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Risk-ES Divergence Back To Silly Levels
One glance at the RISK-ES basket confirms what everyone knows: regressed for a July 5 start, while the broader Risk basket has been moving roughly in line with ES, today we saw a major decoupling, which, if nothing else, indicates that stocks are once again on their own in the stratosphere, while all other risk signals indicate a far more subdued value. As a result, the spread has once again hit the notable 10 ES point equivalent divergence which more often than not ends up being compressed... eventually. Alas, since the Chairsatan can stay irrational far, far longer than any printer can print without running out of ink, at this point who the hell knows what is happening. But since this is bizarro world, it is probably a good thing that this, the 9th consecutive week of domestic equity fund outflows, saw "just" $3 billion pulled from massively margined mutual funds. This is a welcome drop from the $4.3 billion pulled last week. At this rate we may hit an inflow eventually, at which point the lunatic in charge of the asylum will once again crash it all.
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Hasn't the SPY decoupled from trading step for step with the EUR/USD too?
The SPY manipulation machine has been working overtime in the AH sessions for several days now. Since it's job is that of an equity puke bucket, its job is to be raised up...no matter what anything else is doing.
Due to this ETF manipulation, I do believe we have priced in 1 million jobs gained tomorrow morning.
F'n theatre of the absurd. It took eight weeks for the market to become over sold, and eight days for it to become equally overbought.
Nice markets.
Radical moves are a sign of stress not stability. See Max Q: http://www.aerospaceweb.org/question/aerodynamics/q0102b.shtml
Pure HFT and momo chasing...Skynet.
DavidC
I wish more people would write sites like this that are actually helpful to read. With all the fluff floating around on the web, it is rare to read a site like yours instead.
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It did on Tues and Wed. But they looked to back in sync today.
Indeed. EUR/USD seems bent on consolidating between $1.42 and $1.45 before a breakout to the your-guess-is-as-good-as-mine side.
They're Ba-ack!
Be scared. Be very very scared.
"They" have far too high an opinion of their manipulative talents. This shit will get biblical come fall, however, I doubt it will last that long. I give it a few weeks to at most a few months before the whole shithouse burns down.
The charts are look to be hitting strong resistance now, I bet the divergence doesn't close upward this time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQf-u2nCVSw
"At this rate we may hit an inflow eventually, at which point the lunatic in charge of the asylum will once again crash it all."
Where is Benny (patient E11638) today?
..in fact if it's a short better search for Lloyd 'LuLu' Blankfein (patient GS2008RIP)
Having just read the latest Martin Armostrong article ...
http://tinyurl.com/64prb44
..he writes the Hunt Brothers were not the real 80's Silver manipulators but the set-up chumps for the Big Brokers shorts... and he has a warning for Mr Paulson too on that score!
And then the penny dropped: Benny is going to be the fall guy, the dumpy chump that will historically take much of the flak for the shit-state we're in when he's just a front for the Big (Investment) Banks ...don't imagine for 1 second that'll save him from a seconds caustic criticism though!
Is there still time to get grandma in on some NFLX???
Most def... expect to see another 20% pop when they announce plans to roll out service in sub-Saharan Africa
hmmm, good point.
As your broker, I say bet grandmas Ernest Borgnine collection on NFLX. NFLX to da moon
NDX year low 2180.94 June 16th
July 7th, 14 sessions later, new year high 2418.99. 238.05 points and +11% gain in less than three weeks.
It all has the feel of the blow-off top; we're now back at levels that will incentivize millions of retirees to shift out of risk ("stocks," as they know them); my parents just moved everything they had out--and took penalites on the things they "couldn't move."
SPY priced in foreign currencies has now taken off like a scalded dog:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$spx:FXE,$spx:FXY,$spx:FXC,$spx:FXS,$spx:FXA,$spx:FXM,$spx:FXB,$spx:FXF|D
Yes, But these are 'silly' levels. My question is silly or haha silly?
readers here should also fear an announced deal on the debt ceiling sunday...can you imagine what this chart will look if OB and his incumbents agree on debt ceiling? We'll be above 1400 so fast the shorts won't know what hit them
The financial systems may stay solvent longer than the people will remain rational.
btw, was that a dip back in June?
Tempest in an espresso cup. SPOO can silly all it wants. It means nothing. System is terminal. System will no longer process. Dead system walking.
nice fat bull-trap, NFP should disappoint.
today was screwed up. with futures this high, it was a day to go short a few days at least for some profit taking. you never ramp up with futures open so high, you take the profits. this happened in almost all of my other trades. In fact I opened shorts on them. was really BS. I also blame hft algo's. and the 9 to 11:30 and the 2-3;30 crowd. anyone notice how the day is different at these times besides me.
you can almost time you trades by clock.
any takers on poorish NFP figures? Anyone...
Jan sayeth 125,000. What Jan sayeth, the market maketh.
Where do I find the "ES Basket" in Bloomberg?