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Robert Shiller Says Double Dip Imminent
In this week's Big Interview, the WSJ's Simon Constable interviews Robert Shiller who flat out says that an economic double dip may be "imminent." This compares to his earlier warning that he saw the chances of a double dip at over 50%. Guess that probability has now doubled. Notably, Shiller also believes that when the NBER looks back at the data, Q3 of this year will mark the beginning of the second dip of the recession. Ironically, since up to now the previous recession has never actually officially ended, very soon the NBER will merely confirm that the recession which started in December 2007, will have continued for three years, in what is possibly the longest recession on record. Furthermore, those looking to sell houses are advised not to listen to the interview, as the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index also added that he
is worried housing prices could decline for another five years. He
noted that Japan saw land prices decline for 15 consecutive years up to
2006. Following up on this week's weakest new home sales data in history this should probably not come as a big surprise to most. Also for bond fans, Shiller confirmed Rosenberg's view that bonds are not in a bubble. Hopefully Mr. Shiller bond prophecying skills in bonds are better than in houses, where it was mostly in hindsight in early 2007 when the bubble had already popped.
So sit back, grab some popcorn and listen to this 20 minute interview on how GDP is about to take a leg down, and buy some stocks (or not, the robots already front ran your decision before you even thought of it), cause in the new very inappropriately named normal one does the opposite of what one does in a normal world.
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my last posting of the playlists of the day. i hope y'all enjoyed them
limit down (a playlist): http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=39E281A11EE2D483
down the boulevard (a playlist): http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=D99EC6935E5AF32A
Thanks Steak.
Obviously he has not read the previous post on ZH that shows most of the FDR programs were a complete waste of money:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/refuting-myths-first-great-depression
Please professor just stick to your monthly housing index.
Christ almighty. He sounds like a complete boob. "Well, no. Not really. Maybe. I guess you could say that. Sure, why not? Yes. You betcha." Reminds of that CNBC soundtrack when they show the days highs and lows.
I just couldn't listen (past the teacher's aid thing) to this goof ball any longer. What we could do is fire every last ivy league economics, management and business professor and replace them with a successful small business owners.
+1
+1 I concur.
yup. brilliant. best plan yet. seriously.
and let's not stop there - replace the entire "armchair risk-taker" administration with small business owners while we're at it.
+ 1,000,000, + a disgraced Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman
Wow, look at the market react to that news. I think the Dow just gained 10 points on the news. The pump machine is in full vigor today.
The promise of QE2 is like Viagra to these poor, dried up old equities.
WE ARE IN UR MARKETS MAKING U HARD
Wow! Thanks, Bobby! I sure do wish that I had one of those PhDs.
Oh, wait! We never got out of the first dip and it went straight to a papered-over depression.
So, Bobby, you are full of shit!
Like most economists, he does an excellent job collecting data and showing the statistics to report on the economy. List most economists, his solutions for fixing the problems he's pointed out are at best preposterous.
Permit me to repost something I wrote yesterday while in a rare mood. I thought it was pretty funny:
[Economists] are always wrong, every time, unless they get it right on accident. A chicken is as good a predictor as these economistas. They have no backing in theory, no sound mathematics, no track record, no basis for predictions, and no support from data that does not exist in any case.
The only role they play is to make it sound like someone knows WTF is going on with our money supply, so that people who need constant reassurances in order to function on a daily basis (most of them) will go forward blindly, hoping for the best (which they do.)
Economics will be measured as the most profound and deleterious failure of Western thought ever, or at least since the codification of Papal Infallibility, to which economics actually owes a debt of parentage. Economics has enriched a few at the expense of the many and reinforced so long a list of lies and propaganda that it will take 500 years to erase from our racial memory.
If you are a working economist, kindly kill yourself at your earliest convenience.
Rant off.
Spend billions on teachers aides cause children "like attention."
Exactly what we need to take on more debt for ...giving attention to children!
How about we pay parents to give that attention to them too.
How about we just pay people for no reason. At least that is transparently a bad idea.
"Robert Shiller...flat out says that an economic double dip may be "imminent." "
Maybe? Maybe? Is that like could well, should likely, guess so, kinda or high probablity? May Be?
Tell ya' what. Anybody looking for long term secure employment, why don'tcha take the job of tellin' all the 20% unemployed, the folks in the tent cities and the families shfflin' into the bread kitchens that there was even ever a rebound in the first place.
Or get on some political hack's good side and have him or her get you a government gig.
Should be great for attracting more 'volunteers' to enter the forces with arms.
Tony Robbins gave him the call.
That only means one thing: dow 20000
And ya' know what else? You can clearly see that Bobby is right there in touch with his fellow sufferers, feeling the pain as the fireplace has no coal.
(Disturbing screams emanating from deep in head.)
ProctoPropagandaVision
HA! Great observation on the dark fireplace.
He's just calling Benny B Chicken for his QE2 plans.
KWOOAAAAT KWOAT KWOAT KWOOOOAAAAAT CHICKEN!!!
Let's hope BB takes the bait and lets our stock fly :)
Let their compensation be tied to their performance...wherein we little folk get to define performance.
There is (also) an oversupply of "fine institutions of higher learning". Watch what happens to the educated elite when that market correction occurs.
In all fairness, he is right about putting people to work doing something that is possible. Teachers aides, as silly as it sounds, is one possibility, and not nearly as ridiculous as some other 'make work' programs are going to get as it gradually begins to sink in that people are going to need something to do to avoid setting themselves up as suicide bombers, which is likely in the germination stages right now.
We are going to have roving bands of older teens and their older brothers and sisters who will have little left to lose in causing great disruption and general mayhem, small but agile forces for destruction aborning as the government dithers over what to do after their complicity in creating the global derivatives market bubble that has taken all the air it can before it bursts.
Here is the interesting one from CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38882451
Interesting, CNBC, and Fast Money in the same thought. Simply wow.
What, no BIG FIRE to go with the BIG INTERVIEW?
Now I'm pissed.
Light the damn fire bitchez!
You have to find canadians to get a fireside chat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTOWUg0zGFk
grind grind grind.....higher higher higher.
where it pops nobody knows.
The country is in the grips of a major change which is already well underway. The old solutions don't work anymore. Most talking heads are just screaming their heads off that we should repeat the failed policies only Bigger and Harder with even more belief in unicorns and praying nine times per day instead of only 5.
The road to hell has been paved by the prophets of ignorance is bliss: "deficits don't matter!", "shop till you drop", "every American should be in a home and placing their retirement funds in the stock market". But we still haven't fully faced up to the magnitude of the folly that these policies were. And until we do we're screwed.
ALL YOUR HOUSE ARE BELONG TO US!
The Dallas housing depression lasted...wait for it...15 years, before house prices started rising again.
My house (1978 build) is still worth less than it sold for in 1984.
"Uh uh we could have uh uh government hiring programs uh uh, student aids would lead to millions of jobs, uh uh internships" This guy is totally brain dead. I haven't been in the US since 2004, has it been taken over buy academics who fled russia when the curtain came down? WTF is this turkey talking about. Government jobs? Jesus fucking christ, what the fuck.
Yes; he sounded out of his depth.
"Robert Shiller who flat out says that an economic double dip may be "imminent."
What the hell does 'may be imminent' mean?
Shiller a tad smart for the fools at ZeroEdge.
That coming from a genius who fancies himself Larry Kudlow.
Seems like a nice gentleman, but I don't think he's capturing the depth of the problem. Debt, debt, debt. How will the world deal with it?
The term "Animal Spirits" is closely associated with John Maynard Keynes who used it in his 1936 book,
The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money to capture the idea that aggregate economic activity might be driven in part by waves of optimism or pessimism:
The last spontaneous urge I had was to defecate. Spontaneous urges to spend and gambling seem to be on the same continuum.
If people with decent engineering and basic industrial skills could teach young lads the rudiments of making and repairing and operating things other then a dream kitchen and get those people out of those useless business schools then it may have some merit.
I am sick of this feminized western world of focus groups and advertising seminars.
We need more of this again.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DB_QipIezo
We need to blow hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars on useless pet science projects?
Heh.
The best scientific returns can come out of projects that inspire the human soul - we have tried to be practical in our applied science projects and where has it got us - a slightly more fuel efficient engine !
Nixon scrapped a very promising nuclear thermal rocket project for peanuts to create a bastardised military/ civilian mutant called the Space Shuttle because it was thought by more convential minds to be more practical.
Building capital is about using the resources you have today to create better technology and know how for tomorrow.
Besides if NASA could accept risk to achieve a objective rather then be conservative and still kill people for no reward then they could send 1 man 1 way to Mars for little cost using the existing Boeing Delta iv heavy with a modified 1960s era j- 2x upper stage - this will inspire the kids of today under 10 the same way it inspired kids of the 1930s depression era to reach for the stars when they witnessed the barn storming antics of stunt fliers and Lindberghs crossing of the Atlantic.
The Luddite lack of ambition and lack of acceptance of risk within western masculinity is frightening in its scale and pinkness.
Risk is more then taking a put option on some financial instrument - if man cannot take worthwhile risks for the tribes benefit he will turn his instinct to more destructive vices - it is in our nature.
I was not personally acquianted with Robert (Shil)ler prior to this interview and it did start out well when he spoke of a disconnect with reality between himself and a colleague and the pocket pool folks playing with their personal J-holes in Wy. But when he called for max QE, job creation, and not backing off the spending, he lost all that respect. Regardless of the Name he's been handed from the CS Housing Index, this "man" does not know his stated subject.
Maybe that is because none of them do, so they plow on valiantly with uneducated minds, damning all who come before them and state that it is they that are the fools.
And who was this impass set up by? /hahahahahahahaha!/
Catch-22!
The only way to win the game is not to play.
His book:
Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
The tile says it all - guy is a new age shaman sitting round the campfire channeling animal spirits.
As I said -Anthropology, sociology, economics - total marketing BS
You live in hope, until your eyes are opened. Then you live in awareness, and choose your playground.
Met a friend this evening, who brought along an acquaintaince. The stance of the acquaintance, a 15 yr industry 'veteran' was the same old puffed up 'I struck the best deal out there with my new job, and got out from the old one while the getting was good'. Said acquaintance now working for the largest nationalised bank in the UK, RBS. I quizzed him on compensation structure that attracted him away from the hedge fund paradise he had been in.
Two things of note. The hedge fund paradise was rather the opposite. And the deal with RBS was all equity, but with a faster conversion rate into cash than any other house is paying currently. This tells me that his bet on the short term is for a recovery of distressed equity, assuming nothing gets worse. There was much justification of the upside leverage potential, and the hands off nature of government ownership, since 'they have an interest in getting the best price for the equity too'.
There was nothing of substance. Nothing indicating a wider viewpoint. And nothing indicating a willingness to consider the underlying macro environment which may well torpedo his future. But I suspect this was because it is simply too painful to consider as an option.
There is too much denial at present from those who have a vested interest in perpetuation of the past. I do not see this ending in an orderly manner, the collapse of 2008 and 'recovery' based on Keynesian tactics, has led to a groupthink of 'just one more year'.
Once these people's minds have cast off the shackles of former glories, and expectations accompanying them, can we make progress. But I see no sign yet. The next collapse will be brutal...
Compare and contrast - the second clip may be slightly unfair given its dramatic content but to hell with fairness - its much to late for that now........
www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0OurosNBFo
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVuh4AiZ-VY
I am with the guy that took the bullets.
Like your style.
Thank you, but the style lies with whoever constructed that second clip - it is one of the best edited pieces I have seen on Utube.
Indeed. Much truth by the end. Where are the statesmen now ?
Great work. I still say they should switch the nobel peace prize to a pound of C4 and teenage girls blown off leg.
Shame on you, TD!
Posting something that's not out of the fundamentalist Islamic, errrr fundamentalist Austrian school of economics.
And to think Shiller posited that the New Deal may have helped get us out of recession.
Unbelievable!
This guy can FOAD. I think I just got the most savage whiplash from this post. Just three days ago he was directly asked the question about a double dip, and he brushed it off saying while concerned it wasn't the consensus. At the 4 minute30 mark.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYuyxVaLbe4
I guess in three days he went from "concerned" to imminent.
It's all in his name: Just drop the "-er" from the end.
He has had his day in the sun and now he's just running on the left-over heat.
The term double dip is ridiculous. Massaged govt statistics. The recession (depression ?) has been on going at least since 2008.
If you want to look at Japan, look at the carry trade. The Jap banks didn't lend their free money into their own economy. They bought US TBonds. That went on for years with an average of about a 3% spread. That was the single biggest cause of the Jap depression.
Contradict me or dispute me if you like !
And I thought my ADD was bad. What a maroon.
"Tax cuts? I don't know. Gee. Maybe they should be part of business planning. They go into a lot of calculations. But who knows what rate to use?"
I guess behavioral economics is good cover for getting a business write-off for therapy sessions.
"I know. Let's try some make-work programs. Maybe we could dig ditches or break windows and repair them!"
Nice to know our best and brightest are paying up to be taught be Prof. Shiller's TA.