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Robert Prechter's Glimpse Of The Apocalypse To Come
It is no secret that Robert Precther has long predicted a massive crash in the stock market. While we see no need to recap the events of the past two years culminating once again with the economic, financial and geopolitical crises of the past month, is the Elliott Wave Theorist finally about to be vindicated? Prechter's concern is that just as the record swing in the market on the way up caused a sense of false security, and, well, overall giddiness for lack of a better word, the crash will be accompanied by a variety of important adverse socio-behavioral demonstrations. While these can likely easily be anticipated by most, as they summarize pretty much what the first few days of the apocalypse would look like, here is a complete list of what Prechter expects on the way down, pulled from an October 2003 issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist.

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And he also likes:
Alabama -13
Oklahoma -19 and
Nebraska +6.5
You might bet them in a parlay, as well.
Prechter is such a dick. Anyone that pays for his "advice" is an absolute fool.
2003???
What happened to the more "uptodate" EWI theorist we used to get on here from time to time....? ;-)
I have to disagree with you there, I have made a great deal of money using the EW principal, and his (EW) advice has been a useful part of my overall strategy.
Hi, Mac. I don't disagree with you on EW and TA, short-term trading in small markets where all participants have the same information.
To extrapolate into larger historical/economic/cultural trends is laughable.
I really don't believe in the Elliot Wave theory, although I have studied it pretty closely. It is lot like reading tea leaves, and hard to know if you are really seeing a blip or one of the waves. That being said, I find his points above very interesting, particularly since they were written in 2003. MANY of the items on the list would have appeared irrational to many at the time, yet we see them playing out before our very eyes.
But here's the thing:
The market is still up considerably from where it was in 2003, and didn't lose 90% of it's value at all.
I like Prechter, and somewhat believe in EWI, but there's no admitting that this call was horribly wrong!
The market was lower than it is now then, and it raced up to 1500 whatever. Imagine if you took this advice in 2003 and went short. You'd be toast before it even got back to 2003 levels, and probably would have been stopped out with losses before the crash even happened.
So yeah, he makes good points, but you have to admit that they were WRONG at the time.
Such as:
George Bush will lose the 2004 elections in a landslide? We could have been so lucky!
Hillary Clinton as president? Nope.
You can go on and on...
Assuming that you actually read and understood the article, doubtful, you Turd are the fool, and your comment is ignorant. Let us hear your predictions.
Fuck off.
When I have a few minutes, I'll make 100 or so predictions. When, by chance, 40-50 come true, I'll proclaim myself a prophet and begin charging $500/year for my services.
You, sir, can be my inaugural subscriber.
I want in but only if I can get the early bird discount.
+100
Turd, you are the SHIT!
Have to disagree with you there. I've made - and in several cases got out in time to save - real green thanks to Prechter's folks.
They are not perfect and 2003-2007 was rough at times, but overall it is well worth the cost.
Again, this charlatan, Prechter, can't help but occasionally be correct...kind of like a broken clock. But to pay for his advice, especially in this new era of government-manipulated markets, is a fool's errand. Money down the drain.
He's straight out of the forecaster's playbook:
If you're going to make predictions, make a lot of them.
edit and spellcheck Mr.Turd,
you omitted Louisiana -16.
Prechter is dickless.Anyone that pays for his "advice" is an absolute tool.
Prechter said to go double short in October 2007, cover in March 2009 and to go double short in March 2010.
Thank God I didn't take this advice! Oh wait, I did...
Riding the biggest points drop in history double short sure does make me feel foolish. What would the smart play have been?
Ultimately the averages will drop HOW MANY PERCENT!?
And I thought I was bearish.
Is he selling financial advice or kevorkian kits?
bada boom........you owe me a keyboard...........
Hell, let's just shoot ourselves now, and get it over...........Hahahahahahaha
*snort*
Wait - is there a difference?
And on cue, the Euro hits 1.2150 and the FED starts the intervention again. Completely laughable.
The sheer enormity of the prechterisms is daunting!
He really needs an editor or something.
Awesome, Very accurate predictions.
Check the chart on stocks it remained bubblicious for last 20 years.
Just reverting to the mean will cause a huge drop on stocks, and usually the reversion over shoot to the downside, so it looks like stocks are a mania that should finish with a bang.
He's so BEARISH on PM's, I do not see why he would see them as a reccomendation as to the NEW monetary order, or in that class?.
While many may laugh at this list I will ask a simple question. Considering the economic and political policies in place not only in the US but around the world of denial of the current situation, where do people think we are going? And where does it end?
A careful read of the list outlines the logical progression of various problems that are not confronted and dealt with early, meaning now or over the last 10 years. An infection not treated becomes gangrene.
tis but a scratch... I'm invincible!
rot grows fractally
spreading within the core out
when do we compost?
I rely on Jim Sinclair to inform me:
Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006
1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.
3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.
No one gets the timing right on this stuff, so ignore anyone who says the cash is going to be on <insert date here>. Sinclair is one of the few that gets the details right.
http://jsmineset.com
I am Chumbawamba.
Very solid, my man... very solid.
Thanks for the post!
You are Chumbawamba!
the list is common sense extrapolated.
This is what baffles me as well. I don't understand the perpetual bullishness and everyone thinking things will just work out.
The denial is absolutely staggering........
For many the truth is too painful to accept, so they believe the untruth. Makes them feel good.
Hulbert says of Prechter "their newsletter has one of the best stock market timing records over the last two years of any that the Hulbert Financial Digest monitors."
but Prechter over the long haul? "the newsletter's timing advice for traders is in last place for performance over the last 20 years among all stock market timing strategies tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. "
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliott-wave-adviser-now-aggressively-bearish-2009-11-25
Pornography will become more bizarre? This guy really is an "uber" bear.
Pffft the SEC already watches tranny porn, just how bad can this get?
Dogs and cats doing "it"?
I was thinking more along the lines of bernanke with a bologna face breaking it off in geithner who is sporting the old bill gross handle bars and acting as the us taxpayer.
Based on a true story.
They're going to have to get pretty creative to make it more bizarre than it already is.
Not saying they can't, mind you.
Wow. I find the list a little over-optimistic. Anyone can handle that.
Me too. I'm thinking more along the lines of road warrior. Longterm anyway.
Or
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(1959_film)
You're not reading between the lines then.
I was digging his projections until I got to Politics where he is batting almost ZERO, he only got the move to socialism right so far. Guess he is not in the political front. His finance projections look solid so far.
I think he got the move to Dictatorships,dead on.
Folks talk about Socialism here, hell..it's Fascism( and almost completed).
I think this article will fit nicely here, since we're going all technicals and waves. It's worth the read, and I wish I could post some of the charts.
-Crab
The Looming Financial Holocaust, Massive Bearish Patterns Across Multiple Marketshttp://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19915.html
Snippet:
You may recall that day early in May when the Dow Jones Industrials mysteriously plunged by nearly 1000 points intraday. In an effort to placate unnerved investors, the media tried to pass it off as a technical glitch. What actually caused it was a wave of heavy selling caused by those who suddenly ?saw the writing on the wall?. If this drop was due to some technical glitch then why, after bouncing, did the market drop to even lower levels a week or two later?
CC,
That article made a hell of a lot of sense, at least to me.
bob's view looks better than dimitry's.
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/
People are finally waking up!! Don't pay these crooks one red cent. Stay in your home rent free for years and save the money. What a brilliant plan, just like I have been telling people to do. Why pay these greedy bastards anything. All they can do is take the house eventually, and be stuck with it. Your credit is already shot once you missed one payment, so might as well go all in.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Owners-Stop-Paying-Mortgage-nytimes-427692...
A relative of mine bought a house on the Central Coast of Ca. in 2002 and folded on it in 2006. He's just now getting the boot. 5+ years of rent free living!
Cool, since the Feds now OWN 96% of ALL FM/FM Mortgages, the fascist machine is moving FS Ahead.
I cannot believe more people cannot correlate what's been done, being done, to the real system being set up.
hemlines will fall? Holy shit!
This is quite disappointing at least to me, but according to the NY Times maxi-skirts are all the rage today:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/fashion/27MAXI.html
I prefer girls wearing micro-minis and hopefully the maxi-skirts trend will fade quickly.
K-wave winter vs. an inflationary printing press. Which one will win, or will the skirmish go on for quite some time? Either way, looks like we have a front row seat.
The ES is being blatantly pumped again. I think less trders are buying into this pump scheme.
One person's timing that was off by about 10 years.
I don't think things are going to be as pretty as he makes them out to be, the system will just crease to exist at some point, although most of the this resembles the 30s, that doesn't mean it will be exactly like it.
Mako, your nihilistic (sp?) view is completely ridiculous. The reason humans are in charge of this planet is that we are very adaptable. Just look at the slums of New Delhi or Bangladesh for examples of how the system never "ceases to exist" but that people somehow find a way to carry on. You consistently claim that food production and industrial activity will come to a dead stop when there is no historical evidence for this ever happening. When the barbarians sacked Rome the Romans that were left found a way to keep on living.
In the 30's there was more cohesion in the social fabric. People in a bind would go out and pick crops all day to earn just enough to live on. Most people had almost no debt. Neighbors helped each other out. People being helped APPRECIATED it. Storm came, but the anchor held. This time around, I dont think people will be willing to pick crops all day for $2. Could get ugly . . . real ugly.
My favorite: "Belief in magic will increase"
Belief in magic has been increasing exponentially for 65+ years, unless you have magic with unlimited power the system will collapse. The equation is calling the bluff now.
That does it... I'm sending my daughter to Hogwarts.
Be sure you select the correct support column at the train station. If not, she is going to get slobber-knockered!
No need to send them to Hogwarts, they believe the BS magic everyone is teaching them, no reason to go to special school.
Nope. I'm having her major in Defense Against the Dark Arts. Like you said, you can learn the BS-Magic stuff just about anywhere.
Wow, you are training her to fight Goldman Sachs themselves. What sacrifice. Assetman's daughter, I salute you.
Perhaps minor in HFT? Or derivatives, oh God, the dark pools of the shadow banking system, you may never see her again.
Now I am engaging in magical thinking. Silly of me. That anyone is training to fight these bastards is pure mythology and wishful thinking.
Gotta admit, a few good cops would be a fine thing.
If that were indeed the reality, she would volunteer to be on the front lines. Feisty and super smart, she is.
Derivatives = Potions
HFT = Divination
And no, the only way to beat these bastards is politically and through the rule of law. That will take a radical change in the electorate. And time.
Assetman,
I am starting to come around to your way of thinking. Not committed yet. I got pissed on a Palestine Isreal thread that folks were pushing one side or the other as "right." I was genuinely angry at folks for not seeing how anger begets anger and there is no end to it. Everyone will always want revenge for what was done to their side. Then I got it that if we do a shooting war over here to take over the government, the same kind of endless, senseless violence cycle will be set in motion. I'm so angry and feel so hopeless that sometimes I believe that the violent takeover thing is the only thing possible. If there were really some cops out there, and some rule changes, the current system should be able to work about as good as anything we could think of.
Meanwhile, there are some things so terrible, they need violent intervention to stop them. The question is, are we there yet in this country?
It is both my worst and best trait that I am so "open."
Assetman, I want you to be right. I come to this site to be a MsCreant because I am a little goodie two shoes with a lot of faith and hope, deep down inside. I survived some powerfully negative stuff with a good attitude, believing something else was possible even though it wasn't happening for me. My personal life is darn good right now (job stress, that is about it for the bad), I was right to believe that things could get better. To wake up to the enormity of the corruption is a real slap in the face. The betrayal makes me want to be bad and go get them, force them to restore justice.
My biggest rants come from being a mother. I did not push my son out into the world so that he could go shoot at people, be shot, or be a victim of corruption. It is too much work getting them set up in the world to see it all senselessly thrown away. It is not inevitable that we have to repeat the same mistakes over and over. We can do better than this.
With things in the world like the oil spill, our days to prove out this thesis may be numbered.
I always enjoy you. Don't let it go to your head, but you seem like someone I would actually vote for as a representative somewhere in the quagmire. If you chose to run, you would have McCreant Clan support!
Now just don't get into some scandal with Velobabe...
;-)
My biggest issue is that political change takes time... but that's where we start. Our (US) history is littered with courageous people who have stepped up for the greater good and (at least) set in motion change for improving our society-- I see the same thing happening again.
Still-- I am taken aback on how far politcally we have regressed. We are essentially down to 2 parties that are really of the same stripes, and their minions can be bought for suprisingly very little. As a result, the rule of law has been ridiculed and the ones with the money are getting the resultant windfalls. We've seen this picture before, and it never ends well.
I'm encouraged that American voters are catching on, as election results suggest several weeks ago. For example, I would have never thought Rand Paul would win by double digits in his race, let alone win... period. Sure, the electorate is lazy... but many get a sense of what is going on, they don't like it, and they want things to change. Little do they know the pain involved in getting things back on the right path... but that's where courageous leadership comes in.
I do lay awake at night thinking about finding leaders we can follow... only to have them taken out of the picture by the "anti-MsCreants". Think MLK... and that when all hell could break loose. That's the point where you and I fight for our own daughters and sons-- peacefully or not. We are not there yet... we aren't even at the point of peaceful demonstrations. But we are very close to the latter.
I'm flattered that you find me a repesentative material, but I've admittedly had enough marks in my past to make me pretty much unelectable. I'd piss too many people off, anyway... just let me open my big mouth! :)
But if you'd like another scandal for entertainment purposes, I'm game... so long as Velobabe is </tingle>. ;)
Tap 1 Forest and 1 Island to create $1T FRNs.
Tap economic hitmen to attack global economy for 20b economic hitpoints.
+1
Ha!
I reveal my trap, the 'the Greek Triple Trump' and a bursting housing bubble for 1.3 trillion in TARPoints and I get to search my deck for QE2!!
It certainly has in Congress and at the Federal Reserve.
That explains Global Warming.
If you sit by the river long enough you will see all of your enemies float by...
A broken clock is right twice a day...
I could go on, but doom and gloom is nothing more than doom and gloom... the guy is an idiot... how about... he give us a top 100 ways that we could fix the system that is broken... in a political format that is passable... I think that I would have more respect for him as an answer man, rather than just another "the sky is falling, the sky is falling!" fucking mouth piece...
"he give us a top 100 ways that we could fix the system that is broken"
There is no way of fixing the system humans have choosen. There is just expand or die.
Presently the system is on a 60-80 year cycle, give or take. The system is toast, that's just the way it is, his conclusions were early and some like how to fix are just absolutely wrong.
Elliot Wave does not work because it assumes the money supply is a constant. It isn't. You cannot possibly use any predictive chart patterns when the the very thing you are using to make the measurements is being massively dicked with. If we go back to a gold standard, it might work. But, until then, Prechter will continue to be as accurate as someone throwing darts.
Excellent point!
In addition, how accurate can it possibly be when one can just as easily be looking at charts for internationally-traded assets such as gold in other currencies? The charts in that case are NOT the same! It seems to me that all this charting is myopically dollar-centric in the first place, and then additionally as you say, inflation-blind.
Agreed. Also, there are real world tangible events that happen as they happen and affect things. Will they stop the oil spill? Will an asteroid hit? Will an unexpected technology breakthrough occur that solves the energy problem? There are many game changers that can happen, good and bad. When those game changers happen, that is what affects the markets. The wave business implies some sort of predestination mind set.
wow, lots of really generalized predictions with little specifics behind them. How exactly does one measure an "increase in the belief of magic"? Very little value to most of these.
Would magic include the Greenspan / Bernanke illusions?
So affordable housing will become increasingly difficult to come by while real estate values simultaneously fall more than in the 30's and 40's?
"What am I gonna do, just grind my feet on somebody's couch like it's just something to do? Come on, I got a little more sense than that. Yeah, I remember grinding my feet on Eddie's couch."
Yes, in general.
You don't see anyone bidding up houses right now do you, in general? The system is toast or more like soon to be burnt toast.
Mako, You can buy a DECENT home in Detroit right now for $10k.
Just the place to retire to, as long as you have .50's mounted in all windows.............
More like $10 or a pack of Marlboro lights + 3 Mc Doubles but you'll be at risk of the bulldozer plan.
Prechter used to predict that gold price would crash. He seems to have done a 180 on that; too late for his bankrupt followers.
In the ordinary course of events, perhaps Prechter would be on the mark.
He apparently underestimated Ben Bernanke's willingness and ability to print FRNs as much as possible, as fast as possible. The timing of all these predicted events is well off the mark... but I can certainly sympathize with that.
It seems he still believes still deflation will win out. I'm not sure the Fed will let that happen. At some point, though, the Fed will run out of all its available tools... then gold may be in collapse mode. I think we will be looking at another (new) monetary/currency regime before that time, though.
The only possible way you would be correct is if you can find me a human with unlimited power. Good luck with all that.
Actually I can... but you would need to be a believer.
I sit and scratch my head on this one over and over . . . deflationary depression or hyperinflationary depression, which comes first. All the money printing makes you think inflation, but if people can not take on more debt, there is no place for it to go or circulate. You would perhaps prepare differently for one, vs. the other. I dont know the answer.
Prechter has said many times that Gold is real money. And his 'bankrupt followers' can thank him for his prescient calls in 2007 at the top and in March 09 at the bottom.
Apocalypse DOW!
visual aid for the prechter's posting:
giant sinkhole swallows building
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmX0wUeZm1s
> "Pornography will become more bizarre"
Well... at least it's not *all* doom and gloom.
+1
It all depends on what you're used of :)
.....i've been waiting for ELLIOTT WAVE C for two years now .....nothing.
Do I feel a slight case of bad sentiment in this guys predictions?
This list is too pretentious, overambitious and sensationalistic to be taken seriously. The predictions range from the reasonable and relevant (buy and hold will go out of style, falling birth rates, increasing consumption of alcohol and anti-depressants) to the utterly bizarre, reminescent of the 'end of world' specials that the Weekly World News and other 'batboy/Nostradamus' tabloids churn out every year or so.
There are a couple gems in between, but there is simply too much evangelical-style fire and brimstone. This is the financial equivalent of big-tent preacher histrionics.
"Stock markets around the world will continue to fall. Ultimately, the averages will fall by over 90%."
I'm glad this is first, because it is the most obvious.
Take a look at any "bubble" chart you want (SouthSeas, Tulip, the 1900+ to present US debt to gdp twofer, etc...), and you will find that everyone of them ends the same way. Hell the concept of a fiat currency is a slow growing bubble, and when a bubble gets blown, no matter how slowly, it eventually pops. That's it, end of story, it always always pops.
It's popping, and it doesn't take Prechter, or anyone else to tell you so. See and gather the information, evaluate and scrutinize the information, make a decision based on the information, and act up on the decision.
What are you seeing? What are you feeling?
This is going to be biblical, figurative, literal, or metaphorical you take your pick.
The writing is on the wall, if you have read here much you probably already know that, do not freeze. DO NOT FREEZE.
You have the information, now move. Now is the time to be taking swift preparation mentally, physically, and spiritually. Live without now. You can fast a few days, take long walks with a loaded pack, quit any dependencies the withdrawal will be easier now, have a couple of months of food and toiletries, have the means to purify water, plant some potatos and watermelon in the yard for the summer, you can practice prayer and meditation if for no other reason than to learn to find a small place of separate peace and quiet in the times to come, acquire the means to provide for and defend your family.....
Don't freeze. Gather, Evaluate, Decide, Move;
Stand for what you believe in, in your finances, in your politics, and in your lives, and have the courage to live and die well without regret.
Do something, do anything, but don't freeze.
You are a good friend Crab Cake. You got your Zen on. Thanks for the reminder.
I think it will be surprisingly easy to give up the things we think are "essentials" - like going out to eat in restaurants, taking fancy vacations, getting a new car every 3-4 years, that fancy cellphone with the $100 per month data plan. I track my expenses pretty regularly, and I could pay the bills on about $2000 a month corresponding to an income of $36K per year. A few good books and Netflix on demand is pretty much all I need to entertain myself.
If everyone thought like this, I can think of at least one superstar company now enjoying great sales and market cap, which doesn't make one single product that can't be replaced by cheaper alternatives or done without altogether.
said eve to adam, "take a bite of this!"
In the last year, I have bought a pair of sheepskin booties. That's it. The old ones wore out and nothing else comes close. I cook from scratch, brioche to sushi. I garden. I can cook a meal right now from the 3 8x4 veggie beds I have. My grocery bills have been halved. Books from the local library, netflix movies and documentaries. I made pyjamas with the 600 thread count top sheet, the fitted one gave way. I deal strictly in cash, no bills.
This is an extremely dramatic change for me. It was not a conscious choice. A deeper wisdom took hold and guided me along. I am stunned how far this has taken me. I look at the stiletto heels in the closet and wonder, who was that person who bought those?
I've done what I can. I am not getting the gun though, I draw the line there!
Take the plunge. Get a gun. Walther P99 in 9mm would be a good starter.
Sounds great! I have a couple questions: Do you have any recent photos? - and - Are you willing to wear the stilettos to bed on occasion? ;)
On a sincere note: I'm glad to see more people taking action and sharing their successes with others. The lifestyle change was a daunting challenge at first, but once I committed I adapted quicker than I had imagined. I definitely enjoy my life more because of it. It's encouraging to know there are sensible people that will be around to help rebuild this country.
The most powerful changes come in an unknown form and so when the shitstorm starts I think it will pivot around something not in that list.
If you put credence in the list, the issue you will see, but May least expect in the USA, is Dictatorship.
The PDD's/EO's in place now, should curl your hair.I do not fear the survival issues, as long as you do not have to contend with mandates from illicit leadership.............
That is/will be our greatest enemy.........LOSS of personal freedoms,movement, and self determination............IMHO
These are valid predications, though I don't understand this:
Can anyone help me with that one?
Who is Shakespeare?
This could represent
Or Islamicized (if thats a word).
Read Mark Steyn's "America Alone" and you'll know what I mean.
Not mine own fears, nor the prophetic soul
2. Of the wide world dreaming on things to come,
3. Can yet the lease of my true love control,
4. Supposed as forfeit to a confined doom.
5. The mortal moon hath her eclipse endured,
6. And the sad augurs mock their own presage;
7. Incertainties now crown themselves assured,
8. And peace proclaims olives of endless age.
9. Now with the drops of this most balmy time,
10. My love looks fresh, and Death to me subscribes,
11. Since, spite of him, I'll live in this poor rhyme,
12. While he insults o'er dull and speechless tribes:
13. And thou in this shalt find thy monument,
14. When tyrants' crests and tombs of brass are spent.
I didn't know Bob could channel spirits.
Of course... in defense of things too come...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nokTjEdaUGg&feature=fvw
The larger demographic in the United States finds this person should be elevated...
The ignorant masses will get what they deserve and the rest of us have to suffer the rampant stupidity.
Let's put politics and the desire to see the "other team" get burnt aside for a moment. I don't understand why Sarah Palin has gotten the attention she has, other than the fact that Katie Couric & company love lampooning her for their political agenda, but I'd be a lot less worried about her than her alternative.
I mean if somehow Sarah & friends got into actual power, where would it leave us? We'd have a lot fewer of the race baiters and poverty pimps and authoritarian control freaks pushing infinite government.
From what I can tell, she basically wants to leave people the hell alone to earn a living, with a spoonful of her corny accent and folksy living thrown in. As far as intellect, I don't expect it in a politician, so no big loss there. If our biggest threat were her overzealously pushing social conventions, we'd have a much smaller threat than the Party of Government getting everyone addicted on Entitlement handouts and grabbing control over everything.
Hell, she wants to see every citizen exercising his 2nd Amendment rights. What's the worst a government could do after arming its people to the teeth? A lot less than what the ones disarming them will (and have) done...
Prechter. lol
Here's a thought. Complete the same exercise on any other analyst and, given enough history, the results will be similar. Burton Malkiel is reviled among traders, but when you look back on hard data, it's hard to argue with his conclusions. That's all I have to say about that.
"The Federal Reserve Chairman will be labeled a fool who is greatly responsible for the collapse" now where have I heard this before???
Your list got cut off (at least in my browser) at "Per capita consumption of alcohol...". Here's the rest:
not to mention that
"On a long-enough time frame,
the survival rate of everything drops to zero ..."
Where is the Asteroid?!! I want that Asteroid he promised!!
:)
But will my golf game ever improve?
Yes, once you learn to keep your head still.
Yes, but you must 'Be the Ball'.
How can I be the ball with you posting like that? By the way, it's Danny, sir.
Many of these work better if you start it with "I wish":
(I wish) Fannie and Freddie will be abolished
(I wish) The Fed would be discreditied
(I wish) they would quit making disney films
etc. etc.
I think you should keep it in your mind as a possible outcome....this is coming from a guy who said buy in the early '80 when the dow was at 700-800....when no one back then wanted to talk about stocks at all....he predicted Dow 4000 when it was at 700-800....people got angry and laughed...look at today's comments and make up your mind....
Of all the predictions given, he was most surprisingly correct with this one:
"Films will break new ground in horror, probably with themes that include suicide and torture."
"Suicide" has not become the popular theme it was back in the early 1970's, but "torture" became huge in movies starting with the "Saw" series in 2004 (the predictions are from 2003).
WOW! And have a nice day!
One could argue that many of his predictions are already happening. Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee Dee
That is what I was thinking while reading the list.
Nostraprechter is a broken clock that hasnt been right twice a decade
EW is astrology and TA/Cycles are astronomy.
Elliott Wave by far is the most accurate way to predict coming market events. But political power has even bigger influence over short term trends. If he can predict everything, he easily profits from trades, why bother sells advices to get rich?
been with Prechter for years, although no longer a sub. you should post his interim report from March 2003, "Remain 200% short.."
That said there's a lot of good advice here, and he works to provide useful trading information, although the wave system isn't much good for that. All of his long term predictions are coming true, which is a sobering thought. He is a smart guy without the wave system.
Socionomics just seems like bad psychology to me. I can turn most of his ideas around 180 and still make them work. Negative emotions cause people to buy stocks. (greed and avarice, something for nothing) think about it.
My theory being that the first great depression destroyed the global social network, people's acceptance of others and compassion. The result was world war II. Now they're doing it again, but society is much stronger this time, and maybe we won't let them do it this time. But it has nothing to do with some little bug inside our brains. We learn, and we get stronger.
The final step in his super cycle bear market crash is a rising dollar. We're there, the only real mistake BP made was underestimating the power of the Fed/Treasury to kick the can down the road.
Keep the time frame of reference in mind. This is going back to 2003 at the height of stockmarket and RE intoxication (in terms of momentum). Almost 7 years later, most of his financial predictions have come to fruition.
At first I was puzzled about the conflicting predictions between "Real Estate value will fall" and "Affordable housing will be difficult to come by", but put in context of credit availability, this may just be the case. Food was cheap during the great depression, yet people staved.
Regarding the flip flopping on gold and the Dollars place in the world, I can only guess that the global economy is turning out worse than he has predicted.
I think Mr. Prechter may have a slight negativity bias. <sarcasm off>
Jeeeeeezus...how does a man live with the burden of that vision of the future without having uninterrupted suicidal thoughts for the past 7-years?
Sounds like Mr. Prechter drank the China kool-aid. But then this is the age of the Third World Lovefest.
Thanks Tyler and Robert Prechter.
This guy is more accurate in geopolitical projections...
Professor Antonio Vazquez Alba
This year 2008, he has predicted that this year's winner for U.S. presidential election will be Hillary Clinton . Shockingly, he also predicted that Britney Spears will commit suicide.
see, he incorrectly predicted Hillary would win a race she WAS a candidate for.
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Is Bob still trying to conquer the crash? Amazing how loyal his followers are, like religious zealots being led down the path of salvation. -)
He called the 2007 top, he called the 2009 rally. He was early on the wave 3 call. The point is that credit is contracting, US broad money supply is still contracting at a 9.3% annualized pace. The bond market is far more powerful then any QE the FED can launch. The term structure of the bond market is concentrated at the short end meaning any reflation play or hyperinflation is very, very hard to pull off without destroying the international markets. Deflation allows the elites to fight another day. 3 years into the crash and we're still paying panic interventions, trillion dollar bailouts and all sorts of fluff from the powers that be. They are desperate, that should tell all bulls to be afraid, very afraid.
Wave 3 has begun it seems, and every bubble crashes. 90%+ declines from here are the historical norm. And no solar is not going to save the world, it's Energy Return on Energy Invested is too low to sustain civilization at 5:1, even hunter gatherer societies had a Net energy gain of 10:1. For more please refer to Professor Charles Hall at Syracuse University. I'm hopeful about Wind, it's the best alternative energy resource. The rest are a joke in comparison to what civilization is used to in the form of oil's energy density, transportability and storage.
he started paying for attention to the short term after he failed to call the 2003 bottom. he also said W Bush would not be reelected. He tends to underestimate the power of the Fed and the political class. Concerning energy he notes that technology will solve those problems (he mentions the sealed portable nuclear generator - www.hyperion.com -, and the natural gas or solar to hydrogen converters. there's a lot of stuff out there which doesn't fit into the grid system so it is ignored. we all know the grid loses about half the power you put into it.
i'll also predict that Prechters Elliottwave stock market charting method will disappear, but his socionomics website will continue, as eugenics, dna engineering and so on gather steam. why prozac if a biochip in your head would do the same thing?
I'm no Prechter follower, but his IQ is double or triple yours. Why don't you formally proclaim the end of the bull market so you can save some face? By the way, it wasn't easy to pick a sector that didn't participate in the biggest rally of recent memory during the last year or so- but Leo managed to do it with his "overweight solar" strategy that was about 6 years late.
I think Prechter can be interesting as a futurist. He should probably stick to finance and leave out the magic and porn predictions though. Maybe QE isn't so bad if the future would look like this otherwise. I wonder if he just scans headlines from old newspapers and puts them out as new predictions.
Yes, he's particularly clueless in the "adult" area viz. his prediction that Times Square will become X-rated again.
Yeah, people are gonna flock to pay admission to some sleazy, sticky floored Times Square theatre when they can get unlimited adult content, at home, for free on the internet.
Still patiently waiting for this one:
Yeah, I just don't understand why this dude gets so much airtime. As a quick example, his prediction that the stock market averages will fall by 90%. Apparently not understanding the concept of QE, and why stock market averages could just as easily increase 300,000%. Again, when somebody is that far off on something that obvious, it speaks to just a general lack of thought. It's almost like he just took some dude's theory, and decided to market it for personal gain, with no understanding of how the theory came to be and what it's limitations are. Call me crazy.
he said go long early '80...and predicted dow 4000.....when it was 700-800 points....just do not get angry.....opinions triggers the mind to think....nothing more nothing less....at least his advice kept a lot of peoples money save ("go cash in 2000")....instead of the believers in wall streets marketing machine....
Everyone really needs to start putting away this whole QE bullshit. Where in hell is it and how the fuck has it effected your purchasing power or your dollars value? Printing machine this and money out of thin air that. What a fucking load of garbage. The market's March 2009 rally was NOT based on QE but instead part of the natural psychology of the market. It always happens regardless of any "securitized" liquidity injections.
Even if and that's a major IF the FED threw real money into the market to artificially keep it buoyant, then they would have the Bond market to deal with which is far greater than the FED itself. Not going to happen.
So do you honestly think a guy like Prechter would not have thought about this improbable scenario? Even today he argues it's unlikely or would have little effect due to credit contraction rates exceeding the expansion.
couldn't agree more....+1.....
He's not all negativity. Disney will leave Times Square and it will become x-rated again is the best news I've heard in years...