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Risk Off - Futures And Euro Plunge
The market is getting ridiculous: a day after surging well over 1%, which in turn was preceeded by a day in which it plunged by 1%, will apparently be followed by yet another plunge in the broader market as the European selloff gathers steam and makes day traders and momo chasers cross-eyed following the high beta heatmaps. ES right now is preparing to take out yesterday's lows, as the EURUSD is trading at one year lows. But, but, US consumers are no longer making any contractual payments as this country plunges into payment anarchy, so it should take the market to 36k right? Wrong. With the next support for the EURUSD at 1.28, as things are now really getting serious over the atlantic, absent a complete decoupling in US stocks (from reality), we may be on the verge of a major correction.
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EURUSD:
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today could be a bloodbath.
Money moves in tidal forces. Even a tsunami eventually recedes.
My trading algorithms are all pointing down today. It went short using TZA and EUO last night and added FAZ, SKF, and FXP in the first hour of trading tonight. And -- hey, look! Big nose-dive in the S&P again just as I write this.
So, yeah. I agree that a bloodbath is entirely possible.
If you recall, right before the bloodbath of Q3 and Q4 of 2008, the same market up and down moves of size were occuring as volatility went nuts.
Let the bleeding begin.
Nice open...
A fresh change of panties for the CNBS crowd, including the so-called males.
+1
No bloodbath today. We'll open lower and the dip buyers will jump in quickly. Data comes out at 10 and that will be the catalyst to move the market sharply off lows.
Bears get sucked into negative futures with glee only to get hauled off in a trap each time. Same scenario today. Nothing is different from yesterday when we had very strong economic data and even more corporate reports today showing strength.
I agree with you and Bob Pisani that even if the EMU collapsed, it would play second fiddle to Ann Taylor's earnings report.
yeah we all know how the crap at Ann Taylor drives markets.
yeah, yippee...they went from selling nothing or less than nothing to sell three outfits -- increase of a 1000%!!!! Buy the dip. And load up on Ann Taylor while it's up big since you won't get another chance -- right Harry?
Harry buys Ann Taylor, that's good enough for me.
All your base...
I don't think so. The really tight uptrend channel's broken, momentum for the moment is to the downside, and the rallies in between are bull-traps.
You know it's funny but when the market broke lower at 3am this morning, I was thinking to myself wow what a bull trap they layed up there at 12:40 PM yesterday. Remember that "wildly bullish volume surge" you mentioned yesterday Harry ?
Funny how things turn out sometimes.
Because markets going up is bullish, and markets opening down is double bullish.
The luckiest break you got, Harry,was that Tokyo was closed for holiday yesterday and today. Otherwise that market would have opened with a downdraft that would have looked like the bobsled run at the Olympics just the way that the FTSE, the euro and the CDS markets opened and have traded today. Unlikely as it may seem, it appears ther are other markets in this world trade on the fundamentals (which suck globally and especially here in the US) and not at the behest of the algos at GS.
Once those two markets went in the tank, even the most knuckle-headed individual would have been looking for the exits and not even the Egregious Ben Bernanke could not have stopped a drop on the S&P.
If things are so great here, how come you are not trumpeting that it's gonna be the American consumer that pulls the world economy out of its doldrums?
As I commented yesterday, the NFP (hot or cold) will send US markets down sharply on Friday. Today begins at least a 10% correction.
@HW
You are sooooooo right. Please do not sell. Hold tight. Cramerica is back!
You wrote this at what time, Harry? 08:21? Is that EST?
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
Look at the S&P. Down from 1202 last night to 1188 at the open, and then plunged again at 1186 at 10:30 and it's still plummeting as I write this.
You lost your credibility a long time ago, Harry. I urge you to stop beating that dead horse.
How are playing this dip Harry? Let the Jr. Investors know...
Last week I pointed out technically, that S&P max pain would be 1175. We bounced off that area beautifully. This is your entry point.
Hope nobody takes you seriously and actually follows your advice . It's 1171.1 now and still dropping.
What was that entry point again ??
Keep forgetting to ask . . .
What's with this wrapping oneself in the flag?
You are such a TOOL!
Is Harry still long AAPL?, that's the real sign of capitulation.
Wait for ECB to come out with some stupid statement very soon
The Vix moves 15 % per day up or down, this isn't a healthy market folks.. prepare.
See The (Mis)Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward, by Benoît Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson;
The "Clap ON Clap OFF!" stock rally...
BTW, the old joke, "What's a Grecian Urn(Earn)?" can now be easily answered.
Yea that high velocity re-entry back into reality can really burn.
Don't wait .. call up Monex and buy some Silver , cash is trash..
Paper assets are just Dog Food... this house of cards is going to
fall sooner than later.... 200 oz. is good , 300 oz. is better..
paper or plastic...? ?
It's Tuesday right? That's a "risk off" day. No, wait. It's a "risk on" day, right? We're in Taurus, right? Let's see. When the Moon is in the seventh house...Jupiter aligns with Mars...
I'm more bullish than bearish mid-term as of right now, but yesterday's big up day defied logic even more so than usual lately. Today should be a -100 DJIA day. And maybe another after that. Then maybe a token up day. And then another decent-sized down day or 2...
Yes, exactly.
DOW down 1% at the start.
Break out your Mandelbratwurst sauce...
What about a concerted central bank FX-intervention to prop up the EUR, like the Plaza-accord back in 1985, just the other way round?
HarryWanKer.....the bagholder....
Bagholder? As I've said before, if we were to see a 10% correction off the high of 1219, I'd get out. Otherwise, I'll add on dips like this. AAPL at 261? I'll take that any day.
Beware bears of the economic numbers in a few minutes. Watch how fast we fly off these lows.
flew off the lows......too new lows.
"As I've said before"
You say a lot things, like the DOW would never go below 9000 ever, this was back in Oct 2008.
Anyone can say anything they want. You are free to say the Moon is made out of Cheese.
With short selling soon to be more or less illegal, any sell off is going to be gap-down. Stops will be useless in such a situation.
Massive surge. And almost as effective as the one in Iraq.
Harry, make sense on this, it keeps diving...
Yeah. As lizzy said, we flew off the lows, to new lows.
You're new to this whole "trading" thing, aren't you, Harry?
Have you ever noticed that the market can respond just as negatively to "good" economic news as it can to "bad"? Because the news was "not as good as expected" or generates "fears of rising interest rates." Or whatever the rationalization of the day may be.
I do not understand why you would think that good economic news would cause stocks to go up. That's not how the game is played, and good traders know that.
I love Harrys flights to fantasy. It reminds me of all the other fantasys folks still believe.
Like Bld 7 NY 911 or our corrupt sindicate government etc.
May it all fall so we can get on with rebuilding!
The Euro is not that weak . Remember it was below parity back in 2002. It could get to parity again just to be in its historical range. The germans etc have no reason to prop up the Euro at these levels. The only ones squacking will be the Asians - screw them - with their perpetually undervalued, manipulated currencies.
next japan will have its crisis - killing the Yen. Then the Chinese property bubble will blow sky high - Renminbi ? Whats that?
The old US Dollar , warts and all will reign supreme. Benny boy will print another Trillion or two just to rub it in a bit.
The Yen is a bit of a conundrum ... if Yen gets killed it will help their export and their market goes up. If Yen rises as carry trade unwinds their borrowing cost fall but so does their market because exporters get hit. I tell you, US and Japan worked out some deal ...
Factory Orders for April blew away estimates! See this is why you have to buy dips. Home Sales were very strong as well. If the data were telling us a different story, I'd be bearish. But when data is this strong, it's a time to buy dips.
You're right Harry. That must be why the Nasdaq is down 2.29% right now. It must be those strong home sales.
True. Tent cities are on the rise.
+10!
Harry, you seriously need to be able to read past headlines.
Correct. This is our last chance to get in before the rocket ride to 1300, then 1350 then 1575. For the love of John Borchers, buy, buy, buy!
Baghdad Harry...
You make us laugh.
Thank You
Damn Harry you make me misty eyed, your comment made me recall the salad days in back in 2000. Right about the same time of the year wasn't it... April-May-June 2000... good times those were. Just keep on buying those dip's Harry, you go boy.
Good lord, your cherry picked data is meaningless Harry. The banking system is insolvent by anyone's math. The EMU is imploding. Accounting stopped meaning anything long ago and you know it. Your numbers are based on other meaningless numbers which in turn were based on fraud.
You *know* this to be true.
Home sales? Harry, they weren't "strong". They were up from the dismal previous level. And even if they were strong, you're being completely intellectually dishonest by holding completely unequal datapoints up side-by-side and pretending they share the same relevance. With every post you miss the forest for the trees.
A fool and his money Harry. A fool and his money...
Shut up!
anecodotal on AAPL but I know 3 people who bought the new Ipad 3g and returned them after 2 days. Bad ergonomics and 3G slow as corn.
Plus I am sure they figured out how stupid the whole thing really is -- doesn't really do anything more than a phone but not a computer. I have to say while cool to look at I couldn't figure out what I'd do with it. Take it with me when I travel? Have to take a computer so don't want to carry it. Use it around the house? Too hard to use given it sits flat....just my two cents and I love my apple products.
Maybe because Apple products are crap? (brilliant marketing though I have to give them that)
When you build a product that has a failure rate of 20% to 30% (perhaps 40% including the 10% who don't know or care but just wanted to buy one so they "fit in") and it is not a concern to you as an organization, your profit margins have to be very, very high. When marketing and momentum become your only goal..........like I said, brilliant marketing.
I wouldn't necessarily agree with that but I do agree with brilliant marketing. I think the iPad is interesting technologically but lacks in usability-- ie, having a purpose not currently served.
EVERYHING that sells well is due to marketing-->whether it's an investment OR a product.
Probably a 90/10 split. A Harvard MBA is an example of a service that is 90% marketing, like the iPad, and the....drumroll....eToro Forex ads on this site. The real value is subject to interpretation.
The chaos right before anarchy.
....and...pride before the fall.
Wanker, you are 2 easy.
Decoupling working well.
Spain down 5%, Greece down 7% and Greek Banks down over 12%.
And Spanish PM making a bunch of statements about how strong Spain is, speculation unwarranted, Spain Portugal to recover.....yadda, yadda, yadda Of course the rumor on Spain has them seeking a $280B bailout (probably complete bullshit, we all Portugal is next).
Spain PM finish's comments with :10:22 05/04 SPAIN PM: 'COMPLETE MADNESS' IDEA THAT SPAIN WILL ASK AID.
Yeah, same as greece seeking aid, and LEH going bankrupt.
Yeah... Spain is strong... 20% unemployment and 10% deficit.
Spain down 5.4% today.
Si...Spain ees strong...strong like bull...
Bailouts for Portugal+Ireland+Italy+Greece+Spain=$3TRILLION+
Can you say "Global Synchronized Quantitative Easing and Currency Debasement Co-ordinated through the IMF"?
Yeah, Lizzy, this situation is fascinating to watch from the sidelines. It's clear from the increasing CDS spreads, that the bond market is going to force the IMF/EU to bail out the rest of the PIIGS. They cobbled together a $120B bailout for Greece. Can they come up with $1T for the rest?
HarryWanger - You strike me as very young! Anyway welcome to this crazy world. Big bear markets usually start when all the economic news is blindingly great ( just like big bull moves start when things look really bleak like last March). This economic recovery that is now occuring is the reason stocks went up in the last 6 months. Now the issue is what do the next six months look like. Was it a sugar high? Will Europe drag everything don? ( remember a small country like Thailand caused the Asian crisis of 1998). You pays yer money and you takes yer chances.
The Greek austerity measures have zero chance of succeeding, and the government will fail (and default). Just look at one measure - raising the average retirement age from 53 to 67. How could that possibly work? Ridiculous. What if someone is retired now and is 55, does that person have to go back to the workforce? Not a chance. What if current retireees are grandfathered in? Someone who is 50 is now told he has to work until he's 67 while his 50-something friends remained retired? Absolutely won't happen. The austerity measures were just a bunch of crazy lies and everyone knows it. Kicking the can down the road works for a while but trying to kick a 200 ton concrete block doesn't work so well (looks like it worked for one day). I need to go buy some more popcorn.
The Greek austerity measures have zero chance of succeeding
And the same goes for Ireland, although they get kudos for at least giving it an honest try.
Does anyone remember when Nassim Taleb said that everyone on the planet should short US treasuries. Doesn't look like a sure bet anymore. Shorting Euro on the other hand ...
Watch Taleb's YouTube video where he and Hendry talk about their black swan trading strategies. Taleb says he is betting on multiple black swan events: he mentions his short US treasuries bet, be he ALSO mentions others.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ2otZqmNKE
or this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8crFWYHlWw&feature=related
Now the Europeans have their big crisis. We had ours in 2008. Do they have the ability to pull off huge capers like TARP? Very doubtful. What they need is a big bazooka approach - have the ECB provide unlimited amounts of money in exchange for any and all crap. Then stuff the banks with so much excess reserves they are ready to puke. Then tell the accounting authorities and financial regulators to lay off for a good long while. No gonna happen.
Who's to say we still aren't out of the crisis? All I've seen is Helicopter Ben delaying the inevitable.
The ECB is philosophically handicapped. They think they are running a quasi gold standard.Unfortunately the world has moved on to vapor money - no standards. Can the chaste maiden survive in the bordello? Doubt it.
Philosophically handicapped? No. Practically handicapped. That's a "no, cant do" for them. Not a "no, wont do"
This is looking like a bloodbath. I don't know the volume numbers but I bet they are big. Small caps getting pummeled. I only have one foot in the water, but I can tell you this has me scared shitless - lots of panicked selling and it would not surprise me to see us finish down 400-500 pts for the day. I might buy some TZA if we get a rally off the lows just on the hunch that this will continue for multiple days.
Greece, you have company:
Breaking News: IMF asks the Romanian government to hike the flat tax from 16% to 20% and VAT from 19% to 24%. A 10% hike in taxes, combined.
I'm guessing we're running out of ink and paper.
But Romania is in the EU and not EMU, so it is not in the same eurozone company as Greece and PIIS. Nevertheless, I suspect that would have a tangental effect on the euro because of the big elephant in the room no one has really addressed yet: core EMU big banks with massive exposure to Eastern Europe as well as non-EMU big banks (Switzerland, Sweden)
It's all becoming the same around the globe....just tax the shit out of everything and everyone. Kill it all off.
linky please? I wanna repost
High volatility + Low volume = Sea Change in
the Market.
Anyone hear a bell ringing? How about a fat lady singing?
I hear the sound of a boot stomping on a human face --- forever.
Fat, singing zombies? Horrific!
HW....you're countertrend trading the short term. Very dangerous. Better have tight stops, and be happy with just a smidge of profit.
Bankers should set themselves on fire as an act of contrition.
Gold is getting up off the floor and dusting itself off...
Who wants to bet we take another leg down this afternoon? I can't get info on the volume but I am guessing it is heavy. What I am wondering is if traders are finally realizing the sovereign debt problem is serious and widespread. Would this signal the beginning of a bear market rather than just a correction? I mean, if money becomes worthless in Europe, the US can't be immune to it even if our economy is improving.
The impending USD rally I've warned about since 2009 has arrived. It may last for some time too ...
MARKET UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
As posted for ZH:
First, the doelarr "strength" to continue tightening the trading range of Euro/USD. The move to $1.30 will happen quick, in the next week or two. DXY to trade roughly at 81.5. Gold and silver will continue to make nominal highs against the Euro, as well as push back up to the nominal highs for the doelarr. Then there will be a move down to $1.25 Euro USD with the DXY staying in the 81.5 range. By late May, the pressure from the doelarr will have peaked, as the State budgets of Amererica will once again be addressed. California, will legalizing pot combine with personal investment by Walled Street in Hollywood save your ship?
4.21.10
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/open-thread-reader-not-making-any-payme...