highlighted Richard Koo's most recent media appearance here. Below we provide his most recent presentation extolling the virtues of unbridled Keynesianism. Keynes' ideas may have been an operable theory when the world was not leveraged 100% debt/GDP (and 400% total debt including assorted off balance sheet items). Now, it is not. And everyone who blindly pushes for endless stimuli will find out that the endplay to Keynes' fatally flawed economic theory is sovereign default. And yes, that certainly includes the default of the country which is pring the most paper.

 

 

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Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:03 | 300142 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Let it burn.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:20 | 300168 Mako
Mako's picture

Humans haven't learned basic Math in a thousand years I seriously doubt they are going to learn from a report which doesn't even point out the problem. 

The only lesson that can be learned is if you use the equation you will eventually collapse into a heap of a mess, depending on how big the mess is, million or even billions will be liquidated.

 

 

 

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:21 | 300174 yabs
yabs's picture

how much more evidence do these idiots need that Keynes was
retarded?
two lost decades in japan and they say oh, they dodn't try hard enough they should have printed more , sooner
1920 saw severe deflation and without interfernence from the FEd it ended after two years
With keynes you get two lost decades and then default
way to go keynes, You retard

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 13:04 | 300244 halcyon
halcyon's picture

When you've written a treatise about probability theory, made a few million on the markets and analyzed PPE a few decades, you can come back and make that accusation again.

 

Till then, you're only making a fool out of yourself by showing you have not even read Keynes.

 

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 15:51 | 300539 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>When you've written a treatise about probability theory

The task of a mathematician.

>made a few million on the markets

The task of an entrepeneur.

>and analyzed PPE a few decades

The task of a historian.

These activities do not advance economic science.

 

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 17:07 | 300765 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Writing a treatise about probability theory is easy to do.  Koo knows this.  His problem, and the problem with most people attempting it, is writing one that is actually provable in the real world.  Japan is the test subject for his theory and it only proves his failure.  Now he wants to tweak it and redefine it to fit his theory.  He also blames the micro economy, individuals and companies for not playing along.  How valid is his theory if it does not account for the macro and the micro-economies?

That he has made a name for himself and profited handsomely from that does not prove his theories correct any more than Al Gore's largess from climate change/global warming  proves that it exists.

 

Thu, 04/15/2010 - 11:21 | 302070 Auroch
Auroch's picture

Um. I thought that's how science works - you produce a theory, see where it doesn't fit reality, tweak the theory, try again.

Science, eh?

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:22 | 300175 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

“In the long run, we're all dead.” - J. M. Keynes

Translation:

"Screw future generations; let the debt keep piling up."

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:56 | 300234 LongGold
LongGold's picture

+ 1000

 

 

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:27 | 300185 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

Now he's just getting all philosophical with that ying and yang shit.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:31 | 300191 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

The whole 'fund debt with more debt' pyramid only works until there are widespread real shortages in critical commodities (food, oil, etc.).  Then everybody will find out what all the paper's actually worth.  Right now its still just fun-and-games.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:42 | 300212 laughing_swordfish
laughing_swordfish's picture

+ 1

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 16:47 | 300707 Gussiefink-nottle
Gussiefink-nottle's picture

Put 10 hungry men in a room with 11 plates of food, then the last plate can be flipped any way you like. Put 10 hungry men in a room with 9 plates of food and you will discover real value.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:40 | 300210 ExistentialSkeptic
ExistentialSkeptic's picture

The Rothchilds etc. have managed to extend and pretend this irretrievable scenario for decades now.  What are the chances that there is some other wild hair idea out there that they can use to keep the party going another decade or so?

In other words, is it really panic time?

That's what I'd like to know.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 12:58 | 300239 yabs
yabs's picture

skeptic
I can tell you exactly what that scam is
its the cap and trade, carbon derivatives game thats what
they hope will keep it going

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 13:15 | 300256 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Yep, it's like a VAT on the freaking world. And TPTB have the nerve to say a carbon tax is noble, and that money will be redistributed from the rich to the poor, when all they are concerned with is getting their cut. Parasites, the lot of them.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 13:49 | 300311 Thisson
Thisson's picture

I suspect that the scam is to blow a new "health care" bubble because cap & trade seems to have been derailed for now.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 17:12 | 300779 Mrmojorisin515
Mrmojorisin515's picture

Wait, when did the health care bubble burst?  Hell i thought the nationalization of health care was to continue the already existing bubble, and do not forget the college bubble, i mean what would those prof's do if students couldn't get the loans, too many bubble to little time to detail them all to you

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 13:08 | 300252 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Do keynsians own more than one pair of underwear? And if so, do they wear them all at the same time to make sure they have full employment of all their resources? This guy seems like he owns one and rides it dirty on some days.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 15:33 | 300577 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

A clean pair of underwear is being under-utilized. In this case, one should use a loose digestive policy to unload a little stimulus. But beware, if a massive stimulus is accidentally released, one may enter the feared liquidity trap, which is a hard situation to clean up. A study of historical underwear employment is really necessary for one to be able judge correctly and release the right amount of stimulus.

 

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 13:12 | 300254 cognitis
cognitis's picture

Japan and US participate together in the world's resources, but they both do so as different functions. Japan as primary creditor nation and creator of the best technology--including tech for arms---functions as the world's commander in chief, while the US as the world's primary consumer and debtor nation and primary police state functions as the commander's adjutant; thus Japan exports capital and high tech goods and arms components while US exports raw materials and imports debt and high tech goods, Japan uses import routes while US protects and maintains them often at expense of US' own infrastructure, Japanese citizens all enjoy universal access to basic human requirements like health care food housing while Americans only universally receive the same in the military. Japan and US have in common the world's resources and financial system, but both play very different roles.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 13:22 | 300266 Thisson
Thisson's picture

Politicians espousing Keynes only emphasizes the Government's spending role during bad times.  They always conveniently overlook the fact that Government is supposed to save during the good times. 

 

We are living out the parable of the grasshopper and the ant.  One can only hope that in the real life version, the Grasshopper doesn't just eat the ant and then consume his provisions, which is what seems to be happening.

 

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 13:36 | 300292 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

If I have to read one more comparison to Japan I'll punch something. We are not Japan. We're way worse. The only reason why Japan still exists today is because they were net savers and exporters. The exact opposite of the US.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 14:11 | 300357 yabs
yabs's picture

halycon
are you a keynesian apologist
that should be a crime alomg with genocide

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 20:52 | 301140 Hulk
Hulk's picture

What we are doing really shouldn't be called keynesian. Keynes called for socking away money in good times and stimulating during bad, with that socked away money. Not what we are doing at all.....

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 14:59 | 300483 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Koo presents some historical data, but no explanation as to why it should be relevant for the present era. The market is ever-changing, while the theorems of economic science are unchanging. For insight, Koo should look to economic science, and not play with stale charts.

Koo presents on slide 26 the faulty idea that monetary policy is what can make the private sector healthy. Apparently the market and its innumerable participants are capable of deciding the price of potatos, but settling the price of loanable funds is something only exalted mortals like Koo should do. There is no explanation for why Koo's intervention must fix the price of only certain kinds of economic goods and not others.

On slide 27 he disparages savings as a "vice". Scientifically, it's his subjective judgement with no objective value. It is up to each person to decide for themselves what the appropriate size of their cash holdings is.

 

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 15:34 | 300575 Mont Bleu
Mont Bleu's picture

Someone enligthen me, because I don't see what is wrong with Koo's argument p.8 of the presentation (last few minutes of the video)

http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-koo-recession-2010-4#-8

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 16:50 | 300712 yabs
yabs's picture

savings a vice?

thats right out of keynesian BS

anyone who follows Keynes is a criminal plain and simple

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