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Robert Prechter's Glimpse Of The Apocalypse To Come
It is no secret that Robert Precther has long predicted a massive crash in the stock market. While we see no need to recap the events of the past two years culminating once again with the economic, financial and geopolitical crises of the past month, is the Elliott Wave Theorist finally about to be vindicated? Prechter's concern is that just as the record swing in the market on the way up caused a sense of false security, and, well, overall giddiness for lack of a better word, the crash will be accompanied by a variety of important adverse socio-behavioral demonstrations. While these can likely easily be anticipated by most, as they summarize pretty much what the first few days of the apocalypse would look like, here is a complete list of what Prechter expects on the way down, pulled from an October 2003 issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist.
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Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
_____
This shows the importance of talent.
Reading it, it doesn't sound funny, but, Bill Murray delivering it is hilarious.
PS - "That's a big twinkie"
I have to agree.
Predicting financial and economic behaviors is one thing.
To extrapolate into social trends and politics is downright moronic.
I just reduced all my buy orders by 10%. Call it a Prechter Hedge.
Tranny porn at the SEC is not surprising, you say? I think that proves his point, no?
Prechter does elicit an extreme emotional response from some people. I wonder why? Is it that his message is threatening to their conscious, or more likely subconscious world view. In my better moments when I react strongly to stimuli I try and ask myself "Why?".
Be that as it may there is not much in the list that others have not said recently in other situations and in different combinations. ZH recently had a short piece on Richard Russell where he said, to paraphrase, "Tell everyone you know to get out of the stock market NOW! You won't even be able to recognize the USA by the end of this year!". Is that not a synopsis view of what was presented above?
As a person employed in a technical trade I have learned to respect the "opinions" of 30 year journeymen over the hot shot views of the unwashed. And, I consider Prechter and Russell, among others, in the class of 30 year journeymen.
It would do well for some readers at this sight to at least ask themselves what Prechter and others like him are actually "seeing" in the world around them. Maybe they see something you don't see. Certainly Clive Maund, as referenced above, is seeing something very similar and I personally consider him, as well as Prechter, to be honest practioners of technical analysis - not that anyone is correct all the time - or even most of the time.
Finally, on a back country ski trip to Mt Shasta in northern California last weekend I had an opportunity to continue reading Philip Bobbitt's "The Shield of Achilles". After a cogent description of the evolution of the 20th century nation state from the princely states of Medieval Italy Bobbitt provides a description of the 21st century transformation of the nation state to the emerging "market state". Written in 2002 Bobbitt's predictions of what this process might look like are proving prescient. Bobbitt maintains the high intellectual tone which is a hallmark of his trade but reading in between the lines , at least for me, proved frightening. Simply stated his position appears to be this:
You are no longer a citizen of the nation state - you are a consumer in the market state. Under the market state the rights previously associated with citizenship are no longer binding. As such you will not be "kept" in any way, shape or form by the state (i.e., no socialized pensions, healthcare, govt funded education, unemployment insurance, food stamps, welfare, etc, etc, etc). Your basic freedom now is only to choose what you want to consume - if you have the $ to do it. If you do not have the necessary financial wherewithal to consume then you are no longer a consumer - YOU ARE A NOBODY!!
Those people, ever increasing in number, pushing the grocery carts around your town - they are the initial inhabitants of the NOBODY realm of the market state - and many will join them (some even being readers at this sight).
Prechter too dark?
Not by half!!!
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