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Risk Off: Commodity Complex Jumps On Reports Libyan Oil Wells Near Benghazi On Fire

Tyler Durden's picture


In a not so surprising turn of events, adverse Libyan newsflow has picked up just as expected, with Reuters reporting that the Oil facility at Zueitina, south of Benghazi, is now damaged and oil wells are now on fire, and that a Libyan rebel convoy is now headed to Ras Lanuf according to Al Jazeera even as fighting in Tripoli picks up, although as we noted previously don't expect any coverage as all the journalists there are now rounded up "for their safety from Al Qaeda" and the terrorist organizations crazy pills. The result: WTI now passing $103, wiping out more tens of billions from the US GDP, further destroying corporate margins, and otherwise adding fuel to today's vapormeltup. Gold and silver follow suit.






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Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:47 | 1018358 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Silver well over $35.  Chart not showing for me.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:49 | 1018366 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Get monie!  Buy silver!  Snitchez!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:46 | 1018677 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Thanks chairsatan, you are the best thing to ever happen to gold and silver bugs. We love you because we know that you will continue mucking it up and nothing will ever be fixed. Again, thanks chairsatan for being the putz that you are.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:57 | 1018381 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

35.21 and trending up at the moment.

EDIT: Oops ... 35.17 now ... looks like I hit the top ...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:57 | 1018745 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

ratio also broke through heavy 41 ish resistance. interesting......

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:03 | 1019108 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yes I was looking at that earlier this week.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:53 | 1018383 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

silver ripping - who junked u?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 17:29 | 1020397 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL shorts are angry

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:48 | 1018359 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

King dollar!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:50 | 1018373 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Exactly what I was thinking.  What in the world would have to burn for the dollar to catch a bid?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:55 | 1018387 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

The Fed?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:59 | 1018431 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The Fed will buy Dollars... with freshly printed Dollars?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:56 | 1018401 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

>> What in the world would have to burn for the dollar to catch a bid?

Beijing, Shanghai, Goungzhou, Taipei, Hong Kong, Macau ....

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:00 | 1018426 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

No worries. They're gonna raise rates any day least, they keep saying they are.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:59 | 1018750 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Major American austerity. Then we would have anarchy, no?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:49 | 1019040 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Yes.  That is yet another reason why there will be no "Japan Scenario" for the U.S.  Too many in the dependency class.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:02 | 1019396 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nice avatar, dixie.  hi.  you query: What in the world would have to burn for the dollar to catch a bid?

A:  The National "Debt"

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:16 | 1019473 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

here's everybody's fave conspiracy theorist {the "World's Greatest" imo} on WHY "WE" must  burn the banksterz' fuking assets to the ground:

The Goldsmiths, Part CLXXXIII

and, WE will get the job done!!!

trust me.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:48 | 1018365 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

200 dollar oil here we come.  Thank god(obama) everyone is finding jobs again.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:48 | 1018367 Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

We don't need no water...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:50 | 1018370 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

I will put my bet on oil reach $130 within the next couple weeks.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:49 | 1018375 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Glad I took that mileage re-imbursement check yesterday afternoon and BTFD in silver.


This has been insane for awhile, but the rate at which the elite are losing control is really starting to accelerate.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:51 | 1018376 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

What will happen to the 95% of the population who do not realise they are being lied to on a daily basis, once the realisation that they are being lied to sets in?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:54 | 1018386 samsara
samsara's picture


What will happen to the 95% of the population....

Snatching Tiger Cubs and Cherished Delusions

The above short little narrative gives the clues.  

Get out of the way,  I would say.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:55 | 1018392 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Egypt Part II

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:57 | 1018404 Cookie
Cookie's picture

That could take several generations

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:58 | 1018417 falardea
falardea's picture

Uh, duh.... Egypt, Tunisia, et. al.


Except they'll bring in the Canadians to quell the 'domestic terrorists'.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:26 | 1018555 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The Canadians brave enough to come will find themselves facing a rather large group of mangy mutts with .45ACP fangs!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:52 | 1018377 99er
Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:06 | 1019419 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

fingers crossed you're right... i've skin in the game and it's itching

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:53 | 1018380 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Just BTFD - Long live Zimbabwe!

Tinka Resources at $.45 silver in Peru last at $.445...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:52 | 1018382 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

This just in. Hugo Chavez has organized the first flotilla fire brigade. Captain Chavez and his crew have just crossed the Tropic of Cancer and are full speed ahead.  

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:54 | 1018384 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

An angry and disgruntled deflationist is junking every post. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:54 | 1018389 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

disgruntled yes but I don't think Rosie is angry, just sad and a bit of a broken man

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:56 | 1018408 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Deflationists underestimated the folly and genocidal madness of governments and central banks. In fact, they thought the crisis was not so grave after all, and that the politico-banking cartel was going to accept impairments. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:06 | 1018455 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

TGP, said deflationist is against the same wind the inflationists are.

Oil at 120 or over should be severely deflationary.

Money printing at whatever stratospherical rate should be severely inflationary.

But this is end game time and if you are on the leash, a yank-about (Ha!) is baked in.

This is just the beginning. 

Of the end I mean.


Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:11 | 1018466 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Of course, we will have biflation (inflation in the vital sectors such as food and oil, deflation in the rest, until the point hyperinflation starts to scramble everything in nominal if the CBs continue to print). I was referring to the hardcore deflationists. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:22 | 1018539 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Even the "hardcore" deflationists sputter when hard pressed about what happens in a deflationary cycle to our ability to service our debt and, therefore, the ultimate faith in the currency...  either way, the dollar is toast.  The only disagreement lies in how we get there...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:29 | 1018581 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Indeed. Somehow, biflation always reads like a dirty word to me.


Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:18 | 1018859 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Former FED governor Lawrence Meyer , was on CNBC "The Call" and told Larry Krudblow that there would be no deflation, don't even talk about it, and don't worry about it.........

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:21 | 1018526 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

haha, yes, well, somebody has to do it...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:32 | 1019520 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

i'm a "hardcore deflationist" but i sure ain't "angry and disgruntled". Quite the opposite, more cock sure of deflation by the week!

You euphoric (a nice word for insane) inflationists need to understand 2 simple points;

i. Leveraged Credit (by retail bwankers) far outweighs and out guns Benny the Beans midget printing press. The Feds money doesn't amount to a hill of Benny Beans compared to the over-leveraged mountains of debt the retail banks have out there in the economy  

ii. the problem is DEBT or to put a finer point on it, unserviceable debt. You've seen what happens to unserviceable debt in the US property market. You're seeing it in the Muni and US States market. Both these are powerful deflationary forces sucking money (credit/debt) out of the economy

When the debt mountain implodes (see US property and local US Govt or European Govts) there is nothing and nobody that can do anything about it. It's 'Game Over' unless you can kick the can a bit further down the road.

Remember Benny the Bean jawboning about holding up the property bubble and supporting the mortgage market buying MBS's. How's he done? Fuking crap. How has the ECB's Trichet done with Ireland, Greece etc to "stop contagion"? More fuking crap.

Benny the Bean and Trichet the Twat has been printing for all the poor sods are worth and have zero effect on imploding property values or propping up bankrupt Govts. Midget Ben is too short and too small to support US property. Trichet is too puny and too stupid to stop contagion or do anything than hold of the 'End of Days' for a couple of years. 

So let's recap Gentlemen. The problem is debt. The debt outweighs and outguns Bennies and Trickeys printing machines.

This last gasp from the inflationary bull is going to get slaughtered and torn to shreds by the far bigger, harder and heavier deflationary bear. This will shortly be a 'No Contest' ...give it 6-12 months and all your inflationary bulls will be running for cover and nowhere to be seen  

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 16:23 | 1020043 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

All these facts are known by inflationists, except that there is a physical limit to the amount of money that can be destroyed by defaults, and no physical limit to the amount of money that can be created by an electronic printing press. 

If the FED allowed real estate to deflate, it was to concentrate on reinflating equities, which are far more important to the economic "recovery". 

Besides, if deflation really takes hold, it will cause the restructuring of the US government debt, and the dollar will be ripped to shreds. Too. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:56 | 1018395 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

we need a quote from the fed economist who wrote the paper saying that rising oil was gdp stimulative.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:19 | 1018872 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Greenie said this morning on squawk box that higher oil prices are problematic.........well duh???

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:55 | 1018399 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Gold and silver surging. We're now below the November 2010 close on the Dollar Index, the near-term low. Next stop: 75.6, the intraday low. After that: the abyssssss........

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:59 | 1018420 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture


I think the dollar could handle going all the way down to 70 without anyone making any fuss over it. But if it goes below the $70 threshold, expect the news to be all over it.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:09 | 1018465 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Lol. You're being naive

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:15 | 1018501 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture


But I am also basing my view on 2008 when the dollar dropped to $73. I think there are certain numbers that just have a much stronger impact.

Gold @ 1500

Silver @ 50

Dollar @ 69

Oil @ 150


Those numbers are the impact numbers in which things start to get crazy.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:25 | 1018546 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The 2008 low came before $14 trillion in extra US liquidity, let alone global liquidity. So teh impact will get magnified. By what factor? Anyone's guess. Lots, I'm afraid. Try oil$250

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:19 | 1018878 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Turd was right..........

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:56 | 1018403 Quintus
Quintus's picture

But I checked with the S&P yesterday and from that it was clear everything was now resolved in the Middle East and all was sweetness and light.  Surely you're not telling me that this was all a big fat POMO driven lie?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:05 | 1018422 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

After such a promising dream of an idea... who would have thought America was going to end this way, destroyed from the inside by a handful of people in key positions of 'power' (who as a majority seem to be of Jewish decent, a strange mathematical/probability anomoly that given the demographics of the U.S., nothing to worry am i'm sure, no agenda there, and you'd be a idiot and fool to think there was).

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:50 | 1019048 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Mr Duff is a interesting man. Not sure what to think of him. Frankly at this point, I think he is a disinfo sayanim agent. He shows up one day a few years ago and now waxes on all things about the Israeli problem. Hmmm.  Nobody is sure what he is really all about. Duff is just another "helpful" jewish guy that showed up a while back and suddenly is trying to "help" us.  One thing is for sure. People must know their facts at all times and do not ever take anyone else's opinions on anything.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:17 | 1019480 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Everyone's got to "show up" sometime.

I agree with you on getting the facts. If you're interested in learning more facts about Zionism I highly recommend "The Founding Myths of Israel" by Roger Garaudy.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:05 | 1018447 pendragon
pendragon's picture

where is the risk off...equities not budging. aussie 50pips off lows?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:06 | 1018448 The Count
The Count's picture






Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:06 | 1018451 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

re: oil, calling for shorter term highs of 122 and correction 90.  if you want to see which sectors i would traffic in during oil rallies:

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:09 | 1018459 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

When the DXY falls below 74, I will quote The Max Schumacker

"Im beginning to get scared shitless, because all of a sudden it's closer to the end than the beginning, and death is suddenly a perceptible thing to me, with definable features."

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:19 | 1018513 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

i give it two weeks before you have to repost that quote

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:08 | 1018461 Scottj88
Scottj88's picture

Dollar Index in the shitter... watching 76.16 closely...

Can't believe commodities are not seen as inflation...

What do you expect I gues...



Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:15 | 1018495 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We're below the closing low of November 2010. That's the first warning bell.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:08 | 1018463 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Correct some spelling mistake: "Al Qaeda" must be "Al CIAda"

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:08 | 1018467 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Looks like that should be the last we see of "RED BARRON".

We might even get a few days of peace as all the trolls register new names.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:44 | 1019011 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture


+ 3 oz yesterday.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:14 | 1018493 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

I think we will be able to Buy Gold at around 1000 dollars level.:::


Gold correction to take it 1000 level

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:25 | 1018854 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I think pink unicorns are going to fly out of The Bernank's ass.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:06 | 1019132 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Hey Chief,

You're a couple of years too late. We'll never see $1000 again. But of course, short it all you want right here if you believe that kind of nonsense.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:19 | 1019196 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $1430

I think about the lowest gold could go would be around $1040, where India bought the nearly 200 tonnes.

The "India Put".

I doubt that we will see gold go anywhere near that low.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:14 | 1018494 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

The whole concept of risk has been gone for along time. Its an asymetrical outcome now , neither of which the stock market has a clue how to price - hyperinflation through currency collapse or deflation through debt defaults.  Probably get them both in the next 5 years.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:20 | 1018521 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Agree. 2 years worth of no-risk trading. Even sooner than hyperinflation/deflation events will come June, 2011: no more Bernanke put. THat's the first glimpse of the abyss

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:15 | 1018502 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Oops... what's up today?
Silver jumped +0.8$ @ 35.150
USD-CHF all time low -0.7$ @ 0.9223


Fiat burning? Fiat burning in the US!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:19 | 1018517 toto
toto's picture

Don't Be In Such A Hurry.It's just another dead cat bounce.

But with inverse gravity.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:20 | 1018519 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Methman and Smailes getting rich today.  $1,431 and $35.28

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:22 | 1018538 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

and how!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:02 | 1018775 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

I was banking on the market realizing today that Ag only costs "$5 to dig it out of the ground."

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:10 | 1018826 jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

When will the market realize that those Nike shoes that Phil Knight charges a $100+ for only cost a few $$ to make?  Perhaps, if producers stamped a swoosh on silver bars and coins the price would double?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:20 | 1018523 ledzep213
ledzep213's picture

Not so sure this is a purely risk-related trade given yesterday's Euro-denominated silver move and our recent trends:

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:20 | 1018524 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Sharia don't like it...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:29 | 1018569 The Count
The Count's picture

...rock the casbah.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:22 | 1018529 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Who knew silver had wings?

Fly silver, fly.....

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:23 | 1018543 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Unfuckingbelivable! Where is Blythe? Hey Monkey Brigade are you ok?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:27 | 1018568 The Count
The Count's picture

Who is this Blythe guy everybody always talks about? Just recently joined ZH so I am clueless...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:35 | 1018615 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Bylthe Masters, head of international commodities for JPM.  You can Google for more.  JPM is massively short silver.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:39 | 1018628 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Oops, you should start searching about all this.

Little (not so) actual teaser:

For starters:

Turd's minds:

Any contrarian view is also welcome as long as is no shill crap ;)

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:43 | 1018651 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> Just recently joined ZH so I am clueless...


Recently, like 42 weeks ago recently?  Ok, I'll give you clueless.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:49 | 1018696 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Spotted meanwhile

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:50 | 1018706 The Count
The Count's picture

...I'm a slow starter...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:50 | 1019054 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Actually she is a female but she does wear a strapon to work.....

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:32 | 1018588 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Maybe the Winkies got their feathers singed flying over Libya!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:41 | 1018647 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Well, I know another good place for these beasts... the Federal Reserve!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:28 | 1018570 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Countdown to new high in Gold ...........

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:31 | 1018584 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

What a day for the Pollyana bulls: 3 Fed members stating we don't need anymore QE after June, an underwhelming jobs report, surging oil with reports of constrained supplies, a crumping dollar, revolutions everywhere..........and Suddenly.........There's Risk!! OMG!!!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:51 | 1019063 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Better tell Tyler that the former assistance chair satan's are all saying that QE ends in June....

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:31 | 1018586 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:33 | 1018601 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Alright!  Seconal (or is it "Defeatra"?) FTW!!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:13 | 1018845 Watauga
Watauga's picture

The key to this whole thing will be Saudi Arabia.  If S.A. blows up, along the lines of Libya, all bets are off for everything--stocks, oil, gold, silver--no telling where any of it would end up.  If S.A. has a relatively benign transition, ala Egypt, it is possible that the impact of change would be much less dramatic.  If S.A. cools off, settles in, and rides it out without substantial change, then we will be about where we are today (assuming Libya does not settle out soon in a way that favors the West economically).

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:13 | 1019167 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

All I keep hearing is $4.00 gas for the Spring/Summer "driving season." Guess what? Ain't gonna be no driving season this Spring or Summer with gas at $4. The buck is burning a hole in the floor, the jobs report is BS from the BLS, but silver looks and tastes deeeeeelicious!

By May 15:

Brent: $135

WTI: $125

Gas: $4.12

Silver: $42

Gold: $1580

Your chance of getting a job if over 35: 0, as in ZERO, ZILCH, NADA.

Sayonara, baby, Buh-bye US Economy, China, Europe. Hello, global revolution.

And this one will be televised, on YouTube.

1967 was called the Summer of Love. 2011 will be called the Summer of Hate.

We hate eveything: government, taxes, TV, Wall Street, banks, SUVs, kids, grandparents, middle-aged baby boomers without a fucking clue, the CIA, food prices, oil, gas, Charlie Sheen and Lindsay Lohan (had to toss them in there), flash trades, brokerage accounts and especially, CNBC.

LUV yer Garden. Good place to bury your gold and silver.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:55 | 1019676 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Gas is already over $4 a gallon in northern California.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019203 freedmon
freedmon's picture

whoever was smacking down the PMs yesterday is seeing their work undone today.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:51 | 1019356 bigredmachine
bigredmachine's picture

there are jobs in China. If you people need something to do.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:19 | 1019483 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Bad, I'll give you but never zero for the exceptional.  A friend who's over 60 just got hired full time, as a graphic designer, for a international known dotcom.  

"middle aged baby boomers without a clue"  heheh  There are those without a clue in all age groups. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:51 | 1019658 bigredmachine
bigredmachine's picture

Dont worry, you will have another shot at glory once the boomers have passed

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 20:40 | 1028064 lsjcma
lsjcma's picture

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